Browns send Duke to Texans

[buno67]

1 minute ago, ET80 said:

I can say with certainty that his next contract won't be with Houston. BOB/Caserio (because he'll be the GM by the time this contract is complete) is going the Belicheck route, finding RBs and deploying them as cannon fodder. 

Duke Johnson has an expiration date with the Texans, I'm pretty sure on that.

Yeah I agree that it won’t be with the Texans but that he won’t get the value he will seek cause of the contract he got last year 

[candyman93]

Duke is a good player. This is a smart move by Houston.

[tab]

6 minutes ago, buno67 said:

He Carries not dead cap space because the browns gave him all his money up front. I think the browns made his contract easy to get out of for the 20 and 21 season. 

If you trade a 3rd him, would you really want to cut him in ‘20 or ‘21?

2-3 years is about the going rate for our 3rd round draft picks these days

Edited August 8, 2019 by tab

[AkronsWitness]

Hmmmmm I think somebody was saying a few days ago in the Foreman released thread how the Texans should trade a 4th for Duke Johnson. 

I am now a NFL insider from this point forward please direct all questions to akronswitness@ff.com and I will respond accordingly. You can also reach me by phone at 216-SOURCES

[buno67]

1 minute ago, tab said:

2-3 years is about the going rate for our 3rd round draft picks these days

Yeah but your not paying that 3rd pick $2m, $4m, and $5m like duke

For comparison, Zach Allen the first 3rd pick this year will make $500k, $700k, $900k, and $1m the next four years. 

[ET80]

2 minutes ago, buno67 said:

Yeah but your not paying that 3rd pick $2m, $4m, and $5m like duke

For comparison, Zach Allen the first 3rd pick this year will make $500k, $700k, $900k, and $1m the next four years. 

To this point, Zach Allen is an unknown commodity. He might earn that contract, he might outperform that contract, he might underperform that contract... he might not ever see the field, even. 

At least with Duke Johnson, you know he's able to compete against this level at a solid rate.

[Broncofan]

13 minutes ago, buno67 said:

That is true. Still makes hIm a top15 paid back tho

Sure, but the market dictates the deals.  Right now, Jerick McKinnon and Dion Lewis are the 6th/8th highest paid 2020 RB's.   And Latavius Murray, Rex Burkhead and Mike Davis are 14, 15 & 16.   To go after Duke's $ contract value on a true contender seems like a non-issue.

RIght now, the difference between top 15 and top 25 RB is 1-1.5M a year.   For a contender, that's peanuts.   Now, if this was DEN & Theo Riddick (a deal I'm still very meh on), that 1.5M+ lost (his deal is 1M guaranteed, 2.5M salary if he plays the season, vs. the 700k min wage alternatives we have) doesn't change our fate as a non-contender, so it's wasted money.  But on HOU, who really could use a Duke-level talent to change their 3rd down pass game and upgrade their RZ weapons for Deshaun Watson, it's such a good investment.    

The argument between a 3rd rd rookie contract vs. Duke only applies if the rookie has the same impact Duke will have in the next 3 years.  That's the rub.  For the deal, Duke's likely going to return an impact that very well is a difference-maker on HOU.  And that's before you get to the delay in waiting a year.    

Duke is due 9.25M for 2020 & 2021 combined, with the 2M spent this year.    It's not going to be a top 10 salary, and the gap between 15th-25th is trivial.   If it wasn't on a contender, I'd be saying it's wasted $ - but for a contender, that's a very reasonable cost, it's actually a value spend on $ alone.  Barring injury, I don't think anyone will look at that 2nd contract as bad at all for HOU.   Now, Duke's not going to get a good 3rd contract, that's for sure...but that's not why HOU is acquiring him.   In that respect, the overpay isn't the salary..it's the draft capital.   I can't criticize BoB for taking on the contract, it's only the draft pick price that's high IMO.   

Edited August 8, 2019 by Broncofan

[big_palooka]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

It's not set that the Texans WON'T go this direction. Starting RB Lamar Miller is in the final year of his deal, and I'm pretty certain signing a RB to a 3rd contract isn't in the cards.

So you'll have Duke and (insert RB here) in 2020, splitting the work.

Fair enough. But is Duke worth a 3rd. I don't think so. I don't see the value in trading a 3rd for a COP back.

[AkronsWitness]

4 minutes ago, buno67 said:

Yeah but your not paying that 3rd pick $2m, $4m, and $5m like duke

For comparison, Zach Allen the first 3rd pick this year will make $500k, $700k, $900k, and $1m the next four years. 

Still though it's not like 2, 4 and 5 million is a lot of money for a guy who touches the ball 8-12x per game. That's a pretty easy price for a very good RB2 who can make plays for you.

[MWil23]

The Browns paid $17 million to cut Osweiler for a 2nd round pick. The Texans will be fine slightly overpaying for a very versatile and productive player on a playoff caliber roster.

[tab]

9 minutes ago, buno67 said:

Yeah but your not paying that 3rd pick $2m, $4m, and $5m like duke

For comparison, Zach Allen the first 3rd pick this year will make $500k, $700k, $900k, and $1m the next four years. 

it was a joke

[ET80]

Just now, big_palooka said:

Fair enough. But is Duke worth a 3rd. I don't think so. I don't see the value in trading a 3rd for a COP back.

I'm not disagreeing on that - that's a pretty high price tag. However, I don't think the Texans are going to look at Duke as ONLY a 3rd down/COP guy.

I think Duke will see the majority of targets out of the backfield, with a handful of carries a game. I think Lamar Miller will get the majority of carries, with a handful of targets out of the backfield. If one gets hurt, the other could take on his role with little drop off.

[MWil23]

@ET80 who is your current slot WR? Duke is outstanding there. Also great out of the backfield and solid in pass protection.

[big_palooka]

1 minute ago, ET80 said:

I'm not disagreeing on that - that's a pretty high price tag. However, I don't think the Texans are going to look at Duke as ONLY a 3rd down/COP guy.

I think Duke will see the majority of targets out of the backfield, with a handful of carries a game. I think Lamar Miller will get the majority of carries, with a handful of targets out of the backfield. If one gets hurt, the other could take on his role with little drop off.

That makes sense. I just think they'll look back and wish they'd kept their 3rd round pick in 2020. Houston needs a GM. Cutting Foreman to trade for Duke in a vacuum just looks like bad business. Hopefully it works in their favor.

[buno67]

1 minute ago, big_palooka said:

That makes sense. I just think they'll look back and wish they'd kept their 3rd round pick in 2020. Houston needs a GM. Cutting Foreman to trade for Duke in a vacuum just looks like bad business. Hopefully it works in their favor.