broncos67 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 hours ago, Broncofan said: Here's the thing though - a one-year stopgap QB with no guaranteed $ is probably not worth even 15M. And since we don't know which rookie QB we're getting, we shouldn't be signing them until after the draft. We know Cousins is signing soon after FA opens. The next guy seems to be Keenum on the wish list, especially for teams with no shot of getting a top 4 QB (Jackson being #5). Those are the teams that would be interested in Keenum - and there are likely at least 1-2 (BUF, ARI, etc.). As such, I don't see how he only gets a 1-year deal of guaranteed $. CLE, because of Hue Jackson's ties to McCarron, I'm really convinced they're locking in. Hue Jackson is already on record saying he doesn't want a rookie starting Week 1, and loves McCarron. The fit there is like a glove. The 1-year stopgap vet we get will be a guy who basically is left still unsigned when the draft comes calling - 4-5 teams won't likely sign a vet until they know which rookie they get (other than CLE locking into McCarron). That means settling for whoever gets left over after other teams who don't see a rookie starter as viable, but need a starting QB, get the next tier - Keenum being firmly there. ARI, BUF, whoever. That means someone who's not going to be nearly as noteworthy - maybe it's McCown (because he's only really got 1-2 years left, and iffy if he had to play 16 games, how he'd hold up). Maybe it's Bradford and his bad knee with a degenerative condition. Maybe it's Bridgewater, because his leg injury and 2+ years off scares the heck out of the other teams. The key part though is that whoever is left behind is likely going to be cheap. Another factor is that this year, the stopgap QB market is actually buyer-friendly. Last year, it was entirely QB-friendly. Glennon got 14M because the next-best option was a retired Jay Cutler (Bradford, Bridgewater, Keenum, Taylor, McCown were all under contract) - and CHI had $ to burn in their cap. If we wait until the draft, I suspect much like Cutler & MIA, we'd get a 8-10M deal done - but with a guy no other team sees as its' first choice to start (Bradford, Taylor, McCown type guys). If it's a literal backup plan / possible 4-6 week starter (which I hope wouldn't be necessary), and the other teams have signed their starters, and we're dealing with who's left, it wouldn't surprise me at all that we have 2-3 guys still unsigned - and then we find better value, and a guy we have no problem parting ways with, or benching once the rookie is ready - even if it's Week 1. A Keenum or even McCarron signing would never fly with our objectives; they are signing to play Week 1 and beyond (Keenum longer than McCarron, obv). It also doesn't really make any sense for us to sign a vet when we have no idea who our rookie QB will be. I would be very surprised if we did sign any QB pre-draft (assuming we lose out on Cousins, obviously, but I think that's a given at this stage). That alone will disqualify guys who are actually in demand - Keenum (other teams) & McCarron (CLE). I'd fully expect they also get multi-year deals with guaranteed money, which disqualifies them on our count. The good news is that with so many vets, there will be guys left unsigned by Draft Day. If we are investing in a rookie at 1.5, to pay for even a 15-18M 1-year stopgap guy is wasted money - there's a really good chance our rookie will be starting this year, no need to go nuts on the vet commitment. Plus, the guys in demand will get more than 1 year of guaranteed $. If we are going rookie 1.5, we should expect to pair it with a guy who's either really at the end of his career (McCown) who might settle for a 1-year deal, or a guy with such huge Q marks, only teams with a rookie ready to start soon is considering him (maybe Bradford, given his knee). The beauty with this approach, is that we also not lock into big $, by having the other teams take their QB, and so we don't overpay. If we're invested into rookie at 1.5, it makes zero sense to lay out that cash, even for 1 year. Oh I think we might sign a QB pre draft. Imagine the alternative- no predraft QB and we lose out on a top target or two. That's RISKY. Not saying I disagree with your approach above, because I don't. If Denver could trade a 4th for Taylor, I'd be down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 19 minutes ago, broncos67 said: Oh I think we might sign a QB pre draft. Imagine the alternative- no predraft QB and we lose out on a top target or two. That's RISKY. Not saying I disagree with your approach above, because I don't. If Denver could trade a 4th for Taylor, I'd be down Let me rephrase - I don’t think we sign a vet QB predraft if the market plays out and leaves 2-3 vets in the cold. Remember FA starts March 16. The draft is only 5+ weeks after. I think Cousins (his own tier), McCarron (CLE) and Keenum (multi-year contract tier 2) sign quickly. After that it’s less clear. If the rest of the QB’s aren’t seen as different from the others left (Bridgewater, McCown, Bradford maybe Taylor) they could have to all wait until draft time. I agree we wouldn’t let most of those guys sign elsewhere and be left in the dark but after 3 teams lock up the others there’s only so many teams looking for a stopgap. My call on waiting to sign a stopgap later is driven by how the market for the 3rd tier vets plays out. Nothing is a lock but this is a rare year where the vets available outweigh the spots available with urgency (also because 5 Rd1 rookies are there). When that happens the signings of the 1-year vets often waits until draft time - but before OTA’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I think a lot of teams and Cousins talk is a smoke screen. It might force guys to sign right away rather than let Kirk set the Market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnAngryAmerican Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 17 hours ago, broncos67 said: Oh I think we might sign a QB pre draft. Imagine the alternative- no predraft QB and we lose out on a top target or two. That's RISKY. Not saying I disagree with your approach above, because I don't. If Denver could trade a 4th for Taylor, I'd be down Tyrod Taylor's cap hit for the upcoming season is $18.08m. I'd really prefer to spend a lot less than that on a veteran "bridge" QB. That figure eats up 75% of our cap for next year, meaning that we wouldn't be able to do much more in free agency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Re: Taylor 2018 salary 6M is a roster bonus if he’s still on the roster on the start of the new year March 6. 