Soggust Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 4 hours ago, Tugboat said: i'm not sure you can even craft a trade that wouldn't just be goofy like swapping him for Mahomes or Josh Allen or something. I really don't want to keep bashing TL in two different threads, especially this one that I'm currently derailing, so I will simply agree to disagree that TL has Mahomes/Allen value. You're saying he's untradeable because they could threaten to keep Trevor and trade the 1.1 (if they hypothetically had it), but quite literally, the Bears could keep Fields and trade the 1.1 (and has been proposed extensively). The Bears are not forced to get rid of Fields, other than that you don't think he's shown enough. If I'm a desperate team, I'm offering a mid-late first and a third for Trevor. I think Fields easily gets a 2nd, personally, because even though he's not quite as good as TL, he has improved every year in the league despite some awful situations and I think some team will overpay for potential. And it seems we agree on that so really my hypothetical is irrelevant anyway. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 On 2/21/2024 at 1:20 PM, MKnight82 said: The biggest unknown variable for Field's value imo is the amount of teams who are in need of a new starting QB this offseason and whether that will drive up his price or not. I count a lot of teams that could use a new QB: Definite: 1. Washington 2. Patriots 3. Falcons 4 Vikings 5. Broncos 6. Raiders Maybes: 7. Giants 8. Saints 9. Seahawks 10. Steelers So maybe 10 teams? That is a lot. We have 3 probable first round QB prospects that could likely start right away (Williams, Maye and Daniels). Then in FA you have Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and maybe Tannehill (both of those looked washed though). After that you're talking about 2nd round QB prospects being overdrafted (McCarthy, Nix, Penix, etc.) or reclamation projects already in the league (Zac Wilson, Mac Jones, etc.). I would put Fields as the 5th most desirable outcome for any team this offseason after Williams, Mayes, Daniels and Cousins. That alone could drive his price up. There's always more teams than there are QBs going around. I don't think that's really up for debate. The problem is how does Justin Fields compare to their current QB situation? Teams like New England and Washington are probably far more likely to look to the draft to find their QB. Then you've got the teams in the QB market that likely miss out on a top QB prospect like NY Giants, Atlanta, Las Vegas, etc. But the bigger issue is how many of those teams are going to view Justin Fields as a clearly superior option than what they're currently got given Fields' presumptive price tag (SRP+). Are teams like NY Giants (Daniel Jones), Pittsburgh (Kenny Pickett), and Seattle (Gent Smith) going to be willing to give up a SRP to ensure they land Justin Fields and they view him as a big enough upgrade? Personally, I'd value Justin Fields as an opportunity cost. I'm not giving up a top 64 pick for him without a semi-significant piece coming back my way. A 3rd round pick I might be willing to part with depending on if I thought he was salvageable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 On 2/22/2024 at 1:45 PM, scar988 said: Pittsburgh isn't even in the market for Fields. I would agree. I think Russell Wilson is the guy to watch for that team if they go QB shopping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 On 2/21/2024 at 4:48 PM, Danger said: Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Vegas - These are all minor details that don't really matter in the grand scheme of things New England, this is incredibly valid, but Jerod Mayo might be old school and not want to run with a rookie. Could trade for Fields and draft MHJ. Washington isn't taking Fields when they're in line to get Maye who's WAY better. Cousins could stay, and I don't see them trading in the division. Denver - From everything I've heard Sean Payton and Russ' relationship is broken beyond repair, and no indications show that Russ will be back next year. Luke Getsy and Justin Fields clearly are a very bad fit for them. I can't imagine Pierce and Telesco can look at the mess that was the Bears' offense last year and say that it's going to be different in Las Vegas. Pittsburgh I could potentially see as a fit, but I think you'd be hard pressed to say he's a big enough upgrade over Kenny Pickett given the likely asking price (SRP+). Atlanta seems like an obvious fit. New England IMO could be a very surprise trade down from #3. I think they could trade down from #3 to somewhere in that 6 to 8 range, and take a WR there and then pivot and send either their SRP (with a pick returning to New England) or 3rd round pick to Chicago as part of a Justin Fields trade. But until they trade down, I'm anticipating them going with whoever Washington doesn't pick. As for Denver, I think the only QB they're going to be in on is McCarthy. I think they're more likely to roll with Stidham than trade for Fields. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melbourne 9er Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 The main issue for Fields and Chicago is that there are other options for QB needy teams in the 2nd/3rd round. Would you give up a 2nd pick for Fields and then have to pay him the next year, or get a Penix/Nix/Rattler on a 4 year, low cost deal. You're not going to pay a 2nd rounder for a rental that needs to be paid, especially not at QB, so you have to be sure that he will be the starter moving forward. I'm not sure if anyone believes that he will be. