What do you do if you're the Chicago Bears?

[CWood21]

18 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      Justin Fields?  I'd play hardball, insisting on a first round pick.  I won't get it now but I can try again in midseason after a few injuries.  With that salary, as Pearl Gray (who loves her paradoxes) would say, "he's not worth giving away."

And at that point, Fields might be worth a Day 3 pick at most.  Unless you're managing to strike a deal before the beginning of the season, you're effectively trading for Justin Fields' 5th year option season.  And my memory might be hazy, but the only time I remember a QB being traded away for a FRP post-draft (but before the next offseason) was Sam Bradford.  And I don't think it's debatable about who was more productive between he and Fields.

[CWood21]

8 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Kingsbury wanting Murray is why the Cards traded Rosen. But it has nothing to do with why the Dolphins gave a 2nd for him. That was simply because despite his poor play, the rest of the league (or at least the fins) though he'd been mishandled and they could get more from him. That's the same thesis that's happened numerous times in recent league history and would be the case with Fields in a potential trade. I'd also blame Tepper for the Panthers need to trade up and probably for their choice of Young over Stroud.

The difference is Josh Rosen had ONE year of bad play and still had 4 more years of team control (3 plus the 5th year team option).  Justin Fields has 3 years of bad play and he's got 2 years of team control (1 plus the 5th year team option).  Even if you think Fields is salvageable, you're pretty much trading for a very expensive QB in 2025.  Odds are Justin Fields isn't going to magically turn into CJ Stroud overnight.  Going back to the Rosen example, I'd imagine that the offers for Josh Rosen were probably pretty similar.  That late SRP/early 3rd round range was probably where his market was, and given that he only had 1 year in Arizona to prove himself and that Cardinals team was a disaster.  But Fields has had 2 different HCs and 2 different OCs and hasn't managed to consistently look good.  I'm not going to say never, but a SRP seems like a hefty price for someone who might be your starting QB.

12 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Fields has never been as bad as Rosen was in his season with the Cards or his season with the Dolphins. If the Bears didn't have the top pick, they be more likely to exercise Fields 5th year option than trade him or bring in a new starter. 

When your argument for Justin Fields being "good" is his running game, your argument falls very flat.  Justin Fields has been a bottom 3 QB his first 2 seasons in the league and was a bottom 6 QB this year.   His "best" NFL comparison is Lamar Jackson.  In Lamar's first 3 seasons, Jackson never completed less than 64% of his passes, had an INT/TO ratio of 2.8 while Justin Fields is at 1.3, and Fields' best ANY/A was worse than any of Jackson's worst.  If he was a middle-of-the pack passing QB, the Bears probably wouldn't even consider moving him.  But he's been a pretty consistent bottom 6 QB since he's been drafted.

18 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Various pundits have speculated the Steelers might give up their 1st rounder for Fields.

That'd be an astronomically stupid decision on Pittsburgh's behalf unless they're absolutely convinced that Fields is a massive upgrade over Kenny Pickett.  And coming from someone who doesn't think very highly of Kenny Pickett to begin with.

[Dr A W Niloc]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And at that point, Fields might be worth a Day 3 pick at most.  Unless you're managing to strike a deal before the beginning of the season, you're effectively trading for Justin Fields' 5th year option season.  And my memory might be hazy, but the only time I remember a QB being traded away for a FRP post-draft (but before the next offseason) was Sam Bradford.  And I don't think it's debatable about who was more productive between he and Fields.

My evaluation of Justin's actual objective worth may be close to yours but I can easily imagine a scenario:  Lamar Jackson goes down in September, surprising no one. DeCosta looks at his options, spits up a 1st to Chicago, and trades away Fields this time next year for a second rounder (or a first, if Fields plays much better for Baltimore than he has for Chicago).  Sort of like options trading on Wall Street. 

At worst, Fields doesn't cost a lot and could come in handy if his rookie replacement isn't going to be ready or if the Bears QB is the one to get injured.  (As much as I love the 2024 QB crop there's significant bust potential there--even, if not especially, with Caleb Williams.)

