Week 4 GDT - Denver at New York Jets

[AnAngryAmerican]

Here is the official GameDay thread for this week's matchup. 

Who: Denver Broncos (1-2) at New York Jets (2-1)

When: Sunday, September 29 at 11:00 am MST 

Where: Met Life Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Weather: 66, Mostly Cloudy

TV: CBS

Line: New York -7.5

NFL Ranks Offense: New York 18th yards / 14th points, Denver 23rd yards / 23rd points

NFL Ranks Defense: New York 7th yards / 8th points, Denver 3rd yards / 6th points

The Straight Dope (also known as The Skinny): We got our first win last week in what was moderately impressive fashion. The Jets also played their best game of the year, thoroughly dismantling the Patriots. The Jets bring a better defense, one of the tops in the league, with difference makers at all three levels, than what we saw last week against Tampa. They also have a more explosive offense led by future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, who last week looked to be in prime form. The time change, playing on the East Coast at 11am, did not seem to affect us much last week and that concern should be further mitigated considering we spent the week in West Virginia acclimating to the time change. Sean has a 10-0 record in his career against Todd Bowles, something that no doubt helped us last week, and I think the Jets present a tougher matchup. We have to avoid mistakes on offense and sustain drives. Bo proved efficient last week and flashed athleticism, we will need more of that this week. PS2 faces another tough matchup against Garrett Wilson, but I expect he should hold his own as he has against D.K. Metcalf, George Pickens and Mike Evans in the first three weeks. Riley Moss will need to turn in another strong game against WR2 Alan Lazard, who has established chemistry with Rodgers from their time together in Green Bay. We need to control Breece Hall, an elite RB, so our front seven better come to play. I think we can win, and I expect a close game, but I do think New York is the superior team and will pull this one out. 

Prediction: New York 23, Denver 17

[Broncofan]

Breece Hall & Braelon Allen are our biggest problems on O, along with A-Rod's ability to make magic happen on 3rd down (he's still not physically all the way back,  but his anticipation and ball placement in tight spots are still there).    If we can't get pressure when he steps back, and we can't stop the run, it's going to be a long day on D.    Our ability to cover RB & TE will be essential here, given how much Breece Hall can absolutely hurt us in the pass game (not just with the run).     If there's one area for hope - A-Rod is covering up for the same lack of originality, play-calling and play design by Nathaniel Hackett.   If you can get pressure on A-Rod early, Hackett's lack of OC acumen can be exploited.  I'm just not sure we can stop the run or get to A-Rod soon enough to expose this.

On O, it's simple = we either successfully run the ball, or we're in massive trouble.   NYJ is a run funnel D, at least with boundary passing game.   You can get them with RB/TE pass game, but we've been so dreadful there, it's hard to think we're suddenly able to exploit that. 

I think we'll hang in early, but as the run game wears our D down, and our O can't stay on the field...it gets ugly in the 2H.    As much as TAM's W was earned, it was with a team that feasts with 2 WR's and Baker Mayfield (and for some reason they went away from using Rachaad White in the pass game last week), and struggles with the run - and didn't have Vita Vea, Winfield & DE Kancey, and 2 of their top 3 CB's.   This week, we get the Jets full D (maybe without ILB Mosley, but they've got a decent backup there), and a team that's committed to running the ball, and can beat us with TE/RB. 

I'd say 27-16 NYJ.     If we pull off the W, then I'll be happy to eat crow on that call.

[The Helicopter]

I just hope it's a closer game than our first two games. I'd expect to be the underdog and hopefully our recent win against the Bucs can fuel some competitive momentum, and we get the good bounces. Even losing on a last second field goal should keep our spirits high, although I'd rather win on one. I honestly don't know what to expect from either team at this point in the season. Hackett sucks and Rodgers is an emotional player. 

[AKRNA]

2 hours ago, The Helicopter said:

I just hope it's a closer game than our first two games. I'd expect to be the underdog and hopefully our recent win against the Bucs can fuel some competitive momentum, and we get the good bounces. Even losing on a last second field goal should keep our spirits high, although I'd rather win on one. I honestly don't know what to expect from either team at this point in the season. Hackett sucks and Rodgers is an emotional player. 

I've felt that way  about Denver all year. About the only thing I felt confident about was our front 7 on D but only because we added a few new pieces. 

