TL-TwoWinsAway Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Just now, CWood21 said: 1.) Lions have been routinely linked to Okudah and Brown. Not OT. I'll believe they'll go OT when I see it. I think it's far more likely that Miami and LA Chargers go OT then the Lions do. I get you want another premium asset, but history suggests it's not likely. You have to go back to 2014 the last time a team traded into the top 5 that didn't involve a QB. 2013 happened with Dion Jordan. Teams just don't usually trade involving top 5 picks. It's just too pricey. 2.) Because you only trade up if you have a guy you NEED to have. Not a guy you want to have. Is Tua the highest graded player on the board and a clear tier above everyone else? Depends on who you ask. Right now, Miami has to feel pretty comfortable that the only team that might be jumping them would be the Chargers, and I'd bet that the Dolphins have a pretty strong read on what the Chargers are going to do. Let's do a little exercise @TL-TwoWinsAway, what would be the BARE MINIMUM you'd need to move down from 3 to either 6 or 7? 1. You know this is the draft, right? Do you really believe that you'll hear the honest truth from each NFL GM in the months leading up to it? Can you really not identify a position where a need (OT) matches up with BPA (#6, in your scenario)? But here you go: Bob Quinn did an interview last week. He said that they signed Vaitai because they view him as a versatile piece, and they believe he can play RG or RT. Taylor Decker is entering the final year of his deal. They have holes at LG and either RG/RT. They live (and die) with Stafford's arm, and Quinn has desperately tried to build an OLine since he arrived in DET. How can you not see the need here? 2. If Tua is the player MIA wants, they risk losing him by standing pat. If Tua is the player that LAC wants, they must trade up to get him. This gives LAC an interest in moving up, which then pressures MIA to make a deal. To #6? Probably a 2nd. Bare minimum. And I feel that LAC would happily give that to land Tua. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted April 22, 2020 Author Share Posted April 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, CWood21 said: It was a point. Teams would always love to move up. But usually the cost is prohibitive. The last time we saw teams swap FRPs that were inside the top 5 and didn't involve a QB was in 2012, when the Browns shipped a fourth and fifth round pick to the Vikings to select Trent Richardson. Prior to that, you'd have to go back to 1995 when the Bengals dealt their SRP to the Panthers to select Ki-Jana Carter. That's two times in the last 25 years that teams have swapped top 5 picks that didn't involve a QB. That's not good history. Okay, but that's why I keep saying it's not likely- only within the context of the rumour being true itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, CWood21 said: And if they don't view Tua like you think they do? IF they believed Tua was their franchise QB, they'd be on the phone with Washington trying to wow them. Absolutely. And I bet they have. There's a huge difference here: if WAS moves down, they lose their guy. If DET moves down, they still get their guy. That's critical. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minutemancl Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, goldfishwars said: Assuming good health (which we can't), there's no logical reason why anyone would have Herbert rated over Tua - I've never bought it. I get that Herbert's physical make-up is bait for dumb GMs so there's always a possibility he gets drafted high, but I had so many issues with him. "Assuming good health" is doing a lot of work here. I know you mentioned that, but still. I like Herbert. I've only watched a few broadcast games of his, definitely haven't done any work on him, but I think it is easy to see what teams like about him. Coaches have always been confident almost to the point of arrogance that they can take these flawed but athletically impressive prospects and mold them into top players. Herbert has got a huge arm, can run, plenty of quality college starts, and he's smart. Coaches have always and will always love prospects like him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnarok Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 4 hours ago, BigC421/ said: Who the hell is this guy anyway? Always just thought he was some bum of the streets Walter brought home to moms basement. His “sources” always seem completely made up and then Walt and him will later refer to there own rumors they made up as confirmation. Seriously though who the heck is Charlie Campbell and why am I supposed to believe he knows people inside nfl front offices? He was a writer at the Pewter Report in Tampa before going to WF. So he got in with the Bucs and went from there. I know Walt and Charlie pretty well having come over from the WF forums and I'll say this...if Charlie says he heard it, he heard it. It could be a team using him as a smokescreen, but he doesn't make things up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Just now, TL-TwoWinsAway said: 1. You know this is the draft, right? Do you really believe that you'll hear the honest truth from each NFL GM in the months leading up to it? Can you really not identify a position where a need (OT) matches up with BPA (#6, in your scenario)? But here you go: Bob Quinn did an interview last week. He said that they signed Vaitai because they view him as a versatile piece, and they believe he can play RG or RT. Taylor Decker is entering the final year of his deal. They have holes at LG and either RG/RT. They live (and die) with Stafford's arm, and Quinn has desperately tried to build an OLine since he arrived in DET. How can you not see the need here? Yes...that doesn't change the fact that GMs do have habits, and they may say or do things subconsciously. Gettleman loves his fatties and he rarely trades down, five of the Lions last 6 top 64 picks were used on non-premium picks, etc. The Lions have been routinely linked to Brown and Okudah for a while now, and they've been reportedly interested in moving down for a while now. Yet there haven't been any real strong rumblings that they're in on the top OTs. Why? If OL was a stronger possibility, don't you think there would have been more rumblings to do so? 3 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: 2. If Tua is the player MIA wants, they risk losing him by standing pat. If Tua is the player that LAC wants, they must trade up to get him. This gives LAC an interest in moving up, which then pressures MIA to make a deal. To #6? Probably a 2nd. Bare minimum. And I feel that LAC would happily give that to land Tua. Because you're again operating the assumption that the Chargers or Dolphins HAVE to have Tua. What if that's not the case? We've heard OT linked to the Chargers more solidly than Tua. And the recent rumblings from Miami seem to have them going OT at 5. We're talking about an incredibly flawed QB, and