Quarterback Throw Distance Data

[RandyMossIsBoss]

Throwing distance data can be found fairly easily for free on ESPN via Elias Sports Bureau, however it is not accessible in a format that makes comparing easy or looking at multiple seasons worth of throw distance data. ESB splits the distances into 5 categories: Behind the Line Scrimmage, Short (1-10), Intermediate (11-20), 21-30, 31-40 and 41+. I've collected the data for all active, notable, quarterbacks in one document which should allow you to draw your own conclusions on throw distance data and its' value, if any. I still am not sure, but at the very least I've found these numbers to be very interesting and it's always fun when numbers match your preconceived notions (Flacco like to go deep, Alex Smith doesn't, etc.). I will say, I happen to think the real insight these stats offer is what kind of offense the player is in, at least when it comes to the distribution of their passes. A QB may throw twice as many bombs as an objectively stronger armed QB, so that goes to show you it has little to do with arm strength. Now the stats at each distance, those might be a bit more telling since you'd expect a weaker armed QB to struggle beyond 20 yards. Regardless, here is what I've collected.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5d9o34zyHM1M2lRckhnbk1OUlk/view?usp=sharing

Couple of notes:

-"Deep" in my document is any throw in the 21+ category. 

-The numbers do not always add up. I don't know why this is. By this I mean that the pass distribution for any category often doesn't equal 100%, it will always be close but rarely exact. Had I known this before collecting all the data, I would have set it up so that I only looked at the throws recorded in this distance metric, then we would have 100%. If you don't follow, I'll give you one of the more egregious examples. Bradford has thrown 98 TDs in his career, and that's what I have recorded under his "totals," but the throw distance data only amounts to 93 TDs. Where did those 5 TDs go? What kind of throws were they? I don't know, but when I calculate the distribution for his TDs, it is dividing each TD total at each distance by 98 rather than 93, which in hindsight would be more ideal. Oh well, thankfully it doesn't make much of a difference but keep it in mind.

I can promise that 99% of what I have recorded is accurate and what you will find on ESPN if you go season by season, but I can't guarantee you that Elias's throw distance tracking in the first place is accurate. I'm just a messenger here, really.

 

 

 

 

I cannot find a way to upload the excel document somewhere and retain it's format. I would like it so that you guys can play with the filters, since everything was entered into a table, but it seems to lose that ability when I put it on google docs. If you have any suggestions let me know. I could send the raw file if someone is particularly interested but through PM since I don't want to put that out there.

[titans0021]

From Mariota (Deep passing):

Year    Completions    Attempts    Yards    TDs    INTs    Passer Rating
2016    19    50    643    6    3    100.4
2015    8    40    266    3    3    48.5
Total    27    90    909    9    6    74.7

It's impressive just how absolutely dreadful his deep ball was his rookie year. I was looking for an easy way to compare how he was in '16 compared to '15, so this was real helpful. 

[Xmad]

Joe Flacco has a worse "deep" passing completion % than Alex Smith.

Everything I know is a lie. 

[Hunter2_1]

Brady had a QBR of 150pct when throwing 11-20 yards. Whoooo 

[SteelKing728]

the talk is Bradford is such a good deep ball passer, but he's barely above Bridgewater, and Sam's been in the league like 5 more years than Teddy.

[tom cody]

Many thanks for posting this, some interesting stats there.

[CriminalMind]

On ‎8‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 10:00 AM, SteelKing728 said:

the talk is Bradford is such a good deep ball passer, but he's barely above Bridgewater, and Sam's been in the league like 5 more years than Teddy.

The stats definitely don't show this, by looking at the tab stats

"deep" (+20 yards)

SB: 21TD vs 14INT 82.9 rating  32.9 % 11.7 Y/A .... 24.6 % of INT

TB:   7TD vs   8INT 52.7 rating  29.3 %   8.8 Y/A ..... 40.0 % of INT

SB over TB:  TD: INT 1.71 times betters, 30.2% better rating , 3.6% better completion %, 2.9 Y/A longer, 15.4% less of INT from deep passing

"bomb" (+40 yards)

SB: 6 TD vs 2INT 86.7 rating  26.9 %  13.9 Y/A ....

TB: 1 TD vs 1INT 37.8 rating    7.1%     4.0 Y/A ....

[mission27]

This is really good stuff.  What does it say about Matt Barkley, just out of curiousity? 

[Non-Issue]

Thanks for the data. It's really interesting. 

But you left one notable QB off the list. Jared Goff. Dude threw at least three passes of 21 yards or more last year. I don't think he completed any of them. But he threw them. So what gives?

[JAF-N72EX]

3 hours ago, Non-Issue said:

Thanks for the data. It's really interesting. 

But you left one notable QB off the list. Jared Goff. Dude threw at least three passes of 21 yards or more last year. I don't think he completed any of them. But he threw them. So what gives?

He is listed. He's credited for 4 completions, 16 attempts, 142 yards, 1TD. 

The biggest problem with those stats are that YAC are included, which are in no way a good indication of how good/bad a QB alone really was in those situations.

edit: A better way to statistically determine a QB's accuracy and success rate by depth is to go with; supporting cast grades, time in pocket, only air-yards, completion %, down-by-distance, situational quarters and OPP defense grades. 

[childofpudding]

Dude! Awesome work on this. Kudos.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Jay Cutler has thrown 10 INTS behind the line of scrimmage...?