2018 Free Agency Discussion Thread

[iLikeDefense]

2 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

So go for a stop-gap, veteran "bridge" QB and let the rookie develop for a year or two? 

Great idea. That allows us to waste another year of our defense, go somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7 which gets us neither anywhere closer to a Super Bowl but also keeps us out of the top half of the draft and will basically assure Vance gets fired. That way, we go into another offseason with a new coaching staff who brings all new schemes and approaches but we're hamstrung in that coaching search because whomever we hire is going to be married to the rookie we drafted but who never played and thus remains a complete unknown. And that coaching staff won't have any premium draft picks to get players who fit their scheme. 

Seriously, the mediocre veteran QB + whatever rookie QB falls to five is literally the worst decision this franchise could make. 

I totally get what you’re saying and I think if we can somehow get Rosen or Darnold at 5, they should absolutely start. If we strike out on Cousins, we are going to have to sign some QB to be the placeholder/or mentor. I think TT or Teddy B can be those guys on a short term deal. It’s all moot doe, Elway is reportedly going all in on Kirk. We can’t pay him cray money doe. If we can get him on a modest contract then that’s great. I’d rather have us take a gamble hoping Rosen and Darnold fall to 5 than sign Kirk. Spend that FA dough elsewhere.

edit: I also want Vance gone too. Only positives are if we suck next year is that he’s gone and we get another top pick.

[broncos67]

It seems like the tea leaves have Denver moving out of contention for Cousins. This is probably a net benefit when it comes to long-term roster construction. What is concerning is if we dump a ton of money into Case Keenum. Now, I will freely admit Keenum had a great year, and was put in a tremendous position to succeed. He could replicate that, but his career arc seems to suggest this season was an outlier. That said, if we got him as a bridge guy for a year, it wouldn't be the worst option, but I wouldn't commit to multiple years.

Tyrod Taylor is, IMO, our best option at QB. He's not a world beater by any means, but frankly, Tyrod is a dynamic player who offers mobility- something we haven't had in forever at the QB position- and he doesn't turn the ball over very much. He's accurate enough that with better WRs here he could succeed. He's someone Elway and Kubiak went after before. I think if you're looking for a bridge guy, it has to be him.

The other viable option is Bridgewater. Here's why. Teddy is still young, but he's a total question mark. Reports are that he was coming along strong in recovery, but he's the type of guy that is not likely to get a multi-year deal because of the question marks. The best approach here would be to sign Bridgewater, and see what he's got, while also drafting a young QB. If Teddy stinks, he's gone after a year and you have your QBOTF waiting in the wings. If Teddy hits, he can walk in FA, we get a comp pick, and you still have your QBOTF. I think this scenario carries more risk and is unlikely, but it's not necessarily a bad option.

Bad options would be- Bradford, Glennon, trading picks for Foles, etc...

[thebestever6]

25 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

It seems like the tea leaves have Denver moving out of contention for Cousins. This is probably a net benefit when it comes to long-term roster construction. What is concerning is if we dump a ton of money into Case Keenum. Now, I will freely admit Keenum had a great year, and was put in a tremendous position to succeed. He could replicate that, but his career arc seems to suggest this season was an outlier. That said, if we got him as a bridge guy for a year, it wouldn't be the worst option, but I wouldn't commit to multiple years.

Tyrod Taylor is, IMO, our best option at QB. He's not a world beater by any means, but frankly, Tyrod is a dynamic player who offers mobility- something we haven't had in forever at the QB position- and he doesn't turn the ball over very much. He's accurate enough that with better WRs here he could succeed. He's someone Elway and Kubiak went after before. I think if you're looking for a bridge guy, it has to be him.

The other viable option is Bridgewater. Here's why. Teddy is still young, but he's a total question mark. Reports are that he was coming along strong in recovery, but he's the type of guy that is not likely to get a multi-year deal because of the question marks. The best approach here would be to sign Bridgewater, and see what he's got, while also drafting a young QB. If Teddy stinks, he's gone after a year and you have your QBOTF waiting in the wings. If Teddy hits, he can walk in FA, we get a comp pick, and you still have your QBOTF. I think this scenario carries more risk and is unlikely, but it's not necessarily a bad option.

