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2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread


Eagles27

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12 hours ago, N4L said:

Mad bum is going to be a quality pitcher until his early 40s imo. His release is just so easy on his shoulder and elbow and he's got the right body type and mindset to do it. His game isn't velocity, it's the 3/4 arm angle and the deception his release causes where all of his pitches look the same plus being able to hit his spots. None of that is going to change in the next 5 years. 

Zaidi said that 200 inning pitchers are hard to find and becoming more and more valuable as bullpens get used more frequently because a guy like that can provide much needed rest for the pen. Makes sense. 

Doesn't sound like he's made up his mind either way, which is very encouraging. It means he's going to gather information, test the market, then decide. I like that better than 'we are going to trade him because we've lost a lot of games and he's our only valuable asset' that just seems rather robotic. "Screw it, I don't really know what else to do" 

I bet guys like Jeff samardjiza and cueto are more tradable than we think, if the giants eat the majority of their salaries. 

I wouldn't go that far. His velo is down, his k rate was an all time low, his walk rate an all time high. His fip has been three quarters of a run higher than his era the last two years. He's probably benefiting a ton from the ball park, which would track with his splits. I think he probably has some solid seasons ahead of him, but right now the belief should be that he's trending downward based on what he has done the last two years. If you get a nice offer, I think you have to take it, especially given that he's only under contract one more year and I wouldn't want anything to do with signing him to an extension for another 5 at this point. 

Cueto certainly isn't tradeable, given he's out this entire season following TJS. Shark was a below replacement level starter last year in the most pitching friendly park there is. Even assuming that there is some sort of market for him, eating most of his salary sort of defeats the purpose. The guy had an era over 6 last year. At least with Matt Moore, he was on a very low salary, which really can't be said for Shark. He's battled some injuries, and in his mid 30's. I think we probably are just going to ride that one out for the last two years of that deal.  The limited NTC also makes it a little more complicated. I think with Shark, you're hoping for him to have a monster first half, sell him off at the deadline (at that point we've paid half of 2019 salary, can eat part of the salary for 2020) and maybe get something somewhat decent at that point. But I don't think that there's a market until he proves that he can still pitch competently.

Its not really robotic. It's the understanding that the team as it is currently constructed can't compete. The players flat out aren't good enough. If the team is going to go YOLO and way over the luxury tax? Okay, maybe something can be had there. But we are a bad team at the major league level with no farm system. That's a terrible combination. Beede looks to be a complete bust. Chris shaw wasn't super impressive last year in his call up and he's older already (25) and still blocked at the major league level. That's one of our top 5 prospects. You can be a bad team with a stocked farm system, or a good team with a weak one and it's fine...at least there's something in place. You can't be both, and right now, we are both, a bad team with a bad farm system. 

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23 hours ago, redsoxsuck05 said:

It’s fake. Gary already had Realmuto’s best season when he was like 4 years younger.

Uhhh...what?

Are you talking about the call up he had where he hit everything and just extrapolating to a full season? Or are you talking about the next year where he was basically Realmuto on offense this year with way worse defense and baserunning?

To be fair, the Yankees shouldn't trade for Realmuto anyway because he's expensive and Sanchez is good enough. But come on now.

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1 minute ago, hrubes20 said:

What the actual hell?

They took on a mountain of debt when they bought the team, ran their high payrolls, and went crazy in LA. 

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-debt-payroll-20161126-story.html

I think the goal was to not let the team be bad, knowing that meant a 10 year climb to financial stability, instead of tanking it out and being in good shape financially today.

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34 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

They took on a mountain of debt when they bought the team, ran their high payrolls, and went crazy in LA. 

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-debt-payroll-20161126-story.html

I think the goal was to not let the team be bad, knowing that meant a 10 year climb to financial stability, instead of tanking it out and being in good shape financially today.

I was completely unaware of this and it actually makes the article I posted seem legitimate, rather than standard offseason misdirection.  I can't say that I would be upset if the Dodgers bow out of the Harper sweepstakes.

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40 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Uhhh...what?

Are you talking about the call up he had where he hit everything and just extrapolating to a full season? Or are you talking about the next year where he was basically Realmuto on offense this year with way worse defense and baserunning?

To be fair, the Yankees shouldn't trade for Realmuto anyway because he's expensive and Sanchez is good enough. But come on now.

Sanchez in 2017 is right about on par with Realmuto’s best season. “Way worse defense” is an exaggeration because Gary is a better pitch framer and has a better arm.

I already know you are going to retort with passed balls, and my answer is that it’s not as impactful as sports talk radio makes it out to be.

Marlins have to add to Realmuto to get Sanchez, sry.

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16 minutes ago, redsoxsuck05 said:

Sanchez in 2017 is right about on par with Realmuto’s best season. “Way worse defense” is an exaggeration because Gary is a better pitch framer and has a better arm.

I already know you are going to retort with passed balls, and my answer is that it’s not as impactful as sports talk radio makes it out to be.

Marlins have to add to Realmuto to get Sanchez, sry.

Fine, "better defense" and just as much offensive production and better baserunning. You didn't say Sanchez is more valuable than Realmuto, you said he had a season equal to his best.

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24 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

I was completely unaware of this and it actually makes the article I posted seem legitimate, rather than standard offseason misdirection.  I can't say that I would be upset if the Dodgers bow out of the Harper sweepstakes.

I'm not going to say I buy it. But if they are looking to sell a minority stake in the team, that could imply there is a fairly serious cash flow issue and the MLB would have to be really sensitive to them taking on more debt given their previous losses.

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24 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I'm not going to say I buy it. But if they are looking to sell a minority stake in the team, that could imply there is a fairly serious cash flow issue and the MLB would have to be really sensitive to them taking on more debt given their previous losses.

I'll put on my tinfoil hat for a second and throw it out there that it may just be a way to cover potential owner collusion.  We've had reports already this offseason that the 3 biggest pocketed teams are not going to spend (LA, NYY, Cubs).  

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Just now, hrubes20 said:

I'll put on my tinfoil hat for a second and throw it out there that it may just be a way to cover potential owner collusion.  We've had reports already this offseason that the 3 biggest pocketed teams are not going to spend (LA, NYY, Cubs).  

I can completely get behind this take. This was supposed to be a free agent bonanza, but it looks like only 2 or 3 guys are going to really get paid.

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2 hours ago, hrubes20 said:

I'll put on my tinfoil hat for a second and throw it out there that it may just be a way to cover potential owner collusion.  We've had reports already this offseason that the 3 biggest pocketed teams are not going to spend (LA, NYY, Cubs).  

Maybe.  But are the teams really that in need of Bryce Harper?  Don't get me wrong, you make it happen.  But at the end of the day, do those teams need Bryce Harper?

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Maybe.  But are the teams really that in need of Bryce Harper?  Don't get me wrong, you make it happen.  But at the end of the day, do those teams need Bryce Harper?

Yeah, because he's Bryce Harper.

EDIT: I don't want to come off like I'm just dismissing you here, but if you're a big market team who has specifically ducked the luxury tax to get here and you don't go balls to the wall to sign a 26 year old who is arguably the most singularly talented hitter in baseball, you've gone up your own butt with market efficiencies. 

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