Denver trades WR Sanders to 49ers

[J-ALL-DAY]

44 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Less to roll into next season....

So lessen the chances of winning this season when the team is clearly a contender so we can have more cap next year? This isn't a crazy amount of cap hit or anything, especially if Sanders does as good as most think he will. 

[Chrissooner49er]

2 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

So lessen the chances of winning this season when the team is clearly a contender so we can have more cap next year? This isn't a crazy amount of cap hit or anything, especially if Sanders does as good as most think he will. 

The operative word being "if".....

We shall see.

The guy is 32, contract expires this year, $10+ mil on it...and gave up picks for him.

He is still productive and knows the offense. Hope that is enough.

Edited October 23, 2019 by Chrissooner49er

[Forge]

11 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

we going for it NOW, and can still be fine for next.... BELIEVE

As much as a draft-nut as I have been, to hell with it. We just end up with day 2 meh like Samuel and Hurd. 

We won't need much to add to our 2020 season, and Free Agency is a real thing to add some decent depth. 

 

 

Go for the gold now. We are 6-0, and have only 4 road games to finish out. Then, we battle NO, Minny, GB for NFC run of ring #6.

Sanders is far better than anything we got at WR. Much of the draft is hyped up circle j

Weirdly, I am not all that concerned about the draft. In the 20's is when it gets pretty easy to trade down. Look at last year. From pick 20 on, these were the picks that were traded:

20 (doesn't really count as the team picking #20 moved up, not down, but I'm including it anyway)

21. Compensation: #1 (pick 30) + 2 current year 4's. 

22 - compensation: #1 (pick 25) + current year 4 + current year 6

26 - Compensation: current year 2nd (#46) + future 2 

30 - Compensation: Current year 2 + current year 4 + current year 5

31 (plus 6th rounder) - Compensation: #45 + #79. 

I don't have a ton of interest in that washington trade for #26, but all of the other ones are fine right now. So if we really want to replenish picks, we will have opportunity if we are picking in the 20's. Lots of movement there. 

[Forge]

And that is before considering a possible tag and trade of AA

[y2lamanaki]

Who is not a fan of our 2019 roster? Anybody think this isn't a playoff-caliber squad with a legitimate chance at contending? I don't expect so, but if you fall into that category you can exit this exercise. This won't be of help to you, but I imagine it's few of you.

Let's all pretend for a moment that the season is over, and the 49ers only opt to bring back their RFA's and ERFA's currently on the roster and let all of their UFA's currently on the roster leave. That means the team keeps Breida, Moseley, Mullens, Wilson, Bourne, Dwelley, and Brunskill around on cheap deals, but decides they need to lose everyone else. I don't believe anyone would mind keeping these depth pieces around, even if it only means taking them into camp.

That means the team needs to replace these guys currently on the roster, in order of importance:

Arik Armstead, Jimmie Ward, Emmanuel Sanders, Ronald Blair, Sheldon Day, Levine Toilolo, Ben Garland, Dontae Johnson, Sam Young, and Jordan Matthews. 

That's it. 10 players. And I would bet a lot of money that the list will narrow by one when Kyle Nelson is added to the roster, and my money is on Jordan Matthews (Sanders took Sanborn's spot). So let's be real and scratch Matthews off the list. Now we're down to 9.

(And before @J-ALL-DAY @'s me over this list, while Celek, Verrett, and Shonn Coleman are all technically UFAs, they are not factored in here because they are not currently on the 53-man roster, and if they were they would merely take the place of three of the above players, namely Toilolo, Johnson, and Young).

So since you made it this far, you agree that we currently have a great roster, and to continue to have a great roster, we need to replace talent that leaves.

Currently not on the roster, but players who likely could have made the 53-man squad if not for injury or a packed position group are Trent Taylor, Jalen Hurd, Kentavius Street, and practice squad member, Kevin Givens. There should be no reason anyone would be unhappy about any of those four being on the roster, and unless someone signs Givens to their 53, all will be back next year to battle for a roster spot. All 4 might even make the team. But let's play it conservative. 

We'll say one of Street/Givens replaces Sheldon Day. And one of Taylor/Hurd replaces Sanders (both receivers will make the team, I imagine, but we're only going to fill one roster spot).

So now we are down to 7 players we need to replace. We can break them down into three categories. Starters (Armstead and Ward), Important Rotation Players (Blair and Toilolo), and Mainly Backups/Special Teams Players (Garland, Johnson and Young).

Let's start easy - the last group. We have 2 5th round picks (every fifth round pick in the Shanahan/Lynch era has been solid and has made the team), 1 6th, 2 7ths, and as many UDFAs as we'd like to bring in cheap talent. And they would all be cheaper than three veteran salaries. We'll assume we only hit on three of the many.