Bad options would be- Bradford, Glennon, trading picks for Foles, etc...

Bridgewater seems  like a likely choice don't see us signing a number 3 cb and Cousins.

[jsthomp2007]

Just got a feed from bleacher report that Kirk Cousins' agent says it is down to the Jets and Vikings.  I would say, go get Josh Allen and deal with it.  Until we get a competent HC, does it matter who the QB is?  

[thebestever6]

52 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

Just got a feed from bleacher report that Kirk Cousins' agent says it is down to the Jets and Vikings.  I would say, go get Josh Allen and deal with it.  Until we get a competent HC, does it matter who the QB is?  

I'm glad I hope  Kirk goes to the Jets for a 6 year $180 million  dollar contract.  $ 120 million guaranteed. So why can stop the he wants to win thing. 

For the jets it could work in 3 years with a front loaded deal.

[AnAngryAmerican]

The legal tampering period begins seven days from today. It's the pinnacle of lying season. Agents, especially, are leaking out whatever they can and "reporters" are reporting it to drive clicks/ratings/listens/re-tweets/etc. 

[broncos67]

17 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

The legal tampering period begins seven days from today. It's the pinnacle of lying season. Agents, especially, are leaking out whatever they can and "reporters" are reporting it to drive clicks/ratings/listens/re-tweets/etc. 

This is true, but I don't think Denver is going to get Cousins. We've got ourselves in a cap crunch right now, and we could sign him, but the roster cost is huge. There's a reason we're doing due diligence on every QB.

[AnAngryAmerican]

18 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

This is true, but I don't think Denver is going to get Cousins. We've got ourselves in a cap crunch right now, and we could sign him, but the roster cost is huge. There's a reason we're doing due diligence on every QB.

I'm coming around to this point of view too. The Fan is going crazy right now acting like it is 100% that Cousins is going to Minnesota because of some various rumors on Twitter and whatnot but I think it is the most-likely outcome. 

[broncos67]

2 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I'm coming around to this point of view too. The Fan is going crazy right now acting like it is 100% that Cousins is going to Minnesota because of some various rumors on Twitter and whatnot but I think it is the most-likely outcome. 

Yeah, I think some of the rumors have merit, but I don't think Denver is out of the running "officially." Cousins is probably more interested overall in playing for Denver than the Jets, but the Jets have the $$$$.

Still, I think Denver offers a good roster, but not as good as MIN, and good $$$, but not as good as NYJ. That's the issue- it's an "always the bridesmaid" type of thing.

[jsthomp2007]

1 hour ago, broncos67 said:

This is true, but I don't think Denver is going to get Cousins. We've got ourselves in a cap crunch right now, and we could sign him, but the roster cost is huge. There's a reason we're doing due diligence on every QB.

You are right...you are always right. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

1 hour ago, broncos67 said:

Yeah, I think some of the rumors have merit, but I don't think Denver is out of the running "officially." Cousins is probably more interested overall in playing for Denver than the Jets, but the Jets have the $$$$.

Still, I think Denver offers a good roster, but not as good as MIN, and good $$$, but not as good as NYJ. That's the issue- it's an "always the bridesmaid" type of thing.

I read someone (don’t remember where, someone national not local) that they think Cousins will come to Denver because the pressure in Minnesota given their roster would be extreme. The writer obviously knows nothing about the Broncos fan base or the how the local media is about the Broncos. But a reason for Cousins go go to Minnesota is he wouldn’t be playing in the shadow of Elway and Peyton. 

[Broncofan]

48 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I read someone (don’t remember where, someone national not local) that they think Cousins will come to Denver because the pressure in Minnesota given their roster would be extreme. The writer obviously knows nothing about the Broncos fan base or the how the local media is about the Broncos. But a reason for Cousins go go to Minnesota is he wouldn’t be playing in the shadow of Elway and Peyton. 

