Brees vs Manning

[C0LTSFAN4L1F3]

43 minutes ago, game3525 said:

He was great, but Peyton had one of his best seasons in 2006.  First in passer rating, second in passing yards, first in touchdown passes, first in ANY/A, and just a 1.6 INT rate. Again, Brees was great and was the catalyst for NO turn around, but he should have been on the all-pro second team, with Peyton being on the first team. 

That's fair. It's funny though because if you look at the 26 TDs, 11 INTs, you think it is a garbage season compared to what he does now. But it was comparatively better than almost all if not all of his seasons outside of this season which obviously he is #1. The league has changed so much that numbers that were impressive in 06' are garbage in today's game. 

[C0LTSFAN4L1F3]

Alright so up to this point, I had only really tried to disprove other points and I didn't have a chance to give a detailed breakdown with my opinion. 

Like I said, I wanted to give a good comparison, but I didn't think I had the time and here I am against my better judgement putting something together.  I realize most of you will just dismiss it for XYZ reason, or just call me biased or something and just disregard it altogether, but I urge those of you with the patience to read through it before responding. 

I've divided the comparison into three categories: Offensive Production, Statistics, and career accolades. 

Offensive Production:

A Quarterback's job is to lead the offense and produce as many points as possible on the unit that they are responsible for. QB is the most important position on the offense by far, they play a big role in the playcalls, can audible, are responsible for emotional leadership, and they get must be accurate enough to get the ball to their playmakers. In short, I believe that an aspect of evaluating a Quarterback is their offensive production. 

First, I want to dispel this idea that the best measurement of an offense is strictly points scored. I'll use two games as examples to illustrate this. So in 2013, in the Colts vs Broncos game, the Broncos scored 33 points and ended up losing the game. Later in the season in the playoffs, they played the Patriots and scored 26 points. So of course, the Colts game was a better offensive performance right? Scored 33 vs 26 points? People watching the Colts vs Broncos game noted how poorly the Broncos were playing, because they were.  In the Patriots game, the Broncos had scored on 6 of their first 7 drives before running out the clock on their 8th drive. In short, they had 2 TDs, 4 FGs, a punt, and ran the ball out in a final drive. In the Colts game, they had 4 TDs, 2 FGs, 8 punts, 2 fumbles and an interception. Clearly the Patriots performance was better and that is reflected in the 3.25 pts/drive>1.94 pts/drive. So when we measure the offenses, we will use the points per drive numbers. 

Another quick example, is that the Patriots in 07's offense didn't look as good in PPG as they actually were, because they didn't end up getting that many possessions. But when you see they scored a touchdown on 50 of their first 100 drives, and are the most effcient offense of all time, you realize they look much better than the PPG looks. (Obviously their PPG was still amazing, but it isn't obvious from the PPG that they are the GOAT offense)

Peyton's offenses:

(excluded rookie season; both sucked and nobody cares how bad you sucked in your first year)
99':2nd
00':4th
01':4th
02':15th
03':1st
04':1st
05':1st
06':1st
07':2nd
08':4th
09':4th
10':3rd
12':3rd
13':1st
14':4th

average ranking of 3.33, 5 1st place finishes, and 12 straight years of staying in the top 5

Brees' offenses:

03':14th
04':18th
05':4th
06':4th
07':11th
08':1st
09':2nd
10':7th
11':2nd
12':4th
13':3rd
14':5th
15':6th
16':2nd
17':2nd

average ranking of 5.67, 1 first place finish, 7 straight years of a top 5 finish
 

....And it isn't really close. Peyton blows Brees out of the water in this respect. Sure, you can see Brees does a great job of putting up points, but Peyton's offenses over his career are just better. 

Statistics:

Comparing career numbers in a vacuum is just lazy, and often unfair and accurate, especially when comparing these two players. A season by season comparison, or at the very least a comparison of the numbers when both players were playing under the same rules or in the same respective seasons so you can control for other factors. Prior to 2004, there were different passing rules, and 2011 featured an enormous offensive explosion that has continued culminating in the 2018 season where we see a downright ridiculous average passer rating of just under 95. It has become progressively easier to pass the ball in the current NFL between more PI calls, letting less PI calls go, targeting, defenseless receivers etc. So it is simply an unfair, inaccurate comparison of performance to compare across these sort of things. 

At the very least, we need to compare the two players when they are playing UNDER THE SAME RULES. For this comparison, we control for all of these variables by comparing the two players when they were both playing at the same time in the league, under the current/same rules. So, I'll be comparing the numbers between the two characters between 2004-2015 when they played together under the same rules. Basically, this way we control for the other variables, like the landscape of the league and the rules of the game. 

