Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2019 - Cardinals at 1

[BleedTheClock]

On 4/30/2019 at 5:14 PM, goldfishwars said:

Kaden Smith was very well liked until he tested very poorly indeed, but there’s stuff to like about what he put out. As ex-Stanford tight ends go, he’s probably more Jim Dray than Zach Ertz.

I dunno...I really liked Kaden Smith. I had him as my 3rd rated TE behind Hock and Fant. I wanted to kill him for his speed grade, but it didn't show up as a glaring deficiency on tape. I mean, he didn't run past anyone but he didn't really need to. He's an excellent blocker and knows how to find seams in the zone. Catches everything. I thought he would go in the late 2nd-early 3rd right about where Drew Sample went instead.

[goldfishwars]

15. Green Bay Packers

Selections
12. Green Bay Packers - Rashan Gary  [ DE ] Michigan
21. Green Bay Packers - Darnell Savage Jr.  [ S ] Maryland
44. Green Bay Packers - Elgton Jenkins  [ C ] Mississippi State
75. Green Bay Packers - Jace Sternberger  [ TE ] Texas A&M
150. Green Bay Packers - Kingsley Keke  [ DT ] Texas A&M
185. Green Bay Packers - Ka'dar Hollman  [ CB ] Toledo
194. Green Bay Packers - Dexter Williams  [ RB ] Notre Dame
226. Green Bay Packers - Ty Summers  [ LB ] TCU

Picks Heading In
12. 
30.
44.
75. 
114.
118.
150.
185.
194.
226.

Favorite Pick 
Jace Sternberger – Just a gut punch for Patriots fans (as in me) when he was taken two picks before the Patriots with BB shuffling around. The top receiving TE in PFF’s draft grades, he does a bit of everything you would want from the position, but has that key playmaking ability down the field. The dude made at least one 20 yard grab in 12 of 13 games in 2018, which should make him an obvious and consistent target for Aaron Rodgers who has to be delighted at the new addition. I genuinely think he could help tie this whole offense together.

Overview
Green Bay are another team who went into the draft with a truck-full of draft capital and then didn’t really execute a plan many expected to see. It’s Brian Gutekunst’s second year as GM after graduating from Ron Wolf’s Wizarding School for Scouts and GMs and he had a bit of a leftfield first day, followed by an extremely good second day and then kind of a solid third day. 

Rashan Gary clearly has all of the athleticism in the world, I just want to see where that makes a consistent difference because there’s not a lot of production to point to with this guy. Combine that with a bum shoulder which apparently needs surgery, I’m not sold on the value at 12 here. He should get excellent coaching at Green Bay which puts a gloss on the pick unfairly or not. Add the fact he was announced as an outside linebacker to the mix and it is all very intriguing, so perhaps there’s a clear plan for how to use him which maximises his considerable gifts. 

The trade up for Savage is far, far from disastrous, but still falls into a ‘did that need to happen?’ category. Obviously there must have been fears he was about to be selected by another team, but it was a deep safety crop and whilst Savage is a lot of fun on tape, I don’t think he was so much fun he separated himself from the crowd enough to justify this move. Sure he’s another athletic marvel, and he plays like a heat-seeking missile on the field. The Packers have spent a lot of high picks on defensive backs in recent years, so maybe they’ve finally drafted a guy they actually like. 

I really like the Elgton Jenkins pick-up at 44. He’s a little slow footed, but is so stout and powerful that he just stoned everything thrown at him at Mississippi State giving up a ridiculously low pressure percentage. He could fill-in at center or guard and the Packers should not miss a beat. A good run on picks continued with Kingsley Keke at 150, an easy moving interior defensive lineman who has some upside as a third down pass-rusher. 

Another DB at 185, why not? I didn’t see much of Ka'dar Hollman, but he’s got an interesting story and another SPARQsy late round shot on someone who put up a pro-day line which featured a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, a 38-inch vertical and a 6.81 3-cone. Dexter Williams I didn’t get as a prospect, the Packers are weird with their running back picks – I can’t get a feel for what they like. Williams looks the part, but just goes down on first contact a too easy for my liking. The Ty Summers pick finishes proceedings off, as a moderately well-rounded linebacker whose very good athletic testing did not really match his play speed.
 

[SBLIII]

The Pats had my #2 draft this year but I respect different opinions as long as they are explained and you do that very well.

 

As for the Packers, I like the trade up for Savage (I usually hate trade ups) way more than the selection of Gary. Gary to me is too much of a reach because of his bust factor. Savage should be a difference maker day 1.

[Hunter2_1]

You are far too low on your own team. Homer remarks successfully avoided 

[Shanedorf]

5 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

The trade up for Savage is far, far from disastrous, but still falls into a ‘did that need to happen?’ category. Obviously there must have been fears he was about to be selected by another team,

Excellent write up, thanks for doing it
The Raiders were on Savage at 24 per the post- draft reports. Others mentioned the Ravens were interested and they moved back after the Packers picked. Milt Hendrickson, personnel guy from BAL moved from the Ravens to GB in December, bringing with him a peek into BAL's draft plans. Nothing certain of course, but there were some hints as to why GB felt the need to jump up.

