2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

[ramssuperbowl99]

19 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

If Paul Goldschmidt was signed beyond this year, I'd probably be inclined to agree.  But he's a FA at the end of the year, and there's really no incentive to sign an extension at this point.  If we project the price of WAR at $10M/WAR, that's roughly $50M in value which gives us a surplus value of $35.5M.  Using that same WAR estimation for Greinke and an average WAR of 3 WAR/year, you're looking at roughly $90M in value giving you a surplus of -$13.2M.  Add those two together, and you're getting roughly $22.3M in surplus value between the two of them.  Looking back at Point of Pittsburgh, you're looking at a hitter in that 51-75 range or a pitcher in that 51-75 range plus more.  The problem is the Cardinals' farm system isn't overly strong at the top.  I suppose the offer would start with someone like Luke Weaver or Dakota Hudson and work from there.  Maybe even Carson Kelly perhaps?

You forgot to include the draft pick for Goldy ($10MM) and the negative value for Fowler, which conservatively adds $20MM more.

Now you're talking about $50-60MM, which is nominally Reyes + Gorman.

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

You forgot to include the draft pick for Goldy ($10MM) and the negative value for Fowler, which conservatively adds $20MM more.

Now you're talking about $50-60MM, which is nominally Reyes + Gorman.

Come again?  There's no way in hell the Diamondbacks could ask for Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver/Dakota Hudson, and Nolan Gorman.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Just now, CWood21 said:

Come again?  There's no way in hell the Diamondbacks could ask for Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver/Dakota Hudson, and Nolan Gorman.

I realize you consistently overvalue your prospects to the point of comedy, but yeah, Reyes + Gorman would be what the math says.

That's what happens when you take on of the worst contracts in baseball and trade it for a 3 WAR starter and one of the best hitters in baseball.

[CWood21]

Just now, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I realize you consistently overvalue your prospects to the point of comedy, but yeah, Reyes + Gorman would be what the math says.

That's what happens when you take on of the worst contracts in baseball and trade it for a 3 WAR starter and one of the best hitters in baseball.

Let's use PoP as our standard for Prospect value.  Between Goldschmidt, Greinke, Fowler, AND the draft pick, you're looking at roughly $66.7M in surplus value.

Carson Kelly (51-75 Hitter): $24.1M
Dakota Hudson (76-100 Pitcher): $15.1M
Luke Weaver (76-100 Pitcher): $15.1M

That's roughly $54.3M in surplus value.  Add in Nolan Gorman (76-100 hitter), and that pushes the surplus value to over $74.5M which means the Cardinals wouldn't have to give up Alex Reyes MATHEMATICALLY.  Now if you think that Dexter Fowler's -1.2 WAR last year was sustainable, that's a different discussion.  But if it were between you and me, I'd rather water down the package for Greinke/Goldschmidt and give up less in terms of prospects.

[ramssuperbowl99]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Let's use PoP as our standard for Prospect value.  Between Goldschmidt, Greinke, Fowler, AND the draft pick, you're looking at roughly $66.7M in surplus value.

Carson Kelly (51-75 Hitter): $24.1M
Dakota Hudson (76-100 Pitcher): $15.1M
Luke Weaver (76-100 Pitcher): $15.1M

That's roughly $54.3M in surplus value.  Add in Nolan Gorman (76-100 hitter), and that pushes the surplus value to over $74.5M which means the Cardinals wouldn't have to give up Alex Reyes MATHEMATICALLY.  Now if you think that Dexter Fowler's -1.2 WAR last year was sustainable, that's a different discussion.  But if it were between you and me, I'd rather water down the package for Greinke/Goldschmidt and give up less in terms of prospects.

Weaver's would be an overestimation since he only has 5 years of service time left. And you could probably argue that Kelly's value is lower than his old prospect ranking since he did absolutely nothing in the big leagues.

But saying they wouldn't have to mathematically give up Reyes is true if you're willing to deal from the big league roster, but even then that doesn't reflect reality. The D'Backs are giving up $50-60MM of surplus value, and teams almost always want a headline piece that encompasses as much of it as possible. And because they have Goldschmidt and you don't, they have the leverage. So the Cardinals aren't in a position to dictate how the prospect value is distributed, or they'll deal with somebody else who gives them a 55 OFP headliner.

 

I could say the Brewers could try to get JT Realmuto without Keston Hirua by doing the same handwavey math and then just assuming the front office I'm dealing with won't care about how that value is distributed, but that's not reality. The Marlins are going to want the best headliner they can get, and that's Hiura.

