Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mission27]

29 minutes ago, Xenos said:

I’m worried that the US is still waiting too long to ban travel from and to the UK for now. This feels like what happened in March when we waited too long to stop travel to Europe. And I know that the vaccine is supposed to work against this mutation as well. It’s just annoying that it’s even more infectious.

Its already here, if its really 70% more infectious it will become the dominant strain relatively quickly tbh 

[minutemancl]

I don't know how I didn't get it from my wife, but according to the rapid test I got yesterday, I am negative. A negative test from someone who is asymptomatic is apparently pretty conclusive of not having it, so that just means a few more days of masking up and social distancing in my house.

Work isn't letting me go back until both she and I test negative, which I think is kind of dumb, but I get it. Honestly, I almost wish I did have it. Being confined to your house and having to be in a separate room from your SO when you feel perfectly fine is just awful. If I was sick I would at least want to stay home and rest and get healthy. I'm negative, and want to just live my life normally, but I cannot do that. Yes I understand complaining about this is a very privileged take.

[mission27]

8 hours ago, minutemancl said:

I don't know how I didn't get it from my wife, but according to the rapid test I got yesterday, I am negative. A negative test from someone who is asymptomatic is apparently pretty conclusive of not having it, so that just means a few more days of masking up and social distancing in my house.

Get a PCR test. The false negative rate for rapid antigen testing is very high. As high as 50% for some rapid tests and the false negative rate for any test will be even higher if you are pre-symptomatic.

[ramssuperbowl99]

9 hours ago, mission27 said:

Its already here, if its really 70% more infectious it will become the dominant strain relatively quickly tbh 

Which is why its odd to me that it stayed relatively contained in one small UK area for a month. You'd think the more infectious strain would have dispersed much more quickly.

[minutemancl]

1 hour ago, mission27 said:

Get a PCR test. The false negative rate for rapid antigen testing is very high. As high as 50% for some rapid tests and the false negative rate for any test will be even higher if you are pre-symptomatic.

Good to know. I'm getting tested again today anyway. 

EDIT: Should specify, PCR tested. I ordered the Pixel test by labcorp which will arrive at my house today.

Edited December 21, 2020 by minutemancl

[ramssuperbowl99]

On 12/19/2020 at 5:09 PM, Deadpulse said:

Too early to tell if we should be worried in terms of vaccine effectiveness. As @bucsfan333 pointed out, the vaccine targets the protein it uses to spread, so its not very likely. On the flip side of that, early indications is that this strain spreads faster and that is the only noticeable (at this point in time) difference. That COULD mean the way it infects is different enough to render the vaccine less effective; however again, it isnt likely. 

I think we should be concerned about it overall though. Vaccine implementation WILL be slow, especially in the US. Public diligence is at an all time low and we saw record numbers of infections just a few weeks ago. Imagine a noticeably faster spreading version of this hitting us?? It could absolutely devastate the healthcare system that is already hanging by a thread in most populace places. Holidays, lax attitudes, and a faster spreading strain is a recipe for disaster. 

The thing that is working in our favor is that we don't have to buy that much more time before the vulnerable populations that are going to be the likely ones to put a massive strain on the healthcare system are immunized.  We've got ~10 million doses total out there right now, and a few million more a week. That's enough for healthcare workers and everyone over 75 today, and enough for everyone 70 and over by the end of the year.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html

I can't get the exact number from a quick google search, but it looks like about 2/3rds of hospitalizations are from the 75+ age group, which means even if this new strain was 200% more contagious, it would cancel out the decreasing hospitalization rates from the Phase 1a and 1b vaccination waves.

 

Edited December 21, 2020 by ramssuperbowl99

[mission27]

40 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Which is why its odd to me that it stayed relatively contained in one small UK area for a month. You'd think the more infectious strain would have dispersed much more quickly.

Yeah I’m somewhat skeptical tbh. Although in fairness to BoJo UK was in a somewhat hard lockdown until 2-3 weeks ago and given what we know about incubation periods and the limited international travel atm, it wouldn’t be totally shocking if this is only now blowing up on a scale that can’t be ignored.

