Broncos Sign QB Case Keenum

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Yeah, I knew about Kelly's injury issues, but as I don't live in the Denver area, I thought there may have been some quotes or media coverage on him that I missed. Frankly, if Kelly seems to have got his mental state in order, and is showing me any of the great potential he did in college, if I'm Elway, I'm seriously leaning against drafting a QB in the first round of the draft. And that includes trading back up in to get Rudolph or Jackson. 

Problem is, he literally can't show anything that's meaningful until OTA's.   Honestly, if we draft QB early, AND Kelly looks great - wonderful.   That's a great problem to have.   JimmyG will have teams lining up to get the guy we don't want if both show well this year in next year's offseason.   I'd love to just have that problem, TBH. 

Bottom line - we have Keenum.  We have no idea who is available at 1.5 and so we have to be ready to go in a lot of different directions.  And yes, we have Kelly.  But he's literally just a lottery ticket.   A free one, but a lottery ticket nonetheless.  You don't build an investment portfolio around it.  If it hits, great, portfolio is suddenly flush.  But plan like it won't hit, the portfolio thrives either way. 

Edited March 17, 2018 by Broncofan

[DiehardBronxFan]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

BTW, the Keenum contract has been reported as locking him into a 2nd year with us no matter what.   But after @paul-mac mentioned his belief that Von's cap hit would require us to think about going cheap at QB to balance our roster, I took a closer look at the deal's details released today:

The key part - the signing bonus is only 6M for 2018-19.  That means, next year, the 10M will be 3M bonus, and 7M guaranteed salary of the 18M 2019 base salary.  Elway frontloaded the deal with a roster bonus of  4M along with the 6M signing bonus (and the 2018 guaranteed salary of 8M).     So why the roster bonus?  Well, instead of splitting the 10M of immediate $ we'd normally pay Keenum as a signing bonus for 2018-19, Elway allowed us to pay 7M this year of the signing bonus and 3M next year - by calling 4M a roster bonus.  Anytime you see a roster bonus, it's the way GM's can frontload bonus $ for specific years (they can even frontload a later year with another roster bonus) - which is what players love, since they get that right away, not over the year, they don't care what it's called - it only matters to our cap.  Anyways, back to why this matters - out of next year's 10M of dead cap money - we only eat 3M if we trade Keenum.   We would eat 10M with a release, and that's a no-go.  But trade?  Totally different story.  

Now, before you go all nuts with "trade him?  Why would we trade him?".  I'm not suggesting we trade him out of hand.  And I certainly don't if we don't have a rookie QB drafted (and I'm less committed if we move back for a QB, or take one after Day 2, those will take longer to develop, Keenum would likely stay for both 2018-19 in that scenario).   But, now, looking at the deal in full detail - if we pick a QB 1.5, no doubt the plan would be using Keenum to go back to a stopgap role for 2018 (and I agree there's no way you have a rookie QB and then Lynch/Kelly as the only backup).  Then, he'd get traded in the offseason (or at this trade deadline, if someone needed a QB and our guy was ready, esp. if the season goes as expected, and we're not a legit contender).   In that scenario, with any trade - we only eat $3M next year in dead money, not 10M.    Now, to be clear - this only makes sense if we go QB 1.5.   And I'm not sure we should, as for me it depends at who is there (Rosen/Darnold for me).  If they are not there, then it's Keenum for 2 years (I guess unless we traded back and got another rookie later lol).  For other guys, though, Mayfield belongs there, and for others, add Mayfield plus Allen (basically saying QB or bust).   

Anyways, all of the above is moot if we don't go QB 1.5.   But while I'm ready to point out where Elway's struggled, one area he excels in - contracts & FA signings.   The way he structured this deal actually gives us a clear Year 2 out - with a trade.   And keep in mind, while this year had a ton of stopgap QB's available - that's incredible rare.   Every year besides 2018, the demand outstripped supply.   Now, don't expect that we'd get much pick-wise for Keenum if we dealt him.  But if he serviceable as we hope, but not the long-term answer as we fear (or if we've hitched our wagon to a rookie QBOTF for mid-2018/2019+), then just the salary savings alone will make it a nobrainer for us to do.  If Siemian can get a 5th, then no doubt even a more expensive Keenum (who's in the midtier) should be tradeable.

Again, I have no idea of how it will go down - but Elway's use of the roster bonus to front-load our dead money, actually changes our ability to part ways with Keenum year 2 - it can't be a release, it has to be a trade, but the contract gives him that very clear out.   It's actually quite ingenious.   I have issues with his Day 2 drafts, and I'm not crazy about his FA targets so far this year, but I gotta recognize he's a master at contract manipulation in FA.   Another example here.

