Weekly Bets Thread

[BobbyPhil1781]

FD Finally released the WR 750, 1000, 1250 etc receiving yard bets.

Where do y'all see good odds at?

For + money in 750, I really like:

Jeudy +105

Shakir + 110

Jamo +145

1000:

Cupp +120 (health is the biggest factor for me)

Hard to find value elsewhere for me.

1250:

Garrett Wilson +145

London +280 (think Cousins will give him enough to really break out)

 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

7 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

FD Finally released the WR 750, 1000, 1250 etc receiving yard bets.

Where do y'all see good odds at?

For + money in 750, I really like:

Jeudy +105

Shakir + 110

Jamo +145

1000:

Cupp +120 (health is the biggest factor for me)

Hard to find value elsewhere for me.

1250:

Garrett Wilson +145

London +280 (think Cousins will give him enough to really break out)

 

health isnt the biggest factor, its the only factor imo. As long as he and Stafford are healthy he will get 1000 in the first 14 games

[Broncofan]

On 8/1/2024 at 1:29 PM, BobbyPhil1781 said:

FD Finally released the WR 750, 1000, 1250 etc receiving yard bets.

Where do y'all see good odds at?

For + money in 750, I really like:

Jeudy +105

Shakir + 110

Jamo +145

1000:

Kupp +120 (health is the biggest factor for me)

Hard to find value elsewhere for me.

1250:

Garrett Wilson +145

London +280 (think Cousins will give him enough to really break out)

 

DK has the props out too (they’ve been out for a while), it's that time of year.

One note of caution - unders are now winning 60+ percent of the time, because of said injury risk.   It's a huge reason why these #'s look appealing.  On the surface, if these guys play 15+ full games, there's no reason why they won't smash those #'s.   But the injury risk is very much a factor, even before you get to players like Jeudy & Kupp, who are coming off injuries last year, and in Kupp's case, that age threshold where sometimes we see skills start to slide.

It's definitely also why I tend to shy away from anything over 1000+ yards, unless it's at significant plus money.   London's not bad at that price, just keep in mind with injury risk baked in, it's a lot closer to correct than we initially think.

Having said that, I love me some alt lines (and main lines) for guys who are going to be target hogs, so on DK I took the following:

Calvin Ridley O875.5 rec yds 2U / 1000+ rec yds +200 1U DK  - with Nuk Hopkins injury, that number is just so low.

Diontae Johnson O825.5 rec yds 2U / 1000+ rec yds +240 1U DK - with an actual functional OL and HC/OC in CAR who's not a horror show, but a team that's likely still trailing,  as long as we get 13-14 full games from Diontae, I think we'll see him get to 1K.   I believe he's going to be the #1 guy there (not Thielen).   Before ppl say "it's Bryce Young" - as a 2nd year guy, there's plenty of room for improvement, and more importantly, outside of NYJ last year, there wasn't a worse QB combination to limit WR production than PIT's (Pickett was absolutely absymal).    His TD equity may not have gone up, but the yardage should be there.

Jerry Jeudy O700.5 rec yds +105 2U DK - the injury history is why I can't back more than 700 (750 is OK too).  Clear #2 guy in CLE, and if Cooper misses time his number goes way up.  Still, his injury risk is why I can't commit to the same ceiling as the other guys.

Khalil Shakir 750+ rec yds +110 2U FD - he's -120 on DK, and like Bobby, I do believe he's the #1 WR (although Kincaid might be the top target) for BUF this year.   

Trey McBride 750+ rec yds +100 2U / 1000+ rec yds +400 1U DK - let's be clear - Zach Ertz was the starter for the first 7 weeks, McBride had a 30-55 percent snap count and much lower target share then - and still ended up with 825+ yards in 2023.    He was the TE1 from Week 8 onwards in terms of target share / targets, and has insane YAC ability.    Yes, Marvin Harrison Jr is legit, but this is a team that at worst will have him as the #2 target, and there's a very real chance they are like the Kelce / Tyreek KC 1-2 hogs (not saying they're the same players, saying the pecking order).  1000+ yards is a holy grail for TE's, but at +400 it's worth a shot.     There are no FD odds other than 750+, this is literally one of the most egregious lines I see posted this offseason.

As far as TD props go, there's only one I'm taking now - Trey McBride 5+ TD +110 2U DK & 7+ TD's +500 1U - this is where having both Kyler Murray the whole season and fully recovered from ACL surgery, and having Harrison Jr. should help McBride in the RZ.   He was absolutely blanketed with double or even triple coverage in the 2H of last year near the RZ.   

