Just how good IS this New England team?

[Pats#1]

18 hours ago, CKS97 said:

Ask the Patriots how going to Denver worked for them.

They haven't won a road playoff game since January 2007

Because they very rarely have had to

[childofpudding]

42 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I mentioned it in the AFC vs. NFC thread, but NE's nowhere near the top 3 teams in the NFL this year.    As others mentioned, playing in the AFCE has really helped them this year.

They've gone out and won 1 road game vs. a good team - CHI, and it required 2 ST TD's to do that.  They've gotten crushed at DET and at TEN.   I'd agree it's no foregone conclusion they run the table, either, since MIA always gives them trouble, and PIT is still on the schedule (losing Conner hurts a ton though).  

At home, that's a team I never discount with BB & Brady.  On the road, though, especially if there are 2 of them....I don't see it this year.   Getting the 2 seed is crucial for them.

I disagree. You have a point about them on the road, but nonetheless they have beaten all three division leaders that they've played, one of them on the road. They seem to get up for big games and then have laid a couple eggs against bad teams. I think it is NO and LAR as the clear top 2, and then after that there are a whole mess of teams that you could argue for #3: KC, LAC, HOU, PIT, CHI, and NE. Saying they are "nowhere near" top 3 is a bit heavy, but I do see where you're coming from.

[Broncofan]

22 minutes ago, childofpudding said:

I disagree. You have a point about them on the road, but nonetheless they have beaten all three division leaders that they've played, one of them on the road. They seem to get up for big games and then have laid a couple eggs against bad teams. I think it is NO and LAR as the clear top 2, and then after that there are a whole mess of teams that you could argue for #3: KC, LAC, HOU, PIT, CHI, and NE. Saying they are "nowhere near" top 3 is a bit heavy, but I do see where you're coming from.

If your premise is that KC shouldn't be elevated on a pedestal above the rest of the AFC's best...sure, I can buy that.  I just do not buy into NE being a top-tier team at all.   I have no problem with the take LAR/NO belong there on their own.  

[childofpudding]

19 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

If your premise is that KC shouldn't be elevated on a pedestal above the rest of the AFC's best...sure, I can buy that.  I just do not buy into NE being a top-tier team at all.   I have no problem with the take LAR/NO belong there on their own.  

Yeah, that's pretty much where I'm at. NO and LAR on a tier of their own, and then a bunch of teams including NE on a tier below that.

[MWil23]

The Chargers and Chiefs being good/great teams in the same division combined with Pittsburgh's rare ability to completely choke and meltdown may just give New England a 1st round bye and potentially home field advantage yet. Just you watch. Couldn't everyone else just see a 13-3 KC or SD have to travel to a 12-4/11-5 New England in Foxboro?

[game3525]

2 hours ago, childofpudding said:

Yeah, that's pretty much where I'm at. NO and LAR on a tier of their own, and then a bunch of teams including NE on a tier below that.

I disagree with this.

I just don't think NO and LA are good enough all around to be in a tier of their own. I think both teams are the best in the league, but the gap between them and tier two is not that big IMO. This isn't like 2013 in which it was clear that the 49ers and Seahawks were playing in a different league from everyone else. 

 

[childofpudding]

9 minutes ago, game3525 said:

I disagree with this.

I just don't think NO and LA are good enough all around to be in a tier of their own. I think both teams are the best in the league, but the gap between them and tier two is not that big IMO. This isn't like 2013 in which it was clear that the 49ers and Seahawks were playing in a different league from everyone else. 

 

Should probably add Denver to that 2013 list, but yeah, that's a good point.

[NJerseypaint]

3 hours ago, lancerman said:

2001- nowhere near Super Bowl favorites

2003- Manning had an MVP year

2004- they had Manning having the best QB year since 1984 and a 15-1 Steelers team who they lost to 

2007- they were clearly the favorites 

2011- had a horrendous defense and weren’t viewed as anything special 

2014- the Pats hadn’t made it over the hump in awhile, the Ravens were viewed as Kryptonite. They were down by 14 points twice in he divisional round

2016- Steelers were viewed as a threat. They just crapped the bed

2017- Jaguars were viewed as a huge threat who almost beat them. Steelers also played them very competitively in the regular season 

2007 was a special case and 2016 had a weak AFC field. Those were the only years. Nobody would have been surprised to see any of those other years go a different way

First, I'm not talking about every season that Tom Brady has played in the NFL. Like c'mon, let's keep things somewhat recent.

Second, the Patriots were still favorites in nearly all your examples. So what constitutes a threat? I'd think it'd be a team that's expected to beat you, not lose.

[game3525]

6 minutes ago, childofpudding said:

Should probably add Denver to that 2013 list, but yeah, that's a good point.

Yeah, you can throw Denver in there (granted they weren't as well round as the other two teams). 

