Broncos rumors

[thebestever6]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Landry is just a slot receiver though, and not a great RZ guy - his 8 TD's this year look very much like an outlier.    He's just not worth 16M/1...and remember, CLE hasn't inked him to an extension yet, either - but even if they do, it's a bad value.    Again, CLE has 100M - but with deals like that, they aren't going to have that space for much longer - and then the guys they kept aren't values.    And yes they had all those early picks - but 3.1 for a 1-year guy, and 4.1 for Landry, they're quickly depleting the draft stock...without much inherent value, given the 1-year stay with Taylor, and over-market price for Landry.

Taylor's deal was restructured to void 5 days after this new year begins.  He's a 2019 UFA.  He was targeted specifically so he could be a 1-year bridge, as per CLE's beat reporters and national reporters like Rapsheet.

Honestly san fran has spent 39 million this offseason and looks likely to sign sherman. I really can't  see where they're spending their money.  Cleveland the only issues I have is,trading Shelton for pennies which they can't help he's not a system fit. Also the taylor trade left me shaking my head.

I think the Browns had had a better offseason tbh. Taylor is only getting 15 mill for one season. It's kinda a similar situation when we tried to trade for Colin K. I also like,the Landry signing, and love the Kizer trade.

[Broncofan]

14 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Honestly san fran has spent 39 million this offseason and looks likely to sign sherman. I really can't  see where they're spending their money.  Cleveland the only issues I have is,trading Shelton for pennies which they can't help he's not a system fit. Also the taylor trade left me shaking my head.

I think the Browns had had a better offseason tbh. Taylor is only getting 15 mill for one season. It's kinda a similar situation when we tried to trade for Colin K. I also like,the Landry signing, and love the Kizer trade.

If you are judging by 2018 alone - CLE will have made the most significant moves.  Here's the thing - their assets given up are 3-4 year assets of production.   The moves they make aren't enough to make them 2018 contenders, and even 6-10 would be a great result.   8-8 amazing.   But then after 2018, Landry's value at 14M+ goes down - and Taylor's gone after his 2018 contract is up, beat reporters confirmed.   And Randall's a UFA.   So they need to keep hitting on value with the talent they get for 2019+, none of the guys except maybe Landry at 14M will be around - when their window should open up, if they draft well.  But therein lies the other rub - Dorsey's selling picks at way below value given the rentals or huge-priced guys he's bringing in...when there were better values at cheaper prices (don't cost picks) IMO.   

Fast forward to 2019 - none of those guys acquired are locked in.   And so you say, big deal, CLE has the $ - except they are just overpaying for production.   That catches up in a hurry.   And that's before you get to the fact they kept the most inept part of their FO/coaching staff around - Hue Jackson.   

It's too bad, GM Brown had a 3-year plan, and executed it with great precision and conviction - his only real whiff was missing on Conklin (but again having Joe Thomas, that's an easy mistake to make, even though I"m a huge BPA proponent no one saw Conklin's rise to be this good coming) and Watson - and that whiff no one saw coming.   And ironically, Hue Jackson signed off on those decisions without any objections, he's confirmed as much (as he did Wentz, but Wentz trade got them 5 starters, and still 1.4 and 2.32 still left).   He saved Hue Jackson and CLE from paying 2.1 for McCarron when it wasn't needed - and got fired for it.   He also told Jimmy Haslem it would take 3 years - but Haslem bailed on that plan.   But his moves created the pick wealth and cap wealth that made starting the turnaround possible.    So far, GM Dorsey's acquisition of Rollins is the one move that's a nobrainer....the future return beyond 2018, meh so far.    Overpaying to make a statement / changing the brand is OK 1-2x.  But Dorsey's pattern here is exactly the same in KC - and overpaying and being tone-deaf to cap value and trade/FA value is what killed Dorsey in his KC tenure.   That's a major warning sign that it's the same MO we're seeing so far.  It's too bad, out of all the AFC teams, I'd root from their fanbase the most - they deserve some success after so much misery.  We'll see, but I suspect Dorsey's results after 2019 will make the fanbase wish Haslem had kept Brown and canned Hue, and not the other way around.

[thebestever6]

13 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

If you are judging by 2018 alone - CLE will have made the most significant moves.  Here's the thing - their assets given up are 3-4 year assets of production.   The moves they make aren't enough to make them 2018 contenders, and even 6-10 would be a great result.   8-8 amazing.   But then after 2018, Landry's value at 14M+ goes down - and Taylor's gone after his 2018 contract is up, beat reporters confirmed.   And Randall's a UFA.   So they need to keep hitting on value with the talent they get for 2019+, none of the guys except maybe Landry at 14M will be around - when their window should open up, if they draft well.  But therein lies the other rub - Dorsey's selling picks at way below value given the rentals or huge-priced guys he's bringing in...when there were better values at cheaper prices (don't cost picks) IMO.   

