Dak Thread....still debating, beating a dead horse

[Matts4313]

 

[DaBoys]

On 9/25/2019 at 2:19 PM, Matts4313 said:

If he is still playing at a high level  (lets call it 90+ QB rating, 7.0+ ANY/A) in these next 2 games, I am going to expect a lot of crow eating on this site.

Game 1: 70.2 rating, 5.39 AY/A

Game 2: ?

Edited October 2, 2019 by DaBoys

[Matts4313]

16 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

Game 1: 70.2 rating, 5.39 AY/A

Game 2: ?

Lets be intellectually honest. Those numbers are terrible because of a hail mary INT that happened as the time in the game was 0:01. IF you back that out his numbers are:

88 QB rating

7 AY/A

Which is much more in line with his actual play that game. Can we agree that holding a hail mary, that he was hit 2 seconds in while needing 70 yards, distorts his true performance for the actual 59:59 minutes:seconds of game play? 

 

Honestly it could have actually been after the clock hit 0:00

Edited October 2, 2019 by Matts4313

[Matts4313]

28 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Since last year ESPN has been showing us a bit of their new metric of pass rush and pass block win rate. Here's some of the team/player leaders through 4 weeks. At the moment our only access to these stats are through occasional articles, the metric is not in any public database. Hopefully that changes. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27584726/nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-rankings-2019-pbwr-prwr-leaderboard

 

 

Not an exact science, but comparing actual sack rate to pass block win rate may indicate which QBs do a better job at evading sacks?

Rank	Team	PBWR	Rank	Sack Rate	QBSR
1	Cowboys	65.6%	3	2.4%	6.9%
2	Bills	65.3%	17	6.8%	19.6%
3	Chargers	64.5%	21	7.5%	21.1%
4	Packers	64.1%	11	5.5%	15.3%
5	Browns	63.6%	24	8.6%	23.5%
6	Raiders	63.2%	15	6.2%	16.9%
7	Colts	63.1%	6	4.3%	11.8%
8	Texans	60.6%	31	14.2%	36.0%
9	Bears	60.2%	16	6.6%	16.6%
10	Ravens	60.2%	18	7.1%	17.9%
11	Chiefs	59.8%	1	1.9%	4.8%
12	Jets	59.7%	30	13.8%	34.3%
13	Titans	59.5%	32	14.3%	35.3%
14	Steelers	59.3%	5	2.9%	7.1%
15	Saints	59.2%	14	5.9%	14.5%
16	Eagles	58.4%	9	4.7%	11.2%
17	Jaguars	57.9%	22	7.8%	18.4%
18	Buccaneers	57.3%	25	8.6%	20.2%
19	49ers	56.6%	2	2.4%	5.4%
20	Cardinals	55.7%	28	11.8%	26.7%
21	Giants	55.4%	7	4.4%	9.8%
22	Redskins	52.8%	13	5.9%	12.5%
23	Patriots	52.7%	4	2.7%	5.7%
24	Falcons	51.4%	12	5.7%	11.7%
25	Seahawks	51.1%	26	9.0%	18.5%
26	Lions	48.1%	10	5.0%	9.6%
27	Vikings	47.6%	23	8.1%	15.4%
28	Rams	46.8%	8	4.6%	8.7%
29	Bengals	46.6%	27	11.4%	21.4%
30	Dolphins	41.1%	29	13.2%	22.5%
31	Panthers	40.0%	19	7.4%	12.3%
32	Broncos	36.5%	20	7.4%	11.7%

 

How to read final column, QB sack rate: Tom Brady was sacked on only 5.7% of the 47.3% of drop backs his pass protection failed (good). Deshaun Watson was sacked on 36% of the 39.4% of drop backs his pass protection failed (not good).

(So if Brady dropped back 100 times,  his OL failed in pass pro 47.3 times but he was only sacked 5.7 times)

 

A bit of an overly simplistic view, just because a QB was sacked when his OL held up for 3 seconds doesn't mean it's his fault, and just because they held up for less than 2 seconds doesn't mean it's NOT their fault, but it is likely a solid indicator.

Prescott doing well on avoiding sacks; just like the other 40+ games excluding Falcons '17 - firing our OL coach.... when Dak admitted to having the yips. 

Lets see what happens with the OL reshuffle and no Tyron. Historically weve been awful at pass blocking when he is out. 

