BDL 2024 Week 1: Cuba Smugglers @ Lancaster Werewolves

[RedGold]

BDL 2024 Week  1

Match:  Cuba Smugglers @ Lancaster Werewolves

Away Owner:    @MD4L

Home Owner:   @rackcs @MikeT14

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

Edited September 8 by RedGold

[RedGold]

Cuba

QB: Trevor Lawrence
RB: Travis Etienne
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Puka Nacua
WR: Zay Flowers
TE: Noah Fant
LT: Charles Cross
LG: Elgton Jenkins
C - Garrett Bradbury
RG: Ezra Cleveland
RT: Darnell Wright

Flex: Taysom Hill
RB: Gus Edwards
RB: Zach Charbonnet 
TE: Gerald Everett
WR: Jakobi Meyers 
WR: Tyler Lockett
FB: Kyle Juscyzk
FB: Patrick Ricard

Edge: Joey Bosa
DT: Zach Sieler
NT: Grover Stewart
Edge: Rashan Gary
WLB: Jahlani Tavai 
MLB: Bobby Okereke
RCB: Martin Emerson
FS: Xavier McKinney
SS: Justin Simmons
NCB: Alontae Taylor
LCB: Denzel Ward

Edge: Lukas Van Ness
DT: Maliek Collins
DT: Karl Brooks
Edge: Josh Uche
WLB: Foye Oluokun
SLB/EDGE: Andrew Van Ginkel
Slot CB/S: Chauncey Gardner Johnson
Boundary CB: Kelee Ringo

 

 

 

 

 

Lancaster

QB: Jalen Hurts
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs
WR: Ja’Marr Chase (Q)
WR: Josh Reynolds
WR: Keon Coleman
TE: Chig Okonkwo
LT: Braxton Jones
LG: Damien Lewis
C : Creed Humphrey
RG: Sam Cosmi
RT: Jawaan Taylor

RB: David Montgomery
RB: Tyler Allgeier
WR: Dyami Brown
WR: Malachi Corley
WR: Skyy Moore
TE: Tucker Kraft
OL: Ikem Ekwonu
OL: Steve Avila

DE: T.J. Watt
DT: Kenny Clark
DT: Justin Madubuike
DE: Keion White
LB: Fred Warner
LB: Frankie Luvu
CB: Jalen Ramsey (Q)
CB: Tyrique Stevenson
CB: Mike Hilton
FS: Minkah Fitzpatrick
SS: Vonn Bell

DL: Dre’Mont Jones
EDGE: Jared Verse
INT: Tedarrell Slaton
LB: Willie Gay Jr. (Q)
CB: Brandon Stephens
CB: Kool-Aid McKinstry
S: Ji’Ayir Brown
S: Quandre Diggs

Edited September 8 by RedGold

[RedGold]

Cuba

Intro: New season, new beginnings, new start. This weekend play a Lancaster team we envision will be expecting us to avenge losing to them last season. In reality, last years chapter is closed. We are simply looking to perform well and beat an excellent team led by a tremendous duo of Racks and Mike.

Offense

Last year we did not get an opportunity to utilize Trevor Lawrence to his fullest ability. This year we have built the offense around him and will bring forth a pass friendly offense dictated on quick passes and vertical targets as that is where Trevor is at his best. We expect Jefferson to deal with Ramsey and safety help (presumably Minkah) and will remain intent on making him the most target player of the day. Jefferson will be used in the intermediate area and frequently moved around the formation to give Lawrence keys on coverage looks. We will use bunch formations and have Jefferson as the main motion man to diagnose coverages. Jefferson will likely be bracketed so we welcome Lancaster’s attempt to shadow and keep deep help with a player who’s moving across the formation AND how that affects Puka and Flowers coverage.

Travis Etienne will remain the primary ball carrier in this game and will finish with the most touches. We want to use Etienne’s speed on the edge in the early going to keep Lancaster’s LBs aware of his elite speed. This will also help on stretch attempts to get Etienne’s speed as a threat for TJ Watt to avoid over pursuing rushing the passer. We have a couple of screens for Trevor to get Etienne involved in the receiving game and lead blockers for him to get going. Etienne will receive about 60% of the snaps and get touches on close to 40% of those plays (approx 20). Gus Edwards will play another 30% and function as our thumper. He’s not a flashy performer but is an excellent short down back and clock killer who can offer a different skill set from Etienne. We like bringing him in with Kyle Juszcyk and occasionally Patrick Ricard for establishing the run up the middle. Edwards is also our goal line back. 

