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Baker Mayfield No. 1


Kiwibrown

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@Keylargobrownie Someone suggested that Darnold was more pro ready because he played "more under center". My point was that neither of them really played under center (hence the tweet @buno67 posted to help a brother out). So playing under center's importance was not what we were debating.  I'm not bashing your post just explaining because everyone thinks that we are saying it's important, which we are not. Really I don't have an opinion one way or the other, I was just relaying the facts. 

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Baker is going to ball out. Not sure why so many people hated the pick. I know everyone thought it was going to be Darnold so they forced themselves into liking him and disliking the other QB's, but it's possible that there are multiple good QB's in a class. People seem to forget that after they select "their guy."

If all of these QB's were 6'3, looking at the tape, Baker Mayfield is clearly the #1 QB. Because he was 6'1, it muddied the water for me and I ended up going with Darnold as my #1 BARELY. But I literally had Darnold 1 point ahead of Baker, who was only docked because of his size.

 

The taking snaps under center is less about being able to physically do it, because any moron can figure that out. It's more about being closer to those big OL if you're short. Shorter QB's need to be in the Gun more than tall ones to keep them away from the tall trees. That's my take on the under center stuff. So while Baker took more snaps from under center, it doesn't mean Darnold isn't going to be more effective doing this. But where your QB takes snaps nowadays is not really relevant if you're not a terrible OC.

 

Also, I'm noticing that the biggest problem with smaller QB's isn't that they can't see; it's that they typically have small hands and thus, can't rifle the football nearly as far. This is not even remotely a concern with Baker, who has, IMO, a stronger arm than Darnold. He can throw it just as far in the pocket and on the run PLUS has a significantly higher amount of "zip" on his throws. You can tell right away who doesn't watch film when they compare him to other 6'0 QB's with weak arms. I've seen Case Keenum and Colt McCoy comparisons used for Baker. I've seen people question his escapability and his athleticism vs. the rush. I've seen people question his accuracy under pressure. Every one of those "concerns" are laughably bad.

 

Here's my concern with Baker:

1. Height. It's not a big factor, but when measuring him against the other big 3 QB's in this draft, it became a tie-breaker.

2. Scheme. He had a lot of easy throws, but he eliminated my fears by being by far the most accurate tight window thrower in the class. He just had a lot of cheap easy completions too.

 

 

His concerns aren't really "big" to me. He's going to be just fine and you're all going to love him & feel stupid for doubting him initially.

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10 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Baker is going to ball out. Not sure why so many people hated the pick.

I won't speak for others, but I hated the pick because he's an unlikeable toolbag with at least one off field concern, who has a personality type I despise, who isn't that athletic at the NFL and used his college athleticism to succeed a lot, who is under 6'1, who comes from an Air Raid style offense with a limited playbook, and was my #3 rated QB behind Darnold and Rosen, both of which I think are better by a lot.

10 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

I know everyone thought it was going to be Darnold so they forced themselves into liking him and disliking the other QB's,

I liked Darnold going back to the 2016 season.

10 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

but it's possible that there are multiple good QB's in a class.

It's definitely possible and likely. Josh Rosen is really good. Hopefully Mayfield is as well.

10 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

People seem to forget that after they select "their guy."

When you have the #1 pick and settle for the 3rd best QB in the entire draft (in my opinion), then I'm going to be angry no matter how you cut it. Drafting Alex Smith, who is a really good QB, doesn't make up for passing on Aaron Rodgers.

10 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

If all of these QB's were 6'3, looking at the tape, Baker Mayfield is clearly the #1 QB. Because he was 6'1, it muddied the water for me and I ended up going with Darnold as my #1 BARELY. But I literally had Darnold 1 point ahead of Baker, who was only docked because of his size.

Funny, Highsmith even said that if you only looked at the film, Darnold was better, aside from height. Good thing personality won out. HEE HEE!!!!!!!!!!!!