Who is not convinced that we can replace Ben Garland, Sam Young, and Dontae Johnson with five draft picks/a variety of UDFAs? Any takers? If you think we would have trouble, you may leave this exercise. I would hope this applies to very few of you.

So now we are down to four players who need to be replaced. Armstead, Ward, Blair, and Toilolo.

So let's look at Toilolo first. Anyone think we'll have trouble finding a replacement for Toilolo with a similarly cheap veteran free agent deal? Or maybe swap Toilolo and Garland, replace Toilolo with one of the late picks and Garland in free agency (precisely how we got both in the first place)? Anyone think this is problematic? If so, you may exit this exercise. 

I would hope I didn't lose many of you yet, because we could realistically handle all of the above and change the team we've seen over the first six games in no meaningful way. That leaves us with three players:

Armstead, Ward, and Blair. Two starters, one important rotational piece. Our leftover resources include a late first round pick, the franchise tag, any sort of meaningful free agent activity (including trying to re-sign any of the 3) and whatever we could obtain via trade of a player or a 2021 pick. 

Let's start with Ward and Armstead. Ward has played very well since getting healthy. We know that is his main problem. He's missed three games already this year, and we know that Moore stepped in well for him in his first NFL season at safety. We know Ward upgraded the team when he entered, but we also might expect Moore to progress as well. Armstead has been incredible and would be much tougher to fully replace, but we do have a former 3rd overall pick who could play defensive end on base downs and rush the passer from the inside on passing downs. Would it be the same as Armstead? Probably not. Would it be reasonable to count on Solomon Thomas to be a suitable starter and not have a giant downgrade to the team? Probably. Which means we don't necessarily need multiple starters, we might need two rotational players and a Special Teams player (which is all Tarvarius Moore is with Ward healthy, and is all a presumptive backup to Moore would be). 

Let's split the difference and say one of Moore/Thomas can replace their counterpart in the starting lineup but both cannot. So we really need one starter, and two rotational players. 

So now let's look at our first round pick. In each of the last four drafts, a team at the bottom of the first round has traded back with a team in the 2nd and picked up at least a 4th. That could be an option. We could take two role players with those two picks and franchise Armstead. Suddenly, problem averted. 

We could tag Armstead, trade him for at least a 3rd (he would likely fetch more, but let's stay conservative), pick up a starter with the 1st, a roleplayer with the 3rd from the Armstead trade, and then re-sign Ward or Blair rather than letting them walk. Or we could tag and trade Armstead, trade back from the first, and replace all three with 2nd, 3rd, and 4th picks.

Or...maybe we sign more than just a singular player in free agency (to replace Toilolo or Garner) and pick up a starter on a 1-year deal for the price we paid for Ward or Armstead this year, because those types of players are always available. 

And in any of the above scenarios, we basically have the same team with very few veteran players we need to worry about in terms of regression. None of the above scenarios results in a major use of cap space that prevents us from extending one of Kittle/Buckner in 2020 and simply franchising the other in 2021 while working on an extension. And none of the above scenarios would stop us from also thinking about extensions for some of the other 2021 UFAs (Witherspoon, Sherman, Thomas, Jones) we may wish to keep around. 

In other words, who cares about the late 3rd and a decrease of 10-15 spots we gave up to greatly improve our chance at a Super Bowl this year? We are still in fine shape for the future even by the most conservative of estimates. 

[oldman9er]

Somewhere, a very heavy mic just dropped and shattered a glass soap box. 

( even if done so with a bit of a sharp edge to it )

[Justone2]

4 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Who is not a fan of our 2019 roster? Anybody think this isn't a playoff-caliber squad with a legitimate chance at contending? I don't expect so, but if you fall into that category you can exit this exercise. This won't be of help to you, but I imagine it's few of you.

Let's all pretend for a moment that the season is over, and the 49ers only opt to bring back their RFA's and ERFA's currently on the roster and let all of their UFA's currently on the roster leave. That means the team keeps Breida, Moseley, Mullens, Wilson, Bourne, Dwelley, and Brunskill around on cheap deals, but decides they need to lose everyone else. I don't believe anyone would mind keeping these depth pieces around, even if it only means taking them into camp.

That means the team needs to replace these guys currently on the roster, in order of importance:

Arik Armstead, Jimmie Ward, Emmanuel Sanders, Ronald Blair, Sheldon Day, Levine Toilolo, Ben Garland, Dontae Johnson, Sam Young, and Jordan Matthews. 

That's it. 10 players. And I would bet a lot of money that the list will narrow by one when Kyle Nelson is added to the roster, and my money is on Jordan Matthews (Sanders took Sanborn's spot). So let's be real and scratch Matthews off the list. Now we're down to 9.