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

My evaluation of Justin's actual objective worth may be close to yours but I can easily imagine a scenario:  Lamar Jackson goes down in September, surprising no one. DeCosta looks at his options, spits up a 1st to Chicago, and trades away Fields this time next year for a second rounder (or a first, if Fields plays much better for Baltimore than he has for Chicago).  Sort of like options trading on Wall Street. 

At worst, Fields doesn't cost a lot and could come in handy if his rookie replacement isn't going to be ready or if the Bears QB is the one to get injured.  (As much as I love the 2024 QB crop there's significant bust potential there--even, if not especially, with Caleb Williams.)

I mean, there's a LOT of hope going on there.  You're hoping that a specific player has a season-ending injury, and that the Ravens feel that Justin Fields is the best guy to replace Lamar Jackson.  And assuming that he has success in an offensive system that he's likely going to be learning on the fly.  And that's assuming that someone is going to be willing to cough up a SRP when he suddenly plays well in Baltimore's system.  That's just a LOT of hope that Baltimore is going to recoup their value.

[Dr A W Niloc]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, there's a LOT of hope going on there.  You're hoping that a specific player has a season-ending injury, and that the Ravens feel that Justin Fields is the best guy to replace Lamar Jackson.  And assuming that he has success in an offensive system that he's likely going to be learning on the fly.  And that's assuming that someone is going to be willing to cough up a SRP when he suddenly plays well in Baltimore's system.  That's just a LOT of hope that Baltimore is going to recoup their value.

Just to be clear:  Baltimore may be the best example.  They are far from being the only example.  How many GMs would dread having to go most of the year with their backup QB [instead of Justin Fields]?

Incidentally, if he isn't moved in the off-season the same might be said of Jake Browning.

[SodeeWater_Cheezburger]

On 2/18/2024 at 8:31 PM, Dr A W Niloc said:

Just to be clear:  Baltimore may be the best example.  They are far from being the only example.  How many GMs would dread having to go most of the year with their backup QB [instead of Justin Fields]?

Incidentally, if he isn't moved in the off-season the same might be said of Jake Browning.

You're right on this.  Injuries happen every year.  Last year we saw Aaron Rodgers go down after only 4 plays with the Jets.  I'm sure not saying I would want to see it happen again, but what would the Jets do if Rodgers went down early again in 2024?  It would be an absolute disaster for them. 

As an owner, can you imagine trying to trot Zach Wilson out there again for 14-15 games and actually sell tickets?  In that situation, giving up a 2nd round pick for a guy like Justin Fields might make a lot of sense. 

This kind of thing isn't a rare situation in the NFL.

Edited February 21 by SodeeWater_Cheezburger

[scar988]

Falcons gonna end up sending a 2 for Fields early in FA and we'll all rejoice that this conversation can finally stop.

[Pugger]

On 2/17/2024 at 7:39 PM, Dr A W Niloc said:

      One of my favorite maxims is "Good teams trade up, bad teams trade down."

      28th in aggregate talent, third in cap space, I fill as many holes as I can before April 25th.  Then I decide whether or not a franchise QB and an Edger makes the Bears a contender for first in the tough NFC-North.

      If so I sit and take Caleb at #1.  Assuming Joe Alt is gone at #9 I take Latu.

      If the Bears are still a year away I trade down as far as I have to in order to land three firsts.  Meanwhile, I take a couple of flyers at QB on the weekend.

      Justin Fields?  I'd play hardball, insisting on a first round pick.  I won't get it now but I can try again in midseason after a few injuries.  With that salary, as Pearl Gray (who loves her paradoxes) would say, "he's not worth giving away."

Chicago can play hardball all they want but I can't see any other NFL team giving them a #1 pick for Fields.

[Danger]

I really think the more interesting thread right now would be

Where does Fields end up?

Pittsburgh
Atlanta

would seem like odds on favorites, but we could also see like

Las Vegas
Denver
New England

Be in on him
 

[Dr A W Niloc]

2 hours ago, Pugger said:

Chicago can play hardball all they want but I can't see any other NFL team giving them a #1 pick for Fields.

