What QB Do We Want Going Into 2018?

[SteelKing728]

27 minutes ago, The Gnat said:

This is what I suspect will happen at this point in time. What worries me about that is if Keenum doesn't sign longer, he just signs for a single season, what do the Vikings do about QB longer term? What happens if Keenum fails, obviously better than locking him up to $50 million in guarantees, but how high would the Vikings draft a QB. If we tag Keenum, it makes me more apt to draft a QB in round one especially if someone falls.

Draft a QB no later than round 2.

[CriminalMind]

14 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

I haven't yet followed the QB class in this year's draft, but if a worthy QB falls to the end of round one, I'd certainly pull the trigger. Though, I'm generally not very confident of this strategy as it's hard to find a good long term starter outside the top 20.

We have a win now team... due to the star power of this team being youngish, we can easily have 3-4 years of contender status given average health... if we have 4 years of fair/good QB play.

Drafting another QB, allows us to potentially not have (reduces the risk) a year where "we have no competent QB play" (example Case regression, Case being pricey the following year, Case injury, Sloter non-progress) during the next 4 year span.

[vikesfan89]

It would suck having to spend another first round pick on a QB but at least we've been able to find talent throughout the draft and don't have to rely on the first round

[vikingsrule]

4 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

It would suck having to spend another first round pick on a QB but at least we've been able to find talent throughout the draft and don't have to rely on the first round

This team is talented, is able to find talent throughout the draft and doesn't have many pressing needs. I'm fine using a first on a QB so long as it's not a major reach. We don't need to be desperate.

[The Gnat]

Wrong thread

[The Gnat]

10 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

I'm fine using a first on a QB so long as it's not a major reach. We don't need to be desperate.

Agreed, generally I look at it if one drops like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, or Baker Mayfield. I don't think we'll see Darnold or Rosen drop, and if the other three are taken, I don't want to reach on someone like Mason Rudolph. I'd prefer to wait until the 3rd round and look at Memphis QB Riley Ferguson as a QB who has some upside with a year of learning/coaching.

[EvilNuff]

A couple of people have mentioned it but I think Drew Brees should be the Vikings QB next year.  Yes he has said that he wants to go back to NO but the reality is they cannot offer as much as other teams because of that 18m dead cap hit that he costs them.  They could sign him to a 4 or 5 year deal and push that cap hit back but that would be crippling to them.  We are going to spend 23m on Case next year when we tag him so 30/m a year for Brees over 2-3 years is just a better deal.  MN could offer him 100m over 3 years and NO would be hard pressed to match that offer.  Outside of QB the Vikings are better than the Saints and I cannot see him taking 10s of millions less to stay in NO no matter how much he loves it there.

[VikeManDan]

Brees isn't leaving New Orleans.

[EvilNuff]

33 minutes ago, VikeManDan said:

Brees isn't leaving New Orleans.

If the Saints offer him 22m a year for 3 years and the Vikings offer him 30m a year for 3 years, he will be wearing purple next year.  You can say he isn't leaving and I agree that is the most likely scenario, but because of that extra cap hit the Saints just cannot offer him as much as other teams such as MN can offer.

[RJWSkol24]

On board with Baker Mayfield or Lamar Jackson in the first round, even if they tag Keenum or sign him for three years.  Feel they're both going to be quality pros.  Do not mind the idea of taking a developmental quarterback later if Keenum is cemented as a long-term starter, though I do not feel anyone outside the Top 4 are necessarily better project quarterbacks than Sloter.

[CriminalMind]

48 minutes ago, EvilNuff said:

If the Saints offer him 22m a year for 3 years and the Vikings offer him 30m a year for 3 years, he will be wearing purple next year.  You can say he isn't leaving and I agree that is the most likely scenario, but because of that extra cap hit the Saints just cannot offer him as much as other teams such as MN can offer.

It's not even going to get to the point where Vikings can even officially talk to him. He'll be retained by New Orleans before.

[CriminalMind]

1 hour ago, EvilNuff said:

A couple of people have mentioned it but I think Drew Brees should be the Vikings QB next year.  Yes he has said that he wants to go back to NO but the reality is they cannot offer as much as other teams because of that 18m dead cap hit that he costs them.  They could sign him to a 4 or 5 year deal and push that cap hit back but that would be crippling to them.  We are going to spend 23m on Case next year when we tag him so 30/m a year for Brees over 2-3 years is just a better deal.  MN could offer him 100m over 3 years and NO would be hard pressed to match that offer.  Outside of QB the Vikings are better than the Saints and I cannot see him taking 10s of millions less to stay in NO no matter how much he loves it there.

The $18M dead cap hit applies if he is not retained... so there is incentive for NO to get a deal done, and not have the prorated signing bonus escalated on the books.

[EvilNuff]

56 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

It's not even going to get to the point where Vikings can even officially talk to him. He'll be retained by New Orleans before.