Riley Moss has been a great surprise but the biggest surprise has to be VJ. Where has this D come from? I've got no clue how this game will turn out.

Edited September 26 by AKRNA

[jolly red giant]

Being able to run the ball would help

[lomaxgrUK]

Run the ball

Stop the run

Win the turnover battle

[AKRNA]

16 minutes ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Run the ball

Stop the run

Win the turnover battle

I'm sure I've heard that somewhere before but I just can't place it.😉

[Dbrog24]

I didn't realize that Badie wasn't even signed to our full football roster until now. Crazy that some of our practice squad guys (Tillman, Lil'Jordan) are flashing the way they are over starters. 

I guess in the theme of that, I could see a path to us winning this game...though I don't think it's likely. I agree with you guys though in that if it's close, that's gonna feel like a win, barring a 7-3 game or something awful like that

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

One thing to consider, the broncos pass rushers have been getting so much consistent pressure that cooper and bonito are number 2 & 3 in the league (behind only TJ Watt) in edge rushers who are getting chipped by the RB.    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-chip-percentage-week-4

Breece Hall leads the jets in receptions, something he may not be able to do this week if he’s being asked to chip and block more.

[Dbrog24]

1 hour ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

One thing to consider, the broncos pass rushers have been getting so much consistent pressure that cooper and bonito are number 2 & 3 in the league (behind only TJ Watt) in edge rushers who are getting chipped by the RB.    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-chip-percentage-week-4

Breece Hall leads the jets in receptions, something he may not be able to do this week if he’s being asked to chip and block more.

What the heck?! I absolutely never would have put those two, or any of our pass rushers, on that stat. I can't even remember in the last almost decade us even touching the opposing QBs more than 1 or 2 times per game, and that was even with Von still here

[AKRNA]

4 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

One thing to consider, the broncos pass rushers have been getting so much consistent pressure that cooper and bonito are number 2 & 3 in the league (behind only TJ Watt) in edge rushers who are getting chipped by the RB.    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-chip-percentage-week-4

Breece Hall leads the jets in receptions, something he may not be able to do this week if he’s being asked to chip and block more.

Good catch!

[AKRNA]

2 hours ago, Dbrog24 said:

What the heck?! I absolutely never would have put those two, or any of our pass rushers, on that stat. I can't even remember in the last almost decade us even touching the opposing QBs more than 1 or 2 times per game, and that was even with Von still here

I think we had 9 QB hits last week with over half coming in the 4th. If we can keep games close our D will become quite a game changer come the 4th.

[broncosfan_101]

4 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

One thing to consider, the broncos pass rushers have been getting so much consistent pressure that cooper and bonito are number 2 & 3 in the league (behind only TJ Watt) in edge rushers who are getting chipped by the RB.    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-chip-percentage-week-4

Breece Hall leads the jets in receptions, something he may not be able to do this week if he’s being asked to chip and block more.

And their TE1 Ty Conklin is a very poor blocker. The pass rush continuing their strong play is a great way to neutralize our D’s biggest weakness: covering RB/TE’s. If we’re forcing offences to keep them in pass pro, or even just to chip, our back 7 is at a big advantage.

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, broncosfan_101 said:

And their TE1 Ty Conklin is a very poor blocker. The pass rush continuing their strong play is a great way to neutralize our D’s biggest weakness: covering RB/TE’s. If we’re forcing offences to keep them in pass pro, or even just to chip, our back 7 is at a big advantage.

Is it just me or do we have the best trio of CB's we've had for a long time? I'm really looking forward to watching Rodgers against them. So far no QB has gotten close to 200 yds. YPA has dropped weekly from 6.8 to 5.9 to 4.9 last week. 

Thats pretty impressive stuff. Also, the teams we've played have a combined record of 8-1. 

[rcpbawler]

4 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Is it just me or do we have the best trio of CB's we've had for a long time? I'm really looking forward to watching Rodgers against them. So far no QB has gotten close to 200 yds. YPA has dropped weekly from 6.8 to 5.9 to 4.9 last week. 

Thats pretty impressive stuff. Also, the teams we've played have a combined record of 8-1. 

I think it's a little too early to call it but they're certainly trending that way. PS2 is inarguably a top 3 CB and Jaquan has played like one of the best NB for almost a year now. Moss has had his ups and downs but has looked more than competent as CB2. He's going to get tested a lot this season so hope he holds up there.