2M is the signing bonus cap #. Unless a team agreed to a trade before Mar. 6 to take place on opening day he would only cost 10M afterwards to a team trading for him. He has 8.6M dead money which is why cutting him hasn’t been decided upon (cut or trade the cap hit of dead money similar). The Bills likely will try to draft a QBOTF with picks 1.20 / 1.21. But can’t bank on it. If they get him then Taylor likely is on the trade block and probably for very little. If they can’t get a trade his 10M isn’t guaranteed so they can cut him and save 9.4M of that 18M hit. But likely only after the draft. Given the above he’s an option if the FA market is sluggish and vets remain unsigned. But given Cousins will hold up any signing Taylor isn’t likely to be explored as an option until his salary is more palatable at 10M and his price isn’t crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul-mac Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 22 hours ago, broncos67 said: Oh I think we might sign a QB pre draft. Imagine the alternative- no predraft QB and we lose out on a top target or two. That's RISKY. Not saying I disagree with your approach above, because I don't. If Denver could trade a 4th for Taylor, I'd be down My crazy idea for the day, there are rumours about the Bills wanting to move up to the top 5. What about we wait until draft day and then Buffalo trades us 21, 22 and Tyrod for 5. Bills get their QB at 5 then we take Lamar Jackson and someone else in the first. Jackson learning from Tyrod could be electric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 hours ago, paul-mac said: My crazy idea for the day, there are rumours about the Bills wanting to move up to the top 5. What about we wait until draft day and then Buffalo trades us 21, 22 and Tyrod for 5. Bills get their QB at 5 then we take Lamar Jackson and someone else in the first. Jackson learning from Tyrod could be electric. Its outside the box we can even sign the guard from Carolina. Trade down with them draft Hernandez, or Kolton Miller. And Lamar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncos67 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 13 hours ago, paul-mac said: My crazy idea for the day, there are rumours about the Bills wanting to move up to the top 5. What about we wait until draft day and then Buffalo trades us 21, 22 and Tyrod for 5. Bills get their QB at 5 then we take Lamar Jackson and someone else in the first. Jackson learning from Tyrod could be electric. I don't hate that idea at all, honestly. I'd be very down for trading 5 for those two firsts. The more picks the merrier. Hell, we could wait until 40 and draft Mason Rudolph or something if we got Tyrod. Imagine Tyrod, Hernandez (21) and a DT/WR/OT at 22, and then QB at 40. That would be a homerun in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, broncos67 said: I don't hate that idea at all, honestly. I'd be very down for trading 5 for those two firsts. The more picks the merrier. Hell, we could wait until 40 and draft Mason Rudolph or something if we got Tyrod. Imagine Tyrod, Hernandez (21) and a DT/WR/OT at 22, and then QB at 40. That would be a homerun in my eyes. I could see that especially with Elway if he still likes his guys and a combo of another guy. I think that's another reason we've talked to like 10 qbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bMiller031 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, thebestever6 said: I could see that especially with Elway if he still likes his guys and a combo of another guy. I think that's another reason we've talked to like 10 qbs. I don't think 1.22 is enough to jump 16 spots from 1.21 to 1.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
germ-x Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Word on the street is Keenum has turned into the #1 target for Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncos67 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 31 minutes ago, germ-x said: Word on the street is Keenum has turned into the #1 target for Denver. Absolutely horrific if true. Although as has been mentioned, he could probably command a multi-year deal somewhere, and I'm not sure we'd give him more than 1 year guaranteed. But when people get desperate, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, broncos67 said: Absolutely horrific if true. Although as has been mentioned, he could probably command a multi-year deal somewhere, and I'm not sure we'd give him more than 1 year guaranteed. But when people get desperate, you never know. Kubiak was brought in to pimp his former player Case Keenum. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnAngryAmerican Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 41 minutes ago, broncos67 said: Absolutely horrific if true. Although as has been mentioned, he could probably command a multi-year deal somewhere, and I'm not sure we'd give him more than 1 year guaranteed. But when people get desperate, you never know. Agreed. That would be a terrible move for us. Keenum is an average QB who is just good enough, with a talented roster around him, to get us to the 7-9 to 9-7 range year in, year out. In other words, he's not good enough to make us a contender but he's not bad enough to lose his job and force us to look elsewhere. So we end up mired on the playoff bubble and drafting in the low-20s. We're Buffalo of the last 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said: Agreed. That would be a terrible move for us. Keenum is an average QB who is just good enough, with a talented roster around him, to get us to the 7-9 to 9-7 range year in, year out. In other words, he's not good enough to make us a contender but he's not bad enough to lose his job and force us to look elsewhere. So we end up mired on the playoff bubble and drafting in the low-20s. We're Buffalo of the last 20 years. Do you think its just leverage to show Cousins we have options? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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