2019 WR Corps

[pacman5252]

10 hours ago, Leader said:

Nelson was a second round pick - first pick - but second round. Dont remember why we lost our first round selection. 

We traded down 6 spots for an extra 4th. Must of liked a few guys.

[Golfman]

1 hour ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

Contracts might be the key to the WR group.

Allison, Davis and Kumerow are in the last year of their contracts (Kumerow and Allison were only one year contracts, anyway). they are 25, 26 and 27 years old, respectively. While all three are close to locks for 2019, it is very likely to change after that.

The salaries are currently small with all of them (Allison earns more, but at less than $2.5m, it's still pretty cheap). It is possible the Packers make all three of these guys a modest offer and see if anyone bites. If they get any takers, that guy or guys are kept. If the cost of keeping them seems too high, they are allowed to walk. Even if all three were not retained (pretty unlikely, imo), Adams, MVS, Shepherd, ESB, Lazard do not look like a horrible top five options. ESB, MVS, Shepherd, are all signed through 2021, while Lazard is on a one year contract.

If pushed into predicting 2020, I'd say Allison leaves for more money elsewhere, while Kumerow and Davis are retained. Shepherd slides into the slot role and takes on some of Davis's punt return duties, while Kumerow and ESB are capable of playing anywhere. Adams/MVS/Shepherd,/Kumerow/ESB looks like a perfectly fine receiver group, with Lazard as WR6, if you have retained him and want to keep more than five receivers.

If all three make the team, I'd like to lock up one of them on a 3-year extension. I think you can still get Davis or Allison at a reasonable amount and Kumerow for a song. 

Which one would you consider locking up because I don't think you want to go into next off season with 3 WRs having moved on. Allison is the only one who has shown anything as a receiver in real games. Not sure you can get him for what I'd like to pay. 

By the way, in this poll, I believe I voted for Kumerow. I'd have to change that vote to Davis at this point. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Golfman

[Donzo]

1 hour ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

Contracts might be the key to the WR group.

Allison, Davis and Kumerow are in the last year of their contracts (Kumerow and Allison were only one year contracts, anyway). they are 25, 26 and 27 years old, respectively. While all three are close to locks for 2019, it is very likely to change after that.

The salaries are currently small with all of them (Allison earns more, but at less than $2.5m, it's still pretty cheap). It is possible the Packers make all three of these guys a modest offer and see if anyone bites. If they get any takers, that guy or guys are kept. If the cost of keeping them seems too high, they are allowed to walk. Even if all three were not retained (pretty unlikely, imo), Adams, MVS, Shepherd, ESB, Lazard do not look like a horrible top five options. ESB, MVS, Shepherd, are all signed through 2021, while Lazard is on a one year contract.

If pushed into predicting 2020, I'd say Allison leaves for more money elsewhere, while Kumerow and Davis are retained. Shepherd slides into the slot role and takes on some of Davis's punt return duties, while Kumerow and ESB are capable of playing anywhere. Adams/MVS/Shepherd,/Kumerow/ESB looks like a perfectly fine receiver group, with Lazard as WR6, if you have retained him and want to keep more than five receivers.

Good points... Allison and Davis will be UFAs, but Kumerow  is RFA, if not an ERFA. He's under team control and will be cheap.

iServices

[Donzo]

6 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

You know what's weird; I think there's a decent chance the story of this season next year will be "where the hell did this Trevor Davis come from?"  He looks like a completely different player on the field.  He's sharp and aggressive in his routes in a way he wasn't always in the past.  He looks for contact as a ball carrier for no reason because it sure as hell doesn't gain many yards.  He seems set on proving he's changed man and now he's done it in practice and in a game.  Given he's still the team's best returner he'll make the roster, and if he keeps practicing like this he'll see the field.  That dude has very real talent if this is the kind of effort he's going to put in.  6'1, 200 and runs a 4.40 with that kind of change of direction ability is a legit WR1.  Not expecting that of him this year, but this is very much him living up to the talent he always had rather than suddenly becoming a new kind of player.