(And before @J-ALL-DAY @'s me over this list, while Celek, Verrett, and Shonn Coleman are all technically UFAs, they are not factored in here because they are not currently on the 53-man roster, and if they were they would merely take the place of three of the above players, namely Toilolo, Johnson, and Young).

So since you made it this far, you agree that we currently have a great roster, and to continue to have a great roster, we need to replace talent that leaves.

Currently not on the roster, but players who likely could have made the 53-man squad if not for injury or a packed position group are Trent Taylor, Jalen Hurd, Kentavius Street, and practice squad member, Kevin Givens. There should be no reason anyone would be unhappy about any of those four being on the roster, and unless someone signs Givens to their 53, all will be back next year to battle for a roster spot. All 4 might even make the team. But let's play it conservative. 

We'll say one of Street/Givens replaces Sheldon Day. And one of Taylor/Hurd replaces Sanders (both receivers will make the team, I imagine, but we're only going to fill one roster spot).

So now we are down to 7 players we need to replace. We can break them down into three categories. Starters (Armstead and Ward), Important Rotation Players (Blair and Toilolo), and Mainly Backups/Special Teams Players (Garland, Johnson and Young).

Let's start easy - the last group. We have 2 5th round picks (every fifth round pick in the Shanahan/Lynch era has been solid and has made the team), 1 6th, 2 7ths, and as many UDFAs as we'd like to bring in cheap talent. And they would all be cheaper than three veteran salaries. We'll assume we only hit on three of the many.

Who is not convinced that we can replace Ben Garland, Sam Young, and Dontae Johnson with five draft picks/a variety of UDFAs? Any takers? If you think we would have trouble, you may leave this exercise. I would hope this applies to very few of you.

So now we are down to four players who need to be replaced. Armstead, Ward, Blair, and Toilolo.

So let's look at Toilolo first. Anyone think we'll have trouble finding a replacement for Toilolo with a similarly cheap veteran free agent deal? Or maybe swap Toilolo and Garland, replace Toilolo with one of the late picks and Garland in free agency (precisely how we got both in the first place)? Anyone think this is problematic? If so, you may exit this exercise. 

I would hope I didn't lose many of you yet, because we could realistically handle all of the above and change the team we've seen over the first six games in no meaningful way. That leaves us with three players:

Armstead, Ward, and Blair. Two starters, one important rotational piece. Our leftover resources include a late first round pick, the franchise tag, any sort of meaningful free agent activity (including trying to re-sign any of the 3) and whatever we could obtain via trade of a player or a 2021 pick. 

Let's start with Ward and Armstead. Ward has played very well since getting healthy. We know that is his main problem. He's missed three games already this year, and we know that Moore stepped in well for him in his first NFL season at safety. We know Ward upgraded the team when he entered, but we also might expect Moore to progress as well. Armstead has been incredible and would be much tougher to fully replace, but we do have a former 3rd overall pick who could play defensive end on base downs and rush the passer from the inside on passing downs. Would it be the same as Armstead? Probably not. Would it be reasonable to count on Solomon Thomas to be a suitable starter and not have a giant downgrade to the team? Probably. Which means we don't necessarily need multiple starters, we might need two rotational players and a Special Teams player (which is all Tarvarius Moore is with Ward healthy, and is all a presumptive backup to Moore would be). 

Let's split the difference and say one of Moore/Thomas can replace their counterpart in the starting lineup but both cannot. So we really need one starter, and two rotational players. 

So now let's look at our first round pick. In each of the last four drafts, a team at the bottom of the first round has traded back with a team in the 2nd and picked up at least a 4th. That could be an option. We could take two role players with those two picks and franchise Armstead. Suddenly, problem averted. 

We could tag Armstead, trade him for at least a 3rd (he would likely fetch more, but let's stay conservative), pick up a starter with the 1st, a roleplayer with the 3rd from the Armstead trade, and then re-sign Ward or Blair rather than letting them walk. Or we could tag and trade Armstead, trade back from the first, and replace all three with 2nd, 3rd, and 4th picks.

Or...maybe we sign more than just a singular player in free agency (to replace Toilolo or Garner) and pick up a starter on a 1-year deal for the price we paid for Ward or Armstead this year, because those types of players are always available. 

And in any of the above scenarios, we basically have the same team with very few veteran players we need to worry about in terms of regression. None of the above scenarios results in a major use of cap space that prevents us from extending one of Kittle/Buckner in 2020 and simply franchising the other in 2021 while working on an extension. And none of the above scenarios would stop us from also thinking about extensions for some of the other 2021 UFAs (Witherspoon, Sherman, Thomas, Jones) we may wish to keep around. 

In other words, who cares about the late 3rd and a decrease of 10-15 spots we gave up to greatly improve our chance at a Super Bowl this year? We are still in fine shape for the future even by the most conservative of estimates. 