Fast forward to 2019 - none of those guys acquired are locked in.   And so you say, big deal, CLE has the $ - except they are just overpaying for production.   That catches up in a hurry.   And that's before you get to the fact they kept the most inept part of their FO/coaching staff around - Hue Jackson.   

It's too bad, GM Brown had a 3-year plan, and executed it with great precision and conviction - his only real whiff was missing on Conklin (but again having Joe Thomas, that's an easy mistake to make, even though I"m a huge BPA proponent no one saw Conklin's rise to be this good coming) and Watson - and that whiff no one saw coming.   And ironically, Hue Jackson signed off on those decisions without any objections, he's confirmed as much (as he did Wentz, but Wentz trade got them 5 starters, and still 1.4 and 2.32 still left).   He saved Hue Jackson and CLE from paying 2.1 for McCarron when it wasn't needed - and got fired for it.   He also told Jimmy Haslem it would take 3 years - but Haslem bailed on that plan.   But his moves created the pick wealth and cap wealth that made starting the turnaround possible.    So far, GM Dorsey's acquisition of Rollins is the one move that's a nobrainer....the future return beyond 2018, meh so far.    Overpaying to make a statement / changing the brand is OK 1-2x.  But Dorsey's pattern here is exactly the same in KC - and overpaying and being tone-deaf to cap value and trade/FA value is what killed Dorsey in his KC tenure.   That's a major warning sign that it's the same MO we're seeing so far.  It's too bad, out of all the AFC teams, I'd root from their fanbase the most - they deserve some success after so much misery.  We'll see, but I suspect Dorsey's results after 2019 will make the fanbase wish Haslem had kept Brown and canned Hue, and not the other way around.

I think sashi browns way was the best still think dorseys way is better than Lynches signing one guy with 7 starts to a huge deal. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

I think sashi browns way was the best still think dorseys way is better than Lynches signing one guy with 7 starts to a huge deal. 

Lynch's commitment to JimmyG is certainly bold, but Lynch's way is also 100x more likely to succeed than Dorsey's.   Why?  Because he's also committing to the future build - and he's also not overpaying for other talent at non-premium positions, and finding value where he can.   Getting a 3rd/4th to move down 1 spot and get the guy he wanted at 1.3 in Solomon Thomas.   Getting Reuben Foster at 1.31 just ahead of NO, who had him on the line.   Finding FA gems like Marquise Goodwin for cheap deals.

And the result?  Even with JimmyG on the books, SF's cap space the next 3 years - 70M, 82M and 118M.   Yup, that's right.   He's got JimmyG locked up for a pretty penny - but his team has incredible cap health, and has accumulated pick value along the way - they did an awesome job in his rookie year, I can't wait to see how he fares with even more acumen gained.

And while the Sherman deal just announced sounds steep - the key is in the guaranteed $ - so far, all we know is there's a really small signing bonus at 5M.  That is usually associated with an incentive-laden deal where only 1 year is fully guaranteed.   Like our deal with Okung.   Gotta wait to hear the details, though.   But I expect that deal to be team-friendly after Year 1, reflecting the principles Lynch has used.

Brown's method was the right way for CLE to rebuild, and the owner cut bait at Year 2 in a 3-year plan, and now instead has a GM who disregards building value the way GM Brown had in mind. 4 deals, and none of them have a guy locked up for 2019, and the only guy with a reasonable likelihood is overvalued (no matter how good, no slot guy is worth 14-16M a year).   GM Lynch is willing to invest in elite players to lock them up at premium positions - but also has managed the cap to keep value in mind - thus the insane cap #'s they still have left even after the JimmyG deal.   

Give me Lynch's & Brown's way every day of the week - it's what will sustain success.   Dorsey's method is only possible with Brown's work - and he's doing a poor job of extracting even fair value.   That's fine if you can renew the deep pick/cap pools with other moves, but nothing in Dorsey's time in KC says he can do that - the exact opposite has happened (cap hell and horrible trade/FA value deals).  And this is on a team with no realistic hope of 2018 contention, it should be 2019+ based.   SMH.

 Give me Lynch & Brown 100x over on the Dorseys of the world.

[Broncofan]

Just to go full circle on Lynch, this is the deal he just got for Sherman...didn't have to spend a pick, and look at the terms...

So he just basically paid 7M if Sherman isn't close to back, and 3M more if he plays.  That's it. 10M/1 year.  If he's a Pro Bowl CB, he's well worth the 3M bonus.  But no risk.  Financial cap health preserved.  Plus, if Sherman is decent, he's kept for 3 years - but all the risk on Sherman, not the 49ers.  