Flowers and Puka are back to maximize the receiver usage for us. Puka will get the second highest target share and function as the shorter target (think: hit, flats, slants). We like the idea of bunching Puka and Jefferson frequently in the second half (after we get awareness of Lancaster’s coverage schemes) and locating Puka on more intermediate routes with Jefferson running stretch routes (think: Drag, cross concepts). Puka will also get his targets on stacks with Flowers in the early going. Flowers is the deep target and scramble drill guy for Lawrence. Flowers will get a couple touches on screens and a reverse to get his elusive skill set manufactured touches. Flowers will have drives where he used as a decoy but we will be intentional on getting him the ball approximately 5-7 touches even if it includes a rush or two. We will include Flowers on a couple deep shots and he’ll likely be the receipent of any Taysom Hill targets….

And Taysom Hill will absolutely have a role. On about 5-7 snaps on 4th and short or redzone situations (writers note: NOT in any end game situation) where we’ll run formations with Ricard, Juszcyk, and Edwards in the backfield to run some RPO sets with Hill decide whether to test the edge, use the power himself or possibly throw a pass. Hill will follow Ricard on some power concepts. These formations are not to deceive; This is old school bully football and we want to utilize our new looks accordingly since Lancaster will not have any inclusion of this in their writeup.

OL notes: Darnell Wright will get chip help from Noah Fant. Fant’s snap share is 80%, he’ll do a lot of chipping before running routes. Elgton Jenkins will do a lot of work in isolation as well work to have Ezra Cleveland and Garrett Bradbury working together. There will be about 10 snaps with two TE sets (Everett and Fant) with one helping against Watt. We’ll have a couple misdirection blocks with Ricard motioning pre snaps before helping the interior lineman against Clark and Madubuike.

 

 

Defense

Lancaster made a massive offense addition bringing in arguably the leagues best WR in Ja’Marr Chase to their roster. As of today he has practiced only prior to the game week and looks like he’ll be on some sort of snap count prior to week 1. This means we can lock into Lancaster’s backfield as they will be the primary focus point for our defense. Hurts and Gibbs will be the two individuals we want to control and Gibbs ability remains person number one to target. We will have some all out blitzes from the second level this week. We anticipate Lancaster looking to take advantage of our LBs in coverage and will counter that with blitzes that bring Simmons closer to the middle of the field. This also helps bring pressure on Gibbs at the LOS. Gibbs is still talented enough to break a couple of those runs but the overall concepts should lead to a couple stops and longer down and distances which could lead to this offense having a couple long distance opportunities on 3rd down which helps our defense.

For whatever snaps Chase does play, we will have Denzel Ward shadowing him. This does not mean we’re going super man coverage but provided Chase isn’t in the slot, Ward will have cover 3 responsibility and the safety opposite Chase (McKinney or Simmons) will carry his coverage if it means he’s running crossing patterns. If Lancaster chooses to run some twists off that assignments, we may concede that as the Chase awareness is at a high regardless of his snap rate. 

We will have Ward with some snaps in the slot regardless of coverage of Chase or not. Kelee Ringo and Emerson can hold the boundary when we want to go pass friendly.

Our primary formation will be in 4-2-5 and will feature different rotations in the slot. Ward will play in the slot on passing downs when we have our safeties playing deep (15%). We will have CGJ play the slot on some occasions when we want to run cover 2. Taylor is the starting slot and serves as our primary cover 3 and man coverage look when we keep Ward outside.

We have some 7 man fronts with 3 LBs in this game. They will be Oluokun-Okereke-Tavai sets.

As for our DL, we are excited to utilize our new flexible sets on the edge. Bosa and Gary will hold the snaps on the edge with Grover Stewart getting the start for his saviness against the run. On passing downs we will move Bosa inside and run stunts with him and Gary together. Brooks will get a plenty of snaps spelling Stewart for pass rush purposes. We will have Ginkel on the edge serving as a spy for Hurts on pass rush downs with stunts from two EDGE defenders opposite (Brooks will serve as the solo INT). We know Hurts has the speed to test the edge so we will run some psycho sets (1-4-6) with one DL and an assortment of rushers while having Hurts guess who’s coming. Even if he guesses correctly, we will have Ginkel AND/OR Uche serving as a spy and can match his athleticism on such instances.

