3.91 - Ty'Ron Hopper [LB ; Mizzou]

[ReasonablySober]

Gute clearly wanted more bodies at linebacker and safety and that's fine, but once they filled the 2nd linebacker spot with Cooper, taking another off ball linebacker a round later just became really lousy asset management. Third round is still early enough to reasonably hope to add an impact player at a premium position. At the very least there were options. 

[HighCalebR]

1 minute ago, ReasonablySober said:

Gute clearly wanted more bodies at linebacker and safety and that's fine, but once they filled the 2nd linebacker spot with Cooper, taking another off ball linebacker a round later just became really lousy asset management. Third round is still early enough to reasonably hope to add an impact player at a premium position. At the very least there were options. 

Like whom? Between Williams and Hopper who's the impact guy?

[spilltray]

Just now, ReasonablySober said:

Gute clearly wanted more bodies at linebacker and safety and that's fine, but once they filled the 2nd linebacker spot with Cooper, taking another off ball linebacker a round later just became really lousy asset management. Third round is still early enough to reasonably hope to add an impact player at a premium position. At the very least there were options. 

I think LB#3 has a pretty decent chance to be an impact position. Yes 4-3 is a subpackage, but if you have the bodies that can run and cover you can use it more.

[ReasonablySober]

14 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

Like whom? Between Williams and Hopper who's the impact guy?

I was a fan of Jarrian Jones (CB), Theo Johnson (TE), Troy Franklin (WR), Jalyx Hunt (DE), Tez Walker (WR), and Mason McCormick (OL). They all went around the time the Packers took Hopper and Williams. 

Again, I don't mind doubling up at linebacker at safety. Doing it so soon after Cooper and Bullard is what annoys me. 

That said, who the hell knows anything? Those guys could bust and Hopper and/or Williams could be gems. *shrugs*

[HighCalebR]

3 minutes ago, ReasonablySober said:

I was a fan of Jarrian Jones (CB), Theo Johnson (TE), Troy Franklin (WR), Jalyx Hunt (DE), Tez Walker (WR), and Mason McCormick (OL). They all went around the time the Packers took Hopper and Williams. 

Again, I don't mind doubling up at linebacker at safety. Doing it so soon after Cooper and Bullard is what annoys me. 

That said, who the hell knows anything? Those guys could bust and Hopper and/or Williams could be gems. *shrugs*

WRs, CBs, DEs and TEs who would be further from PT than Hopper. McCormick maybe but the depth at line probably made them feel better than finding the athlete at ILB like Hopper.

Dunno how it can be claimed to be lousy asset management by not going for premium impact players when 4-6 players you mentioned are non premium players who's impact year 1 would hopefully be just as minimal. And the other 2 guys are at positions of strengths on the roster.

We can disagree with Gutes assessment of the player, sure but I don't think the staff is as low on Hopper as the board is.

[PossibleCabbage]

51 minutes ago, ReasonablySober said:

I was a fan of Jarrian Jones (CB), Theo Johnson (TE), Troy Franklin (WR), Jalyx Hunt (DE), Tez Walker (WR), and Mason McCormick (OL). They all went around the time the Packers took Hopper and Williams. 

Just ignoring the players, it would be significantly harder to find non-ST snaps for a CB, WR, or DL on this team than for a rookie LB just because of who they automatically have in front of them.  I imagine at least part of the logic was "we like Jalyx Hunt, but he would be competing for DE6 snaps."

[incognito_man]

3 hours ago, ReasonablySober said:

Third round is still early enough to reasonably hope to add an impact player at a premium position.

Applying this logic, there should be no RBs, S, TE or ILBs drafted in the first 3 rounds?

[skibrett15]

 

[packfanfb]

42 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Applying this logic, there should be no RBs, S, TE or ILBs drafted in the first 3 rounds?

I think it was just more surprise than anything that we double-dipped at OBLB in the first 3 rounds. At least that was my reaction. Was actually on the phone with a friend during Round 3 who said "you guys are probably going to take Payton Wilson here" and I responded with something like there was no chance in hell Gutey was going to take two OBLB by the end of day 2. Just completely shocked me overall, regardless of the specific player. 

[packfanfb]

3 hours ago, HighCalebR said:

WRs, CBs, DEs and TEs who would be further from PT than Hopper. McCormick maybe but the depth at line probably made them feel better than finding the athlete at ILB like Hopper.

Dunno how it can be claimed to be lousy asset management by not going for premium impact players when 4-6 players you mentioned are non premium players who's impact year 1 would hopefully be just as minimal. And the other 2 guys are at positions of strengths on the roster.