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky151 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 A team would only trade for Fields if they view him as starting material for them or they are looking for an heir to an elderly QB. Jets don't have a 2nd rounder but Rams conceivably could be interested. Vegas looks unlikely. I'm surprised Getsy got another OC job right away but he must have convinced Pierce that the stink was all on JF1. Denver is hosed if they don't get McCarthy. I could see Seattle taking Penix in round 2 if they hadn't traded the pick to the Giants. Otherwise, Penix and Nix and Rattler don't look like solutions to any team's QB problems. They look like developmental prospects. The main issue with Fields is turnovers. He should probably have fewer just from another year of experience and if he ends up somewhere with better coaching and supporting cast, I could easily see him increasing his yards and TDs per game by 25% and cutting his turnovers in half. That would be an upgrade over Ridder, AOC, Pickett, or Stidham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 16 hours ago, Soggust said: I really don't want to keep bashing TL in two different threads, especially this one that I'm currently derailing, so I will simply agree to disagree that TL has Mahomes/Allen value. You're saying he's untradeable because they could threaten to keep Trevor and trade the 1.1 (if they hypothetically had it), but quite literally, the Bears could keep Fields and trade the 1.1 (and has been proposed extensively). The Bears are not forced to get rid of Fields, other than that you don't think he's shown enough. If I'm a desperate team, I'm offering a mid-late first and a third for Trevor. I think Fields easily gets a 2nd, personally, because even though he's not quite as good as TL, he has improved every year in the league despite some awful situations and I think some team will overpay for potential. And it seems we agree on that so really my hypothetical is irrelevant anyway. I mean, it's clear we just don't see eye to eye on this. I'm not suggesting that Lawrence is "worth" Mahomes or Allen or whatever like that. That's absurd. I'm just illustrating a point about how the "value" difference is completely inappropriate to even bother comparing. Suggesting, it'd have to be something "completely goofy" that no other team would even consider, in order to entice the Jaguars to move off of him. They simply don't have a reason to move on from him. That makes him functionally "untouchable". That's it. There just is not a "reasonable" price where a Buyer + Seller would conceivably be able to come together on Lawrence because to the Jaguars, he's still valued like the potential long-term future of the Franchise with huge upside. Whereas other teams would be more inclined to just start fresh with something else, or unable or unwilling to meet the sort of exorbitant pricetag the Jaguars would ask. That's where the Fields situation is completely different and not really comparable at all. They absolutely have enough reason to move on. There are some contrarians who still think Fields could miraculously turn into a competent "franchise caliber" passer, but the overwhelming consensus is that he's just not a very good pure passer. He's athletic and maybe a team takes a flyer on trying to make that work. Maybe he has "enough" to get a team somewhere in the perfect situation where he can really use his legs to dramatically simplify the game for himself as a passer. It comes back to the fact that this Jacksonville situation is not nearly as good as i think you're making it out to be. Yet in spite of that...before Lawrence got injured, he was carrying an extremely mediocre team with serious flaws to the potential #1 Seed in the AFC. They absolutely imploded after he got injured (multiple times). That's enough to believe that he is in fact going to be a good enough QB to carry them to...a #1 Seed in the AFC or at least solidly into the playoffs and probably even with a home game. Fields...has not ever done anything like that. Nor has he taken that mediocre Bears team to the playoffs, much less won them a game there. At the end of the day that's an enormous, completely incomparable gulf in convincing "ability" and willingness or reasons to move on. Without even getting lost in the minutia of niche statistics under a microscope, winning games is ultimately the end-all, be-all of team building. If you have a guy good enough to do a lot of that, it's a lot easier to look past some ups and downs in a very young, developing quarterback. Not only that, but the Bears have the rare opportunity to do so with a top tier QB prospect of their choosing in the draft on top of that. It's no longer even a hypothetical or trade scenario. They have Pick #1. That really forces their hand on a Fields decision. It's one of those scenarios where...if you have any serious doubts it's really just time to move on. Sure, they could try to hang onto Fields if they can't get what they want for him...but that's an absolutely idiotic distraction to go into a season with. It also really isn't setting up Williams/Maye for success if you could be using Fields to leverage an extra 2nd/3rd round