Lastly, we want to avoid having two people playing deep at safety in this matchup. McKinney and Simmons will take turns roving down from safety to handle Hurts rushing ability if/when he makes to out of the first wave rushers. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lancaster

The Lancaster-Cuba rivalry has been intense the past few seasons with these matchups always being important come playoff time. We have no doubt that this season will be the same and so this team has been preparing for this game all offseason. Cuba is one of our favorite teams to matchup against - not only because of the talent, but seeing Trevor on the other side of the field is always fun. This is a big game for both sides so we’re pulling out all of the stops here on both offense and defense to come away with a Week 1 victory. The mind games start from the coin toss where we send out Skyy Moore…

Lancaster Offense:

M: R/P and Formations expectations:
>50% Pass to <40% run (45% inside to 55% outside)
20 pers - 15%
21 pers - 15%
11/12 pers - 65%
10 pers - 5%

Gibbs - 85%/Montgomery 60%/Alleghier spot remaining

The biggest shift you see above in our offense is to a lot more 11 and 12 personnel. With our additions to our receiving corps, we feel confident in opening the field up more than last season. 

On formations with 2 WRs, you’d expect to see Chase and Josh Reynolds. While Reynolds might not be an ideal threat, he is a savvy veteran with elite WR blocking skills - the biggest reason we brought him in. 3 WR sets where run and pass options are still available, expect to see Chase, Reynolds, and Coleman with Coleman and Reynolds rotating the slot position at times. This will help mask some of our tendencies while also making Coleman a threat from the slot and Reynolds able to block from it occasionally. 

As far as running backs, expect a similar approach as the Lions in real life with Montgomery and Gibbs. In one back sets, Montgomery will appear more in more obvious running downs, and Gibbs will see the majority of snaps. On two RB formations, expect to see movement from Gibbs into the flat, slants, and opposite slots for chances to a) see if Cuba is running man or zone and b) create mismatch opportunities for Hurts to exploit. 

Expect to see a split of Okonkwo and Kraft in formations based on need and personnel. You even might see a wrinkle of Kraft in at FB - the extra blocker would be nice, as well as having another player available out of the backfield. 

For the o-line, expect focus to be on Bosa and Gary. With arguably one of the best centers in the game in Creed, along with two very solid to good guards, we feel comfortable making sure there is help on the outside and let the inside guys work to contain. A heavy dose of RPOs and play actions take time to set up, and we will need it. I also expect to see a lot of Van Ginkel coming after Hurts and attacking the line. We will need to have Okonkwo and Kraft ready to chip him away. Our RB(s) will be tasked with this as well. 

As always, expect us to control the clock and utilize quick routes for easy gains and limiting turnovers. Gibbs, Montgomery, and to some extent Allgeier should tally upwards of 25 carries combined (and that doesn’t include anything Hurts does). When this opens up the playaction, it will give opportunities to Chase do his thing. If Ward is following Chase around, I expect them to give help as well. Mismatch one on one situations should be exploited and option 1. But in situations where there is help to Chase and they are bracketing him or double covering, Hurts will need to look to the opposite side. This is good opportunities for Gibbs to work that side of the field along with Coleman out of the slot or in 1 on 1 matchups on the outside. Coleman would see a lot of quick slants where he can overpower or outplay the opposite coverage. It’ll be tougher for Cuba to allocate the resources necessary to cover these weapons with multiple shadows. Look for situations, especially if Coleman is moved to the outside and Corley is bumped into the slot a handful of times. On more obvious passing downs, you might see Brown sub in for a more vertical threat to open the field more. We would be flooding the zone in this situation. 

Lancaster Defense:
Cuba’s offense isn’t an easy one to defend against as they’ve got plenty of offensive weapons to go around. Given enough time, Lawrence will be able to find someone and make a play. Our goal this week will be to get after the QB and force him into making mistakes. Led by TJ Watt, we think our pass rush will be able to play strong and force some errors by Trevor Lawrence.

This game is going to start up front with the battle in the trenches. We want to really throw things at Lawrence to keep him rattled and uncomfortable throughout the game. We like this matchup for us as we’ve got some nice depth pieces on the DL to help us get after the QB. In particular we want to attack the young tackles on this team. We want to hit the OL with zone blitzes, stunts, and other trickery to pressure Lawrence. Verse starts on the bench this week but will sub in plenty to add some pass rush juice, particularly on obvious passing downs. Dre’Mont Jones will sub in both inside and outside. Tedarrell Slaton will sub in on obvious run downs. Lawrence is talented and will make some plays, but he’s also prone to making mistakes and so we want to push that.