The Wentz numbers surprise me, he was tremendous last year at avoiding sacks. But he was also the king of throws less than 5 years. 

[Matts4313]

[DaBoys]

Prescott's passer rating has declined steadily each week, with Sunday's 73.2 mark less than half of the perfect score he registered against theGiants to kick off the season. Where the Cowboys QB had been consistently enjoying open throwing lanes and a well-below average pressure rate from Weeks 1 to 3, against the Saints' defense Sunday night he learned what life was like without a functional running game and simple pitch-and-catch completions. Prescott had the fifth-lowest percentage of open attempts (when his targeted pass catcher had 3-plus yards of separation) and the second-lowest percentage of wide open passes (5-plus yards) of the week, according to Next Gen Stats, while having the eighth-highest pressure percentage. So not only were Cam Jordan and Co. regularly getting in Dak's face, but when he could **** back to throw, Marshon Lattimore's crew was sticking hip-to-hip with Dallas' pass catchers. Still, Prescott found a way to tie for the fourth-highest completion percentage above expectation of the week (+7.2%). The fourth-year pro can reignite cooling contract speculation -- and jumpstart his ascension up this list -- by showing out against the Packers' third-ranked pass defense.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001061541/article/qb-index-week-5-carson-wentz-cracks-top-five-tom-brady-slips

Edited October 3, 2019 by DaBoys

[Matts4313]

On 10/2/2019 at 11:42 AM, DaBoys said:

Game 1: 70.2 rating, 5.39 AY/A

Game 2: ?

 

Dinners up. Though I will highly contend that Dak played better than his passer rating reflects. 3/4 of the INTs thrown werent his fault. Conversely, he also got lucky on a few INTs he should have thrown. 

Also, just for the purposes of stats, Zeke yanked 2 TDs from him where the pass got us inside the 3 yard line. 

 

EDIT: ^^ Including Saints game.  

Edited October 7, 2019 by Matts4313

[HDsportsfan]

7 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

 

 

Dinners up. Though I will highly contend that Dak played better than his passer rating reflects. 3/4 of the INTs thrown werent his fault. Conversely, he also got lucky on a few INTs he should have thrown. 

Also, just for the purposes of stats, Zeke yanked 2 TDs from him where the pass got us inside the 3 yard line. 

Shouldn't that be 2/3 rds

He still threw for over 400 yards, which under no circumstances should any QB have to do.

[Matts4313]

Just now, HDsportsfan said:

Shouldn't that be 2/3 rds

He still threw for over 400 yards, which under no circumstances should any QB have to do.

I was including the saints game in that response. 

[HDsportsfan]

Just now, Matts4313 said:

I was including the saints game in that response. 

Gotcha….

I'll contend, just like I did in the Romo days, rarely is it strictly just a QB that will win or lose you a game. This was a complete team effort today.

[canadaluvsdallas]

One thing I'll say about Dak through 5 weeks. No matter how bad we have played he's always put us in position to potentially win the game by the 4th Quarter.

I have no doubt in my mind he would do wonders under someone like Lincoln Riley. Even despite these two losses his mechanics are miles ahead of any of the past years.

I'll happily pay Dak at this point but we need a coaching change to bring out the best in him.

[DaBoys]

15 minutes ago, canadaluvsdallas said:

One thing I'll say about Dak through 5 weeks. No matter how bad we have played he's always put us in position to potentially win the game by the 4th Quarter.

I have no doubt in my mind he would do wonders under someone like Lincoln Riley. Even despite these two losses his mechanics are miles ahead of any of the past years.

I'll happily pay Dak at this point but we need a coaching change to bring out the best in him.

You are only fooling yourself if you think Lincoln Riley can do to the NFL what he does to college football 

[canadaluvsdallas]

30 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

You are only fooling yourself if you think Lincoln Riley can do to the NFL what he does to college football 

Have we seen him in the NFL yet? Until then who knows?

The most impressive thing about Riley is his adaptability to different opponents with different players at his disposal. I can't see how that doesn't translate into the NFL. 

Edited October 7, 2019 by canadaluvsdallas

[Matts4313]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sportsinfo_sis/status/1181582966474100740?s=21

[5x10]

He should have signed week 3

2 tds, 4 ints since then 

cowboys might have lucked out waiting