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Ask Keyser - 2017 Fantasy Questions Thread


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2 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Yes or no....Do you get RB2 production out of jeremy Hill for the first 2 weeks of the season? Standard scoring...

I certainly wouldn't draft him with that expectation, but I wouldn't put it past him. The Bengals OLine as a whole should see some regression from last season, so you're banking on Hill having "figure it out" over the offseason. He just doesn't display the same confidence in his vision as he did his rookie season. The game seems to have actually gotten faster for him. Hill's big calling card has been his redzone efficiency, but if Mixon even takes a third of those attempts away from him (which he should, even early on) Hill's value is squandered. Personally, the only reason I'm drafting Hill is if I drafted Mixon earlier OR if he clearly falls further than he should. 

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3 hours ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

I think some people are way too high on Pryor.  He's going super early in a lot of the mocks I've done, and I just read @bianconero's post saying Pryor would cement himself in the same tier as Brown and Beckham next year.  That's just not going to happen IMO.  People forget that Kirk has plenty of other good weapons around him: Reed, Crowder, Doctson, and Thompson.  Cousins has never been the type of QB to force feed the ball to one player as Eli has done with OBJ or Ben has done with Brown.  Gruden has also been adamant that he wants to run the ball more this year, which is why he told Fat Rob he needed to slim down this offseason.  I love Pryor's upside this year, and I think he will cement himself as a top 10 #1 WR in the league, but I don't think it will be reflected in his stats.  It will be reflected much more-so on film, which will disappoint a lot of fantasy football players that reached for him early.

On another note, I don't know why people are so high on McVay giving a huge boost to Gurley.  For one, McVay has never shown he can stay disciplined and committed to the run game when it's not working early.  Second, McVay didn't even design the run plays for the Redskins - Bill Callahan did.  Third, McVay can't suddenly transport the Redskins OL to the Rams.  Williams, Scherff, and Moses were the biggest reasons for the run game working when it did, which honestly wasn't all that often.  As we saw in the Rams' first preseason game, that OL was whiffing on blocks all over the place, and Gurley was getting hit in the backfield (I believe this even happened on his first carry).  I just don't think McVay will be the savior to that Rams' rushing attack that people are expecting.

Definitely agree with you that Pryor is getting greatly overrated. Incredibly talented, yes, but he's entering the first year under this offense as arguably 3rd on the target totem pole when everyone is healthy (Kirk loves him some Reed and Crowder). I also don't see Kirk throwing 600+ times again this year. With that said, Pryor is undoubtedly going to have some monster weeks. 

You make good points about McVay. However, what he is excellent at is spacing, and it's what the previous regime was so terrible at. It's that spacing that should allow Gurley slightly more breathing room than he's had the past 2 seasons, and even slightly more space for a back of Gurley's caliber can be a huge difference. McVay will design concepts that get Gurley in space, both in the run and pass game, and the acquisition of Watkins will greatly limit defenses propensity for loading the box. Gurley, IMO, is a terrific post-hype sleeper. The fact you can get him in round 3 (I had drafts where he was going round 3 his rookie season) is robbery. 

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4 minutes ago, SoS said:

Definitely agree with you that Pryor is getting greatly overrated. Incredibly talented, yes, but he's entering the first year under this offense as arguably 3rd on the target totem pole when everyone is healthy (Kirk loves him some Reed and Crowder). I also don't see Kirk throwing 600+ times again this year. With that said, Pryor is undoubtedly going to have some monster weeks. 

You make good points about McVay. However, what he is excellent at is spacing, and it's what the previous regime was so terrible at. It's that spacing that should allow Gurley slightly more breathing room than he's had the past 2 seasons, and even slightly more space for a back of Gurley's caliber can be a huge difference. McVay will design concepts that get Gurley in space, both in the run and pass game, and the acquisition of Watkins will greatly limit defenses propensity for loading the box. Gurley, IMO, is a terrific post-hype sleeper. The fact you can get him in round 3 (I had drafts where he was going round 3 his rookie season) is robbery. 

