Call Your Shot: Lamar Jackson

[wackywabbit]

3 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

Most Raven fans seem pretty damn high on him.

I haven't seen Ravens fans acting like they are 100% he's going to a great long term starter. He's obviously got electric athleticism that makes him a delight to watch, had positive flashes throwing the ball, and was impressively able to step in help the team win games at a very early stage of his career.

I have OTOH seen many fans acting like they are convinced he's got no chance to make it because he can't improve because reasons. The logic baffles me because the same people will take for granted that other QBs who are at the same stage or more developed will certainly improve. If the other guys are more polished etc, doesn't that mean it should be for them to improve?

Can't mention enough that he was a 21 year old rookie and we saw him for just 7 games. Every Ravens fan will tell you that he has to improve as a passer to be a long term answer. Those who actually watched him closely (and aren't just saying that) will be able to point out that a large chunk of his bad inaccuracies correlated with poor mechanics on the throw and/or throwing on the run without squaring up/getting set. He was actually much more efficient when sitting in the pocket. The mechanics issue has been mentioned as a focal point by everyone including Harbaugh, Greg Roman, and Eric Decosta. Lamar has impressed everyone in the building with his attitude and his work ethic. They wouldn't have benched and shipped off Flacco to hand him the most important spot on the team if he didn't earn it in that regard. While I may be the biased/homer fan I'm just waiting to see how it turns out and I don't get why some people like (the OP of this thread) are in such a rush to write off a rookie QB when we've seen careers go in many different directions.

[SkippyX]

His run was against some of the worst defenses over the last several years.

That Sand Diego game only looked slightly less than terrible because the D let that awful duck throw over the middle get past them when it should have been an easy pick.

Might he grow to be a good QB?  Sure

Did he show it based on last year? Absolutely not

Here are the opponent defenses from his starts:

Team  Points D Yards D

• Bengals 30 32
• Raiders 32 26
• Falcons 25 28
• Chiefs 24 31
• Tampa 31 27
• Browns 21 30
• Chargers 8 9

He faced 1 defense that was not garbage and they absolutely humiliated him in the rematch

[BleedTheClock]

18 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

The logic baffles me because the same people will take for granted that other QBs who are at the same stage or more developed will certainly improve.

He is so far behind as a thrower that he's not really comparable to other NFL QB's that are considered "potential long-term franchise QB's." Maybe guys like Mayfield and Darnold don't improve at all. But that'd still be good enough to make it in the NFL. Lamar Jackson needs to mightily improve his skills to remain an NFL starter unless you think this running game for Baltimore is just going to be unstoppable for the next 10 years.

[wackywabbit]

6 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Maybe guys like Mayfield and Darnold don't improve at all. But that'd still be good enough to make it in the NFL.

Eh... Darnold certainly does needs to improve from his rookie to be a long term starter. Mayfield, if he doesn't "improve at all", may continue to be an average starter, like the next Andy Dalton or something.

[AkronsWitness]

1 minute ago, BleedTheClock said:

He is so far behind as a thrower that he's not really comparable to other NFL QB's that are considered "potential long-term franchise QB's." Maybe guys like Mayfield and Darnold don't improve at all. But that'd still be good enough to make it in the NFL. Lamar Jackson needs to mightily improve his skills to remain an NFL starter unless you think this running game for Baltimore is just going to be unstoppable for the next 10 years.

Yeah, he can improve as a passer he has a good enough motion but I just cant shake the whole Tebow thing. Through a similar sample, they have the same TD/INT ratio, both dead last in NFL in comp%, but Jackson only averaged 75 passing yards a game. Tebow averaged 125 for comparison and people though he was the worst QB they have ever seen. They also both have similar rushing stats.

Tebow- 122 attempts/660 yards/6 TDs/5.4 YPC

Jackson- 147 attempts/697 yards/ 5 TDs/4.7 YPC

He might be able to improve as a passer with a good offseason because he does have faaaar better mechanics than Tebow, but there is a very steep hill to climb there. Maybe he gets to Philly Mike Vick at some point just like he did, but I would say its a 50/50 coin flip whether he is going to be out of the league in 3 years or Vick.

[Thomas5737]

25 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

Eh... Darnold certainly does needs to improve from his rookie to be a long term starter. Mayfield, if he doesn't "improve at all", may continue to be an average starter, like the next Andy Dalton or something.

Dalton has had 1 season with a better rating than Mayfield had last year. One season with more TD passes. Lets not act like Baker was mediocre. Sure, 17th or whatever in rating but he was a top 10 QB last year. Maybe he regresses, doesn't seem like he will but Dalton was looked at as a top 10 QB only a year or two.

[Nex_Gen]

If you can't drop back and throw the ball on a consistent basis in this league, you won't go anywhere. Lamar has to learn that before he even learns to throw...

[Bonanza23]

I has disappoint @Kiwibrown 

[NudeTayne]

1 hour ago, AkronsWitness said:

Yeah, he can improve as a passer he has a good enough motion but I just cant shake the whole Tebow thing. Through a similar sample, they have the same TD/INT ratio, both dead last in NFL in comp%, but Jackson only averaged 75 passing yards a game. Tebow averaged 125 for comparison and people though he was the worst QB they have ever seen. They also both have similar rushing stats.