I was super tempted to take the yardage prop on Rashid Shaheed, and I'm absolutely gutted Juwan Johnson got hurt, because I'm a big believer that NO upgraded their O by canning Pete Carmichael and bringing in Klint Kubiak - Kubiak is decent, and Carmichael footballl-wise is a pox on humanity.   Given they posted Shaheed at 750+, it's OK, but not great value.    I would have hammered the Juwan TD props, but with his Jones fracture, there are no props, and we need to see that he's OK before diving back in.

I'm not a fan of tying up 16U in props this year, but I love the #'s we're seeing with those guys.   Great that we're less than 5 weeks away - BOL everyone!

Edited August 2 by Broncofan

[BobbyPhil1781]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

DK has the props out too (they’ve been out for a while), it's that time of year.

One note of caution - unders are now winning 60+ percent of the time, because of said injury risk.   It's a huge reason why these #'s look appealing.  On the surface, if these guys play 15+ full games, there's no reason why they won't smash those #'s.   But the injury risk is very much a factor, even before you get to players like Jeudy & Kupp, who are coming off injuries last year, and in Kupp's case, that age threshold where sometimes we see skills start to slide.

It's definitely also why I tend to shy away from anything over 1000+ yards, unless it's at significant plus money.   London's not bad at that price, just keep in mind with injury risk baked in, it's a lot closer to correct than we initially think.

Having said that, I love me some alt lines (and main lines) for guys who are going to be target hogs, so on DK I took the following:

Calvin Ridley O875.5 rec yds 2U / 1000+ rec yds +200 1U DK  - with Nuk Hopkins injury, that number is just so low.

Diontae Johnson O825.5 rec yds 2U / 1000+ rec yds +240 1U DK - with an actual functional OL and HC who's not a horror show, but a team that's likely still trailing,  as long as we get 13-14 full games from Diontae, I think we'll see him get to 1K.   I believe he's going to be the #1 guy there (not Thielen).   Before ppl say "it's Bryce Young" - as a 2nd year guy, there's plenty of room for improvement, and more importantly, outside of NYJ last year, there wasn't a worse QB combination to limit WR production than PIT's (Pickett was a horror show).    His TD equity may not have gone up, but the yardage should be there.

Jerry Jeudy O700.5 rec yds +105 2U DK - the injury history is why I can't back more than 700 (750 is OK too).  Clear #2 guy in CLE, and if Cooper misses time his number goes way up.  Still, his injury risk is why I can't commit to the same ceiling as the other guys.

Khalil Shakir 750+ rec yds +110 2U FD - he's -120 on DK, and like Bobby, I do believe he's the #1 WR (although Kincaid might be the top target) for BUF this year.   

Trey McBride 750+ rec yds +100 2U / 1000+ rec yds +400 1U DK - let's be clear - Zach Ertz was the starter for the first 7 weeks, McBride had a 30-55 percent snap count and much lower target share then - and still ended up with 825+ yards in 2023.    He was the TE1 from Week 8 onwards in terms of target share / targets, and has insane YAC ability.    Yes, Marvin Harrison Jr is legit, but this is a team that at worst will have him as the #2 target, and there's a very real chance they are like the Kelce / Tyreek KC 1-2 hogs (not saying they're the same players, saying the pecking order).  1000+ yards is a holy grail for TE's, but at +400 it's worth a shot.     There are no FD odds other than 750+, this is literally one of the most egregious lines I see posted this offseason.

As far as TD props go, there's only one I'm taking now - Trey McBride 5+ TD +110 2U DK & 7+ TD's +500 1U - this is where having both Kyler Murray the whole season and fully recovered from ACL surgery, and having Harrison Jr. should help McBride in the RZ.   He was absolutely blanketed with double or even triple coverage in the 2H of last year near the RZ.   

I was super tempted to take the yardage prop on Rashid Shaheed, and I'm absolutely gutted Juwan Johnson got hurt, because I'm a big believer that NO upgraded their O by canning Pete Carmichael and bringing in Klint Kubiak - Kubiak is decent, and Carmichael footballl-wise is a pox on humanity.   Given they posted Shaheed at 750+, it's OK, but not great value.    I would have hammered the Juwan TD props, but with his Jones fracture, there are no props, and we need to see that he's OK before diving back in.

I'm not a fan of tying up 16U in props this year, but I love the #'s we're seeing with those guys.   Great that we're less than 5 weeks away - BOL everyone!

Always appreciate your insight. Definitely looking forward to following you a lot this year as you clearly see the angles and know who the data supports.

