How do we fix the QB in 2020

[beardown3231]

44 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

An important question regarding drafting another QB is how many teams ahead of you are going to get a QB? I'm not sure this draft has an obvious QB1 any more, and there are a handful of guys that could go first round; Burrow, Tua(?), Herbert, Eason, Fromm, Hurts are all at least in a first round discussion. 

Bengals, Dolphins seem like locks to take a QB

Buccaneers, Colts, seem likely

Redskins, Chargers, Titans, Saints, Patriots seem possible 

At the very least I'd say 3 teams ahead of are trying to get a QB

If we assume the Bears are drafting somewhere in the 40s with both picks,  how likely is it that a QB that can start in year 1 or 2 will be there? The value of their 2 second-round picks is equal to about the 20th pick in the first round assuming current standings, so is that worth it to get their guy (again?)

Ugh, this is like doing your taxes and realizing you made too much money but also made it the wrong way to deduct anything. 

 

I would love to have a flashy new QB, but I think it might be more likely that we see some boring or half dead veteran trotted out there, who plays well enough to get the Bears offense to average, and they get 8-8 or something and miss out on the playoffs but also a good 2021 draft pick. 

 

 

I brought this up a few weeks ago and I agree, except I think you have too many teams.

I doubt Washington takes a QB. To get Haskins, they traded up (IIRC). Even if they didn't, they still used a 1 on him. I also don't think Indy will. They just gave Brissett a lot of money and he's been impressive. If anything, I think WSH and IND would take one in the later rounds, not round 1 or 2.

[Epyon]

Here's the problem as i see it.....

 

We'd need to find a way to trade into the top 10 to get a QB worth taking, and likely the top 5.

TUA is the only one who might drop further, but it would be on the back of his hip injury being a concern (which would make it a massive gamble for us too)

The SMART play is trying to pry Foles away, then using those twin 2nd rounders on some combination of TE and OL.  Burrow seems like the QB to go after this year with Tua down and out, and would be a good fit, I just don't see any way we can trade up to get him without doing something really drastic like moving Mack, and then even if we did somehow find a way to do that, we then wouldn't have the ammo to revamp the offensive line.  That being said, I'm also not super sold on Foles being "the guy"  as much as a shot at winning now via not screwing it up for the defense/placeholder until we can afford to draft someone.

I think the absolute best case scenarios for our team longer term would be:

1. Trading up for Burrow, going hard on OL in FA, and hitting on a mid round TE...

2. Tua dropping to us, but his hip passing medicals, then still having the ammo to fix TE/OL.....

I rank the Burrow scenario higher right now because he's already running a pro style offense and making reads... and I question the longevity of Tua health wise.  I need to watch way more film on all the QBs but Herbert, Fromm, Eason, and Hurts aren't quite doing it for me right now.

I'm not sure Nagy/Pace have enough time left on their clocks to be allowed to take another 2-3 year plan type QB, however, (particularly when it would involve once again mortgaging the future) and I expect them to feel forced to go very hard after a vet like Foles if he is allowed to hit the market.

[Heinz D.]

1 hour ago, Epyon said:

Here's the problem as i see it.....

 

We'd need to find a way to trade into the top 10 to get a QB worth taking, and likely the top 5.

TUA is the only one who might drop further, but it would be on the back of his hip injury being a concern (which would make it a massive gamble for us too)

The SMART play is trying to pry Foles away, then using those twin 2nd rounders on some combination of TE and OL.  Burrow seems like the QB to go after this year with Tua down and out, and would be a good fit, I just don't see any way we can trade up to get him without doing something really drastic like moving Mack, and then even if we did somehow find a way to do that, we then wouldn't have the ammo to revamp the offensive line.  That being said, I'm also not super sold on Foles being "the guy"  as much as a shot at winning now via not screwing it up for the defense/placeholder until we can afford to draft someone.

