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Draft Discussion 3.0


NudeTayne

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Also, watch Sam Darnold. He regularly flashes through progressions and reads, looks the safety off etc and throws the other side of him with anticipation. People think he doesn't do this because he's an 'instinctual gamer' but he does. He's more mature and developed in that sense than one might expect.

Rosen does all of these things too, of that there is no doubt. But I've also noticed he locks onto his first read quite a lot. Maybe that's partly because he is so accurate that he knows he can anticipate and fit it in there anyway, but he does do that a lot.

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8 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Except he didn't win any games and has major concussion issues, and there are some questions about his coachability/attitude, and the comments a few months ago about being put in the right situation, even if it was lower in the draft.

I don't think I heard those comments. I'm interested to see his combine interviews and interviews leading up to the draft.

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5 minutes ago, shoffma1999 said:

I don't think I heard those comments. I'm interested to see his combine interviews and interviews leading up to the draft.

He retracted his comments about "not wanting to get drafted by the Browns", but this is what he said when the Browns cemented the 1st pick:

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/12/24/16815914/nfl-draft-2018-josh-rosen-browns-trade-giants-eli-manning-scenario

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33 minutes ago, Aztec Hammer said:

Rosen - 26 INT in 30 games.

Darnold - 22 INT in 24 games.

Fumble numbers make Darnold's turnover rate worse.

I agree that Rosen is a prototype pocket passer with a classic throwing motion, accuracy and good football IQ. He's not perfect though. His pocket presence is overrated in my opinion. He has a blind spot to sensing backside pressure at times. He can't really move or extend a play when the pocket collapses, which it will, for the Cleveland Browns. He's not Tom Brady. He's much more Eli Manning. He makes some very bad decisions too, regardless of the fact he throws a pretty ball. I've seen him picked off throwinng across his body against Memphis. Pick six in the endzone against USC. Airmailing a deep ball against Colorado for the easy pick by the deep safety. I've seen him throw a pick whilst being spincycled in a sack, just shovelling the ball to the nearest D-lineman.

Character concerns are another reason, but everyone is aware of that.

Sam Darnold... he's more proficient in the pocket than people think. Though he can be tricked by coverages at this point and a lot of his picks were in the middle of the field. He needs to get better there. He has elite first step blitz avoidance and overall fantastic rush evasion skill. Can make any throw, it's not like his arm isn't good enough. Sideline throws vs Ohio State, numerous sideline bucket throws to JuJu in 2016, check the Penn State bowl game 4th quarter whilst taking a shot. Can thread the needle from the pocket (Rose Bowl winner, vs Arizona State this year). We all know what he can do outside of the pocket. Great ability to escape the pocket, keep his eyes downfield and make the throw. Adds a run element on third and fourth downs, where he can use his legs to pick up the first. Well suited to the RPO era we are starting to find ourselves in; like a PG he gets the ball down quick, scans the field and rips a mean slant. Built to take hits and has no college injury history. Cool, composed demeanour and no character concerns.

I did a study a month or more back and it showed Josh Rosen's turn overs are far far worse than just the raw numbers. Sure Darnold might have a little higher rate but Josh Rosen's turn overs were happening at the worst of times. He was turning it over while leading by less than 7 points, while down by less than 7 points, in the red zone and late in games. He had the 2nd highest turnover to TD ratio in 5 years worth of QB prospects. Do you want to know the only prospect who was worse? DeShone Kizer and it was a long way back to #3 worst. Rosen and Kizer were head and shoulders worse than everyone else.

Honestly after watching and studying up on him Josh Rosen was the very first of the Big 5 that I eliminated from consideration for #1 overall.

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1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

He retracted his comments about "not wanting to get drafted by the Browns", but this is what he said when the Browns cemented the 1st pick:

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/12/24/16815914/nfl-draft-2018-josh-rosen-browns-trade-giants-eli-manning-scenario

He’s a bright kid by all accounts.

I can’t say I expect a bright kid who plays QB to want to play here.  Maybe we need to charm him a bit?

Perhaps if we weren’t the definition of incompetence we wouldn’t have to worry about kids like him thinking such things...

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Just now, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

He’s a bright kid by all accounts.

I can’t say I expect a bright kid who plays QB to want to play here.  Maybe we need to charm him a bit?

Perhaps if we weren’t the definition of incompetence we wouldn’t have to worry about kids like him thinking such things...

No fault there. I don't blame him one bit...but that doesn't mean I'm going to draft someone who doesn't want to be here when at worst I like a kid at the same position just as much (in my case, moreso).

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3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

No fault there. I don't blame him one bit...but that doesn't mean I'm going to draft someone who doesn't want to be here when at worst I like a kid at the same position just as much (in my case, moreso).

I wouldn’t either, but I’d rather have that discussion face to face than worry too much about comments through the media.

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1 hour ago, TheeRealDeal said:

I did a study a month or more back and it showed Josh Rosen's turn overs are far far worse than just the raw numbers. Sure Darnold might have a little higher rate but Josh Rosen's turn overs were happening at the worst of times. He was turning it over while leading by less than 7 points, while down by less than 7 points, in the red zone and late in games. He had the 2nd highest turnover to TD ratio in 5 years worth of QB prospects. Do you want to know the only prospect who was worse? DeShone Kizer and it was a long way back to #3 worst. Rosen and Kizer were head and shoulders worse than everyone else.

