What QB Do We Want Going Into 2018?

[Worm Guts]

36 minutes ago, Purplexing said:

On a championship caliber team, you can't just willy nilly tag one very good player because there are plenty of very good players that need to be re-signed. 

Brzezinski and The Pickumulator will negotiate until they are purple in the face to get long term deals done.  And that includes QB, LB, CB, ...   Only if they run into an arrogant agent will they resort to a tag.  Why would any of the nucleus of very good players want to leave Minnesota?  Why would a GM offer an obvious low-ball contract to a very good player and risk losing him? Both sides will come to their senses.

I personally would rather have Case on 1 year deal than a long term deal, the franchise tag is probably the only way that happens.  I don't know if there is anyone else we would need the franchise tag for this offseason. I don't think so.

[JDBrocks]

What about the basketball style contract, 2 years with a player option after 1, first year is fully guaranteed. If outplays a substantially larger contract again next year, he’s free to renegotiate again.

Case himself has said he’s always won by betting on himself. 

[CriminalMind]

1 hour ago, JDBrocks said:

What about the basketball style contract, 2 years with a player option after 1, first year is fully guaranteed. If outplays a substantially larger contract again next year, he’s free to renegotiate again.

Case himself has said he’s always won by betting on himself. 

Are you suggesting a 2 year deal total $45M, year 1 = $22M, year 2 = $23M ?

So essentially its a 100% player option money guaranteed deal?

[JDBrocks]

I don't know what the guaranteed portion or total value would look like, as there would have to be some injury clauses in there. But essentially yes.

[Cearbhall]

12 hours ago, Riddle said:

 

I was looking at their yearly average via sportrac. I should have been more clear, mea culpa. 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/

Rodgers and Brees are both at the end of contracts that perfectly illustrate the manner in which QB valuation continues to go up over time; they are now severely under paid. Rodgers is expected to sign a contract exceeding $30 million a season in the near future. Luck and Wilson are both early on in contracts that have some balloon years in the middle or end, although these balloon years appear to keep pace with where the QB market is expected to go. Roethlisburger's contract is odd, it had a dip in the middle, in 2016 he made $23 million and over the next two years he will make $23 million. Tom Brady is the exception, but he is notorious for taking a very team friendly deal so that others can get paid. 

Picking out the cap hit in any one year is not necessarily a great representation of a players value. I understand that average value can be misconstrued as well, however I think it is generally a better measure. FWIW, I agree that Case is not better than those QBs, I am not arguing that we should pay case $23 million a year...merely that it is likely he will command that salary, whether here or elsewhere. 

Forbes is projecting that Kirk Cousins will set a new high water mark$150 Million over 5 years, $75 million at fully guaranteed. Such is the nature of the beast - nearly every off season there is a QB that sets a new high water mark, and rising tides lift all boats.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/vincentfrank/2018/01/06/what-will-kirk-cousins-free-agent-contract-look-like/2/#708d06026fcd

These are great points. To add to it, while cap numbers in a given year are a pretty terrible way to measure compensation as you alluded to just looking at average salary isn't really adequate either. A more useful tool is looking at the value of each contract at the time it was signed relative to other existing contracts. What you'll see is almost all decent starting QBs have been getting contracts at the top of the market that was set at the time. Sure, as time passes and other QBs, often lesser QBs, sign contracts they will slide down the ladder. That is the way it works almost always.

Comparing average salary on a contract signed in '18 to a contract signed in previous years isn't a very useful tool beyond the first '18 contract being compared to the Stafford contract which currently sets the bar. No team or agent will negotiate based on a comparison to Tom Brady's cap number. If they did, no QB qould ever make more than Tom Brady. That just isn't how it works. Right now, the bar is set at $27M per year. That will be solidified and probably bumped higher when Kirk Cousins signs his deal. Those are the contracts most relevant to the Case Keenum contract negotiation. I do not believe that Case's representatives will demand compensation that puts Case at the very top of the market nor do I believe that any team would pay Case Keenum at the very top of the market. However, Case's agents will be able to make an argument for around $25M per year as a starting point in their negotiations. The amount a team will be able to talk them down from that will depend on how many teams are showing interest.

Like you Riddle, I am also not arguing that the Viking should pay Case that amount of money. Just stating that it will take someone over the franchise tag amount to get Case to sign prior to the tag deadline. Whether the team should do it or let another team pay him is a whole different question that is a lot harder to answer. Letting Case get to free agency is the only way that the team will get Case signed for less than the franchise value. That entails a high risk of some other team being willing to pay more than whatever the Vikings are willing to pay. If Case is still on the free agent market 3 days into free agency I could see his agents accepting $18M for a year.

If I was running the team, I would have one of the three QBs signed to be the Vikings '18 starter before free agency. That means not waiting for one of them to soften their demands after not getting what they wanted at the start of free agency. The best negotiating tool will be the threat of signing one of the other two. Not many teams have three QBs they can play off of each other before free agency starts. This can help the team get a better deal but I still don't think that agents will sign a deal that is significantly below what they know their client would be looking at if they became a free agent.

Until the team gets one of the three QBs signed the best thing they can do is not tip their hand about which QB they prefer for '18. Bringing Sam back to the roster gives Case and Teddy's agent one more thing to think about. Prior to that, everyone had written off Sam as an option. Now they have to be asking themselves if the team would consider going with Sam if their client doesn't agree to the team's offer. The team should say nothing to eliminate any of the three as a possibility. 