[CKS97]

On 12/5/2018 at 9:28 AM, Broncofan said:

I mentioned it in the AFC vs. NFC thread, but NE's nowhere near the top 3 teams in the NFL this year.    As others mentioned, playing in the AFCE has really helped them this year.

They've gone out and won 1 road game vs. a good team - CHI, and it required 2 ST TD's to do that.  They've gotten crushed at DET and at TEN.   I'd agree it's no foregone conclusion they run the table, either, since MIA always gives them trouble, and PIT is still on the schedule (losing Conner hurts a ton though).  

At home, that's a team I never discount with BB & Brady.  On the road, though, especially if there are 2 of them....I don't see it this year.   Getting the 2 seed is crucial for them.

If Houston keeps winning and they potentially trip up at Miami AND Pittsburgh..... 

If they have to play on Wild Card Weekend, they ain't going anywhere.

They are the type of team that can only win in their precious Foxboro. Get them on the road in January..... ask Denver.

Only 3 road playoff wins since 2001- and if you remember, Bledsoe had to come in for one of those. So Brady has only 2 road wins.

Plus, when you're as old as he is, can he be this effective in the cold? See: Favre, 2007 NFC-CG.

[game3525]

Quote

f Houston keeps winning and they potentially trip up at Miami AND Pittsburgh..... 

If they have to play on Wild Card Weekend, they ain't going anywhere.

They are the type of team that can only win in their precious Foxboro. Get them on the road in January..... ask Denver.

This is such bad faith. 

The Pats barely play road playoff games because they always have a top seed. This doesn't mean they can't go on the road to win a playoff game. 

Quote

Plus, when you're as old as he is, can he be this effective in the cold? See: Favre, 2007 NFC-CG.

He literally plays cold weather playoff games every year and has no issues.

[RuskieTitan]

Can't compete with the Titans, I'll say that.

[CKS97]

I beleive this team is a little bit of a mirage roster-wise that is getting by on reputation and the Brady/Belichick mystique.

I don't think they're THAT talented. It's like Belichick is basically assembing random cogs that he can coach up.

[Elky]

On 12/4/2018 at 1:38 AM, CKS97 said:

They seem a little different from past Patriot teams.

Little older, they don't have explosive playmakers, Gronk isn't the Gronk of a few years back, Brady IS 41, Belichick is no spring chicken, they don't have a great pass rush.

And yet.... they seemingly never lose at home, they find ways to find ways, when a team is addicted to winning they seemingly have eternal winning DNA.

At times, they haven't been great on the road. They seem to be the team that cannot afford to slip up in terms of HFA- they are invincible at home, but when they went to Denver twice in recent years they have been tripped up.

Given the age and potential salary cap uncertainty (lot of guys are due for new contracts next year), could this be their last real shot?

I mean, can Brady keep this up at 42? How much longer does Belichick coach?

[SBLIII]

4 hours ago, CKS97 said:

I beleive this team is a little bit of a mirage roster-wise that is getting by on reputation and the Brady/Belichick mystique.

I don't think they're THAT talented. It's like Belichick is basically assembing random cogs that he can coach up.

That talented? How many NE teams were THAT talented post 2007?

This NE team actually has above average talent compared to other NE teams and those other NE teams usually still at least made it to the AFCCG. 

Compared to last year, offense is worse and defense is better. 

The reasons on offense? Gronk decline and injuries. 

Gronk isn't the same player but this isn't the issue. More so that also other key offensive players missed significant time. Michel healthy for 4-5 games, Gronk as mentioned missed significant time,. Cannon the best tackle also, team traded for Gordon during the season and he obviously just now is getting fully integrated, Burkhead just came back from IR, best OL Mason missed games. These are the reason the offense and Brady's numbers look pedestrian. For a good chunk of the year NE had no running game because of injuries and it resulted in some bad losses.

Defense is significantly better. Defensive backs better, linebackers better, DL better. The linebackers are just solid and probably still bottom 3rd in the league but still a big improvement over the leagues worst LB corp last season. Every starter is better than their counterpart from last year.

The biggest improvement is DB play. Gilmore is better than last year, McCourty J. is better than 2017 Butler, McCourty D. is slightly better than last year, Chung and Harmon about the same.

Flowers and Guy are good to very good this year which alone makes the DL better than last season.

In summary, worse offense and better defense than last year. However offense was plagued with injuries and could significantly improve down the stretch now that they are healthy. They showed in stretches that they can be very good, injuries derailed it though.

Last season I thought NE had 2 All Pro/Pro Bowl caliber players in Brady and Gronk, this year I see 2 as well in Flowers and Gilmore with obviously more potential on offense than they showed so far.

 

I really like this team and if other people don't view NE as a true SB contender, so be it. They obviously don't mind flying under the radar.