10 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

The taking snaps under center is less about being able to physically do it, because any moron can figure that out. It's more about being closer to those big OL if you're short. Shorter QB's need to be in the Gun more than tall ones to keep them away from the tall trees. That's my take on the under center stuff. So while Baker took more snaps from under center, it doesn't mean Darnold isn't going to be more effective doing this. But where your QB takes snaps nowadays is not really relevant if you're not a terrible OC.

I don't care as much about the "under center" stuff. I care more about the college scheme that is designed for countless QBs to succeed there at the college level and doesn't really translate to the NFL at all whatsoever, aside from a lot of other issues. Can his smaller frame take a lot of hits? Georgia hurt him and it showed when he played a legitimate NFL caliber defense in the 2nd half. Frame matters, like it or not.

10 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Also, I'm noticing that the biggest problem with smaller QB's isn't that they can't see; it's that they typically have small hands and thus, can't rifle the football nearly as far.

Or that their frames don't hold up over time. Or that they relied on their athleticism at the college level, figure out quickly that NFL LB's and DE's are just as athletic and have 50-80 pounds on them, and get hurt, unless they are Russell Wilson caliber athletes, which Baker is not.

10 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

This is not even remotely a concern with Baker, who has, IMO, a stronger arm than Darnold. He can throw it just as far in the pocket and on the run PLUS has a significantly higher amount of "zip" on his throws. You can tell right away who doesn't watch film when they compare him to other 6'0 QB's with weak arms. I've seen Case Keenum and Colt McCoy comparisons used for Baker. I've seen people question his escapability and his athleticism vs. the rush. I've seen people question his accuracy under pressure. Every one of those "concerns" are laughably bad.

He's a shorter, stronger armed polar opposite personality Marcus Mariota

10 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Here's my concern with Baker:

1. Height. It's not a big factor, but when measuring him against the other big 3 QB's in this draft, it became a tie-breaker.

2. Scheme. He had a lot of easy throws, but he eliminated my fears by being by far the most accurate tight window thrower in the class. He just had a lot of cheap easy completions too.

I'd add attitude, but I know how much you love Baker's attitude, so we'll agree to disagree here.

10 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

His concerns aren't really "big" to me. He's going to be just fine and you're all going to love him & feel stupid for doubting him initially.

He may be "just fine", but I think that Darnold's floor is just as high and his ceiling is much higher. Throw in the part about him being 2 years younger with better physical measurables, and I'm taking him.

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2 hours ago, MWil23 said:

Drafting Alex Smith, who is a really good QB, doesn't make up for passing on Aaron Rodgers.

Smith was a better prospect. Just like Chad Pennington was a better prospect than Tom Brady, A lot better. The gap between the top 3 (or 4 I guess since Rosen went 4th) is a lot more narrow gap than those.

 

2 hours ago, MWil23 said:

Frame matters, like it or not.

Mayfield is thicker than Darnold, Shorter but he doesn't have a smaller frame. This isn't Manziel.

 

2 hours ago, MWil23 said:

Darnold's floor is just as high and his ceiling is much higher. Throw in the part about him being 2 years younger with better physical measurables

Taller, that's it. He isn't faster, quicker, doesn't have a stronger arm. They are pretty close in those attributes but Darnold doesn't best him in any. Maybe long speed but that is just a guess.

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12 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Smith was a better prospect.

Not for me he wasn't, not even close. I loved ARod coming out of Cal and really wanted us to draft him over Braylon Edwards.

12 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Just like Chad Pennington was a better prospect than Tom Brady, A lot better.

Ah yes, the lone QB taken in the first round in 2000. Plus, we'll never really know what Chad could have done healthy. Obviously he's not Tom Brady good, but his wrist injury was never the same after that hit he took in 2002, coming off of a fantastic first year as a starter (104.2 QB rating) with 22 TD and 6 INT in just 11 games, led his team to an 8-3 record as a starter, 9-7 overall, and a first round blowout over Peyton Manning and company. Throw in his major rotator cuff injury in 2004, and that was about it.