Couldn't agree more. I think though that keeping Blair and Ward wouldn't be all that big a problem and i think can be more valuable to the team than having Armstead. Besides that the only area i think we could get immediate upgrades on what we have is at WR(lot of young guys that need to take that next step) and  interior OL and maybe you can argue SAM but that really ain't a position worth spending first or second day pick on. For O-line i think we can get a guy for our scheme later in the draft.

[y2lamanaki]

3 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

Somewhere, a very heavy mic just dropped and shattered a glass soap box. 

( even if done so with a bit of a sharp edge to it )

That last part concerns me as it is not in any way intended. My text seems to suggest this from time to time, but anyone who has listened to the podcast should just infer my general tone there at all times. 

[NinerNation21]

 

 

 

 

16 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Y2's long but excellent post

I think your post makes logical sense and aligns with my thoughts for the offseason. I see this upcoming offseason as a means to maintain what we currently have and upgrade the fringes where it makes sense. I think the team needs to be financially prudent because of what is looming in the near future: 2021 free agents. This list is a bit overwhelming...

• George Kittle
• DeForest Buckner
• Ahkello Witherspoon
• Soloman Thomas
• Jaquiski Tartt
• Tevin Coleman
• K'Waun Williams
• Trent Taylor
• Kyle Juszczyk
• Richard Sherman
• D.J. Jones
• C.J. Beathard

We're not going to be able to re-sign all of these guys and some are going to be sent off anyways, but there are some core stars on this list that will need some sizable contracts. 

 

[Forge]

13 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

That last part concerns me as it is not in any way intended. My text seems to suggest this from time to time, but anyone who has listened to the podcast should just infer my general tone there at all times. 

You always sound super angry to me on the podcast. You can't hide that acerbic attitude behind the laughter, sir!

[Chrissooner49er]

25 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Who is not a fan of our 2019 roster? Anybody think this isn't a playoff-caliber squad with a legitimate chance at contending? I don't expect so, but if you fall into that category you can exit this exercise. This won't be of help to you, but I imagine it's few of you.

So since you made it this far, you agree that we currently have a great roster, and to continue to have a great roster, we need to replace talent that leaves.

 

 

If so, you may exit this exercise. 

I would hope I didn't lose many of you yet, because we could realistically handle all of the above and change the team we've seen over the first six games in no meaningful way.

 

 

So now let's look at our first round pick. In each of the last four drafts, a team at the bottom of the first round has traded back with a team in the 2nd and picked up at least a 4th. That could be an option. We could take two role players with those two picks and franchise Armstead. Suddenly, problem averted. 

We could tag Armstead, trade him for at least a 3rd (he would likely fetch more, but let's stay conservative), pick up a starter with the 1st, a roleplayer with the 3rd from the Armstead trade, and then re-sign Ward or Blair rather than letting them walk. Or we could tag and trade Armstead, trade back from the first, and replace all three with 2nd, 3rd, and 4th picks.

 

In other words, who cares about the late 3rd and a decrease of 10-15 spots we gave up to greatly improve our chance at a Super Bowl this year? We are still in fine shape for the future even by the most conservative of estimates. 

If the bolded happens, then I have very little issue with the trade. Especially if we won the Super Bowl. Operative word being "IF". However, if we lose the Super Bowl and recoup no picks at all, I will be very displeased and disappointed (not that I  matter to the team, really). 

And to @oldman9er point on the sharpness...all of the underlined is rather abrupt and dismissive. Just FYI. 

[y2lamanaki]

17 minutes ago, Forge said:

You always sound super angry to me on the podcast. You can't hide that acerbic attitude behind the laughter, sir!

The exclamation point makes me feel like you are joking, but I seriously have a problem with a deadpan delivery that fools my wife from time to time, so I am legitimately concerned that you might actually be at least a little serious. 

[oldman9er]

Salarian voice infused.

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

The exclamation point makes me feel like you are joking, but I seriously have a problem with a deadpan delivery that fools my wife from time to time, so I am legitimately concerned that you might actually be at least a little serious. 

lol don't worry, was joking. 

[y2lamanaki]

20 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

If the bolded happens, then I have very little issue with the trade. Especially if we won the Super Bowl. Operative word being "IF". However, if we lose the Super Bowl and recoup no picks at all, I will be very displeased and disappointed (not that I  matter to the team, really). 

And to @oldman9er point on the sharpness...all of the underlined is rather abrupt and dismissive. Just FYI. 

I appreciate that. It's helpful. Not to appear defensive (not my intent, just attempting to explain the initial post), but it WAS an exercise, and I was giving anyone reading legitimate exit points from a post I knew was lengthy when I was no longer going to convince them with anything that followed.

And the last paragraph was supposed to inspire hope =(