Random Packer News & Notes

[coachbuns]

3 hours ago, Pugger said:

But what if the BPA when our pick is up in the second round  is a WR?   I hope Gute takes him.  GMs who reach for need are not doing their franchises any favors in the end.

That wr better be heads and tails better than any of the other positions of need which there are a number of.  OL, DL, LB, CB, and even RB.  Plenty of choices in 3rd and 4th round if a nice WR is available. 

[James Lofton]

7 hours ago, Leader said:

 

Not a big fan of the positions. I’d grab at least one OL with one of the first two picks and double down with another grab them in the 4th. 

[ThatJerkDave]

I don't think I would go WR this year, but next year, sure.  Even if all of our guys work out, we aren't going to pay all of them.  As it stands, Watson, Doubs, Toure are FAs in the same year, and Reed, Wicks, DuBose and Heath all should be the season after that.  Don't want to get into a situation where the entire room is FAs again.  

[{Family Ghost}]

22 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I don't think I would go WR this year, but next year, sure.  Even if all of our guys work out, we aren't going to pay all of them.  As it stands, Watson, Doubs, Toure are FAs in the same year, and Reed, Wicks, DuBose and Heath all should be the season after that.  Don't want to get into a situation where the entire room is FAs again.  

There might be a spot somewhere with those five picks in the first three rounds where there's a guy available that is too hard to pass up.  It's supposed to be a really good wr draft.  With five picks In the top 85 or so, I wouldn't rule it out.  

[Reaper]

I wish this was a better safety draft we could use some talent there. That and OL are my areas of need.

[pgwingman]

14 hours ago, Pugger said:

But what if the BPA when our pick is up in the second round  is a WR?   I hope Gute takes him.  GMs who reach for need are not doing their franchises any favors in the end.

Yeah I get what you're saying, Gute is adamant about BPA. But the real trick to BPA drafting is trading up or down to a location where the BPA is at a position you have a hole.

At a certain point, you have to fill out a roster full of players you actually expect to see the field.

[pgwingman]

15 hours ago, vegas492 said:

 

Assuming we will draft waaaayyyy after MJH is gone, I'm not taking a WR prior to the 5'th round, if at all.

I feel like Dubose is on our practice squad and he looked very good when he was actually able to play in the summer.

That WR room is set.

Gimme OL, DL, S, RB, CB.  No particular order, except for prioritizing OL and possibly then DL.  But we have weaponz, let's fortify the lines!

Yeah. I'm working on a mock right now, and the needs seem obvious to me:

1)Replacing the departing free agents. Dillon, Runyan, Nixon, Savage, Ford

2) Replacing the oldest players on the team: Bakh, P Smith, Campbell, Jones, with Kenny Clark being a sneaky question mark going into the last year of his deal.

[Old Guy]

15 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

Yeah. I'm working on a mock right now, and the needs seem obvious to me:

1)Replacing the departing free agents. Dillon, Runyan, Nixon, Savage, Ford

2) Replacing the oldest players on the team: Bakh, P Smith, Campbell, Jones, with Kenny Clark being a sneaky question mark going into the last year of his deal.

I think Clark might get that rare 3rd contract. He's only 28 right now. 

I'd be OK with Jones coming back at a reduced salary, assuming he gets back on the field and looks close to like he was in week 1. I'm now open to Dillon coming back on a very team friendly deal. Not sur replacing Smith is as vital as some of the others. We have depth at EDGE, but probably always a good idea to get one every year. 

I've got to try and watch Walker closer this week. HIs grade from PFF doesn't match the eye test for me. Rhyan needs more reps so we know if he's the answer at RG. 

I don't want to go into next year with two rookies starting at safety. Might need to grab a vet free agent if the price is right. 

[pgwingman]

Just now, Old Guy said:

I think Clark might get that rare 3rd contract. He's only 28 right now. 

I'd be OK with Jones coming back at a reduced salary, assuming he gets back on the field and looks close to like he was in week 1. I'm now open to Dillon coming back on a very team friendly deal. Not sur replacing Smith is as vital as some of the others. We have depth at EDGE, but probably always a good idea to get one every year. 

I've got to try and watch Walker closer this week. HIs grade from PFF doesn't match the eye test for me. Rhyan needs more reps so we know if he's the answer at RG. 

I don't want to go into next year with two rookies starting at safety. Might need to grab a vet free agent if the price is right. 

Yeah I'm pretty close to that too

-Kenny could see the 3rd contract, but he does have a ton of mileage and I'm not entirely sure I know what we have on the defensive interior if he goes down. 

-Jones is still under contract for one more year, but IMO the only way he comes back is at a reduced salary. I think he will be cheaper to retain than cut.

-Dillon is a tossup for me. Cap dollars will be limited, so the price has to be good.

-I really like Preston and Campbell, but IMO there's just too many big contracts on this team. Although this is somewhat softened by the lack of 2020 and 2021 draftees who merit large 2nd deals.

-Walker is a weird one. He seems like he's good enough to keep the job until until outplayed. But he's still got the 22nd best PFF blocking score over the last 4 weeks, is trending in the right direction, and is likely playing Bakh out of a job.

-Rhyan will be competing with a draft pick next summer.

-Safety is where I would spend my (very limited) cap dollars next spring. I assume at least one of Owens/Savage/Ford will be back. 