Cuba has one of the toughest receiving corps to defend against in the BDL but we really like our secondary and think they can hold up, especially with Lawrence having less time to throw and an unstable pocket to throw from. We’ll be running both man and zone coverages today. Expect a lot of cover 3 zones as we zone blitz, with the outside corners and Minkah Fitzpatrick largely handling the deep zones. When playing man coverage, we will be utilizing 2 high safety looks with the two safeties largely covering the two halves of the deep parts of the field. We want to have most of the focus of the secondary on Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua. In man coverage, Jalen Ramsey will handle the former and Tyrique Stevenson will handle the latter. Mike Hilton will man the slot against Jakobi Meyers. Fred Warner will key in on Etienne this game in man coverage, with Luvu taking the tight end. When Cuba takes Meyers off the field for Juszczyk, Hilton will sub out for Willie Gay Jr., with Luvu then taking Juszczyk and Gay taking the tight end. We know that Cuba’s weapons will make some plays for sure, but we think our secondary is equipped to slow them down enough for the pass rush to make things happen.

Edited September 8 by RedGold

[vikes635]

Cuba Smugglers 28 Lancaster Werewolves 30

Cuba's key player stats

T. Lawrence 333 pass yds 3 TD's 2 INT 

T. Etiene 17 car 72 yds 3 rec 11yds FL

J. Jefferson 10 rec 164 yds 2 TD's 

P. Nacua 4 rec 36yd, Z. Flowers 6 rec 82 yds TD

J. Bosa 1 sack, 1 TFL

G. Stewart 1 TFL

R. Gary 2 TFL

J. Simmons 11 solo

D. Ward INT

Lancaster's key player stats

J. Hurts 55 rush yds, 155 pass yds 1 ru TD 2 Pass TD 1 INT

J. Gibbs 1 rec 7 yd 10 car 48 yds, D. Montgomery 10 car 72 yds

J. Chase 4 rec 82yds and a TD

K. Coleman 5 rec 48 yds TD

J. Verse, D. Jones, J. Madubuike, each had 1 sack 

T.J. Watt 1 sack, 1 pass break up, 1 TFL

K. White 1 sack 1 Force Fumble

F. Warner 9 solo tkls 1 INT

 Fitzpatrick INT

[Blue]

Lancaster has some really impressive front 7 talent here and with neither team’s offensive players doing a ton Week 1, it was tempting to go off my initial gut reaction looking at lineups. But I think Cuba came to play hard with great gameplans on both sides of the ball, and that combined with the Jefferson factor pushes Cuba into a late lead for me.

[InjuredReserve]

This is a match-up that I could see myself voting on differently every couple of weeks. 

Keys for Me:

- I trust both of these defenses to get pressure on the opposing QB and I don't think is an easy day for either group and both secondaries are in place to make this a potential turnover heavy contest.

- Lancaster has a few critical players (Jalen Hurts and Ja'Marr Chase) in this matchup that I came away from opening weekend feeling like they weren't playing up to typical form in the early season. I am going to deviate from Vike's prediction and I think Hurts early turnovers IRL translate to this game as well (especially given Cuba's safeties).

- Agree with Blue above that there is a Justin Jefferson factor and with me expecting a slow start from Chase in this game (after this offseason) I am giving the playmaking edge and win to Cuba this week (but I am excited to revisit this matchup in the future).

[Scoundrel]

This is tough for me based on two factors… Chase looked off, maybe it was somewhat him, somewhat Burrow, somewhat the oline and somewhat Gonzo… but he was not the same dominating presence. On the other side Puka re aggravated an injury he had coming in so his impact in this game should be considered minimal/equal to the amount of time he was on the field Sunday night.

[EaglesPeteC]

TJ Watt could wreck this game. 
 

But the Lawerence to Jefferson and Puka connections I think will make enough plays to pull it out. 

[bcb1213]

Unfortunately for Cuba, Puka reaggravated a preseason an injury he came into the game with so that has to be taken into consideration.  With him being a large part of the passing attack that definitely hurts.  I'm also not a fan of trying to run an RPO out of the wishbone as theirs really only one wideout for the defense to key on.  Then the we aren't going to have Ward cover chase in the slot while simultaneously saying hes going to play in the slot whether chase lines up there or not is also confusing.

On the opposite side putting Coleman in the slot is frankly, not wise.  He doesn't do that , not is he a polished enough route runner to think he can(45 boundary snaps week one and 0 slot snaps irl  back this up).  Probably better to just mix Chase in the slot rotation as he does that in real life.  

In the end, this was a very difficult matchup and came down to some in real life performances.  Keion White going bonkers this week really swung this in the favor of Lancaster with the Puka injury.  