I think the absolute best case scenarios for our team longer term would be:

1. Trading up for Burrow, going hard on OL in FA, and hitting on a mid round TE...

2. Tua dropping to us, but his hip passing medicals, then still having the ammo to fix TE/OL.....

I rank the Burrow scenario higher right now because he's already running a pro style offense and making reads... and I question the longevity of Tua health wise.  I need to watch way more film on all the QBs but Herbert, Fromm, Eason, and Hurts aren't quite doing it for me right now.

I'm not sure Nagy/Pace have enough time left on their clocks to be allowed to take another 2-3 year plan type QB, however, (particularly when it would involve once again mortgaging the future) and I expect them to feel forced to go very hard after a vet like Foles if he is allowed to hit the market.

The Tua injury makes Burrow the clear #1 QB, I think. Herbert will stick at #2, which is odd, but likely how it'll shake out. If Tua passes medical, he's still a first round pick, and we're re-thinking the scenario I just spun. The Dolphins clearly love him so much they could well draft him high, even if he has to sit for a long time. 

Eason, unfortunately, has hit a rough patch, and I doubt he declares. Which sucks as he has tons of potential. Fromm is more of a "game manager" QB, and while he's quite good at that, don't think he meshes with what Nagy wants to do. That being said, don't know why Herbert and Hurts aren't doing it for you right now. I haven't looked in on Love lately, although my guess is nothing has dampened that crazy potential. Stanley is also a real contender. That kid can make some crazy throws. 

[WindyCity]

"Matt Nagy is going to step to the podium at the end of the season and say that Mitchell Trubisky is our guy. I'm telling you it's going to happen. They are not going to go in a say we are evaluating the position. I'm warning you Bears fans." -

@richeisen

on The Rich Eisen Show

 

FIRE EVERYONE

[beardown3231]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

"Matt Nagy is going to step to the podium at the end of the season and say that Mitchell Trubisky is our guy. I'm telling you it's going to happen. They are not going to go in a say we are evaluating the position. I'm warning you Bears fans." -

@richeisen

on The Rich Eisen Show

 

FIRE EVERYONE

Well if Rich Eisen says it then it must be 100% true

[WindyCity]

19 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Well if Rich Eisen says it then it must be 100% true

This is my #1 fear. It has been super rare for GMs to move on from high 1st round bust QBs. They hang on for dear life hoping that they get better.

I am terrified that Pace is going to double down on Mitch and give him another year, or even worse pick up his option.

He and Pace are tied together and I think it will be hard for him to give up on him.

[dll2000]

3 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

This is my #1 fear. It has been super rare for GMs to move on from high 1st round bust QBs. They hang on for dear life hoping that they get better.

I am terrified that Pace is going to double down on Mitch and give him another year, or even worse pick up his option.

He and Pace are tied together and I think it will be hard for him to give up on him.

Arizona did.  Right though it is super rare.  

[dll2000]

Just now, dll2000 said:

Arizona did.  Right though it is super rare.  

Arizona had number one pick too.  Changes things when you can pick from anyone.

 

[WindyCity]

3 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Arizona had number one pick too.  Changes things when you can pick from anyone.

 

Yeah, that seems to be the outlier because if circumstance.

GMs seem to either ride the bust too long [Bortles, Winston, Mariota] or they get fired.

 

I would prefer to fire Pace then ride the bust too long and for too much money.

[beardown3231]

23 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

This is my #1 fear. It has been super rare for GMs to move on from high 1st round bust QBs. They hang on for dear life hoping that they get better.

I am terrified that Pace is going to double down on Mitch and give him another year, or even worse pick up his option.

He and Pace are tied together and I think it will be hard for him to give up on him.

Then we go back to what I said on Monday that you liked: they go 1-15 next year, fire everyone & get Lawrence or Fields.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

1 hour ago, beardown3231 said:

Then we go back to what I said on Monday that you liked: they go 1-15 next year, fire everyone & get Lawrence or Fields.

I think you can make a very good case that that scenario is the method by which the Bears get good fastest.  Allow me to throw up in my mouth a little and then I will elaborate:

...

...