pick to help significantly improve the team right now. That's not something you dither around on. You make the decision. Either it's Fields, or it's not Fields. Period. And i can't see any way they could convince themselves that he's still going to be "The Guy" and decide not to bother with Williams/Maye/Daniels. But that's where we obviously just don't seem to view things the same way. You seem to be massively higher on Fields than i am, or even than the general consensus is. You also seem to be massively lower on Lawrence. To even think that they're in the same stratosphere of "situation" as young QBs and their general trajectory. Probably not ever going to be able to reconcile such a fundamental chasm in the way we view these two. I just really think it should be telling, that Jaguars fans aren't really questioning Lawrence at all...whereas Bears fans are mostly just questioning what they can actually get for Fields in trade, while moving on. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 27 minutes ago, sparky151 said: A team would only trade for Fields if they view him as starting material for them or they are looking for an heir to an elderly QB. Jets don't have a 2nd rounder but Rams conceivably could be interested. Vegas looks unlikely. I'm surprised Getsy got another OC job right away but he must have convinced Pierce that the stink was all on JF1. Denver is hosed if they don't get McCarthy. I could see Seattle taking Penix in round 2 if they hadn't traded the pick to the Giants. Otherwise, Penix and Nix and Rattler don't look like solutions to any team's QB problems. They look like developmental prospects. The main issue with Fields is turnovers. He should probably have fewer just from another year of experience and if he ends up somewhere with better coaching and supporting cast, I could easily see him increasing his yards and TDs per game by 25% and cutting his turnovers in half. That would be an upgrade over Ridder, AOC, Pickett, or Stidham. I could see the Jets as a bit of a "sneaky" team to go after Fields if not for a few key issues. The big caveat to that, is that they need all their picks pretty badly after investing all that in bringing AAron aboard in the first place. Which also means that like you said, they don't have the 2nd rounder that would help the Bears right now and can't really afford to spend that on a guy that they hope doesn't have to play anyway. I think the Jets options probably fall more in the Free Agency spectrum as "insurance". Probably a "reclamation project" or a "journeyman stopgap" who wants to basically bet against Rodgers health ahead of him. 😆 I don't see the Rams being a fit whatsoever. Fields is very much not a "McVay type" QB. He likes guys who can just efficiently work the system in a complex nuanced offense, and make those reads quickly and decisively. Which is precisely what Fields is particularly bad at doing. I'd wager it's probably similar for the Broncos and Payton having more of a decided preference for classic "pocket passers". Where even Russ' improvisational antics haven't jived at all with him. If they don't get McCarthy or go that direction...To me, someone like Sam Howell looks more like the sort of "project" Payton would prefer to work with and try to limit those turnovers but with the big pure passer upside to tame. A guy who likely ends up available if someone comes calling, for probably less than Fields anyway. Dirt cheap too, to offset the fallout from Russ being cut. I think it's hard to see a team trading for Fields for any reason other than thinking they'll run him out as their starter next year. I can't imagine many situations where it'd make sense to trade a Day2 pick for him, only to sit him for the year and back yourself into a bizarre corner trying to figure out how to negotiate a new deal based on what he's shown to date, plus a year of sitting on the bench. That's a disaster. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabbs4u Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) No one is trading for Fields to be thier #2 QB. To sit the bench only to then decide after the season barring injury to the starter, should we pay him in 2025? Just Fields is not Trey Lance. Falcon, Raider, Steeler, Bronco, Patriot or Commander if I had to guess? Edited February 25 by Nabbs4u 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 21 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said: No one is trading for Fields to be thier #2 QB. To sit the bench only to then decide after the season barring injury to the starter, should we pay him in 2025? Just Fields is not Trey Lance. Falcon, Raider, Steeler, Bronco, Patriot or Commander if I had to guess? Yeah. It just doesn't make any sense. If you're going with Fields, it's because you think he can start and make an impact sooner than whatever "2nd tier" options in the draft. And you absolutely need to have him starting right away, so you can figure out quickly if he's going to be good enough or not, and accordingly, what you're going to pay him. I think the market is narrower, or at least...different than that though. Broncos just doesn't make sense, he's not a Sean Payton type QB. Commanders makes no sense as they hold the 2nd pick and can just take whichever of Maye/Daniels/McCarthy they like best. As much as there is a dearth of great QB play around the league...there are only so many teams that i'd imagine would be viewing