Give me Lancaster 24-16

[MikeT14]

1 hour ago, bcb1213 said:

Unfortunately for Cuba, Puka reaggravated a preseason an injury he came into the game with so that has to be taken into consideration.  With him being a large part of the passing attack that definitely hurts.  I'm also not a fan of trying to run an RPO out of the wishbone as theirs really only one wideout for the defense to key on.  Then the we aren't going to have Ward cover chase in the slot while simultaneously saying hes going to play in the slot whether chase lines up there or not is also confusing.

On the opposite side putting Coleman in the slot is frankly, not wise.  He doesn't do that , not is he a polished enough route runner to think he can(45 boundary snaps week one and 0 slot snaps irl  back this up).  Probably better to just mix Chase in the slot rotation as he does that in real life.  

In the end, this was a very difficult matchup and came down to some in real life performances.  Keion White going bonkers this week really swung this in the favor of Lancaster with the Puka injury.  

Give me Lancaster 24-16

You’re right. I do actually think Coleman can operate out of the slot with some fun mismatch stuff, but the Bills definitely disagreed with me on that. 

[Scoundrel]

I’m gonna say this about the irl stuff… I used to be more hard on it but I think just only using guys where they are used in the NFL takes a lot of creativity out of gameplanning in this league and that’s the fun of it… I like a challenge in thinking to myself based on skill set and other roster complements how a guy would fit in a position not just oh hey he has never played there so he can’t or shouldn’t do it. 

[Pickle Rick]

Chase is still in preseason mode and the other WRs i don't think can make up the difference for Lancaster, causing Hurts to become one dimensional and easier for Cuba to handle, leading to more stops and them pulling away in the second half

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

Jesus. Two (or, really, three) heavyweights with monster gameplans. Rosters boasting loads of talent, depth pieces that could start on some of the other teams out there, and intricate strategies that show you just how deliberate and determined each of these contenders are as they approach this prime time showdown. It's fitting that this was my last vote: it's the Monday night match-up worthy of the spotlight. (As I start to write this, I still have no clue which way I'm leaning. This will be tough.)

And, to be clear, I'm not infatuated by either of the QBs. I think Lawrence is good. I think Hurts is good, if not just a bit... gooder. I think Hurts landed in a better situation, surrounded by an organization that wanted to take full advantage of his skillset. But, frankly, neither is close to that elite tier.

In a game this tight, and with gameplans this even, I tend to look at the gamewreckers present on each of the squads; the guys that have a history of stepping up in key moments and turning the tides in their team's favor. Prime Joey Bosa was that guy, but we haven't seen that Joey Bosa in a few years. Cuba's back 7 is littered with solid contributors, with studs like McKinney, Simmons and Ward sprinkled in the secondary. (I'm a huge Van Ginkel fan, and would've loved to see him in the starting lineup, but his defined role spelled out in the write-up satisfies my preference here.) It's a very good, well-defined Cuba defense.

On the other side, you've got a guy with that prime Joey Bosa impact in T.J. Watt - a legitimate gamewrecker - with the emerging Keion White across from him, the stud Fred Warner patrolling behind them, and the stud Minkah Fitzpatrick covering deep. Working against Lancaster here is the limited Jalen Ramsey - historically a stud, his recovery from injury isn't complete and his presence here feels more like a liability than a strength. As a result, Jefferson gets the clear edge in this match-up, but Lancaster has strong safety play covering deep when Ramsey is in man coverage, making me believe that, although he'll get his, Jefferson may not dominate this affair.

The defensive stars give Lancaster a narrow edge in OT in a Monday night nail-biter, 34-31.

[TedLavie]

Skyy Moore for the coin toss haha. Loved it.

With Puka re-aggravated his knee injury from this summer, I considered his impact as minimal. And without him, I think Cuba offense is a bit too limited. I like JJ underneath in zone blitzes and 2 high safeties situations - I think he gets 100+ yards. But aside from him, I don't see any positive play provider for Cuba against an extremely tough Lancaster front. On the opposite side, Lancaster offense is still a bit limited. Chase was decent but certainly didn't look 100%, and I don't think anyone else is threatening Cuba deep, which Cuba planned accordingly by leaving a safety closer to the LOS. Lancaster can get the running game going (wish they had use it more tbh) and some short stuff, but I think Cuba defense wins more matchups than they don't.

In an offensive struggle, I'll take Lancaster. I think at home they can move the ball a bit more consistently with Hurts/Gibbs/Montgommery legs as well as couple of short/intermediary passes to Reynolds/Coleman. Lancaster 16-13

[RedGold]

Lancaster is going to be a force once that offense gets rolling. 

In the end,  great rosters/great gameplan.   I think Cuba has a little more going for them early on in this season though.