12 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

The gap between the top 3 (or 4 I guess since Rosen went 4th) is a lot more narrow gap than those.

In your opinion. Time will tell.

12 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Mayfield is thicker than Darnold, Shorter but he doesn't have a smaller frame. This isn't Manziel.

He's shorter and weighs less. That means he's not as big. A bigger hit on his frame will do more damage.

12 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Taller, that's it. He isn't faster

A 4.84 forty to a 4.85 forty. Congratulations Baker, you're 1/100 of a second faster than Darnold.

12 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

, quicker

Actually Darnold was 4/100 of a second better in the 3 Cone. I guess he is quicker after all. (6.96 to a 7.0)

12 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

, doesn't have a stronger arm.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2018-nfl-draft-rankings-accuracy-arm-strength-and-everything-to-know-about-qbs/

This list has Darnold ahead of Mayfield

12 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

They are pretty close in those attributes but Darnold doesn't best him in any.

Except the 3 cone, height, weight, and zero off the field concerns, let alone a leadership style and attitude that I prefer.

 

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Just now, MWil23 said:

Not for me he wasn't, not even close. I loved ARod coming out of Cal and really wanted us to draft him over Braylon Edwards.

Ah yes, the lone QB taken in the first round in 2000. Plus, we'll never really know what Chad could have done healthy. Obviously he's not Tom Brady good, but his wrist injury was never the same after that hit he took in 2002, coming off of a fantastic first year as a starter (104.2 QB rating) with 22 TD and 6 INT in just 11 games, led his team to an 8-3 record as a starter, 9-7 overall, and a first round blowout over Peyton Manning and company. Throw in his major rotator cuff injury in 2004, and that was about it.

In your opinion. Time will tell.

He's shorter and weighs less. That means he's not as big. A bigger hit on his frame will do more damage.

A 4.84 forty to a 4.85 forty. Congratulations Baker, you're 1/100 of a second faster than Darnold.

Actually Darnold was 4/100 of a second better in the 3 Cone. I guess he is quicker after all. (6.96 to a 7.0)

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2018-nfl-draft-rankings-accuracy-arm-strength-and-everything-to-know-about-qbs/

This list has Darnold ahead of Mayfield

Except the 3 cone, height, weight, and zero off the field concerns, let alone a leadership style and attitude that I prefer.

 

i dont really much care about the rest of the post and i know how you hate when people dont respond to everything so take this as your warning that i didnt read the tldr
but aaron rodgers's reputation was heavily hampered because of his OC in college (tedford) and he bucked the trend of tedford qbs succeeding in the NFL.  You brought up issues with Mayfields collegiate offense.  did the offense not bother you in the case of rodgers?

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1 minute ago, mistakey said:

i dont really much care about the rest of the post and i know how you hate when people dont respond to everything

LOL. You know me so well. :)

1 minute ago, mistakey said:

so take this as your warning that i didnt read the tldr

No problem.

1 minute ago, mistakey said:

but aaron rodgers's reputation was heavily hampered because of his OC in college (tedford) and he bucked the trend of tedford qbs succeeding in the NFL. 

He definitely did. Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller, and even Trent Dilfer to a degree was disappointing.

1 minute ago, mistakey said:

You brought up issues with Mayfields collegiate offense.  did the offense not bother you in the case of rodgers?

With Rodgers, I loved what he did against USC two consecutive years. In 2003, he led them to an OT victory, and in 2004, he came darn close to pulling an upset over them at a 29/34 and 1 TD and over 250 yards stat line without turning it over, and he started 23/23 in that game, which was crazy to me at the time. He was also at 74% completion rate at that point in the season. I thought that these games showed how crazy accurate he was in addition to his already well known arm strength and athletic ability.

Then again, I remember being really excited when the Browns drafted Adamchenobi Echemandu after his great 2003 season, so what do I know? :)

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Quote

When you have the #1 pick and settle for the 3rd best QB in the entire draft (in my opinion), then I'm going to be angry no matter how you cut it. Drafting Alex Smith, who is a really good QB, doesn't make up for passing on Aaron Rodgers.