 

Really appreciate that analysis. Thanks. 

[jolly red giant]

7 hours ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

Really appreciate that analysis. Thanks. 

I agree - it does shed an important light on the situation.

Here is my current take on things -

Elway signed Keenum because he will not take a chances on a rookie being a bust and wasting a season. Keenum will be the starter no matter what Elway does in the draft.

I suspect that Elway has already decided who is preferred QB draft pick is (maybe he has two).

Elway recognises that there are a lot of holes in the roster and he cannot afford to trade up.

Elway will select his QB at 1.5 if he drops to that pick. If not Elway will either use the pick on someone else or try and trade down.

If he does pick a QB then he will make him sit for a season (especially if it is Mayfield or Allen)

If the rookie turns out to be the latest in a growing line of QB busts - then he still has Keenum under contract for year 2

If Keenum turns out to prove that last year wasn't a one hit wonder then Elway has him under contract and has lots of options.

Last point - I think one of the reasons for restructuring Von's contract could be so that he can cut Lynch (if he drafts a rookie and Kelly shows some promise) - Lynch has dead cap of $4.5million this year.

[DiehardBronxFan]

2 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

I agree - it does shed an important light on the situation.

Here is my current take on things -

Elway signed Keenum because he will not take a chances on a rookie being a bust and wasting a season. Keenum will be the starter no matter what Elway does in the draft.

I suspect that Elway has already decided who is preferred QB draft pick is (maybe he has two).

Elway recognises that there are a lot of holes in the roster and he cannot afford to trade up.

Elway will select his QB at 1.5 if he drops to that pick. If not Elway will either use the pick on someone else or try and trade down.

If he does pick a QB then he will make him sit for a season (especially if it is Mayfield or Allen)

If the rookie turns out to be the latest in a growing line of QB busts - then he still has Keenum under contract for year 2

If Keenum turns out to prove that last year wasn't a one hit wonder then Elway has him under contract and has lots of options.

Last point - I think one of the reasons for restructuring Von's contract could be so that he can cut Lynch (if he drafts a rookie and Kelly shows some promise) - Lynch has dead cap of $4.5million this year.

Interesting take on using the Von restructure $ on cutting Lynch IF he gets a rookie QB.  The nice thing about that is, if you take the hit this year, then next year, when you’re paying for it with Von, you trade Keenum per BroncoFan’s note, and it sorta balances out.  And the if you DONT cut Lynch, you don’t take the hit, and the cap space rolls into next year, and helps to balance things out.  Hmmmmm.

Makes me really think you’re right on on your take above -  he has given himself options either way on QB, both in terms of the player AND the cap flexibility.  

Now if he could solve that gaping hole at RT.....

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

I agree - it does shed an important light on the situation.

Here is my current take on things -

Elway signed Keenum because he will not take a chances on a rookie being a bust and wasting a season. Keenum will be the starter no matter what Elway does in the draft.

I suspect that Elway has already decided who is preferred QB draft pick is (maybe he has two).

Elway recognises that there are a lot of holes in the roster and he cannot afford to trade up.

Elway will select his QB at 1.5 if he drops to that pick. If not Elway will either use the pick on someone else or try and trade down.

If he does pick a QB then he will make him sit for a season (especially if it is Mayfield or Allen)

If the rookie turns out to be the latest in a growing line of QB busts - then he still has Keenum under contract for year 2

If Keenum turns out to prove that last year wasn't a one hit wonder then Elway has him under contract and has lots of options.

Last point - I think one of the reasons for restructuring Von's contract could be so that he can cut Lynch (if he drafts a rookie and Kelly shows some promise) - Lynch has dead cap of $4.5million this year.

Yeah that observation played out.  By book value alone 1.5 and 2.7 was enough to get 1.3.  But with the market value being so seller friendly we’d have to fork over a 2019 2nd.  

IND gave that plus an extra 2018 2nd from the Sheldon Richardson deal.  Doh.  Good for IND their GM Ballard really has them headed their right way.  Other than the McDaniels hire lol.  They are likely better off without him. 

 

[AnAngryAmerican]

14 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

The Keenum signing and the whole Broncos QB situation is one of the most intriguing things going on in the league right now. Tuned in here, read the bulk of all this, and wasn't disappointed. Some thoughts and questions:

-A lot of folks here seem pretty down on Keenum, and I'm not sure why. Jeff Fisher brings all offensive players down. Keenum didn't really fail every year up until last year, as he was never really brought into any situation with the notion that he'd be "the man". The criticism sort of sounds like (to me, anyway) those people that ripped on Kurt Warner after his breakout year. Keenum has a decent arm, is fairly sound, technically, and is still young enough to give you some good years. Also, the Broncos roster doesn't seem to be quite as devoid of talent as many folks here are claiming. I'm all in favor of the Broncos getting a guy to groom, preferably high, but honestly, to an (admitted) outsider, your overall situation appears to be the best it's been in a while.