Fields as an immediate and clear upgrade. Or aren't tied into some other messy QB deal that they kind of have to roll with the punches on. The only team i could even see thinking about Fields as a "backup/insurance policy" is maybe the Colts. I think they've got some extra reason to be concerned about the durability of Richardson. He didn't make it 4 games into last season before he was on the shelf for the year. If Minshew walks, they'll probably want to have a quality Plan B in place to roll out if Richardson gets injured again. It'd also let them run the same sort of offense either way and tailor everything to that. But even then, i can't see them offering as much for what amounts to a "fallback plan", and there will probably at least be some team that gets left without a chair when the music stops and decides to pull the trigger on Fields. His contract situation makes him very much a "fail fast" sort of proposition though. To borrow a moneyball sort of term. He'll have one year to take a significant step forward somewhere else, or that team probably moves on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabbs4u Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, Tugboat said: I think the market is narrower, or at least...different than that though. Broncos just doesn't make sense, he's not a Sean Payton type QB. Commanders makes no sense as they hold the 2nd pick and can just take whichever of Maye/Daniels/McCarthy they like best. Payton is Egomaniac. He believes he can fix anyone. It's what he thought would occur with Wilson. While the Commanders seem like a long shot. I'm curious if Dan Quinn has the patience to wait a year or two for a Rookie to succeed? Not everyone has a Stroud type season. I "could see" them trading back for a Hual, using those picks to retool that entire team and or add more pieces for Fields/Howell like Harrison Jr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 11 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said: Payton is Egomaniac. He believes he can fix anyone. It's what he thought would occur with Wilson. While the Commanders seem like a long shot. I'm curious if Dan Quinn has the patience to wait a year or two for a Rookie to succeed? Not everyone has a Stroud type season. I "could see" them trading back for a Hual, using those picks to retool that entire team and or add more pieces for Fields/Howell like Harrison Jr. I don't think you're wrong in that Payton is a bit of an egomaniac. But i think he does still have a particular sort of thing that he looks for in a QB. Russ was a bit outside his normal comfort zone and well...it went disastrously. Payton's version of a "Running QB" is whatever the heck Taysom Hill is, as a part time gadget player. He likes pocket passers. He likes to believe that he can "fix" turnover problems and make a guy way more efficient, or at least boost the TD numbers to the point that they balance the INT ratio anyway. If they have that natural passing aptitude and "let it fly" mentality. Brees being the obvious shining example of it. But being tied to Romo as well. When he had to move on, it was "i can fix Jameis". He couldn't, but that's the sort of thing he looks for. Not Fields imo. It's where to me, Sam Howell reads like such an obvious Sean Payton project. Dude can throw the ball all over the yard and is absolutely willing to do so. He needs some structure to cut down on the negative plays, and as Payton specialized in with Brees...he clearly needs a Coach/Coordinator who will give him the sort of protection and throwing lanes over the middle that a shorter QB needs. But i really can't see a world where Payton would prefer to try to "fix" Fields over Howell, or just a rookie where he gets to start fresh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raidersedge Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 I keep hearing to Fields to the Raiders is still very much in play. Getsy talked him up big time at his presser. But who knows. I honestly rather just draft a rookie QB. Not trying to make Getsy sounds like the victim but after watching a lot of Fields, he looks pretty average at best as a passer. Definitely a frustrating player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 13 hours ago, Nabbs4u said: No one is trading for Fields to be thier #2 QB. To sit the bench only to then decide after the season barring injury to the starter, should we pay him in 2025? Just Fields is not Trey Lance. Falcon, Raider, Steeler, Bronco, Patriot or Commander if I had to guess? Commanders aren't in on him IMO. Why take a bum like Fields when you can just draft a really good QB prospect in Drake Maye who's going to be on a rookie contract for 3 more years than Fields and will likely be better by a decent margin. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 4 hours ago, raidersedge said: I keep hearing to Fields to the Raiders is still very much in play. Getsy talked him up big time at his presser. But who knows. I honestly rather just draft a rookie QB. Not trying to make Getsy sounds like the victim but after watching a lot of Fields, he looks pretty average at best as a passer. Definitely a frustrating player. And that may very well be true, but can you tell me definitely that Justin Fields is going to be more productive than Aiden O'Connell and a SRP? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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