Also think Sheppard is a player.  Superb body control and can catch at full extension with consistency.  Those are not traits you see in a smart, shifty slot player like him very often.  I'm not saying his ceiling is Welker, but his ceiling is totally Welker.  This sucks because I think after those two,  Moore vs Kumerow Moore gets the cut.  Not that I would make that call, but the team seems to love him and frankly he's taken another step this year.  He's clearly worked hard on his release, which was the area of his game most badly in need of improvement.  Cutting a player like Moore for a player who's ceiling is 2016 Jordy Nelson is hard for me to stomach, but at least that guy can still be productive.  I still think Moore is a boost of confidence away from being a legit weapon as a gadget layer for this team.  Those physical gifts are abundant, he just needs to play with some damn confidence.  He had a pretty nice catch in the Raiders grade so at least he came out of the game with a neutral-positive game.  I hope he somehow sticks around because I feel like he's closer than he looks to being in the same tier as MVS.

Excellent analysis... On Moore, it seems like he's in trouble for a roster spot. He's been running 3rd team for a couple weeks now... We'll see what happens on Thursday.

iServices

[festiveonion]

3 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

Contracts might be the key to the WR group.

Allison, Davis and Kumerow are in the last year of their contracts (Kumerow and Allison were only one year contracts, anyway). they are 25, 26 and 27 years old, respectively. While all three are close to locks for 2019, it is very likely to change after that.

The salaries are currently small with all of them (Allison earns more, but at less than $2.5m, it's still pretty cheap). It is possible the Packers make all three of these guys a modest offer and see if anyone bites. If they get any takers, that guy or guys are kept. If the cost of keeping them seems too high, they are allowed to walk. Even if all three were not retained (pretty unlikely, imo), Adams, MVS, Shepherd, ESB, Lazard do not look like a horrible top five options. ESB, MVS, Shepherd, are all signed through 2021, while Lazard is on a one year contract.

If pushed into predicting 2020, I'd say Allison leaves for more money elsewhere, while Kumerow and Davis are retained. Shepherd slides into the slot role and takes on some of Davis's punt return duties, while Kumerow and ESB are capable of playing anywhere. Adams/MVS/Shepherd,/Kumerow/ESB looks like a perfectly fine receiver group, with Lazard as WR6, if you have retained him and want to keep more than five receivers.

Thisish.

 

If Lazard and Shep are retained by 53 cuts Allison and Davis won't be back and I'd bet money on it. Not a UW guy but Kumerow makes the most sense to retain because the market he'd likely warrant would be capped well below the other two. Allison is in for a big season if he stays healthy. He's will should price himself out our range. Expectations are obviously high with Davis but even if he's just a gadget guy who preforms his return duties as well as he has he'll get paid more than we should offer him. This team should be looking to save where it can. A deep position group is a great place to exercise that option.

Why would we use a spot on Shep if he wasn't going to take Davis' role year 2? Find another guy to back him up next season and keep the cycle going. ST guys are supposed to be cheap.

If Gute has proven anything as of yet it's his trepidation towards investing premium capital in the WR position. That's not to say he WON'T draft a guy... just that he hasn't shown interest so far. Make no mistake a 2020 group of Adams, MVS, EQ, Kumerow, Lazard, Shep, Mid-round DP is solid. 

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

Contracts might be the key to the WR group.

Allison, Davis and Kumerow are in the last year of their contracts (Kumerow and Allison were only one year contracts, anyway). they are 25, 26 and 27 years old, respectively. While all three are close to locks for 2019, it is very likely to change after that.

The salaries are currently small with all of them (Allison earns more, but at less than $2.5m, it's still pretty cheap). It is possible the Packers make all three of these guys a modest offer and see if anyone bites. If they get any takers, that guy or guys are kept. If the cost of keeping them seems too high, they are allowed to walk. Even if all three were not retained (pretty unlikely, imo), Adams, MVS, Shepherd, ESB, Lazard do not look like a horrible top five options. ESB, MVS, Shepherd, are all signed through 2021, while Lazard is on a one year contract.

If pushed into predicting 2020, I'd say Allison leaves for more money elsewhere, while Kumerow and Davis are retained. Shepherd slides into the slot role and takes on some of Davis's punt return duties, while Kumerow and ESB are capable of playing anywhere. Adams/MVS/Shepherd,/Kumerow/ESB looks like a perfectly fine receiver group, with Lazard as WR6, if you have retained him and want to keep more than five receivers.