-A few posters here seem to be only sold on Rosen and Darnold. I'd be interested in knowing why that is. I totally get that wasting high draft picks is something you never want to do, but what is it about Mayfield or Allen that turns you guys off from taking that plunge? I find Mayfield to be particularly intriguing, and when you look at the stats, and growth, that used to be the big indicators for college guys becoming good pros, Mayfield has Darnold and Rosen beat, hands down.

-Very few seem to think the Broncos should trade up to acquire their QB of the future. Why is that? Don't you guys have a ton of picks? I'm almost positive all the maneuvering the Bills have been up to was done with the Colts in mind, but it now seems like the Giants may be (stupidly) open to a trade, as well. I know Barkley and Chubb really complicate things at the top of the draft for any team trying to jockey and make trades, but wow...#5 is still a good bargaining chip to have at your disposal.

-How good has Kelly looked? Don't honestly know. If he could pan out, that changes everything.  

Case is a game-manager, he's not a franchise QB. I know some people around here want to believe he is but the fact of the matter is his ceiling is a good game-manager. He's is undersized, has a weak arm (not a decent arm) and if you watch his games from last season he threw up a lot of chuck-and-pray kind of passes, 50/50 balls, that his receivers won more often than not, improving his rating and numbers. As I said when he was signed, Elway's plan seems to be to follow the Minnesota/Jacksonville model where we try to win with a game-manager at QB and a supremely talented roster around him. Now, Case is a great guy and I'm sure he's going to work his tail off, be a locker room leader, a positive force in the community and all that, but I don't see a true franchise QB in the mold of someone like Aaron Rodgers. Truthfully, I think Case is the kind of QB who is good enough to keep the team competitive, scratch out a 10-6ish kind of record and a Wild Card berth but not good enough to win a Super Bowl. Hopefully, I'm wrong. 

Darnold and Rosen are the two safe bets of this year's QB class, that's why some of us are sold more on them than the others. Mayfield, Allen, Jackson, et. al. represent a significant roll of the dice. Allen because of his accuracy and the fact the played at a lower-level of competition in college, Mayfield and Jackson because of their size and playground football offenses they come from at OU and Louisville. Mayfield also because of his abrasive personality, telling the Bears he won't interview with them because they have Mitch Trubisky, saying he doesn't want to sit for a year and etc., the guy just seems like a little b****, each day he reminds me more and more of Johnny Manziel. Allen is the safer of the roll-the-dice prospects because he has NFL size, strength, athleticism, but all the prospects not named Rosen or Darnold have a high, in some cases sky-high, bust potential. 

Furthermore, if we are going to follow the aforementioned Minnesota/Jacksonville model and surround our (expensive) game-manager with as talented a roster as possible, then we need to use that premium pick on a premium player who will help the team right away; whether that's Barkley, Nelson, Chubb, one of the others or a trade down (with Buffalo ideally), it has to be used on an instant-upgrade, not on a player who is going to sit for a couple of years and learn from a game-manager.

Kelly hasn't done anything. He's kept a very low profile. Anyone who says he's this or he's that, good or bad, is pulling things out of thin air. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

14 hours ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

Good article from USA Today: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/03/nfl-case-keenum-broncos-contract-trevor-siemian-john-elway

I agree. I wouldn't have made this signing. I would have rather re-signed Brock Osweiler for one year before making a run at Rosen or Mayfield.

Sheesh I could have written that article. That guy must read my posts here or hang out at my bar and eavesdrop on me, haha. 

Brock wants to be here, he's a positive and enthusiastic and a great guy in the locker room. We probably could have kept him for around $5m instead of throwing $28m away on Case. Then, whichever QB we take, and Mayfield is the only one of the big four that I wouldn't touch (not even with a 10-foot pole), like the columnist says, at least that rookie QB gets live reps and we know what we have when we make the inevitable coaching change after the season. 

 

[PFM18]

Haven't had the chance to react here yet. 

I'm not sold on this move. I don't feel Keenum is ideal for the position we're in. I feel drafting a rookie and signing somebody like McCarron would have been the best option so we could look to success in the long term. Now it just feels Elway is going all in with Keenum and not putting his faith into a future franchise QB with potential.

Elway might still pick a QB if he feels his guy is still available, I don't doubt that. But it doesn't feel as though Keenum was brought in as a bridge and I'm concerned he still thinks we're in a win now position when in reality we're a long way from that.