Would you take Gurley or DeMarco in round 2?...I feel more confident about Murray, especially if I can get Henry in the 9th-10th. 

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Just now, holt_bruce81 said:

Would you take Gurley or DeMarco in round 2?

No questions asked. My personal PPR rankings go: (these are very fluid up until draft day, mind you) 

1. David Johnson

2. LeVeon Bell 

3. LeSean McCoy 

4. Melvin Gordon

5. Zeke Elliott

6. Devonta Freeman

7. Demarco Murray  

8. Jay Ajayi

9. Todd Gurley 

10. Lamar Miller 

 

If I went A.Brown or J.Jones in the middle of the 1st, I'd love to land Gurley in the back half of the 2nd. The reason why Demarco's durability doesn't scare me off is because I can acquire Henry in the middle rounds, and he's one of the safest handcuffs in fantasy (by safe I mean, you know 100% he's going to be the bellcow if Murray goes down, whereas that might be in question for a guy like Darren McFadden). 

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Thoughts on these guys because I'm having a hard time buying their ADP in standard leagues 

Hilton

Demaryius

Alshon

Zeke at Top-15 unless it gets reduced. 6 is half the season

Baldwin

 

Guys who i think are underrated:

Davante Adams

Spencer Ware

Allen Robinson

Michael Crabtree

Kelvin Benjamin

Joe Mixon

Frank Gore

Robert Kelley

Doug Martin

 

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36 minutes ago, steadypimpin said:

Do you guys think drafting Hunt/Ware is a good idea? 

They're going to play on a ball-control offense that loves to dump it off to RBs and should be playing ahead in a lot of games with that defensive unit. If you're implementing zero-RB or are simply looking for value, I think the combination of Ware/Hunt is going to give you a RB2 more weeks than not. 

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I'm in a 12 man keeper league so 24 players are being kept. We do have a 3 year restriction on them so it helps with recycling good players back into the first round. This year there are 8 clear top players (if you include Zeke) and then there is a drop off into Cooper, Murray area of ADP for the bottom of the first round. I traded a first last year for Zeke for the stretch run and won it all. So this year I have the #14 pick and that guys 2nd round pick #22. I am keeping David Johnson and Terrelle Pryor both as 9th round picks. I was thinking of offering #14 and #22 for the #3 and #83 (8th round) pick. I'd still have a 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, and two 8ths to fill out my starting roster but this move would take me from the Leonard Fournette's of the world to the ODB or Antonio Browns of the world to pair with my two studs. You think it is a good idea or am I being dumb? 

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On 8/15/2017 at 3:22 PM, MdTitansFan56 said:

Keeper league I have 7th pick and all but decided I will be taking Rodgers (the crazy scoring league I've spoke of). My keepers as of now are Riddick, McCoy, A. Jeffrey, and Moncrief. With Luck being injured and the possibility of landing TY in the 2nd I'm debating throwing back Moncrief in favor of Tyler Eifert, Mike Gillislee, Brandon Marshall. I will be taking a WR in the 2nd either way who would you protect? Marshall,  Moncrief, Eifert,  Gillislee, or Ingram? 

Gillislee scares me because he is injured and he's on NE, Moncrief injury history plus Luck injury (feel there are a couple guys that are much of the same) and Eifert injury history as well. 

 

I'm leaning keeping Ingram, his usage will be down a bit but will be my 2/3 back behind McCoy. I can land a Tyreek Hill, Emmanuel Sanders or another player that I have higher than Moncrief in the 3rd. Best case scenario for HB in the 3rd is TY Montgomery. I feel like the upgrade at WR is slightly better than it would be at HB. 

Think I'll pass on Moncrief.  I'm thinking more and more about Gillislee.  His huge TD upside makes him a good RB2 candidate in my mind.  I wouldn't fault you for taking Ingram, though I could see him being easily displaced.  I think those options are all roughly in the same tier, so I don't have a strong preference.

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