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2018 NFL Draft Discussion


squire12

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2 minutes ago, Lodestar said:

I've had a feeling for a while that Roquan Smith will fall to our pick. How would people feel about drafting him?

If we’re going to take an off ball LB we might as well just take LVE and hope he’s Urlacher. Smith is a medical flag and lacks any kind of length. Going to be good in a 4 man front but I fail to see how he’s going to make us much better.

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2 minutes ago, Lodestar said:

I've had a feeling for a while that Roquan Smith will fall to our pick. How would people feel about drafting him?

Used to really like Roquan but right now if we're talking ILB I'd go LVE over him because his skill set is more diverse than Roquan's IMO. 

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1 minute ago, Lodestar said:

I've had a feeling for a while that Roquan Smith will fall to our pick. How would people feel about drafting him?

I was high on him early on as he was a killer tackler and fast from sideline to sideline - but - on researching it, I've come to question his stature for the Big Show and (like LVE IMO) he didnt show well in shedding blockers. If he scooted by the blocker - good. If the blocker got his hands on him - definitely not good.

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My last EDGE rankings before the draft 

 

1.Bradley Chubb-Top 5

I like him way more in a 4-3 than I do in a 3-4 where he’d be asked to stand up, so he’s a bit limited but you can’t teach his strength and he’s as polished as you’d like from a moves standpoint. Day 1 contributor. I don’t see an elite player but an easy 10 year starter.

 

2.Marcus Davenport-Top 10

Both quicker and faster than he’s given credit for, and probably the most violent edge rusher in this entire class. His hand usage is second to none and I feel he’s going to be a much better run defender than the rest of this class after Chubb in due time. There will be some growing pains there as he’s used to having things all his own way and will need to learn how to beat tackles with more than just shear power but I don’t see much reason to believe he won’t figure it out quickly.

3.Harold Landry-Top 15

I started off very cold on Landry, as I don’t ever see him being a great run defender and he really lives and dies by his great speed and first step off the edge, but I’ve come around to see he’s someone who will give a team 8-12 sacks per season granted he stays healthy. Would love to see him add some bulk to keep that skinny frame of his clean, as we seen last seen when he suffers lower body injuries he’s a shell of what’s he’s capable of. Going to need to develop his hand usage as well, as he won’t be able to run around tackles as effortlessly as he did his junior year.

 

4.Lorenzo Carter- Top 30

There isn’t a single thing about Carter’s game I don’t like. Extremely disciplined both in gap containment and whenever he was asked to cover, which was far more than I would have asked if I was coaching him at the college level. Let the kid pin his ears back and I’m confident he will show pass rushing ability few seem to think he has at this stage. I don’t see a more well rounded player we can target with our second pick and I’d love to find a way to grab him with or without Landry/Davenport already picked by us before him.

5.Sam Hubbard Ohio State- Middle 2nd Round

Whenever I focused in on Hubbard I just came away wanting more. He understands his responsibilities so well and is a gifted athlete, so there’s no reason why he didn’t produce more than he did for long stretches behind a talented Ohio State front. I see him as a serious boom or bust prospect who’s going to need a year to get bigger and find his niche as a pass rusher as right now he’s just an unknown as far as what his go to will be.

 

6.Josh Sweat- Middle 2nd Round

If Sweat’s knee wasn’t a time bomb he’d be challenging for 3rd in these rankings. Incredibly gifted athlete who frankly underachieved at FSU but we all know he’s capable of more than he showed there. He tried to skate by on his physical edge far too much for my liking and I’d hope he understands he can’t do that if he wants to have any kind of pro career. Still, the talent is there and if his legs stay under him, he could prove to be the biggest steal in the entire draft.

7.Arden Key Late 2nd-Mid 3rd

Between his character trouble, his poor senior year and his outright awful showing at the combine, Key’s absolutely dominant junior season seems a distant memory in the minds of most evaluators. Some feel he’s stiff, some feel he’s slow and others feel he simply stopped caring at some point early last season. I tend to believe he gave up when his name was muddied by the drug allegations against him and the lack of support he felt from the program. Whoever drafts him is going to need to really believe in him being the Key of old as he’s not a guy who’s shown to respond to criticism all that well.  I see a prospect here who’s going to be an extremely streaky player. When he’s on, he’s going to be a terror to deal with but when he goes cold, he’s going to need to be sat down and given time to refocus. Kind of like Ansah in that regard. 

 

Will expand on this and do a few more later.

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34 minutes ago, Lodestar said:

I've had a feeling for a while that Roquan Smith will fall to our pick. How would people feel about drafting him?

I don't see a ton to love. I don't think he's enough of a game changer to offset a non premium position. I'll pass.

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8 hours ago, squire12 said:

Here is what I have for OT.  I know @Cadmus and I have discussed these parameters last year.

I think the IOL and OT are essentially the same.  

 

 

40 20 10 bench Vert Broad 20 shuttle 3-cone
5.2 3 1.8     8'1" 4.75 7.7

 

My only requirement for OL is a 7.70 3C, but that's not necessarily a strict cutoff point. I've said before that I think the 3C is the only drill the Packers truly care about (unless significant problems are present elsewhere). The Packers have selected just 1 Player in the last 11 Draft Classes that hasn't reached the 7.7s or lower (even Schlauderschitt was in the 7.7s). Jamon Meredith was the only player above that threshold and I think you could easily write that selection off as a perceived value pick. Meredith was generally rated as an early-mid 2nd and then fell to the end of the 5th (it would be like Moton falling to the end of the 5th). The <7.7 3C also represents one of the more exclusive OL clubs in the NFL draft every single year and its clear the Packers value OL with agility, specifically the COD skills. 

So for the 3C: (Basic outline, not necessarily some concrete rubric) 

<7.70- These players will always meet my requirements unless there's a significant performance red flag. 

7.71-7.74- All of these players will typically be treated similar to the a sub 7.7 OL unless the other numbers are poor or there's a performance issue. 

7.75-7.79- These players must posses satisfactory numbers in the shuttle and 10 yard split AND the performance on the field must alleviate any potential concerns. 

>7.79- I rarely consider OL for the Packers once they exceed that threshold. If a player is above a 7.8 they are typically either: 1) A poor athlete overall OR 2) [If they perform well in other drills] They are a linear athlete that would be too stiff to be drafted by the Packers. 


I also use the shuttle and 10 yard split as secondary guidelines. 

For the Shuttle: 

<4.85- Players are unlikely to be excluded from the list if they measure well in the 3C and have a satisfactory 10 yard split. 

4.85-4.89- The point where I start to worry and will pull players if I have concerns about on-field performance and/or the other numbers don't compensate for the time. Most of the players that fall in this range have already been excluded by the 3C, but there are players that end up here with a 7.7 3C and I evaluate them individually. 

>4.89- DOA 

For 10 yard split: 

<1.85- Players are unlikely to be excluded from the list if they measure well in the 3C and have a satisfactory shuttle value. 

1.85-1.89- The point where I start to worry and will pull players if I have concerns about on-field performance and/or the other numbers don't compensate for the time. Most of the players that fall in this range have already been excluded by the 3C, but there are players that end up here with a 7.7 3C and I will evaluate them individually. 

>1.89- DOA 

Pulled that from the 2017 Positional (OL) Mock Draft I wrote: http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=587617

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