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Raiders, Bears Reach Agreement on Khalil Mack Trade


ramssuperbowl99

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1 hour ago, Malik said:

NFL fans are obsessed with draft picks in ways that no other sports fan is. Having to pay a proven great player bothers people more than maybe getting a cheap young player who you HOPE gets to be as good as the guy.

To look at it another way here, using PFR's AV as a general measure of value, only 19 players drafted from 2005-2014 in the first round have had an equal or higher career AV in their first four years than Mack.  This is out of 320 picks (32 x 10 years), meaning you'd statistically have about a 0.11% chance of two first round picks giving you a player of Mack's value.

 

mistake: 11%.  Still low

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2 minutes ago, drd23 said:

The SB winners lately have either had Tom Brady or a rookie at QB (and a broken down Peyton Manning).  Should every team that doesn't have one of them just give up and trade all their good players for picks too? :P

No they should trade for Foles and let the championships commence 

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Just now, Mazrimiv said:

But CHI isn't paying both of those numbers, they are only paying Mack.  What is the logic behind taking the value of the picks they gave up, and adding that value to Mack's salary?  Having both was never an option.  They could have one or the other, and they went with Mack.

They will need players at the other positions, and the 1st round draft picks they no longer have because they acquired Mack are cheaper alternatives than the free agent market. 

So they are paying Mack ~$24MM, but are devoting closer to ~$40MM in resources around his acquisition because 2 other spots on their roster just got more expensive.

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2 minutes ago, ACO said:

People said the same about the Eagles who basically shipped a lot of their draft picks away for Wentz and company. That worked out. Now I am not comparing them because the Eagles are legit on ridiculous levels but it was one time where they struggled a lot. You just have to gamble on it. We have seen defenses save and win seasons. If this FO can work some magic they can get a draft pick back. Too much happens throughout a season to worry about it now. 

Different scenario. An elite QB (which Wentz is shaping up to be) with a pretty good defense can easily elevate a team to a championship, a great defense carrying a bottom-tier QB to a championship is the exception, not the rule in today's NFL. Yeah, it happened in 2017 with the Broncos, but it took a historically great defense to carry a surprisingly average (and "average" may be a little generous) Peyton Manning to a championship, and while this IS a huge get for an already top 10 defense last year that since added more pieces, I don't know if it makes them THAT. It's debatable if they're even on par with the Vikes defensively.

However, IF Trubisky pans out, holy shyte. Good luck paying both, though.

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2 minutes ago, Ketchup said:

The big thing is Trubisky. Mack or not, if Trubisky doesn’t hit, that teams goes nowhere. That’s why I think it’s a silly move without having a proven QB in place. Obviously they think they have their guy so we’ll see. I was very leary of GB sending two first rounders and paying Mack all that money and we have a top 2 QB in the league. It’s a lot of money and a lot of pick compensation for a non QB. 

The Bears are banking on Trubisky working out. And why shouldn't they? The entire coaching staff's jobs depend on it. They don't care what happens if they're gone.

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4 minutes ago, drd23 said:

The SB winners lately have either had Tom Brady or a rookie at QB (and a broken down Peyton Manning).  Should every team that doesn't have one of them just give up and trade all their good players for picks too? :P

Really the problem here isn't playing an actual top class player at DE or whatever big, it's the teams that end up paying something similar for a middle of the pack QB.

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32 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Unless Trubisky turns into a Jared Goff - not as good as Rodgers, but good enough to elevate the team around him.

Again, consider me in that camp.

Goff was also the exception not the rule. Everyone now expects their bust QBs to light it up lol. There’s massive data to back

that up.

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2 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

I am both thrilled for Mack and scared by the compensation we will need to give up.  To the people saying "I thought he would have gone to a contender" I think you may be undervaluing the Bears.  They have seriously grown as a team and if Trubisky plays well, we are in great shape.

Meh, they were what, 5-11 last year?  Still the 3rd best team in the division even at best. They made a few splashy free agent signings and (now) a big trade acquisition for a great player.....more often than not the splashy offseasons don't work.

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Just now, game3525 said:

He will get an extension this off-season. Dallas isn't going to let him play out his rookie deal unless he is utterly terrible this season. 

Why would Dallas unnecessarily raise his cap hit before they have to?  Also, he’s going to want big money (which he hasn’t earned), the cowboys are going to want to wait two more years so they have more evidence of whether he’s worthy of that money.

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2 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

They will need players at the other positions, and the 1st round draft picks they no longer have because they acquired Mack are cheaper alternatives than the free agent market. 

So they are paying Mack ~$24MM, but are devoting closer to ~$40MM in resources around his acquisition because 2 other spots on their roster just got more expensive.

I guess I'll just say that I disagree with this thought process and move on.

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