Edited May 3, 2019 by Shanedorf

[SBLIII]

2 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Excellent write up, thanks for doing it
The Raiders were on Savage at 24 per the post- draft reports. Others mentioned the Ravens were interested and they moved back after the Packers picked. Milt Hendrickson, personnel guy from BAL moved from the Ravens to GB in December, bringing with him a peek into BAL's draft plans. Nothing certain of course, but there were some hints as to why GB felt the need to jump up.

Definitely interesting. Were the Raiders preferring Savage over Jacobs? Did they know that the Eagles would jump  Houston and select a T instead?

[PossibleCabbage]

Well, the one scout on McGinn's side said about Savage something like "you don't want to compare guys to Earl Thomas, but yeah with him I see it."  So it's conceivable he was a guy the NFL likes a lot more than the media scouts.  Regardless of how many high DB picks they have made, the biggest hole on defense was still "who's going to be the other safety?"

Plus, the Packers first round was only strange if you weren't listening to Green Bay fans.   I know a lot of people in the media were saying "this draft is all about getting weapons for Aaron Rodgers" but that was a sentiment based on nothing- it's just a thing that sounds good.  A lot of GB folks who are tuned in were expecting an edge at 12, then a safety and a defensive tackle with 30 and 44 for months now.  So 2/3 were correct, but most didn't have that particular combination of players.

Regarding Gary- he was announced as a linebacker because that makes the 5th year option cheaper (average of 3rd and 25th paid LBs, as opposed to average of 3rd and 2th DEs).  Considering Green Bay is one of the more medically conservative teams, I don't think the shoulder is a real concern.  As for the bust potential, sure he absolutely needs an inside counter desperately, but he's already very good against the run so you can have him on the field while that develops (unlike a smaller guy like Burns who teams would run at on purpose.)  I figure the plan is to use him much like Jadeveon Clowney is used in Houston, Clowney is a more advanced technician but Gary is improbably slightly more athletic.

Edited May 3, 2019 by PossibleCabbage

[goldfishwars]

30 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

Plus, the Packers first round was only strange if you weren't listening to Green Bay fans.   I know a lot of people in the media were saying "this draft is all about getting weapons for Aaron Rodgers" but that was a sentiment based on nothing- it's just a thing that sounds good.  A lot of GB folks who are tuned in were expecting an edge at 12, then a safety and a defensive tackle with 30 and 44 for months now.  So 2/3 were correct, but most didn't have that particular combination of players.

Nah, the position groups they took in th first were familiar- but the players were a surprise. Not so much Savage, but the trade up to get him. If you mocked that days before the draft, I can't imagine it would have gone down well. 

[PossibleCabbage]

2 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

Nah, the position groups they took in th first were familiar- but the players were a surprise. Not so much Savage, but the trade up to get him. If you mocked that days before the draft, I can't imagine it would have gone down well. 

I figure the biggest response would have been something like "I like Savage, but couldn't he be had at 33 or 44?" but Gutekunst went on record saying he "knew for a fact" Savage wouldn't have been there at 30 so they at least strongly suspected the move was necessary.  "Know for a fact" is a level of epistemic certainty that likely requires subterfuge (Reggie McKenzie was a GB guy, and his twin brother is/was a Raiders scout, and Savage looks a lot better with Karl Joseph than Abram does), or someone just called him up after the pick and said "you got our guy."

I mean, the safety group was deep, but if you wanted a super rangy guy with instincts it was not that deep.  Green Bay's been looking for that guy since Nick Collins' career was unfortunately cut short by a spinal injury (he's fine, he's just done with collision sports forever.)

[Chrissooner49er]

Well, I vehemently disagree with the Pack's draft being ranked higher than my 9ers... I dislike GB's top 2 picks as over-rated. Gary is the epitome of what you hope a guy might be with so little production to show for his career in Ann Arbor. There is nothing to say he won't bust in the NFL. And Savage? Trading up for a S as raw as Savage?! Yikes. No, this is one of the worst drafts, in my opinion.

But hey, this is your thread, not mine. 

[N4L]

3 hours ago, SBLIII said:

Definitely interesting. Were the Raiders preferring Savage over Jacobs? Did they know that the Eagles would jump  Houston and select a T instead?

No. I read a story about how when the eagles traded up the raiders feared that it would be for Jacobs

[BleedTheClock]

I don’t get the Darnell Savage love. I thought this was a bad draft for GB to be honest. Didn’t really like a single one of their picks until the ND RB. 

[Shanedorf]

41 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

I thought this was a bad draft for GB to be honest. Didn’t really like a single one of their picks until the ND RB

That's a popular sentiment -  among many Packers fans too.
Any insight on CB Ka' Dar Hollman out of Toledo ?