Add the cheap Goodwin WR extension, the great draft values he's found last year that are on rookie deals, you can see how he can afford to pay a premium for the premium QB position.    This is exemplary, and exactly opposite to how Dorsey has gone about his offseason.  Give me Lynch 100x over.  Tip my cap.

[germ-x]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Just to go full circle on Lynch, this is the deal he just got for Sherman...didn't have to spend a pick, and look at the terms...

So he just basically paid 7M if Sherman isn't close to back, and 3M more if he plays.  That's it. 10M/1 year.  If he's a Pro Bowl CB, he's well worth the 3M bonus.  But no risk.  Financial cap health preserved.  Plus, if Sherman is decent, he's kept for 3 years - but all the risk on Sherman, not the 49ers.  

Add the cheap Goodwin WR extension, the great draft values he's found last year that are on rookie deals, you can see how he can afford to pay a premium for the premium QB position.    This is exemplary, and exactly opposite to how Dorsey has gone about his offseason.  Give me Lynch 100x over.  Tip my cap.

I’m not saying it won’t work out, but Lynch to this point is getting incredibly overrated.  The 49ers were on a Cleveland Browns pace until they got a real QB on the roster. They didn’t win a game until Jimmy G. was acquired and playing.

They did have 3 good draft picks in Foster, Witherspoon, and Kittle.  But Thomas (my favorite player in last years draft, which tells you what I know) was awful.  Foster (which I included in part of the 3 good picks) was exceptional but has 3 major incidents in the span of a year and has character issues dating back to HS which is why he was available at 31.  As of now only Witherspoon and Kittle produced this year and seem like long term solid contributors.

You can’t count out the 2016 draft class, but the early returns when you throw in Foster’s off the field crap isn’t what it’s made out to be.

Jimmy G. has made Lynch look terrific and it was a terrific move, without that trade the 49ers may have the #1 pick in the draft.

Oh, the difference a QB makes.

 

[Broncofan]

27 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I’m not saying it won’t work out, but Lynch to this point is getting incredibly overrated.  The 49ers were on a Cleveland Browns pace until they got a real QB on the roster. They didn’t win a game until Jimmy G. was acquired and playing.

They did have 3 good draft picks in Foster, Witherspoon, and Kittle.  But Thomas (my favorite player in last years draft, which tells you what I know) was awful.  Foster (which I included in part of the 3 good picks) was exceptional but has 3 major incidents in the span of a year and has character issues dating back to HS which is why he was available at 31.  As of now only Witherspoon and Kittle produced this year and seem like long term solid contributors.

You can’t count out the 2016 draft class, but the early returns when you throw in Foster’s off the field crap isn’t what it’s made out to be.

Jimmy G. has made Lynch look terrific and it was a terrific move, without that trade the 49ers may have the #1 pick in the draft.

Oh, the difference a QB makes.

 

The key part of his decision though - he didn't reach for QB at 1.3, though.  And yes, JimmyG was a gift from NE.  That accelerates the curve.

But the cap health to keep building his team is no fluke, either.   He's locked into a multi-year plan, and he's following through.   As for Thomas, he missed OTA's because of the NFL's really, really stupid rules on underclassmen not being able to attend until they graduate, then was hurt with a MCL sprain just as his play started to catch up, that really pushed his recovery back.  The OTA part put him way behind the development curve, and then the MCL delayed it again.  SF's D was completely different once Thomas and Foster were back together after Week 12.  JimmyG's play fueled the SF O resurgence - but Foster & Thomas were the key to their D suddenly being good.  I would not think of calling him a bust, or worry about him yet.  This year should see a big bump in his play with a full offseason under his belt.

As for the rest of the draft - remember that Year 1 is a redshirt year from anyone but your 1st rounders.  So, Kittle & Weatherspoon's contributions were ahead of the curve.   To have 3 great performances, and understanding the context with Thomas, that's a fantastic draft result if those are the only hits.   It's more than likely though that Lynch gets really nice production from WR Trent Taylor, a 5th round slot guy, who looks polished and ready to help, and is a plus on ST return, and their UDFA RB Matt Breida, is going to be a very good 3rd down/COP guy (they took a chance and whiffed on a character flag in RB Joe Williams, but only because HC Shanahan pounded the table - that's on him).   So there's a really good chance they get 5-6 starters (or 5 starters) with good play and Breida.  That's a great result.  And that's not counting anyone else helping...like CJ Beathard, who's no starter, but looks like he should be a decent backup (those are still valuable).

The draft can't be fully judged for 2 years at the earliest, and they have 3 great perforamances already, good context for Thomas' slow start, and 2 other guys ready to help.  Look deeper, and Lynch earns the praise....especially when you add in the Marquise Goodwin FA signing, and the overall roster building which gives them 70, 82M and 115M in cap room the next 3 years...AFTER JimmyG was extended.   He doesn't have to hit on his choices at 80+ percent, because he's also not committing them to cap hell, or overpaying for guys value-wise.  Elway deserves credit in this area too, it's certainly not a universal GM skill.

