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The Milwaukee Brewers Thread - CY Burnes, 2021 NL Central Champs


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13 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Rizzo called Hader the best in the business. 

Rizzo knows. 

The crazy thing is that there is legitimate reason to think Hader could actually get better.

  1. The Brewers spent last year paying for the fact that they way over-used him in April/early May. They know more now about how much rest he needs. We've talked about it here before; a rested Hader is better than the 2018 average Hader.
  2. He's thrown some change ups this year after not throwing any last year.
  3. This sounds contrary to number 2, but he's throwing less breaking stuff than last year. He knows hitters can't hit his fastball when he's 100%, so there's no point in going with anything else. But on an off night where he doesn't have his A game (which should be fewer than last year since the Brewers know how he responds to rest better now), instead of having just the SL to fall back on, he's got 2 other pitches that he can throw.
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Brewers HR rate allowed right now is the primary problem.

Brewers are allowing HRs on 21% of their flyballs, 4th highest in the league. Median in the league is 13.8%. In 2018, Brewers were basically league average at 12.5%. Brewers xFIP (normalizing HR-rate) is 4.22 which ranks 12th.

The staff isn't great but it doesn't have to be great. They've given up a lot of HRs and this rate just isn't sustainable. Essentially the baseball equivalent of teams shooting 50% from 3 for two weeks against you. It happens and it sucks and it'll regress.

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36 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

Brewers HR rate allowed right now is the primary problem.

Brewers are allowing HRs on 21% of their flyballs, 4th highest in the league. Median in the league is 13.8%. In 2018, Brewers were basically league average at 12.5%. Brewers xFIP (normalizing HR-rate) is 4.22 which ranks 12th.

The staff isn't great but it doesn't have to be great. They've given up a lot of HRs and this rate just isn't sustainable. Essentially the baseball equivalent of teams shooting 50% from 3 for two weeks against you. It happens and it sucks and it'll regress.

Did they install a fan behind home plate to blow balls out or something?  Brewers also lead the league by a fair margin in HR/FB rate on offense (23.2%).  They are simulatenously getting really lucky on offense and really unlucky when pitching in this regard.

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27 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

Did they install a fan behind home plate to blow balls out or something?  Brewers also lead the league by a fair margin in HR/FB rate on offense (23.2%).  They are simulatenously getting really lucky on offense and really unlucky when pitching in this regard.

MIL and CHC doing a number on each other's HR rates.

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