 

OK, gross.  All of this is gross. But outside of the really unlikely chance that Mitch turns it around this year and looks good for some reason in every single game, the Bear's are really likely-in my opinion-to  do two things: keep Nagy, Pace and Trubisky, and also bring in QB competition in the form of a veteran.  They can use their 2nd rd picks to address glaring needs at TE, and likely either OL or S. In that scenario, I think either Marioleton or whoever the **** it is probably wins the job in TC, then either through injury or bad play we trot out Trubisky again, and lurch to a middling record. The defense will still be good enough to make any game winnable, but the offense even slightly improved is giong to still be hamstrung by a fatal mismatch between QB ability and scheme. 

 

If they ride-or-die with Mitch at least he'll either a) turn it around (hahaha, ha, ha, sob...) or more likely totally implode and the team quits and they are in the first couple picks. At that point, new coach, new GM, new QB, new Camry.  

 

 

[WindyCity]

27 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

I think you can make a very good case that that scenario is the method by which the Bears get good fastest.  Allow me to throw up in my mouth a little and then I will elaborate:

...

...

 

OK, gross.  All of this is gross. But outside of the really unlikely chance that Mitch turns it around this year and looks good for some reason in every single game, the Bear's are really likely-in my opinion-to  do two things: keep Nagy, Pace and Trubisky, and also bring in QB competition in the form of a veteran.  They can use their 2nd rd picks to address glaring needs at TE, and likely either OL or S. In that scenario, I think either Marioleton or whoever the **** it is probably wins the job in TC, then either through injury or bad play we trot out Trubisky again, and lurch to a middling record. The defense will still be good enough to make any game winnable, but the offense even slightly improved is giong to still be hamstrung by a fatal mismatch between QB ability and scheme. 

 

If they ride-or-die with Mitch at least he'll either a) turn it around (hahaha, ha, ha, sob...) or more likely totally implode and the team quits and they are in the first couple picks. At that point, new coach, new GM, new QB, new Camry.  

 

 

The quickest way for them to be good is for Mitch to magically rise like a Phoenix,

 

[Heinz D.]

5 hours ago, WindyCity said:

This is my #1 fear. It has been super rare for GMs to move on from high 1st round bust QBs. They hang on for dear life hoping that they get better.

I am terrified that Pace is going to double down on Mitch and give him another year, or even worse pick up his option.

He and Pace are tied together and I think it will be hard for him to give up on him.

If it's that difficult, then Pace DOES have to go.

5 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I would prefer to fire Pace then ride the bust too long and for too much money.

Unless there is significant improvement from Trubisky in the next few games (if he even plays), then upper management is torpedoing the franchise if they let Pace do that.

I'm not even convinced Pace would go that route, however. 

[topwop1]

9 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Then we go back to what I said on Monday that you liked: they go 1-15 next year, fire everyone & get Lawrence or Fields.

Exactly. Pace made his bed with Mitch and he is likely going to go down fighting with him.

If Mitch fails then everyone is gone and the franchise starts over with a new GM  staff and what should be a high pick in 2021.

Though if they hope to get the best out of Mitch in 2020 then they need to bring in someone half decent who will be a good mentor and breathe down his neck to force him to be the best player he can be. 

As I've maintained this whole time Alex Smith would be the best option as the backup next year provided he doesn't cost a whole lot and is recovered.

 

[WindyCity]

40 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

Exactly. Pace made his bed with Mitch and he is likely going to go down fighting with him.

If Mitch fails then everyone is gone and the franchise starts over with a new GM  staff and what should be a high pick in 2021.

Though if they hope to get the best out of Mitch in 2020 then they need to bring in someone half decent who will be a good mentor and breathe down his neck to force him to be the best player he can be. 

As I've maintained this whole time Alex Smith would be the best option as the backup next year provided he doesn't cost a whole lot and is recovered.

 

I am not sure Pace can afford to go down swinging with Trubisky.

There is a good chance that because of Trubiksy he never gets a GM job again.

His best bet will be to hold onto this job by any means neccassery.