Agreed, but this situation is the opposite of that.  Smith was the consensus number one, Rodgers wasn’t.  Using that year we would have been passing on Smith for ARod by your logic.

Quote

Funny, Highsmith even said that if you only looked at the film, Darnold was better, aside from height. Good thing personality won out. HEE HEE!!!!!!!!!!!!

You’re conveniently leaving out that Dorsey, Wolf, McCloughan and presumably DePodesta all favored Baker from the beginning.

 

Quote

He's shorter and weighs less. That means he's not as big. A bigger hit on his frame will do more damage.

Id argue the objective is to not get hit as often rather than be able to sustain repeated hits.  Brees is a good example of staying healthy because of his ability to get rid of the ball and limit hits.  This is what most good QB’s do, especially the ones who play into their late 30’s.

 

Quote

Bruh... this is some dude’s opinion.  You’re better than this.  We don’t have any factual evidence to compare the two, but Baker’s combine velocity is elite (60 mph).  Better than all but a handful of recent QB’s, most of whom were just “toolsy” but not good QB’s.  

If he fails, it won’t be because of his arm.  There’s tape of him throwing 65 yards in game and hitting 60mph on the gun, it’s a complete nonfactor. I’d also be willing to be Darnold wouldn’t have thrown 60mph as not many dudes do.  (Allen was 62 for reference).

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8 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Agreed, but this situation is the opposite of that.  Smith was the consensus number one, Rodgers wasn’t.  Using that year we would have been passing on Smith for ARod by your logic.

My logic implies just who I cared about/wanted based upon who I thought was best, which was ARod for all of the above reasons. Any time you have the #1 pick and don't get the best QB in the draft, that's automatically a failure, even if that QB turns out to be good, which is the point that I was trying to make. It doesn't necessarily imply a 1 to 1 correspondence.

8 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

You’re conveniently leaving out that Dorsey, Wolf, McCloughan and presumably DePodesta all favored Baker from the beginning.

I mean, I personally still believe that Dorsey and Wolf knew that they wanted Baker all along before they were even hired here. I don't believe for one second that they could separate their own preconceived conclusions after they were hired here.  Dorsey saw little Favre, got his Green Bay flashback, and the pick was made a LONG time ago.

8 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Id argue the objective is to not get hit as often rather than be able to sustain repeated hits.  Brees is a good example of staying healthy because of his ability to get rid of the ball and limit hits.  This is what most good QB’s do, especially the ones who play into their late 30’s.

That's fair. 

8 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Bruh... this is some dude’s opinion.  You’re better than this.  We don’t have any factual evidence to compare the two, but Baker’s combine velocity is elite (60 mph).  Better than all but a handful of recent QB’s, most of whom were just “toolsy” but not good QB’s.  

I was responding to an opinion with an opinion.

Also:

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8 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

If he fails, it won’t be because of his arm.  There’s tape of him throwing 65 yards in game and hitting 60mph on the gun, it’s a complete nonfactor.

I never said that Baker didn't have a good arm. I said that I have seen others say that Darnold's arm is just as strong (or stronger), so that's not automatically a "win" for Baker when they're compared as was stated by Thomas.

8 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I’d also be willing to be Darnold wouldn’t have thrown 60mph as not many dudes do.  (Allen was 62 for reference).

Perhaps. I'd also be willing to bet that at no point in their career Tom Brady or Joe Montana could have hit anywhere close to that mark. Arm strength is a VERY nice indicator, especially coupled with accuracy, which Mayfield looks to have. That said, I'll take all of the back shoulder fades, deep comebacks, and 10-12 yard out routes on a frozen rope that I saw from Darnold the last two years over a gimmicky Air Raid passing tree that schemes dudes open for days/decades like it did with Bradford, Jason White, and Josh Heupel. It's not Baker's fault that he's in that system, but it's not a notch in his belt as a positive either.

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