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Defense - Raising the Barr


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In total defense, the Vikings are giving up 280.9 yards per game, and have a 47-yard lead over second-place Denver and a 132-yard lead over third-place Jacksonville. In scoring defense, the Vikings are allowing 16.3 points per game, and have a 11-point lead over second-place Jacksonville and a 20-point lead over the third-place Los Angeles Chargers.

https://www.twincities.com/2017/12/29/alan-page-carl-eller-liken-vikings-defense-to-purple-people-eaters/

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On 12/26/2017 at 10:14 PM, JDBrocks said:

Yep, that’s right. I used the season averages rather than the raw number. Math is hard.

Naw, math is easy!  Just remember that there are three types of people in this world: those who are good at math, and those who are not.

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The Vikings defense is very good in general, but especially good at home, and especially especially good if you ignore the yards and points they've allowed in garbage time situations (last 10 minutes of the Saints game, 2nd half of the Bucs game, last drives of the Packers, Ravens and Rams games, everything after the 1st quarter of the Bengals game). Some stats I posted to twitter:

Points allowed game by game:

19*,  17,  14,  10,  16*,  7,  7*

*includes garbage time TD allowed

Averaging 12.9 PPG against

Excluding the 3 garbage time TDs (NO, BAL, CIN), averaging 9.9 PPG against

...

Vikings defense at home, yards allowed in each game:

  • 344 (168 yards in 4Q after leading 26-9)
  • 342 (195 after leading 28-3)
  • 251 (loss to DET)
  • 227 (84 last drive leading 23-10)
  • 208 (68 last drive leading 24-9)
  • 254 (54 last drive leading 24-7)
  • 161 (55 last 2 drives leading 34-0)

...

Vikings defense at home:

  • 77 drives against
  • 8 TDs, 11 FGs allowed (1 TD scored)
  • 8 INTs, 1 fumble recovered
  • 4 drives ended on downs
  • 40 punts
  • 262 yds/game
  • 23.82 yds/drive
  • 1.19 pts/drive
  • Drive success rate: 0.619

...

Vikings defense at home when tied, trailing or leading by 14 points or less (using that cutoff to exclude garbage time):

  • 59 drives
  • 3 TDs, 10 FGs allowed (1 TD scored)
  • 6 INTs, 1 fumble recovered
  • 2 drives ended on downs
  • 32 punts
  • 173.6 yds/game
  • 20.6 yds/drive
  • 1.19 pts/drive
  • Drive success rate: 0.566

3 TDs all year. Under 200 yards/game.

...

Vikings defense at home:

  • 4.36 yards/play
  • rushing: 413 yards, 2.91 YPC, 3 TDs
  • passing*: 63.5%, 1546 yards, 6.2 YPA, 5 TDs, 8 INTs, 23 sacks, rating 74.1

*QBs faced: Brees, Winston, Stafford, Rodgers/Hundley, Flacco, Goff, Dalton/McCarron

...

Vikings defense at home when tied, trailing or leading by 14 points or less:

  • 3.99 yards/play
  • rushing: 360 yards, 2.95 YPC, 2 TDs
  • passing: 59.7%, 942 yards, 5.9 YPA, 1 TD, 6 INT, 17 sacks, rating 62.9

...

Vikings 3rd down defense at home:

  • conversions: 22/87 --> 25.3%
  • 3.47 yards/play
  • rushing: 10 for 24 yards, 2 first downs
  • passing: 52.3%, 366 yards, 5.6 YPA, 1 TD, 4 INTs, 12 sacks, rating 48.6

...

Vikings 3rd down defense at home when tied, trailing or leading by 14 points or less:

  • conversions: 15/66 --> 22.2%
  • 2.39 yards/play
  • rushing: 9 for 20 yards, 2 first downs
  • passing: 48.9%, 211 yards, 4.5 YPA, 1 TD, 4 INTs, 10 sacks, rating 33.2

...

Those 3rd down numbers in close/trailing situations are insanely good.

They have a very good chance of winning every playoff home game they get this year. 

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3 hours ago, Krauser said:

Averaging 12.9 PPG against

Excluding the 3 garbage time TDs (NO, BAL, CIN), averaging 9.9 PPG against

first of all, lovely breakdowns, Krauser, thank you.

 

i believe we had a defense one year in the 70's era that only allowed 10 points per game or so. to do the same now, in the modern age of the offense friendly NFL looking for high scores, splashy plays, and replay highlights all week long is... actually quite phenomenal.

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3 hours ago, Krauser said:

Points allowed game by game:

19*,  17,  14,  10,  16*,  7,  7*

*includes garbage time TD allowed

Averaging 12.9 PPG against

Excluding the 3 garbage time TDs (NO, BAL, CIN), averaging 9.9 PPG against

I wanted to do a similar breakdown, because in addition, I feel like some teams usually strike early on us.

Saints scored 3 of 19 on first possession
Buccaneers scored 3 of 17  on first possession
Rams scored 7 of 7 on first possession.

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11 minutes ago, Klomp said:

I wanted to do a similar breakdown, because in addition, I feel like some teams usually strike early on us.

Saints scored 3 of 19 on first possession
Buccaneers scored 3 of 17  on first possession
Rams scored 7 of 7 on first possession.

Excluding scores early or in garbage time is misleading unless you perform the same adjustments to EACH NFL team, and each season; e.g. 1970's PPE defense.

IIRC, the 1969 or 1971 PPE defense allowed ~10 ppg, but some GT scores removed would lower that because only 14 games were played in a season, and each TD scored in GT that is removed would lower the avg by 0.5 (=7/14).  Censoring data leads to misinterpretations or useless info; e.g. if not for 4 wrong numbers last week, I would have won the Powerball lottery!

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Its just refreshing watching the Vikes defense get off the field on 3rd down. Wasn't too long ago that 3rd downs seemed automatic against the defense. Some of the stats getting posted are mind boggling and making me more confident that they could be the number 1 defense for years to come. SKOL Vikings!!

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3 minutes ago, Scottish_Viking said:

Its just refreshing watching the Vikes defense get off the field on 3rd down. 

YES! i was saying that over and over yesterday, watching the game.

you could see the spring in the steps of our D players, they were like gleeful kids.

 

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Think back to 1987, 1988, 1998 and 2009 .  . . take a moment to compare those teams to this 2017 Vikes squad.  Remember in the late '80s how the defense was dominant, but the O was shaky?   Those Jerry Burns coached teams weren't as talented at the QB and RB positions as other rosters, but that defense had DBs and DL beyond compare . . . well, actually, this defense has Barr and Kendricks at LB, and I'd say those two are better than Studwell-Merriweather.

The '98 team was barely serviceable defensively, and on offense that team had an ailing Robert Smith going into the playoffs.  Most importantly, that team had a HC that checked-out in the NFC Conference Championship.  

The '09 team was nearly as balanced as '17, but they had one glitch . . . their last 4 games, didn't go well and you could sense a lack of confidence going into the playoffs.  

This team is playing unbelievably confident on both offense and defense.  Any one of these last 8 games, they could've floundered hard, but they didn't.  Sure, there was a loss on the road to Carolina . . . a game they didn't play well in, and still had a chance to take the lead late.  That loss seems to have elevated the "team-ness" for this '17 squad . . . quite frankly, I see these guys playing as wicked as the those reknowned Bucs, Ravens and Steelers teams.

So, as the post-season evolves, let's hope they keep things light-hearted, but serious . . . lol.

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