And before people think I'm saying the above is all on Lynch's alone - it's not.  He's been smart enough to hire football people around him to help learn and adapt.  But that's also a sign of a great leader - surround yourself with smart people and learn from them, rather than just think you're smarter than anyone else.   That's the model for sustained success.  Full marks.

[thebestever6]

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

The key part of his decision though - he didn't reach for QB at 1.3, though.  And yes, JimmyG was a gift from NE.  That accelerates the curve.

But the cap health to keep building his team is no fluke, either.   He's locked into a multi-year plan, and he's following through.   As for Thomas, he missed OTA's because of the NFL's really, really stupid rules on underclassmen not being able to attend until they graduate, then was hurt with a MCL sprain just as his play started to catch up, that really pushed his recovery back.  The OTA part put him way behind the development curve, and then the MCL delayed it again.  SF's D was completely different once Thomas and Foster were back together after Week 12.  JimmyG's play fueled the SF O resurgence - but Foster & Thomas were the key to their D suddenly being good.  I would not think of calling him a bust, or worry about him yet.  This year should see a big bump in his play with a full offseason under his belt.

As for the rest of the draft - remember that Year 1 is a redshirt year from anyone but your 1st rounders.  So, Kittle & Weatherspoon's contributions were ahead of the curve.   To have 3 great performances, and understanding the context with Thomas, that's a fantastic draft result if those are the only hits.   It's more than likely though that Lynch gets really nice production from WR Trent Taylor, a 5th round slot guy, who looks polished and ready to help, and is a plus on ST return, and their UDFA RB Matt Breida, is going to be a very good 3rd down/COP guy (they took a chance and whiffed on a character flag in RB Joe Williams, but only because HC Shanahan pounded the table - that's on him).   So there's a really good chance they get 5-6 starters (or 5 starters) with good play and Breida.  That's a great result.  And that's not counting anyone else helping...like CJ Beathard, who's no starter, but looks like he should be a decent backup (those are still valuable).

The draft can't be fully judged for 2 years at the earliest, and they have 3 great perforamances already, good context for Thomas' slow start, and 2 other guys ready to help.  Look deeper, and Lynch earns the praise....especially when you add in the Marquise Goodwin FA signing, and the overall roster building which gives them 70, 82M and 115M in cap room the next 3 years...AFTER JimmyG was extended.   He doesn't have to hit on his choices at 80+ percent, because he's also not committing them to cap hell, or overpaying for guys value-wise.  Elway deserves credit in this area too, it's certainly not a universal GM skill.

And before people think I'm saying the above is all on Lynch's alone - it's not.  He's been smart enough to hire football people around him to help learn and adapt.  But that's also a sign of a great leader - surround yourself with smart people and learn from them, rather than just think you're smarter than anyone else.   That's the model for sustained success.  Full marks.

I guess why Im not sold on Lynch or the Niners is because 9 out of 10 times if you're not New England you win a title because franchise qb is on a rookie deal. I get it Jimmy G played well and the niners won 6 games when it didn't look promising at the start. I just don't know what's jimmy g and what's  Kyle. Kyle extracted all the talent in the world out of Matt Ryan.

I also think where they were in the draft and the fact their roster had so many holes helps. It's  easy to say a team is going bpa when they have so many holes if I'm  a gm when you start filling and making your roster at some point in the draft you gotta draft on upside.

[DiehardBronxFan]

When did the Broncos Rumors thread turn into a Niners Front office evaluation thread?

[Wolzen]

Agreed. Let' get back on topic. 

[jolly red giant]

2 hours ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

When did the Broncos Rumors thread turn into a Niners Front office evaluation thread?

Well - Shanahan should have been the HC and Lynch should have been hired as Elway's anointed successor.

[broncofan48]

Rotoworld via Michael Giardi:

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6517/nate-solder

Us and Houston most interested in Solder

[AnAngryAmerican]

1 hour ago, broncofan48 said:

Rotoworld via Michael Giardi:

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6517/nate-solder

Us and Houston most interested in Solder

Really? Houston is interested in someone from New England? You could knock me over with a feather. 

[jsthomp2007]

 Did I just see a different Denver Broncos' logo on NFL Network...the horse main had two shades of orange and the blue was a bit lighter than normal.  I am just sayen...

[paul-mac]

2 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Really? Houston is interested in someone from New England? You could knock me over with a feather. 

Disgusting isn’t it. I saw that Detroit are interested in Dion Lewis. Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia are going to be the latest coach-GM pairing to try and build a fake version of the Patriots. I look forward to 2-3 years down the road when it fails spectacularly and both men are fired.