[Broncofan]

Side note - this is bad PR.   Better that the bettors in those 4 states don’t know they’re losing $ bettors in other states don’t have to pay.  
 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 4 by Broncofan

[BobbyPhil1781]

Just now, Broncofan said:

Side note - this is bad PR.   Better that the bettors in those 4 states don’t know they’re losing $ bettors in other states don’t have to pay.  
 

https://x.com/butlerbets/status/1819115792337871069?s=46&t=JSCW7buh6rkAP4Q7Ebqbfw
 

 

 

Yep. I'm going to cash out everything from DK when I get more books this football season and never look back.

I only have them and FD right now but when the promos for football start hitting, I'm signing up for them. Since you put in so much work here, I'd like to give you some kickback via bonus bets. What books do you use? Going to keep an eye out for referral bonuses.

[JonStark]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Side note - this is bad PR.   Better that the bettors in those 4 states don’t know they’re losing $ bettors in other states don’t have to pay.  
 

https://x.com/butlerbets/status/1819115792337871069?s=46&t=JSCW7buh6rkAP4Q7Ebqbfw
 

 

 

Thanks for posting this. Will have to find somewhere else to go after this year. 

What are the better books people in her use? 

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Yep. I'm going to cash out everything from DK when I get more books this football season and never look back.

I only have them and FD right now but when the promos for football start hitting, I'm signing up for them. Since you put in so much work here, I'd like to give you some kickback via bonus bets. What books do you use? Going to keep an eye out for referral bonuses.

Being in Canada the problem is that B365, DK & FD post the best numbers by far.   And as others know B365 limited me in 2022.   The other books don’t even come close.   But yes a 3-5% charge is crazy.   It increases the required W rate to break even at 52.4% if you bet the same each time (which is why the alt line values are so important).  
 

I use Betonline & Bovada solely when I’m out of province as I can’t use the ON books (that’s the law here).  And VPN doesn’t work.    I have 2 other books - Sports Interaction & TheScore but they are strictly Canadian and it’s only when they post crazy lines.   They are usually way worse than the big 3.    
 

So I appreciate the kind offer but really we’re here to make $ together.   I won’t say no but I don’t see an obvious fit.   And I wouldn’t be premature with walking away from DK completely.   Just obviously be ready to take the same line elsewhere.   But there are times DK is 25-50 percent better with their payouts.   That’s when using them makes sense.  

Edited August 2 by Broncofan

[dcat]

NE Pats u4.5 wins +130.

NYJ o10 +105.

[BobbyPhil1781]

On 8/2/2024 at 2:51 PM, Broncofan said:

Being in Canada the problem is that B365, DK & FD post the best numbers by far.   And as others know B365 limited me in 2022.   The other books don’t even come close.   But yes a 3-5% charge is crazy.   It increases the required W rate to break even at 52.4% if you bet the same each time (which is why the alt line values are so important).  
 

I use Betonline & Bovada solely when I’m out of province as I can’t use the ON books (that’s the law here).  And VPN doesn’t work.    I have 2 other books - Sports Interaction & TheScore but they are strictly Canadian and it’s only when they post crazy lines.   They are usually way worse than the big 3.    
 

So I appreciate the kind offer but really we’re here to make $ together.   I won’t say no but I don’t see an obvious fit.   And I wouldn’t be premature with walking away from DK completely.   Just obviously be ready to take the same line elsewhere.   But there are times DK is 25-50 percent better with their payouts.   That’s when using them makes sense.  

Ok forgot you were our neighbor to the north. I'll just ask for a tip jar the days I follow if it goes bananas. Buy you a case of Molson or something lol

Edited August 4 by BobbyPhil1781

[adamq]

On 8/2/2024 at 2:16 PM, JonStark said:

Thanks for posting this. Will have to find somewhere else to go after this year. 

What are the better books people in her use? 

What state are you in? Generally famduei is the most reliable, but there are plenty of them out there and it's at least worth using the sign up bonuses where you can.  

[adamq]

21 hours ago, dcat said:

NE Pats u4.5 wins +130.

Call me crazy but I like Brissett.. it's really too bad he didn't go to Vegas instead

Edited August 4 by adamq

[agarcia34]

Really like the Vikings ML week 1.

Giants may have the worst secondary and then they’re going up against JJ even with the QB situation goin on. Also got the better defense by a mile. Seems to easy that’s my only worry 

[Tank4Drake]

Betting the Patriots under 4.5 is a horrendous bet. Drake Maye is going to step in Week 5 at the latest and make that entire team looked way better than it is. 

[JonStark]

13 hours ago, adamq said:

What state are you in? Generally famduei is the most reliable, but there are plenty of them out there and it's at least worth using the sign up bonuses where you can.  

I'm in PA. I'm probably going to FD because I usually have trouble trying to register for any of the smaller ones, but if there's a better one out there, I'd give it a shot.