Cousins said his #1 target was MIN if the $ was similar on national XM radio.  That piece sure sounds like lying season material - not shooting the messenger, but takes like that are just bad journalism.   No source or reason provided or history / personal relationship to go off, just wild speculation.   

[AnAngryAmerican]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Cousins said his #1 target was MIN if the $ was similar on national XM radio.  That piece sure sounds like lying season material - not shooting the messenger, but takes like that are just bad journalism.   No source or reason provided or history / personal relationship to go off, just wild speculation.   

Found it! It was a post on The Big Lead, a sports blog whose publisher is on FS1 on one of those “embrace debate” shows. 

So, yeah, garbage. 

[paul-mac]

8 hours ago, broncos67 said:

It seems like the tea leaves have Denver moving out of contention for Cousins. This is probably a net benefit when it comes to long-term roster construction. What is concerning is if we dump a ton of money into Case Keenum. Now, I will freely admit Keenum had a great year, and was put in a tremendous position to succeed. He could replicate that, but his career arc seems to suggest this season was an outlier. That said, if we got him as a bridge guy for a year, it wouldn't be the worst option, but I wouldn't commit to multiple years.

Tyrod Taylor is, IMO, our best option at QB. He's not a world beater by any means, but frankly, Tyrod is a dynamic player who offers mobility- something we haven't had in forever at the QB position- and he doesn't turn the ball over very much. He's accurate enough that with better WRs here he could succeed. He's someone Elway and Kubiak went after before. I think if you're looking for a bridge guy, it has to be him.

The other viable option is Bridgewater. Here's why. Teddy is still young, but he's a total question mark. Reports are that he was coming along strong in recovery, but he's the type of guy that is not likely to get a multi-year deal because of the question marks. The best approach here would be to sign Bridgewater, and see what he's got, while also drafting a young QB. If Teddy stinks, he's gone after a year and you have your QBOTF waiting in the wings. If Teddy hits, he can walk in FA, we get a comp pick, and you still have your QBOTF. I think this scenario carries more risk and is unlikely, but it's not necessarily a bad option.

Bad options would be- Bradford, Glennon, trading picks for Foles, etc...

 

I’d be fine with Keenum on two conditions, the first is that there’s no guaranteed money after 2018, and the second is that we still have the intention of drafting a QB and letting him start this year if he’s ready. That’s the situations that Mike Glennon and Sam Bradford found themselves in the last two seasons and both served to be short term starting options before being discarded when the rookie was ready. Tyrod Taylor I would throw into this mix as well.

 

Bridgewater though is a terrible option for me. When he was healthy he was basically the same guy that Trevor Siemian has been as a starter, and that was before a devastating knee injury. We may as well keep Siemian if that was the case.

 

Honestly the clear best option for me here is to sign a starting calibre QB to a contract that has no guaranteed money outside of the first year, and costs in the region of £15-£18m. This could be Keenum, Taylor, Sam Bradford, Josh McCown (preferably not Bridgewater or McCarron, we want someone who’s proven to be at least decent). Don’t trade for Foles unless Elway thinks he can be a franchise QB, Eagles are saying 1st and 4th for him, you aren’t sending that if he’s just a stop gap. So if we get one of those first four guys I mentioned, then you draft one of Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield (I’m terrified of Josh Allen due to the Osweiler/Lynch comp) and you hope the rookie wins the starting job. 

[Broncofan]

37 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

 

I’d be fine with Keenum on two conditions, the first is that there’s no guaranteed money after 2018, and the second is that we still have the intention of drafting a QB and letting him start this year if he’s ready. That’s the situations that Mike Glennon and Sam Bradford found themselves in the last two seasons and both served to be short term starting options before being discarded when the rookie was ready. Tyrod Taylor I would throw into this mix as well.

 

Bridgewater though is a terrible option for me. When he was healthy he was basically the same guy that Trevor Siemian has been as a starter, and that was before a devastating knee injury. We may as well keep Siemian if that was the case.