That's the point.  No one is going to offer a #1 until and unless they are desperate.  Happens every year. 

No takers?  Chicago ends up with the NFL's best backup/bridge QB with a $1,616,724 salary.  It's a very 1st world problem. 

The nightmare scenario would be letting Fields go for a song and then seeing Chicago's new, untested QB1 go down.

 

[scar988]

13 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

That's the point.  No one is going to offer a #1 until and unless they are desperate.  Happens every year. 

No takers?  Chicago ends up with the NFL's best backup/bridge QB with a $1,616,724 salary.  It's a very 1st world problem. 

The nightmare scenario would be letting Fields go for a song and then seeing Chicago's new, untested QB1 go down.

 

He has a $3.5M salary + Roster bonus. Fields will never get a 1st round pick back for him, btw. Never.

[lavar703]

40 minutes ago, Danger said:

I really think the more interesting thread right now would be

Where does Fields end up?

Pittsburgh
Atlanta

would seem like odds on favorites, but we could also see like

Las Vegas
Denver
New England

Be in on him
 

I think it ends up being a team totally out of left field like the Giants or something. Just one nobody ever expected. 

[AZ_Eaglesfan]

47 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

That's the point.  No one is going to offer a #1 until and unless they are desperate.  Happens every year. 

No takers?  Chicago ends up with the NFL's best backup/bridge QB with a $1,616,724 salary.  It's a very 1st world problem. 

The nightmare scenario would be letting Fields go for a song and then seeing Chicago's new, untested QB1 go down.

 

If Fields and Caleb are on the Bears roster after the draft has ended that is an absolute nightmare scenario for the Bears lmfao. Complete and total misuse of resources for a team that desperately needs talent.

If the Bears are drafting Caleb the only thing they can do is take the best offer available. They will likely get a day 2 pick and maybe some change depending on how many teams are interested and what the asking price is. A first isn't going to be on the table with what Fields has shown. QB needy teams would likely just take a shot on a guy in the draft over giving up a first for Fields.

[MKnight82]

The biggest unknown variable for Field's value imo is the amount of teams who are in need of a new starting QB this offseason and whether that will drive up his price or not. I count a lot of teams that could use a new QB: 

Definite: 

1. Washington

2. Patriots

3. Falcons

4 Vikings

5. Broncos

6. Raiders

 

Maybes: 

7. Giants

8. Saints

9. Seahawks

10. Steelers

 

So maybe 10 teams? That is a lot. We have 3 probable first round QB prospects that could likely start right away (Williams, Maye and Daniels). Then in FA you have Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and maybe Tannehill (both of those looked washed though). After that you're talking about 2nd round QB prospects being overdrafted (McCarthy, Nix, Penix, etc.) or reclamation projects already in the league (Zac Wilson, Mac Jones, etc.). I would put Fields as the 5th most desirable outcome for any team this offseason after Williams, Mayes, Daniels and Cousins. That alone could drive his price up. 

[sparky151]

1 hour ago, MKnight82 said:

The biggest unknown variable for Field's value imo is the amount of teams who are in need of a new starting QB this offseason and whether that will drive up his price or not. I count a lot of teams that could use a new QB: 

Definite: 

1. Washington

2. Patriots

3. Falcons

4 Vikings

5. Broncos

6. Raiders

 

Maybes: 

7. Giants

8. Saints

9. Seahawks

10. Steelers

 

So maybe 10 teams? That is a lot. We have 3 probable first round QB prospects that could likely start right away (Williams, Maye and Daniels). Then in FA you have Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and maybe Tannehill (both of those looked washed though). After that you're talking about 2nd round QB prospects being overdrafted (McCarthy, Nix, Penix, etc.) or reclamation projects already in the league (Zac Wilson, Mac Jones, etc.). I would put Fields as the 5th most desirable outcome for any team this offseason after Williams, Mayes, Daniels and Cousins. That alone could drive his price up. 

Good post. And of course if the Bears draft a QB, that reduces the supply by 1. 

I could see Fields possibly fetching a late 1st if the Bears also send a third with him.