2004-2015
Brees
4825-7176    55,290 yards        399 Touchdowns        174 Interceptions
67.2%        7.71 Y/A    5.56 TD%        2.42 INT%    98.65 rating

Peyton
3997-5997    47,055 yards       372 Touchdowns        142 Interceptions
66.4%        7.84 Y/A    6.20 TD%            2.36%        101.13 rating

Now, Peyton's numbers look significantly better in every area other than completion percentage. This should tell you that statistically Peyton is the better player. But, at the same time, Peyton's downright horrendous 2015 season skews things a bit. Obviously, it is his own fault, and it needs to be taken into consideration. But it also is over a decade or so, and we might want to consider things without a clear outlier. 

2004-2014
Brees
4397-6549    50,420 yards        367 Touchdowns        163 Interceptions
67.1%        7.70 Y/A    5.60 TD%        2.49 INT%        98.42 rating

Peyton
3799-5666    44,806 yards        363 Touchdowns        125 Interceptions
67.0%        7.91 Y/A    6.41 TD%            2.21 INT%        103.1 rating        

....and it isn't even close. Peyton's advantage in every statistic other than CMP % has grown significantly, and he has almost caught up in CMP%.  Things get a little more ugly when you see that Brees had lost 26 fumbles to Peyton's 17 over the time.  He was generally always the better player and the numbers show it in the 12 years that they shared under the same rules. 

Career Accolades:

Brees:

1x First Team All-Pro

0x MVP

broke single season yardage record

Peyton: 

7x First Team All-Pro

5x MVP

broke single season yardage record,

broke single season touchdown record twice

broke single season passer rating record

 

....And it's not even close again. So again, I think that Brees is a great QB, and a clear first ballot Hall-of-Famer, but as of right now, and the 3rd best QB of this modern era of football. But, I simply don't think he is on the same level as Peyton Manning. I think it is kind of insulting to compare them because Peyton earned legendary status and to be in the GOAT conversation and Brees simply has not earned his way into the GOAT conversation IMO. 

 

 

 

[Raves]

A lot to digest.  You constantly want to discuss context and accolades, though I really dislike the accolades part since it's mostly a popularity contest, but let's use them against you.

So during the first 3 years of Brees starting he was playing for the Chargers and in a Marty Schott offense which we all know isn't exactly QB friendly, yet Brees still had a Pro Bowl year there. 

Offensive Production:

So let's look at the number of pro bowl/All Pro players that Manning had compared to Brees, disregarding rookie seasons for both since that was your criteria as having better talent on the offense, especially at skill positions that score TDs, will help increase your teams ability to have a high performing offense.

Manning - 16 years, 39 Pro Bowlers (12 OL, 27 Skill), 2.44/yr, 25 All-Pros (all sources)(6 OL, 19 Skill), 1.56/yr

Brees - 15 years, 24 Pro Bowlers (15 OL/9 Skill), 1.6/yr, 20 All-Pros (All Sources) (10 OL/10 Skill), 1.33/yr

So Brees has had the higher touted OL/FB(Brees had 3 instances of All-Pro FBs and 1 instance of a Pro Bowl FB) but Manning has had the much more highly touted WR/TE/RB.  So I would wager a guess that a QB with better receiving weapons would be able to put up better stats, especially in regards to TDs thrown and having a more prolific offense... obviously a good OL helps with that as well, but a QB without weapons can only do so much even with a good OL, and to be fair Manning never had a bad OL, they just weren't as highly touted.

Statistics:

Seriously, the stats are almost identical.  But if you want context, just go back to the offensive production area where Manning had better weapons to throw to which makes it easier to put up passing yards.  Brees has been doing this with typically good but not great WRs as well as often having to force throws as his defense was horrendous leading to more picks when trying to lead the team back from a deficit.

Accolades:

I really hate this stat, especially the fact I had to use them earlier, at QB specifically, they are often centered more around players on good teams than just straight up better players.  Brees broke the mode with most of his Pro Bowls because regardless of team record he was always putting up great stats, stats that look at a lot like Peyton Mannings under the same rules.  More yards, more TDs, high completion percentage... but wait a minute so Brees threw for more TDs but his teams on average had lower offensive rankings than Manning... so does that mean that maybe Manning had even more of a supporting cast which gives him a better overall record, requiring less chances to be taken, and a higher chance of being getting the votes for awards... I think so.

But whatever, I've spent too much time on this and am done.  I think it's insulting to think Manning is some legend but Brees isn't and an insult to Brees to constantly dismiss what he's done over his career.  He currently has more 5k seasons than all the other QBs combined for example.

[C0LTSFAN4L1F3]

6 minutes ago, Raves said:

Seriously, the stats are almost identical.  

LOLLLL. Almost identical? I can't take you seriously if you're going to throw out this garbage. This is an average across a huge time frame, the differences cannot possibly be too gigantic, even relatively small differences show an enormous trend across the time period. It isn't close, not even close to being close. Peyton has a relatively huge edge in every stat. 

And stop with this speculation about a popularity contest for these accolades. It is just a convenient excuse and nothing more. You have presented absolutely no reason to believe there is any biases. 