Honestly after watching and studying up on him Josh Rosen was the very first of the Big 5 that I eliminated from consideration for #1 overall.

Was the other way around when I looked at it. So, most of Darnold's INTs come when they are winning. Most of Rosen's INTs come when they're losing. Rosen throws picks because his supporting cast was awful (both bad OL, Rosen worse WR/RB) and when they got down he knew he was their only chance and tried to force things that weren't there. Darnold's were more of a mixed bag (misreads, forcing, careless, etc.). I don't know if you can put one's INTs/TOs as being "worse" than the others based on situation.

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1 hour ago, freakygeniuskid said:

Was the other way around when I looked at it. So, most of Darnold's INTs come when they are winning. Most of Rosen's INTs come when they're losing. Rosen throws picks because his supporting cast was awful (both bad OL, Rosen worse WR/RB) and when they got down he knew he was their only chance and tried to force things that weren't there. Darnold's were more of a mixed bag (misreads, forcing, careless, etc.). I don't know if you can put one's INTs/TOs as being "worse" than the others based on situation.

Red Zone TD-INT
Sam Darnold        38-2 on 100    38%    2%    36
Josh Rosen        32-7 on 146    21.9%    4.7%    17.2

Losing by 1-7 Points
Sam Darnold        74/110    67.2%    5-2
Josh Rosen        179/297    60.2%    11-10

Tied or Winning by less than 7
Sam Darnold        257/391    65.7%    29-12
Josh Rosen        251/405 61.9%    20-7

3rd and Manageble(1-6)
Sam Darnold        59/93    63.4%     6-1    48 1st Downs    51.6% 1st Down Rate
Josh Rosen        70/134    52.2%    8-4    62 1st Downs    46.2% 1st Down Rate

4th Quarter & Overtime
Sam Darnold        110/171    64.3%    1496    9-3
Josh Rosen        163/274    59.4%    2182    18-8

 

Literally the only situation Josh Rosen is even remotely on par with Sam Darnold is when his team is winning by less than 7. 

Don't try to act like Sam Darnold wasn't forcing things trying to over compensate for his team. Also the narrative Josh Rosen is forcing things because of a bad team is a joke. One of the many things I noticed about him compared to a lot of college QBs was his hesitation in taking risk. Of all the top QBs in this draft he is by far the most timid of them.

I don't remember if you are the guy who brought up the Texas A&M comeback but just leave that one go. It was the ultimate outlier. He literally has 2 career come from behind wins and they other one was as a Freshman after he put his team down with 3 first half turnovers and the coaching staff then took the ball out of his hands and rode Paul Perkins is a ground and pound come from behind win over BYU.

I'm not going to argue or even debate Josh Rosen any further so we will just have to agree to disagree.

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Now, to preface this, I am NOT necessarily advocating this, but rather tossing it out there for discussion.  

If we were to go with Barkley at 1

Giants take Rosen (or Darnold) at 2

Do we offer up our 2nd rounder from Houston to the Colts to move up one spot to get "our guy" of the remaining QB's?

This draft could benefit the Colts very well, as the Jets/Broncos could try and jump us to get to 3, or battle it out for 4.

 

Apologies if this discussion was mentioned elsewhere.  

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Running back. At one? In 2018?

There hasn’t been a running back taken at 1in 23 years.

Two in the last 35 years.

Both would be considered busts.

For a team where this...

browns-qbs.jpg?w=640

 

is missing a half dozen names or so yet.

For the love of all things holy, stop the stupidity.

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6 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Running back. At one? In 2018?

There hasn’t been a running back taken at 1in 23 years.

Two in the last 35 years.

Both would be considered busts.

For a team where this...

browns-qbs.jpg?w=640

 

is missing a half dozen names or so yet.

For the love of all things holy, stop the stupidity.

Now, to preface this, I am NOT necessarily advocating this, but rather tossing it out there for discussion.    <-- :) 

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9 minutes ago, Bucketheadsdad said:

Now, to preface this, I am NOT necessarily advocating this, but rather tossing it out there for discussion.    <-- :) 

Yes...unlike letsgotradedown....I actually want to take Barkley....but at 4.  We have to get the QB at 1, unless they end up getting Cousins.  I don't believe Barkley will be there at 4, but if he is?????   Take him

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20 minutes ago, Bucketheadsdad said:

Now, to preface this, I am NOT necessarily advocating this, but rather tossing it out there for discussion.    <-- :) 

There shouldn’t be any discussion about it.

***IF*** we had a qb, maybe I could understand a running back, but there hasn’t been a team with a top 5 pick that they spent on a running back win a Super Bowl since the Ravens in 2001.  Before that? Idk...the Bears??

Hell the last few have picked up dudes off the FA pile.

QB at one, nothing else.

Peterson, Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Cadillac, Ronny Brown, McFadden, Cedric Benson, Reggie Bush, Zeke, Gurley, TRich, and Fournette.

Thats all the top 5 backs since 2000, iirc, plus arguably the best of the bunch in Peterson and there is all of one ring among them and that was Reggie Bush.

But nah, we need one, no need to let facts get in the way of nonsense though.

btw @Bucketheadsdad, my frustration isn’t directed at you ;)

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