We can disagree with Gutes assessment of the player, sure but I don't think the staff is as low on Hopper as the board is.

Frankly, regardless of how Gute feels about the CB room, I was pretty surprised Jarrian Jones wasn't the pick there. Much higher RAS player versus Hopper, more premium position and it's not like our CB room doesn't have questions (especially on the injury front). Jones was also a top 30 guy (like Hopper). The only thing I can think of there is that the Packers must of saw Jones as a slot-only guy, which perhaps diminished his value a little, especially if Bullard is going to see slot snaps.  

[craig]

5 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

...There were minimal snaps available/needs for this team going in, ... so Gute went and filled what he deemed important depth roles in rounds 3-5. Unless Hopper is a star, this pick won't really move the needle much for the Packers over the next 4 years. 

Yes, this is fair and accurate.  Not super likely that Hopper will be a 2nd-contract guy with us, or a star.  Depth/need pick, who will have opportunity because of the need.  

Tangents:  

1. Drafting for "need" is normally used as pejorative.  "Competition" sounds better, and "opportunity" sounds better.  "Opportunity to help our team" is Gute-speak.  I pretty much take Gute at his word, that they follow their board and don't intentionally take lesser players in order to meet need, but that they do use need and opportunity as a tiebreaker.  Agree with Cabbage and HighC, there is much more opportunity for Hopper to play, given the position and the need.  As Maz said, chance to earn LB3 by next year. 
2. "Move the needle", "impact", and "anti-awful."  Sober wants impact; Raymond notes "really won't move the needle".  I'd love to hit on an impact guy who moves the needle, for sure.  But I kinda feel like "move the needle" implies somebody who's going to move the needle well above average.  Improving from 50th-percentile average to 75th-percentile asset, that's obviously moving the needle.  But I think there is also needle-moving between awful and average.  10th-percentile to 45th percentile, that's a needle move too?   In the National Injury League, some Packer seasons have been undermined by having some relatively awful players going.  [Alex Green as #1 RB.  MacMillian and Jennings as starting safeties.  Alex Light starting at LT.  Billy Turner and Dennis Kelly starting at LT/RT in playoff loss to San Fran.  Darius Shepherd starting at WR.  Ty Sommers and Oren Burks.]   So, just a shout-out to having some depth at every group, so that next-man-up can be ideally be anti-awful.  Hopefully Hopper becomes solid, perhaps this year and beyond, so that you aren't awful at ILB when Quay or Cooper get hurt or need a rest.  

 

[HokieHigh]

Over/under hoppers career compared to abdul hodge

[Mazrimiv]

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

Applying this logic, there should be no RBs, S, TE or ILBs drafted in the first 3 rounds?

or IOL

[HighCalebR]

45 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Frankly, regardless of how Gute feels about the CB room, I was pretty surprised Jarrian Jones wasn't the pick there. Much higher RAS player versus Hopper, more premium position and it's not like our CB room doesn't have questions (especially on the injury front). Jones was also a top 30 guy (like Hopper). The only thing I can think of there is that the Packers must of saw Jones as a slot-only guy, which perhaps diminished his value a little, especially if Bullard is going to see slot snaps.  

But it's not regardless of how he feels about that room. If he thinks Nixon, and Bullard + depth guy can man the slot and he thinks he has 3 capable guys outside that'd leave him has 5th corner-ish when we only had 3 total ilbs.

Tyron would also be a much better ras player without testing agility. Where I think he underperformed anyways.  Guy looks smoother than that on the field I think.

[PossibleCabbage]

I think the whole "draft for need" vs. "draft for value" dilemma is a false dichotomy that basically only exists on the fan/media side of things.  An actual NFL team will simply try to figure out which player they think is likely to improve their team the most on one of several time scales.  Sometimes this is a really good player at a position where you weren't looking for help, but often this is a player who you simply think would be better than someone else on the current depth chart.

Going into the draft there were a few positions where they could clearly find snaps this year:
-OL6: we are probably good with the starting 5, but if anybody is unavailable then we get problems.  This bit us against SF in the playoffs last year.
- RB2: if RB1 is unavailable, AJ Dillon is not exactly a difference maker.  This bit us in the early part of last season.
- You need a second safety on the field, you can do better than AJJ.
- You need a second stack LB on the field, you can do better than Isaiah McDuffie
- You might want a third stack LB on the field, since there are times you will play "base"defense- you can maybe do better than Isaiah McDuffie, who is a FA after this season.

This is basically their entire day 1 and day 2 haul.