Tebow- 122 attempts/660 yards/6 TDs/5.4 YPC

Jackson- 147 attempts/697 yards/ 5 TDs/4.7 YPC

He might be able to improve as a passer with a good offseason because he does have faaaar better mechanics than Tebow, but there is a very steep hill to climb there. Maybe he gets to Philly Mike Vick at some point just like he did, but I would say its a 50/50 coin flip whether he is going to be out of the league in 3 years or Vick.

tl;dr bring back Tebow.

[BleedTheClock]

1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

Dalton has had 1 season with a better rating than Mayfield had last year. One season with more TD passes. Lets not act like Baker was mediocre. Sure, 17th or whatever in rating but he was a top 10 QB last year. Maybe he regresses, doesn't seem like he will but Dalton was looked at as a top 10 QB only a year or two.

I see his point though. If Baker never improves, he'd be outside the range of the elite QB's in the NFL. That being said, Baker has a much higher upside, a much better arm, much better mobility, and has already reached or slightly surpassed Dalton's peak levels as a rookie. Mayfield's "WOW" throws from his rookie season already outclass the "WOW" throws from Dalton's entire NFL career.

 

I would be absolutely shocked if Baltimore is not looking for a new QB in 2020.

[43M]

Its way too soon to judge him one way or another, but based on watching him last year, I dont see a true franchise QB.   Again, thats not saying anything definitive....but there are QBs you watch and get a feel for what their ceiling is and what direction they are heading.    Lamar's game feels very familiar, and not really in a good way.    He is capable of making some nice throws, but nothing about his passing is remotely consistent, and typically, his type of QB style doesnt fair well in the long term.     So while it may be too soon to pass any kind of final judgment, I am certainly not optimistic about his outlook....at least in regards to being a long term answer at QB.

As of RIGHT NOW, I would say I think the Ravens can have some success with him, but it will always be limited IMO.   I dont think, at this point, he is the type of QB that can take them above and beyond without some major help.     Fortunately for him, he is playing for a quality organization that knows how to put talent around him (well, except for maybe WR).

That outlook could obviously change, but I dont see the flaws in his passing game as being extremely coachable or improvable.    Not impossible, but he would have to make an unforeseen leap in his passing ability before I would be convinced he can be a franchise QB.

And before some Ravens fan blindly calls me a hater, I actually thought he was a solid pick for them and thought the Ravens were one of the better teams he couldve went to...but while I liked LJ coming out, I had some major concerns, and I still have them after watching his rookie year.      IMO, it will come down to how he adapts to how opposing defenses adapt to him after getting some tape on him...and thats where alot of similar QBs flutter IMO....they cant improve their passing game enough and instead try more and more to rely on their athleticism, and it gets them in trouble.

But again, as of right now, its too early to say much of anything.

[BleedTheClock]

7 minutes ago, FourThreeMafia said:

And before some Ravens fan blindly calls me a hater, I actually thought he was a solid pick for them and thought the Ravens were one of the better teams he couldve went to...but while I liked LJ coming out, I had some major concerns, and I still have them after watching his rookie year.   

This is where I'm at. It was certainly worth a shot to try and strike gold with Jackson, but he is so far away from a mechanics and processing standpoint that it's hard to ever imagine him becoming a great QB. I wanted Jackson's highlight reel plays to translate to the NFL for my own entertainment, but I don't think he's cut out for this game at this level. He's a 1-trick pony and that trick is relatively easy to stop once teams start preparing for it. The Chargers gave NFL teams the formula for stopping this offense and they do not have a viable counter to it right now. That's going to be the death knell of the Ravens, especially if their defense cannot continue to carry them to victories.

[wackywabbit]

8 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

The Chargers gave NFL teams the formula for stopping this offense and they do not have a viable counter to it right now.

What the Chargers did is completely dominate the line of scrimmage for 3 quarters, giving no time for Lamar or space in the running game. That's not a new formula and it works on every quarterback. They said themselves that they were able to figure out the coming play based on Ronnie Stanley's alignment. Bottom line is their D-line dominated the Ravens O-line. That's what shut down the Ravens offense, not the more DB's less LB's on the field that kept getting talked about.

Again back to the same point: your claim that the Ravens can't counter something is baseless until they actually play more games. You can't call something a formula if it just works one time. I'm sure the Ravens would love another look at that personnel grouping and run directly at those non-linebackers. 

 

[MacReady]

Lamar Jackson had better numbers than any of the first round quarterbacks from last year except for Baker Mayfield, whom I had forgotten about for some reason.  Better TD:INT, better completion percentage, better yards per attempt.

However, he also had the best defense, averaged 10 less pass attempts than Darnold, 7 less than Allen and 8 less than Rosen. 

When the scripted plays run out and the Ravens have to play catch up, he's not gonna cut it.  Evidenced by 14/29 (48.3%), 6.7 YPA, 2 TD one INT against the Chargers.  That's a bad game.  If you're completing less than 50% of your passes, that's a bad game. 

Lamar Jackson, I think, is as good as the Ravens running game and defense is. 

[john305]

Historically most (or maybe all?) college QB's who completed under 60% of their passes go on to be bad starters in the pro's.