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3.91 - Ty'Ron Hopper [LB ; Mizzou]


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From Brugler's summary (he had Hopper valued at RD5)

If he plays rotational snaps behind Quay and Cooper along with being a core ST player, I can live with that.

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A two-year starter at Missouri, Hopper played Will linebacker in defensive coordinator Blake Baker’s 4-2-5 base scheme. After struggling to find a regular role at Florida, he transferred and averaged 5.8 tackles per game in two seasons with Missouri, earning All-SEC honors as a senior. With his initial quickness and rangy speed, Hopper aggressively responds to ball carriers and pass catchers and closes in a hurry. However, he lacks the play strength desired for an every-down role and needs to improve his block awareness. Overall, Hopper needs to be more consistent at the point of attack and as a finisher, but he is a fast-flowing athlete with the pursuit skills and blitzing talent to find a home in the NFL. He projects as a run-and-chase rotational linebacker with the skill set for special teams.

Edited by Mazrimiv
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10 hours ago, oldmansmell said:

I disagree pretty vehemently about this. I really don't think you can find an elite edge, tackle, QB, or CB in this range without significant risk. . 

Yeah, I don't get the original comment here.... Positional value is all well and good for the first round (or top-ish part of the first round) but The point is to get good players. You have to draft non-premium positions somewhere, and I think past pick 20 or 25 is where you start doing disregarding the "positional value."

Edited by Mr Bad Example
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5 hours ago, Mr Bad Example said:

Yeah, I don't get the original comment here.... Positional value is all well and good for the first round (or top-ish part of the first round) but The point is to get good players. You have to draft non-premium positions somewhere, and I think past pick 20 or 25 is where you start doing disregarding the "positional value."

I hold fast at 33 is when you say screw the value.

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I mean, essentially the value of the draft is that rookies are cheaper than free agents.  Sometimes this manifests in things like "there simply aren't high quality QBs, pass rushers, left tackles, etc. available in free agency for any cost" but most everything else hits the market sometime, even if you don't like what it costs.  Like the total value of Graham Barton's contract in Tampa will be about what they were paying Ryan Jensen per season before.

But once you get out of the first round, all the contracts become pretty cheap, so the opportunity cost is mostly about the value of the pick in terms of "is there a different pick that is likely to improve the roster more. than this pick."  Like what Hopper gets paid will be roughly what Dillard gets paid if he makes the roster, and that was a street free agent signed for the veteran minimum.

I think at some point also it becomes less about "need" and more about "how full is the room, how many snaps could this guy get?".  Like it's conceivable that the Packers had a higher grade on a Troy Franklin or a Tez Walker than they did on Hopper, but the 4th LB is going to have more of an opportunity to contribute on this team than the 7th WR.

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For what it is worth Walter Football had Hooper as the 10th best ILB but within a tier of linebackers ranked from 5th to 10th, where they expected them all to go from the 3rd to 5th rounds. 

Those 5 were:
Marist Liufau - went to Dallas pick 87 (3rd)
Tyrice Knight - went to the Seahawks pick 118 (4th)
J.D. Bertrand - went to Falcons pick 143 (5th)
Jeremiah Trotter Jr. - went to Philly pick 155 (5th)
Jackson Sirmon - went to the Jets UDFA

Hopper came to us with pick 91

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Little less of a shock after seeing this, kind of...

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This was a reach to me.  While I like the aggression and the size/length, he just misses so much in the game.

Zero issue with him in the 5'th.  

But as it stands now, I have little doubt that this cements the Turd Round for GB.  

It's cheese only for that round from now on.  

 

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Posted (edited)

This was the biggest headscratcher of the draft, which means he's also the guy I'm most excited to see in camp. We know he's athletic, has good size, was a team captain on a pretty good defense in the SEC. Whatever else Gute saw in him, I want to see it too.

Edited by Lodestar
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Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, Lodestar said:

This was the biggest headscratcher of the draft, which means he's also the guy I'm most excited to see in camp. We know he's athletic, has good size, was a team captain on a pretty good defense in the SEC. Whatever else Gute saw in him, I want to see it too.

He scrapes under blocks well. Strong enough to take on bigger blockers. Needs to work getting off the bigger guys for sure. Closes fast. Fluid mover. Hunts carriers. 

Special teams captain type year one and a solid will backup (very thin there, also took a couple S/ilb capable type safeties)with the tools to develop into a starter if things click.. if you really want to take special teams serious you have to invest some assets towards it.

Edited by HighCalebR
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Posted (edited)

I'm still trying to make sense of this pick.

It's eerily similar to Jean-Charles pick. No stand out athletic measurables that Gute likes and yet for some reason like the player enough to draft him.

I filtered the test and measurement data for linebackers. I kept it simple, 6'1"+ and 225lbs+

This reduced to 11 draftable prospects. Hopper was still on the list. I had a quick look at hand size, arm length, wingspan and it was very noticeable that Hopper was one of the worst in all of these categories.

I then filtered their 40 time to be below 4.55 seconds to ensure Cooper would still be on the list. It only reduced the list a little to 8 draftable prospects. Hopper was one of the few that dropped out with 4.68 seconds. His time is not good compared to the other 8 prospects.

At first glace, Hopper's measurables weren't great, his testing was ok. What was it about him that made him a 3rd rounder? His tape must've been amazing or he interviewed really well. Maybe its the non measurable part of scouting...his smarts, his personality that makes him a good fit for us. I seem to recall after the draft the Packers made it a point to say it's important that their linebackers being able to run.....doesn't seem to jive.

The Packers are obsessed with team captains. Hopper is one which is a clue in itself but the two players drafted after Hooper, Cedric Gray and Tommy Eichenberg, are also team captains.

Maybe it's an age thing. Hopper (23) is younger than Eichenberg (23.3) but Gray is significantly younger (21.5)

I was able to get the other testing data in Brugler's THE BEAST guide to help us. Hopper's did better in VJ, BJ, SS than Cedric Gray but he beats Hopper in the 3C. But the difference between the two is actually very minor. Eichenberg beats Hopper in the SS and 3C.

I watched his highlights searching for clues. He plays similar to Cooper I suppose but it's not the sort of tape that makes you go Mmmmm! Interesting! I had a better reaction to Gray and Eichenberg tape and yet we chose Hopper over these two.

If Gute does what Gute does.....Cedric Gray would've been the draft pick.

Makes me feel like the Defensive Coordinator has it written into his contract that after the 2nd round he can choose 1 player in the draft he likes within the same tier. It could explain the strange picks under Barry such as Jean-Charles. Definitely not a Gute-like pick that one.

Edited by Chili
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On 4/29/2024 at 9:26 AM, vegas492 said:

This was a reach to me.  While I like the aggression and the size/length, he just misses so much in the game.

Zero issue with him in the 5'th.  

But as it stands now, I have little doubt that this cements the Turd Round for GB.  

It's cheese only for that round from now on.  

 

I wasn't too keen at the time with the Hopper or Evan Williams picks .. dozen or more guys on the board I'd have rather had.  We just have to trust that the Packers know what they are doing.  They were looking for certain traits it seems and we just have to hope they picked the right guys.  No guarantee that anyone I wanted would have been a betting fit long-term.

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2 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

Oh, for sure all 7 of them are pissed. but 59 in general is just so ****.

I wonder if players research this kind of stuff beyond just picking their favorite numbers available.  “Who TF is Brad Jones?”

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