[MookieMonstah]

The fact that you’re using offensive rankings as justification for Manning being a better QB is LOL funny. Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Edgerrin James is a trio that Brees dreams about and he played with that for most of his career in Indy. 

[El Ramster]

10 minutes ago, MookieMonstah said:

The fact that you’re using offensive rankings as justification for Manning being a better QB is LOL funny. Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Edgerrin James is a trio that Brees dreams about and he played with that for most of his career in Indy. 

Excuses. Let's talk about all the other weapons. 

Dallas Clark, Tamme, Garcon and others. Manning made those around him great bby.. 

 

[tyler735]

21 minutes ago, El ramster said:

Excuses. Let's talk about all the other weapons. 

Dallas Clark, Tamme, Garcon and others. Manning made those around him great bby.. 

 

Garcon had more success with Washington than Indianapolis.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GarcPi00.htm

[El Ramster]

22 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

Garcon had more success with Washington than Indianapolis.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GarcPi00.htm

He got paid because of manning. He wasn’t healthy much in Ind. 

[C0LTSFAN4L1F3]

1 hour ago, MookieMonstah said:

The fact that you’re using offensive rankings as justification for Manning being a better QB is LOL funny. Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Edgerrin James is a trio that Brees dreams about and he played with that for most of his career in Indy. 

Offensive production is a great indicator of performance. That's the literal job of a QB. 

Sure, you can arbitrarily dismiss the gap in offensive production because you subjectively believe Peyton to have better weapons, but that's all it is; arbitrary. I mean first of all, It is incredibly hard to discern how good these players were and how much their success was related to playing with Peyton. Peyton makes everyone look infinitely better, so it is hard to tell anyway. (Inb4 someone says "BREES MAKES GUYS BETTER TOO" that is entirely beside the point.) 

Funny that the only counterargument I've seen is arbitrarily dismissing things entirely based on deeming Peyton's weapons so much better or the hilarious "The stats are identical" when they are anything but. 

 

[C0LTSFAN4L1F3]

1 hour ago, Raves said:

but wait a minute so Brees threw for more TDs but his teams on average had lower offensive rankings than Manning... so does that mean that maybe Manning had even more of a supporting cast which gives him a better overall record, requiring less chances to be taken, and a higher chance of being getting the votes for awards... I think so.

That is quite the huge leap in logic. You can't just make a claim like this without making any effort to support it whatsoever. Oh, and by the way, you say Brees threw for more TDs, but you realize in the aforementioned stats, Brees had 4/27 more touchdowns with an entire extra season right? Sooo that point completely falls apart if it didn't already. Oh, and even if he did throw more touchdowns, this was all on an efficiency basis anyway so it's a moot point. 

Quote

I think it's insulting to think Manning is some legend but Brees isn't and an insult to Brees to constantly dismiss what he's done over his career. 

 

I don't see it. There's a reason it was always Peyton vs Brady and not Peyton vs Brady vs Brees. Brees is demonstrably worse than the pair. Nobody is dismissing what he did, just acknowledging that what he did isn't good enough to be mentioned with Peyton/Brady. 

Quote

He currently has more 5k seasons than all the other QBs combined for example.

 

That's more of a reflection of how much he throws the ball than anything else. Only elite QB to throw it that many times, and that's the result. 

[tyler735]

15 minutes ago, El ramster said:

He got paid because of manning. He wasn’t healthy much in Ind. 

He was a good WR. He continued to get even better after leaving the Colts. He just doesn't fit the mold the others ones you mentioned do.

That said, Brees could be argued to have made guys like Lance Moore, Willie Snead, Kenny Stills, Ben Watson, etc look better than they actually are.

[Asciimo]

im just glad we got a colts fan in here to give manning his due. clear cut #3 all time in my book and deserves a good defense (to his legacy).

[C0LTSFAN4L1F3]

1 hour ago, Asciimo said:

im just glad we got a colts fan in here to give manning his due. clear cut #3 all time in my book and deserves a good defense (to his legacy).

Ahhh that's so sweet. 

Obviously I'm biased but I try to be as objective as I can. I really don't see any reason to believe that Brees and Peyton are on the same level. People like to be lazy and lazily look at stats in a vacuum and ignore everything else, but if you look deeper the gap becomes very large.

[showtime]

In no order

Tom Brady

Peyton Manning

Joe Montana

Drew Brees

 

The best 4 QB's to ever play the game.

[sammymvpknight]

5 hours ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said:

Ahhh that's so sweet. 

Obviously I'm biased but I try to be as objective as I can. I really don't see any reason to believe that Brees and Peyton are on the same level. People like to be lazy and lazily look at stats in a vacuum and ignore everything else, but if you look deeper the gap becomes very large.

Things based upon bias and subjective beliefs...indeed the gap widens. Lol at you being the objective one.