I've mentioned this before, and it could easily be the "solution" to the WR position.  But Kumerow is listed as an ERFA in 2020, which means he's re-signing for peanuts.  And I believe he would be a RFA the year after that, so he's retainable for 2 more seasons easily.  But age isn't in his favor.

[CWood21]

3 hours ago, Golfman said:

If all three make the team, I'd like to lock up one of them on a 3-year extension. I think you can still get Davis or Allison at a reasonable amount and Kumerow for a song. 

Which one would you consider locking up because I don't think you want to go into next off season with 3 WRs having moved on. Allison is the only one who has shown anything as a receiver in real games. Not sure you can get him for what I'd like to pay. 

By the way, in this poll, I believe I voted for Kumerow. I'd have to change that vote to Davis at this point. 

There's no way that Kumerow gets an extension.  He's controlled for peanuts for the next two seasons because he's an ERFA next year as well.  That's roughly 2 years, $1.6M contract for Kumerow.  There's literally no reason for the Packers to even consider extending Jake Kumerow.  Geronimo Allison would be interesting to see what kind of extension he'd be willing to bite on.  He's produced every time he's been put in the lineup, but the Packers probably don't want to pay big money to a guy that is limited physically.  I think @AlexGreen#20 mentioned 3 years, $20M.  If you believe in him, and he's willing to do that then that's probably a deal you're overall pleased with.  Trevor Davis has given me zero reason to even think about an extension right now, so unless you're giving me a super-team friendly deal I'm not interested.  And he's a pending FA, so he might just wait until the end of the year to ink a new deal.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, festiveonion said:

If Lazard and Shep are retained by 53 cuts Allison and Davis won't be back and I'd bet money on it. Not a UW guy but Kumerow makes the most sense to retain because the market he'd likely warrant would be capped well below the other two. Allison is in for a big season if he stays healthy. He's will should price himself out our range. Expectations are obviously high with Davis but even if he's just a gadget guy who preforms his return duties as well as he has he'll get paid more than we should offer him. This team should be looking to save where it can. A deep position group is a great place to exercise that option.

Why would we use a spot on Shep if he wasn't going to take Davis' role year 2? Find another guy to back him up next season and keep the cycle going. ST guys are supposed to be cheap.

If Gute has proven anything as of yet it's his trepidation towards investing premium capital in the WR position. That's not to say he WON'T draft a guy... just that he hasn't shown interest so far. Make no mistake a 2020 group of Adams, MVS, EQ, Kumerow, Lazard, Shep, Mid-round DP is solid. 

I'd hesitate to make the assumption on Gute based on a very small sample size.  Gute's been "in charge" of 2 draft classes since being named GM.  He took 3 WRs on Day 3 in the 2018 draft class, two of which showed significant promise as rookies.  He probably din't feel a huge need to take a WR in the 2019 class because of what MVS and ESB showed as rookies.

[festiveonion]

3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'd hesitate to make the assumption on Gute based on a very small sample size.  Gute's been "in charge" of 2 draft classes since being named GM.  He took 3 WRs on Day 3 in the 2018 draft class, two of which showed significant promise as rookies.  He probably din't feel a huge need to take a WR in the 2019 class because of what MVS and ESB showed as rookies.

Fair, and I addressed that.
He was apparently in on Allan Robinson for a significant figure as well, so that's potentially a point against mine - to play devils advocate.
I'd argue that MVS and EQ have bolstered his opinion that you can find WRs later... if that is actually his mindset. 

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, festiveonion said:

Fair, and I addressed that.
He was apparently in on Allan Robinson for a significant figure as well, so that's potentially a point against mine - to play devils advocate.
I'd argue that MVS and EQ have bolstered his opinion that you can find WRs later... if that is actually his mindset. 

I don't think we're ever going to see Green Bay select a WR in Round 1, as much as I'd love to have CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy in a Packers' uniform.  But taking one on Day 2 does't seem to be out of the question.  Remember, Gute worked under Ted Thompson so there is a natural rub off of philosophy.