All it takes is Spielman to call up his agent and have an informal, no rules violation, conversation.  "Hey Tom, so off the record we have 23m allocated for Case if we tag him...do you think any better quality QBs will be available this offseason?  We could go up to 100m/3 years for a really good one."  No violations an it lets him know what the market is right now.  Once his agent knows what some possible market values are for him you can bet he will wait.

There is *literally* zero reason for Brees to sign before he can officially talk to other teams, unless he realizes that there won't be any official offers from others as good as the Saints offer. 

 

47 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

The $18M dead cap hit applies if he is not retained... so there is incentive for NO to get a deal done, and not have the prorated signing bonus escalated on the books.

Semantics but that 18m is retained no matter what, just if they sign him to a new deal that can get rolled in.  So in practical terms, for the same cap hit, other teams can offer more than NO can.  The Vikes have a projected 20m more in cap space next year than the Saints as well.  Quite literally if MN wants him and is willing to pay him, they can offer more than the Saints.

[CriminalMind]

23 hours ago, Cearbhall said:

These are great points. To add to it, while cap numbers in a given year are a pretty terrible way to measure compensation as you alluded to just looking at average salary isn't really adequate either. A more useful tool is looking at the value of each contract at the time it was signed relative to other existing contracts. What you'll see is almost all decent starting QBs have been getting contracts at the top of the market that was set at the time. Sure, as time passes and other QBs, often lesser QBs, sign contracts they will slide down the ladder. That is the way it works almost always.

Comparing average salary on a contract signed in '18 to a contract signed in previous years isn't a very useful tool beyond the first '18 contract being compared to the Stafford contract which currently sets the bar. No team or agent will negotiate based on a comparison to Tom Brady's cap number. If they did, no QB qould ever make more than Tom Brady. That just isn't how it works. Right now, the bar is set at $27M per year. That will be solidified and probably bumped higher when Kirk Cousins signs his deal. Those are the contracts most relevant to the Case Keenum contract negotiation. I do not believe that Case's representatives will demand compensation that puts Case at the very top of the market nor do I believe that any team would pay Case Keenum at the very top of the market. However, Case's agents will be able to make an argument for around $25M per year as a starting point in their negotiations. The amount a team will be able to talk them down from that will depend on how many teams are showing interest.

Like you Riddle, I am also not arguing that the Viking should pay Case that amount of money. Just stating that it will take someone over the franchise tag amount to get Case to sign prior to the tag deadline. Whether the team should do it or let another team pay him is a whole different question that is a lot harder to answer. Letting Case get to free agency is the only way that the team will get Case signed for less than the franchise value. That entails a high risk of some other team being willing to pay more than whatever the Vikings are willing to pay. If Case is still on the free agent market 3 days into free agency I could see his agents accepting $18M for a year.

If I was running the team, I would have one of the three QBs signed to be the Vikings '18 starter before free agency. That means not waiting for one of them to soften their demands after not getting what they wanted at the start of free agency. The best negotiating tool will be the threat of signing one of the other two. Not many teams have three QBs they can play off of each other before free agency starts. This can help the team get a better deal but I still don't think that agents will sign a deal that is significantly below what they know their client would be looking at if they became a free agent.

Until the team gets one of the three QBs signed the best thing they can do is not tip their hand about which QB they prefer for '18. Bringing Sam back to the roster gives Case and Teddy's agent one more thing to think about. Prior to that, everyone had written off Sam as an option. Now they have to be asking themselves if the team would consider going with Sam if their client doesn't agree to the team's offer. The team should say nothing to eliminate any of the three as a possibility. 

 

 

It's also fair to assume that the 3 QB agents have already been talking to other teams to gauge there market value to other teams. So they have an idea what other teams see there value at.

[CriminalMind]

17 hours ago, EvilNuff said:

All it takes is Spielman to call up his agent and have an informal, no rules violation, conversation.  "Hey Tom, so off the record we have 23m allocated for Case if we tag him...do you think any better quality QBs will be available this offseason?  We could go up to 100m/3 years for a really good one."  No violations an it lets him know what the market is right now.  Once his agent knows what some possible market values are for him you can bet he will wait.

There is *literally* zero reason for Brees to sign before he can officially talk to other teams, unless he realizes that there won't be any official offers from others as good as the Saints offer. 

 

Semantics but that 18m is retained no matter what, just if they sign him to a new deal that can get rolled in.  So in practical terms, for the same cap hit, other teams can offer more than NO can.  The Vikes have a projected 20m more in cap space next year than the Saints as well.  Quite literally if MN wants him and is willing to pay him, they can offer more than the Saints.

Re: offer more then the Saints.

I believe that is incorrect. I still don't see how \ why Saints would not match a potential offer from Minny. If it ever got to that point.