we're doing it in an offseason where teams aren't able to do as much legwork on these QBs that they would otherwise be able to do. If you're the Chargers or Dolphins, are you going to pay a premium on guys you're not sold on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTTRDynasty Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, goldfishwars said: Assuming good health (which we can't), there's no logical reason why anyone would have Herbert rated over Tua - I've never bought it. I get that Herbert's physical make-up is bait for dumb GMs so there's always a possibility he gets drafted high, but I had so many issues with him. Tell that to the best QB evaluator in the league... David Gettleman: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Yes...that doesn't change the fact that GMs do have habits, and they may say or do things subconsciously. Gettleman loves his fatties and he rarely trades down, five of the Lions last 6 top 64 picks were used on non-premium picks, etc. The Lions have been routinely linked to Brown and Okudah for a while now, and they've been reportedly interested in moving down for a while now. Yet there haven't been any real strong rumblings that they're in on the top OTs. Why? If OL was a stronger possibility, don't you think there would have been more rumblings to do so? Because you're again operating the assumption that the Chargers or Dolphins HAVE to have Tua. What if that's not the case? We've heard OT linked to the Chargers more solidly than Tua. And the recent rumblings from Miami seem to have them going OT at 5. We're talking about an incredibly flawed QB, and we're doing it in an offseason where teams aren't able to do as much legwork on these QBs that they would otherwise be able to do. If you're the Chargers or Dolphins, are you going to pay a premium on guys you're not sold on? When did I say that OT was a stronger possibility? You're changing the argument. I'm arguing that the Lions have a huge need at OT, which puts their top OT in the conversation with Okudah and Brown. Not "stronger possibility", but in that tier. That guarantees the Lions a player from their second tier if they move down to #6, which strengthens their interest in making that trade, even for sub-TVC value. The second paragraph is silly. Sure, if no one wants Tua, no one will move up: I've always said "If they..." during this conversation. I'm merely arguing against your (baseless) belief that the Lions have any interest or desire in pricing themselves out of trading down. It would be nonsensical to do so, especially when they can still land a player in their second prospect tier and additional draft assets by moving down to #6. Edited April 22, 2020 by TL-TwoWinsAway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted April 22, 2020 Author Share Posted April 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, minutemancl said: "Assuming good health" is doing a lot of work here. I know you mentioned that, but still. Yep it is, but in context of reading that teams have him rated higher regardless of the injury. I get why you might pivot away from Tua in the top five if you have genuine health concerns, I don't understand why you would then settle for Herbert at that same spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 49 minutes ago, MWil23 said: I truly believe it’s Miami. They also have the ammunition. If not them, MAYBE the Chargers. The Chargers don't trade. Telesco just isn't that dude. I don't believe the Chargers have made a draft day trade in 3 years. I believe I heard that from Peter King on Barnwell's pod. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.Buzz Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, Forge said: The Chargers don't trade. Telesco just isn't that dude. I don't believe the Chargers have made a draft day trade in 3 years. I believe I heard that from Peter King on Barnwell's pod. But when was the last time they needed a franchise QB and were in position to potentially land one? Doesn't that factor in here? Edited April 22, 2020 by TL-TwoWinsAway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Just now, TL-TwoWinsAway said: When did I say that OT was a stronger possibility? You're changing the argument. I'm arguing that the Lions have a huge need at OT, which puts their top OT in the conversation with Okudah and Brown. Not "stronger possibility", but in that tier. That guarantees the Lions a player from their second tier if they move down to #6, which strengthens their interest in making that trade, even for sub-TVC value. The second paragraph is silly. Sure, if no one wants Tua, no one will move up: I've always said "If they..." during this conversation. I'm merely arguing against your (baseless) belief that the Lions have any interest or desire in pricing themselves out of trading down. It would be nonsensical to do so, especially when they can still land a player in their second prospect tier and additional draft assets by moving down to #6. I said from the get-go that I think the Lions preference is between Okudah and Brown. You proposed the possibility that they could be in the market for an OT, not me. I've operated under that assumption before. I thought they were in the market for an OT last year, and they opted for Hockenson instead. My entire post was under the concept that Brown and Okudah were their top ranked players not named Chase Young. If you want to operate under a different assumption, go ahead. It's really not silly. In fact, I'd argue it's based on logic on what I believe will happen. 1.) Detroit doesn't want to move down past the Chargers pick at 6. 2.) Miami isn't interested in mortgaging their future and trading all the assets they got for Tua. 3.) The Chargers interest in Tua isn't as high as people think We've heard more rumors suggesting the the Chargers aren't interested in Tua then they are interested in Tua. In fact, I think the most recent rumor suggested that Jalen Hurts was more likely going to be their pick than Tua. Hell, I think we've even seen some Herbert to the Chargers at 6 rumors moreso than Tua. I think most of the Tua links have been people connecting dots rather than anything suggesting they'll pick them. Your entire premise is operating under the assumption that BOTH the Chargers and Dolphins view Tua as their franchise QB. Do I think the Dolphins want to take a QB at 5? I do. But do I think they're willing to give up multiple premium picks to do so? No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Just now, TL-TwoWinsAway said: But when was the last time they needed a franchise QB and were in position to potentially land one? Doesn't that factor in here? How many years have we been projecting a QB to the Chargers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Just now, CWood21 said: How many years have we been projecting a QB to the Chargers? How many years have the Chargers not had Rivers atop their depth chart? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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