[Broncofan]

15 minutes ago, PFM18 said:

Haven't had the chance to react here yet. 

I'm not sold on this move. I don't feel Keenum is ideal for the position we're in. I feel drafting a rookie and signing somebody like McCarron would have been the best option so we could look to success in the long term. Now it just feels Elway is going all in with Keenum and not putting his faith into a future franchise QB with potential.

Elway might still pick a QB if he feels his guy is still available, I don't doubt that. But it doesn't feel as though Keenum was brought in as a bridge and I'm concerned he still thinks we're in a win now position when in reality we're a long way from that.

I think you can take that concern to the bank.   For better or worse it's pretty clear Elway's not ready to give up on 2018, even though realistically we have no shot to contend.  

Edited March 18, 2018 by Broncofan

[PFM18]

33 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I think you can take that concern to the bank.   For better or worse it's pretty clear Elway's not ready to give up on 2018, even though realistically we have no shot to contend.  

Especially being in the same division as a strong Chiefs team, a Chargers team on the cusp of being a top team, and a Gruden led Raiders in their last season at Oakland. 

 

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, PFM18 said:

Especially being in the same division as a strong Chiefs team, a Chargers team on the cusp of being a top team, and a Gruden led Raiders in their last season at Oakland. 

 

On paper, they're all better than us.  But make no mistake, the Chargers are the class of this division.   The Chiefs could get the WC, but their CB and pass rush depth (Houston's hit the decline phase, Ford & Jones are their 2 alphas, lose 1 and you can negate their rush) are key weaknesses on D...and that's assuming that their LB issues are fixed (Hitchens helps, but he's only 1 guy, the key there is whether or not Reggie Ragland can give them the other guy they need).   Raiders just need help all around on D.  And the kicker is that what LAC needs the most to be a truly complete team - C upgrade, run-stuffing 4-3 DT, and upgrade offball LB play - are much easier to address in the draft or value FA tier.  They could use a better RT, but their RT Barksdale is miles better than ours or Oakland's.  

And having said that... all 3 teams are clearly better than us right now, and our cap situation is better than only KC's long-term.  So yeah, it's tough to see why we're going all-in cap-wise and pay even moderate FA $ to upgrade 2018's chances.  But it's hard to think 2019+ in DEN.

[jolly red giant]

The great thing about the NFL is a team can go from bottom of the division to top of the division in a single season.

[Broncofan]

15 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

The great thing about the NFL is a team can go from bottom of the division to top of the division in a single season.

With a sudden surge in talent, absolutely.  JAX added Fournette, Campbell, AJ Bouye, Marcel Dareus and Barry Church and had young guys like Linder & Fowler becoming big assets - and got rookie contributions from rookies like Keenan Cole and Dede Westbrook.   The Chargers’ last 2 drafts and great value FA signings like Casey Hayward allowed them to do it in 2 years.  The Saints we know about.   So it can be done.   But it’s all about the draft getting talent and creating cap room to get impact FA guys (or in NO’s case keeping their high priced talent and getting out of perpetual cap hell).

That’s our problem, though.   We aren’t bringing in impact players because our cap situation limits us and we aren’t drafting well - which further limits our cap situation.  The draft is the root of the problem and the one Elway is getting diminishing returns on each year.   It’s why a 1-year surge is a pipe dream.    Sigh. 

Edited March 18, 2018 by Broncofan

[DiehardBronxFan]

But we’re going to have an INCREDIBLE draft this year.  And don’t tell me we’re not.  I will choose to be unrealistically optimistic right up until I see this class of Rookies sitting on the bench De-actived on game days?

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

With a sudden surge in talent, absolutely.  JAX added Fournette, Campbell, AJ Bouye, Marcel Dareus and Barry Church and had young guys like Linder & Fowler becoming big assets - and got rookie contributions from rookies like Keenan Cole and Dede Westbrook.   The Chargers’ last 2 drafts and great value FA signings like Casey Hayward allowed them to do it in 2 years.  The Saints we know about.   So it can be done.   But it’s all about the draft getting talent and creating cap room to get impact FA guys (or in NO’s case keeping their high priced talent and getting out of perpetual cap hell).

That’s our problem, though.   We aren’t bringing in impact players because our cap situation limits us and we aren’t drafting well - which further limits our cap situation.  The draft is the root of the problem and the one Elway is getting diminishing returns on each year.   It’s why a 1-year surge is a pipe dream.    Sigh. 

These teams were having top picks for years 4 or 5. For us this is our first year since 2011. I will say loving this off season.  It's a great mix of veterans and draft picks I just want the rt from miami.