[festiveonion]

12 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I don't think we're ever going to see Green Bay select a WR in Round 1, as much as I'd love to have CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy in a Packers' uniform.  But taking one on Day 2 does't seem to be out of the question.  Remember, Gute worked under Ted Thompson so there is a natural rub off of philosophy.

Totally understand and wouldn't be opposed either, should the board fall that way.
At the time of our second 1st rounder I was hoping one of Deebo, Harry, or Butler (lol) would fall to our 2nd. 

Every year we have more information to use to track who's on his board and where. As of now I think Gute's ok throwing day 3 picks around until something sticks. 
I'm sure I'll change my mind once he trades up to 32 for a falling WR prospect. 

Value just has to be pretty exorbitant to select a day 2 guy in 2020 - assuming everyone stays pretty healthy. If guys like MVS and Davis are projected to be as successful in this offense as some of the organization has been eluding to we don't need to invest high picks at WR since you can find the mid/late rounds littered with HWS athletes who haven't put it together yet. 
Regardless, the point was mainly that Davis and Gmo are more than likely not on this team if we elect to keep Shep and Lazard. An idea the board should be entertaining.

[SSG]

On 8/25/2019 at 10:06 PM, Leader said:

Nelson was a second round pick - first pick - but second round. Dont remember why we lost our first round selection. 

We traded back with the Jets.  Added they're high second and a 4th round pick.

[SSG]

On 8/25/2019 at 10:17 PM, CWood21 said:

I mean, a smart GM is going to build a franchise around their best player.  The Packers best player when Ted Thompson took over was Brett Favre, and his WRs were Donald Driver, Javon Walker (coming off an injury-plagued season), Robert Ferguson, and Antonio Chatman.  A year later, the Packers ended up trading Javon Walker for a 2nd round pick.  At that point, Donald Driver was entering his age 30 season.  Since then, the Packers drafted Terrence Murphy, Greg Jennings, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson in the first 96 picks in four years.  Of the four, two became standout WRs, one became a solid WR, and another one was an injury bust.  Batting .500 on Day 2 picks isn't anything to get excited or disappointed about.  3 years after drafting Jordy Nelson in the 2nd round, the Packers took Randall Cobb which was 2 years prior to Greg Jennings leaving.  That was about restocking the cupboard.

IMO we're batting better than .500.  The only outright miss we've had at WR with a top 100 pick since 2005 was Ty Montgomery.  Murphy's career was cut short because of injury before he can be counted as a positive or negative IMO.  Greg Jennings, James Jones Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams were 5 straight home runs that Thompson picked with a top 100 pick in an 8 year span.  Ted Thompson put more high end assets more frequently into WR than any other position on the team IMO.  He made sure that the WR core was always loaded with high end WR talent.  IMO, it was a lot more than just restocking.  

[boratt]

Farewell Javon Moore, we hardly knew ye. 

[Lodestar]

28 minutes ago, SSG said:

IMO we're batting better than .500.  The only outright miss we've had at WR with a top 100 pick since 2005 was Ty Montgomery.  Murphy's career was cut short because of injury before he can be counted as a positive or negative IMO.  Greg Jennings, James Jones Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams were 5 straight home runs that Thompson picked with a top 100 pick in an 8 year span.  Ted Thompson put more high end assets more frequently into WR than any other position on the team IMO.  He made sure that the WR core was always loaded with high end WR talent.  IMO, it was a lot more than just restocking.  

Good post. I went back and looked at TT's drafts and it does appear he put more Day 1-3 picks into WR than anywhere else.

More importantly he had a very high hit rate there. Contrast that to the following:

G/T
Daryn Colledge
Jason Spitz
Bryan Bulaga
Derek Sherrod
Jason Spriggs

DL
Justin Harrell
BJ Raji
Jerel Worthy
Khyri Thornton
Kenny Clark
Montravius Adams

DE/OLB
Clay Matthews
Mike Neal
Nick Perry
Datone Jones
Kyler Fackrell

CB
Pat Lee
Casey Hayward
Damarious Randall
Quinten Rollins
Kevin King

S
Nick Collins
Aaron Rouse
Morgan Burnett
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
Josh Jones