 

Honestly the clear best option for me here is to sign a starting calibre QB to a contract that has no guaranteed money outside of the first year, and costs in the region of £15-£18m. This could be Keenum, Taylor, Sam Bradford, Josh McCown (preferably not Bridgewater or McCarron, we want someone who’s proven to be at least decent). Don’t trade for Foles unless Elway thinks he can be a franchise QB, Eagles are saying 1st and 4th for him, you aren’t sending that if he’s just a stop gap. So if we get one of those first four guys I mentioned, then you draft one of Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield (I’m terrified of Josh Allen due to the Osweiler/Lynch comp) and you hope the rookie wins the starting job. 

Here's the thing though - a one-year stopgap QB with no guaranteed $ is probably not worth even 15M.    And since we don't know which rookie QB we're getting, we shouldn't be signing them until after the draft.

We know Cousins is signing soon after FA opens.   The next guy seems to be Keenum on the wish list, especially for teams with no shot of getting a top 4 QB (Jackson being #5).   Those are the teams that would be interested in Keenum - and there are likely at least 1-2 (BUF, ARI, etc.).   As such, I don't see how he only gets a 1-year deal of guaranteed $.   CLE, because of Hue Jackson's ties to McCarron, I'm really convinced they're locking in.   Hue Jackson is already on record saying he doesn't want a rookie starting Week 1, and loves McCarron.   The fit there is like a glove.

The 1-year stopgap vet we get will be a guy who basically is left still unsigned when the draft comes calling - 4-5 teams won't likely sign a vet until they know which rookie they get (other than CLE locking into McCarron).   That means settling for whoever gets left over after other teams who don't see a rookie starter as viable, but need a starting QB, get the next tier - Keenum being firmly there.   ARI, BUF, whoever.   That means someone who's not going to be nearly as noteworthy - maybe it's McCown (because he's only really got 1-2 years left, and iffy if he had to play 16 games, how he'd hold up).   Maybe it's Bradford and his bad knee with a degenerative condition.   Maybe it's Bridgewater, because his leg injury and 2+ years off scares the heck out of the other teams.   The key part though is that whoever is left behind is likely going to be cheap.   

Another factor is that this year, the stopgap QB market is actually buyer-friendly.   Last year, it was entirely QB-friendly.  Glennon got 14M because the next-best option was a retired Jay Cutler (Bradford, Bridgewater, Keenum, Taylor, McCown were all under contract) - and CHI had $ to burn in their cap.   If we wait until the draft, I suspect much like Cutler & MIA, we'd get a 8-10M deal done - but with a guy no other team sees as its' first choice to start (Bradford, Taylor, McCown type guys).  If it's a literal backup plan / possible 4-6 week starter (which I hope wouldn't be necessary), and the other teams have signed their starters, and we're dealing with who's left, it wouldn't surprise me at all that we have 2-3 guys still unsigned - and then we find better value, and a guy we have no problem parting ways with, or benching once the rookie is ready - even if it's Week 1.   A Keenum or even McCarron signing would never fly with our objectives; they are signing to play Week 1 and beyond (Keenum longer than McCarron, obv).

It also doesn't really make any sense for us to sign a vet when we have no idea who our rookie QB will be.   I would be very surprised if we did sign any QB pre-draft (assuming we lose out on Cousins, obviously, but I think that's a given at this stage).    That alone will disqualify guys who are actually in demand - Keenum (other teams) & McCarron (CLE).  I'd fully expect they also get multi-year deals with guaranteed money, which disqualifies them on our count.    The good news is that with so many vets, there will be guys left unsigned by Draft Day.

If we are investing in a rookie at 1.5, to pay for even a 15-18M 1-year stopgap guy is wasted money - there's a really good chance our rookie will be starting this year, no need to go nuts on the vet commitment.   Plus, the guys in demand will get more than 1 year of guaranteed $.  If we are going rookie 1.5, we should expect to pair it with a guy who's either really at the end of his career (McCown) who might settle for a 1-year deal, or a guy with such huge Q marks, only teams with a rookie ready to start soon is considering him (maybe Bradford, given his knee).    The beauty with this approach, is that we also not lock into big $, by having the other teams take their QB, and so we don't overpay.    If we're invested into rookie at 1.5, it makes zero sense to lay out that cash, even for 1 year.