Also: Weren't you the guy who bet his life that Joe Jackson would go top 100 ? Glad yer still with us

[Ozzy]

10 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

15. Green Bay Packers

Selections
12. Green Bay Packers - Rashan Gary  [ DE ] Michigan
21. Green Bay Packers - Darnell Savage Jr.  [ S ] Maryland
44. Green Bay Packers - Elgton Jenkins  [ C ] Mississippi State
75. Green Bay Packers - Jace Sternberger  [ TE ] Texas A&M
150. Green Bay Packers - Kingsley Keke  [ DT ] Texas A&M
185. Green Bay Packers - Ka'dar Hollman  [ CB ] Toledo
194. Green Bay Packers - Dexter Williams  [ RB ] Notre Dame
226. Green Bay Packers - Ty Summers  [ LB ] TCU

Picks Heading In
12. 
30.
44.
75. 
114.
118.
150.
185.
194.
226.

Favorite Pick 
Jace Sternberger – Just a gut punch for Patriots fans (as in me) when he was taken two picks before the Patriots with BB shuffling around. The top receiving TE in PFF’s draft grades, he does a bit of everything you would want from the position, but has that key playmaking ability down the field. The dude made at least one 20 yard grab in 12 of 13 games in 2018, which should make him an obvious and consistent target for Aaron Rodgers who has to be delighted at the new addition. I genuinely think he could help tie this whole offense together.

Overview
Green Bay are another team who went into the draft with a truck-full of draft capital and then didn’t really execute a plan many expected to see. It’s Brian Gutekunst’s second year as GM after graduating from Ron Wolf’s Wizarding School for Scouts and GMs and he had a bit of a leftfield first day, followed by an extremely good second day and then kind of a solid third day. 

Rashan Gary clearly has all of the athleticism in the world, I just want to see where that makes a consistent difference because there’s not a lot of production to point to with this guy. Combine that with a bum shoulder which apparently needs surgery, I’m not sold on the value at 12 here. He should get excellent coaching at Green Bay which puts a gloss on the pick unfairly or not. Add the fact he was announced as an outside linebacker to the mix and it is all very intriguing, so perhaps there’s a clear plan for how to use him which maximises his considerable gifts. 

The trade up for Savage is far, far from disastrous, but still falls into a ‘did that need to happen?’ category. Obviously there must have been fears he was about to be selected by another team, but it was a deep safety crop and whilst Savage is a lot of fun on tape, I don’t think he was so much fun he separated himself from the crowd enough to justify this move. Sure he’s another athletic marvel, and he plays like a heat-seeking missile on the field. The Packers have spent a lot of high picks on defensive backs in recent years, so maybe they’ve finally drafted a guy they actually like. 

I really like the Elgton Jenkins pick-up at 44. He’s a little slow footed, but is so stout and powerful that he just stoned everything thrown at him at Mississippi State giving up a ridiculously low pressure percentage. He could fill-in at center or guard and the Packers should not miss a beat. A good run on picks continued with Kingsley Keke at 150, an easy moving interior defensive lineman who has some upside as a third down pass-rusher. 

Another DB at 185, why not? I didn’t see much of Ka'dar Hollman, but he’s got an interesting story and another SPARQsy late round shot on someone who put up a pro-day line which featured a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, a 38-inch vertical and a 6.81 3-cone. Dexter Williams I didn’t get as a prospect, the Packers are weird with their running back picks – I can’t get a feel for what they like. Williams looks the part, but just goes down on first contact a too easy for my liking. The Ty Summers pick finishes proceedings off, as a moderately well-rounded linebacker whose very good athletic testing did not really match his play speed.
 

I think they could be kicking themselves for not drawing Nasir Adderley in the 1st or 2nd round.  Could say the same thing for Jonathan Adram who is a better player than Savage I feel.  I agree with Jace, that kid has star potential at TE.  Amazing route runner and just came on so strong this past year, big time talent who can really make plays from the TE position.

 

Keke was a great pickup for that system, he can get after it and has the size to play 3/4 DE, and Summers is a fine pickup late.  Has ILB and OLB ability, rushed the passer this past year on TCU and did ok.  Could be a fine ILB and will have time to develop as well as a backup.  Their front 7 is greatly improve compared to what it was last season no question.

Edited May 3, 2019 by Ozzy

[Packerraymond]

3 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

I think they could be kicking themselves for not drawing Nasir Adderley in the 1st or 2nd round.  Could say the same thing for Jonathan Adram who is a better player than Savage I feel.  I agree with Jace, that kid has star potential at TE.  Amazing route runner and just came on so strong this past year, big time talent who can really make plays from the TE position.

Packers have no use for a player like Abram who's a box safety in the mold of Amos. They needed a 1-high guy. Your best options by far were Adderley and Savage. I had them rated 1A and 1B for us. In Adderley you have a guy who couldn't get through a workout this draft season without getting hurt and not nearly the tackler Savage is. His ball skills are slightly better but Savage was above average there too.

As far as a Packers draft as a whole, they trusted Mike Pettine on day 1 and went for the home run instead of the double. They could've gone safe at 12 and taken Christian Wilkins and then stayed put at 30 and got Adderley. They went for the HR though, both guys we got have higher ceilings than those players and as the "HC" of our defense so to speak, Pettine will get total control of how he wants to utilize these guys.

One things for sure in GB, the days of Ted and Dom where Ted would pull BPA off his board and hope Dom could figure it out is over. Gary and Savage are Pettine's kind of guys and the blame will fall on him if they don't pan out.