[Old Guy]

2 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

Yeah I'm pretty close to that too

-Kenny could see the 3rd contract, but he does have a ton of mileage and I'm not entirely sure I know what we have on the defensive interior if he goes down. 

-Jones is still under contract for one more year, but IMO the only way he comes back is at a reduced salary. I think he will be cheaper to retain than cut.

-Dillon is a tossup for me. Cap dollars will be limited, so the price has to be good.

-I really like Preston and Campbell, but IMO there's just too many big contracts on this team. Although this is somewhat softened by the lack of 2020 and 2021 draftees who merit large 2nd deals.

-Walker is a weird one. He seems like he's good enough to keep the job until until outplayed. But he's still got the 22nd best PFF blocking score over the last 4 weeks, is trending in the right direction, and is likely playing Bakh out of a job.

-Rhyan will be competing with a draft pick next summer.

-Safety is where I would spend my (very limited) cap dollars next spring. I assume at least one of Owens/Savage/Ford will be back. 

The only thing that would play Bakh out of a job is his 41-million-dollar cap hit. Walker isn't as good as Bakh on one leg. Sorry, but if Bakh wants to come back at a reduces base salary, he's our LT. I don't see that happening though. 

[vegas492]

15 hours ago, Pugger said:

But what if the BPA when our pick is up in the second round  is a WR?   I hope Gute takes him.  GMs who reach for need are not doing their franchises any favors in the end.

It's the second round.  There will be groups of players rated together.

So you simply pick a different position, or you trade out.

[pgwingman]

25 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

The only thing that would play Bakh out of a job is his 41-million-dollar cap hit. Walker isn't as good as Bakh on one leg. Sorry, but if Bakh wants to come back at a reduces base salary, he's our LT. I don't see that happening though. 

But of Bakh's $40M cap hit, $11M is base salary, $19M is dead, and $10M is roster bonus. So his 2024 cap hit is really only $21M, which would still be the 3rd highest in the league.

The question in my mind is, what would DB get on the open market if he were released? Assuming he passes a physical and all that, I'd assume that most teams would still want a cheap, short term deal just to offset injury risk.

Would you offer him 10th highest in the league? That's $16M/year

Would you offer him 20th? That's $3M

The LT free agents next spring: 

Tyron Smith, DAL, 32.9 years, $12M in 2023

Duane Brown, NYJ, 38.2 years, $10M in 2023 (backup)

Cornelius Lucas, WAS, 32.3 years, $3M (backup)

Donavan Smith, KC, 30.4 years, $3M

So in my mind, Bakh's value is at the $12M mark. That would be the same as him playing for his roster bonus and a vet minimum base salary. Would he take that to stay here and save the packers $9M? Possible, but if he's going to take that much of a pay cut it might just make sense to ask for a release and see if the Jets are willing to pay more.

Edited December 7, 2023 by pgwingman

[Scoremore]

Forget about Bak.  He needs to be done.  OT OG IDL S and RB.  What I want with those top 5 picks. 

[CrazyJoeDavola]

10 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said:

There might be a spot somewhere with those five picks in the first three rounds where there's a guy available that is too hard to pass up.  It's supposed to be a really good wr draft.  With five picks In the top 85 or so, I wouldn't rule it out.  

With the way college football and football in general is going every year is going to be a good wide receiver year. This is now the fourth(?) year in a row where it's an "historically " deep WR draft. It seems the bulk of the athletes are gravitating towards the position so every draft will be deep. which makes hitting those other positions that much more important. I would be disappointed with a WR before round 4. With the way the current room is playing out they have bought a little bit of a grace period.

[vegas492]

56 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

But of Bakh's $40M cap hit, $11M is base salary, $19M is dead, and $10M is roster bonus. So his 2024 cap hit is really only $21M, which would still be the 3rd highest in the league.

The question in my mind is, what would DB get on the open market if he were released? Assuming he passes a physical and all that, I'd assume that most teams would still want a cheap, short term deal just to offset injury risk.

Would you offer him 10th highest in the league? That's $16M/year

Would you offer him 20th? That's $3M

The LT free agents next spring: 

Tyron Smith, DAL, 32.9 years, $12M in 2023

Duane Brown, NYJ, 38.2 years, $10M in 2023 (backup)

Cornelius Lucas, WAS, 32.3 years, $3M (backup)

Donavan Smith, KC, 30.4 years, $3M

So in my mind, Bakh's value is at the $12M mark. That would be the same as him playing for his roster bonus and a vet minimum base salary. Would he take that to stay here and save the packers $9M? Possible, but if he's going to take that much of a pay cut it might just make sense to ask for a release and see if the Jets are willing to pay more.

The only issue with what you typed above is...assuming that he passes a physical.

If he were to get a $12M/year offer, my bet would be that it would not be a straight forward $12M.  

Instead it could be $12M earned for playing in games.  So, no higher end bonus at all.

No team is going to give him that much with the injury risk on him.  If he wants it, he will have to play to earn it.

At least that is my feeling.  After all of Rodgers boys failing in NY, I doubt highly that they would give a friendly deal to Bakh just because he wants to go there to play with Rodgers.  Instead I can see them low balling him because of that fact.  Because?  Rodgers is a horrible GM.