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Weaver's would be an overestimation since he only has 5 years of service time left. And you could probably argue that Kelly's value is lower than his old prospect ranking since he did absolutely nothing in the big leagues.

But saying they wouldn't have to mathematically give up Reyes is true if you're willing to deal from the big league roster, but even then that doesn't reflect reality. The D'Backs are giving up $50-60MM of surplus value, and teams almost always want a headline piece that encompasses as much of it as possible. And because they have Goldschmidt and you don't, they have the leverage. So the Cardinals aren't in a position to dictate how the prospect value is distributed, or they'll deal with somebody else who gives them a 55 OFP headliner.

 

I could say the Brewers could try to get JT Realmuto without Keston Hirua by doing the same handwavey math and then just assuming the front office I'm dealing with won't care about how that value is distributed, but that's not reality. The Marlins are going to want the best headliner they can get, and that's Hiura.

And you could easily make an argument that Weaver's value would be an underestimation since there's less variable with him.  We know he's at least going to be a 1.5 WAR SP.  Probably more than that.  As for Carson Kelly, nothing has changed with him.  He's got 131 PA to his name, and most of it is sporadic PT at best.  Put him an organization that will get him consistent PT, and those numbers don't look as bad.  Remember how bad Yadi was with the bat when he first came up?  And Carson Kelly turned 24 years old a few months ago, let's not act like we're talking about some late 20s prospect.

And I'm not arguing whether or not the Diamondbacks would/should ask for Reyes.  I find the odds of a team willing to swallow Greinke's contract pretty low.  Greinke's $34.M salary for next year would make up at least a third of 7 teams' payrolls last year.  Exclude the teams who are near the luxury tax or will be near the luxury tax once you include arbitration raises and the list of teams dwindles further.  Realistically speaking, how many teams do you think can handle Greinke's salary?

The Realmuto/Goldschmidt comparison doesn't hold any water for two reasons.  First, the Diamondbacks in this hypothetical would be tying Greinke's contract along with it.  Secondly, there's that nagging fact that Goldschmidt is a FA at the end of the year where Realmuto has 2 more years of FA.  Nobody is giving up a long-term asset like Alex Reyes (assuming you still view him as a top 25 prospect) for a potential rental.

[hrubes20]

Nats sign Kurt Suzuki for 2 years and $10 million.  Solid addition for that lineup.

[tom cody]

I agree, Suzuki also gets them a player from a division rival so good move all around. 

[KhanYouDigIt]

 

[Canadian Saint]

Something interesting to keep an eye on, Twins seem to be hiring from college ranks for coaching positions in both the minor and major leagues. Wes Johnson was hired from Arkansas to be our pitching coach, Billy Boyer from the University of Seattle to be our minor league infield and baserunning coordinator, Zach Bove from University of Central Florida in some sort of minor league pitching capacity. Last year, Pete Maki was hired from Duke to be our minor league pitching coordinator.

[devils1854]

1 hour ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

 

He's already retracted that info. DOB is a hack and has no clue what is going on in the front office. It wouldnt surprise me if they went hard after Harper, but this info is nothing. 

[ramssuperbowl99]

5 hours ago, hrubes20 said:

Nats sign Kurt Suzuki for 2 years and $10 million.  Solid addition for that lineup.

I think the noteworthy thing here is that one of the frontrunners for Realmuto is out. Would expect the Braves and Mets to follow suit shortly, because apparently the Marlins don't want to trade Realmuto in the division.

[naptownskinsfan]

1 hour ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I think the noteworthy thing here is that one of the frontrunners for Realmuto is out. Would expect the Braves and Mets to follow suit shortly, because apparently the Marlins don't want to trade Realmuto in the division.

They can't afford to trade Robles for Realmuto if they don't end up re-signing Harper.  Suzuki is a very good fit for them.  

[flyguy1609]

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Astros and Cardinals are the two teams "that have had the most meaningful discussions" with the Diamondbacks regarding a Paul Goldschmidt trade.

Rosenthal cautions that "no deal is close" and talks are "not yet advanced," but it looks like Houston and St. Louis could be the early favorites to land the six-time All-Star. Goldschmidt is slated to earn $14.5 million next season before entering free agency next winter. It's obviously going to take a big package to land him even though he's only under team control for one year. Goldy rebounded from a slow start to finish with a .290/.389/.533 and 33 home runs in 2018.

 

[CWood21]

Somewhere @ramssuperbowl99 is raging...