 

 

[perrynoid]

Interesting points, to be sure.  One wonders where Sloter fits n all of this?  If Sam or Teddy is signed first, is the team looking to Sloter as injury insurance?  We are focusing on who is the favored starter, but in that equation we have to consider what the team thinks of Sloter as a reliable back-up and potential injury replacement.

[Worm Guts]

1 minute ago, perrynoid said:

Interesting points, to be sure.  One wonders where Sloter fits n all of this?  If Sam or Teddy is signed first, is the team looking to Sloter as injury insurance?  We are focusing on who is the favored starter, but in that equation we have to consider what the team thinks of Sloter as a reliable back-up and potential injury replacement.

I view Sloter as someone like Brad Johnson or Shaun Hill.  Both were 3rd stringers for multiple season before even getting chance to be the primary backup. He's basically a developmental guy who may or may not get an opportunity down the road.

[Cearbhall]

5 minutes ago, perrynoid said:

Interesting points, to be sure.  One wonders where Sloter fits n all of this?  If Sam or Teddy is signed first, is the team looking to Sloter as injury insurance?  We are focusing on who is the favored starter, but in that equation we have to consider what the team thinks of Sloter as a reliable back-up and potential injury replacement.

My impression is that the team thinks of Sloter as a developmental QB that can became a good backup. I doubt the team is projecting out further than that but is all the stars align after he becomes a backup it is possible he may one day be a useful starter.

[perrynoid]

I don't know if we've examined in detail the option of signing a FA QB if none of ours resign?  Perhaps sign Gabbert, Osweiler, Fales or some similar FA QB?  If it worked once for Keenum, could it work again for another relatively inexpensive FA QB?  Especially if "The QB Whisperer" leaves for a HC position, as we now accept as a forgone conclusion?  Here is a list of the potential free agent QB's:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/quarterback/

[CriminalMind]

1 hour ago, JDBrocks said:

I don't know what the guaranteed portion or total value would look like, as there would have to be some injury clauses in there. But essentially yes.

Vikings would prefer just to tag him at $22.5M for 1 year (pre-free agency), and then see if they can work out something after the draft for a long term deal (maybe they add a QB in the draft and it makes the long term contract discussion more interesting towards late summer)

[vikingsrule]

8 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

Vikings would prefer just to tag him at $22.5M for 1 year (pre-free agency), and then see if they can work out something after the draft for a long term deal (maybe they add a QB in the draft and it makes the long term contract discussion more interesting towards late summer)

Tagging Keenum makes too much sense. The tag opens up negotiations through the start of the season rather than just rushing to an extension pre free agency that might be more emotion based.

id rather guarantee Keenum $23 million for one year than sign a bad multi year contract with $50+ million in guarantees. 

The Vikes have a healthy cap situation and should still be able to lock up two of Diggs, Hunter, Barr or Kendricks this offseason.

Just don't spend anything in free agency other than cheaper depth players.  

[The Gnat]

Just now, vikingsrule said:

id rather guarantee Keenum $23 million for one year that sign a bad multi year contract with $50 million in guarantees. 

The Vikes have a healthy cap situation and should still be able to lock up two of Diggs, Hunter, Barr or Kendricks this offseason.

Just don't spend anything in free agency other than cheaper depth players.  

This is what I suspect will happen at this point in time. What worries me about that is if Keenum doesn't sign longer, he just signs for a single season, what do the Vikings do about QB longer term? What happens if Keenum fails, obviously better than locking him up to $50 million in guarantees, but how high would the Vikings draft a QB. If we tag Keenum, it makes me more apt to draft a QB in round one especially if someone falls.

[vikingsrule]

9 minutes ago, The Gnat said:

This is what I suspect will happen at this point in time. What worries me about that is if Keenum doesn't sign longer, he just signs for a single season, what do the Vikings do about QB longer term? What happens if Keenum fails, obviously better than locking him up to $50 million in guarantees, but how high would the Vikings draft a QB. If we tag Keenum, it makes me more apt to draft a QB in round one especially if someone falls.

Signing Keenum long term would then become a priority at the end of next season if he proves to be a worthy starter. If Keenum fails to progress, it will hurt his market value but I still think the Vikes would be in the mix. If Keenum doesn't live up to the franchise tag, I'd hope we could get him at a lower rate and draft a QB early in 2019.

 

 

[CriminalMind]

8 minutes ago, The Gnat said:

This is what I suspect will happen at this point in time. What worries me about that is if Keenum doesn't sign longer, he just signs for a single season, what do the Vikings do about QB longer term? What happens if Keenum fails, obviously better than locking him up to $50 million in guarantees, but how high would the Vikings draft a QB. If we tag Keenum, it makes me more apt to draft a QB in round one especially if someone falls.

I've been on board with tagging Case + drafting a low 1st round QB since October.

I think Case earns the tag from Vikings (because we don't want to lose him for this season), and drafting that QB sets up the potential QB to take over if Case falters &/or if he prices himself too high the following year. Minimize Free Agent signings this offseason (that count against compensatory picks), and hope the Teddy / Bradford combination brings in a 3rd round pick.

[vikingsrule]

I haven't yet followed the QB class in this year's draft, but if a worthy QB falls to the end of round one, I'd certainly pull the trigger. Though, I'm generally not very confident of this strategy as it's hard to find a good long term starter outside the top 20.