But this feels like a government in complete disarray that’s grabbing on to loose and possibly irrelevant speculative models to justify changing course (ie exactly what they did with the imperial study). In this case it backfired big time with the trade and flight stops.

[ramssuperbowl99]

7 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Yeah I’m somewhat skeptical tbh. Although in fairness to BoJo UK was in a somewhat hard lockdown until 2-3 weeks ago and given what we know about incubation periods and the limited international travel atm, it wouldn’t be totally shocking if this is only now blowing up on a scale that can’t be ignored.

But this feels like a government in complete disarray that’s grabbing on to loose and possibly irrelevant speculative models to justify changing course (ie exactly what they did with the imperial study). In this case it backfired big time with the trade and flight stops.

We'll see. Like you said, it's clearly real and it's bad news. The question is, how bad, and can this really amount to much more than than a speedbump on the steady march to normalcy?

[WizeGuy]

A bit of good news to sprinkle onto the concerning news- many healthcare workers Ive talked to who did not want to get the vaccine are changing their tune. Ive talked to 3 or 4 who said they wouldn't get it a couple of weeks ago changing their tune saying they will get it. One who said heck no is still iffy on it. I hope this trend happens in the general public, too. 

Edited December 21, 2020 by WizeGuy

[WizeGuy]

Also, eventually this grimy little bastard has to mutate to be less deadly, right? As of now- there isn't much pressure for it to, but once vaccines come out you'd have to think any mutations would make it resemble the common cold, right? I wonder how many coronaviruses that are now a common cold started out as lethal as this strain. 

[Shanedorf]

On 12/19/2020 at 3:09 PM, Deadpulse said:

Too early to tell if we should be worried in terms of vaccine effectiveness

Below is a picture to show what the spike protein looks like as a molecular model. Its really quite complex. Each color represents a different component and each twist and turn is the result of the building blocks used to make it. Those building blocks can and do change as the virus replicates and makes billions of copies of itself, making "mistakes" along the way. The question is - which changes might matter as far as our immune response ? (most won't)

Your immune system has evolved over millions of years and is not so easily fooled. If every minor change would make the vaccine ineffective, then the same would be true of our immune systems and most of us wouldn't be alive. But here we are.

Its possible there would be enough changes at enough locations to render the vaccines less effective, but it would be astronomically unlikely that there would be enough mutations to render these vaccines ineffective...and still have a viable virus. So we're talking about differences in degree vs differences in kind IF there are any differences at all in terms of the current vaccines' effectiveness vs the different virus strains.

[mission27]

1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

Below is a picture to show what the spike protein looks like as a molecular model. Its really quite complex. Each color represents a different component and each twist and turn is the result of the building blocks used to make it. Those building blocks can and do change as the virus replicates and makes billions of copies of itself, making "mistakes" along the way. The question is - which changes might matter as far as our immune response ? (most won't)

Your immune system has evolved over millions of years and is not so easily fooled. If every minor change would make the vaccine ineffective, then the same would be true of our immune systems and most of us wouldn't be alive. But here we are.

Its possible there would be enough changes at enough locations to render the vaccines less effective, but it would be astronomically unlikely that there would be enough mutations to render these vaccines ineffective...and still have a viable virus. So we're talking about differences in degree vs differences in kind IF there are any differences at all in terms of the current vaccines' effectiveness vs the different virus strains.

That’s a sexy spike protein tbh

[squire12]

1 hour ago, mission27 said:

3 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

Below is a picture to show what the spike protein looks like as a molecular model. Its really quite complex. Each color represents a different component and each twist and turn is the result of the building blocks used to make it. Those building blocks can and do change as the virus replicates and makes billions of copies of itself, making "mistakes" along the way. The question is - which changes might matter as far as our immune response ? (most won't)

Your immune system has evolved over millions of years and is not so easily fooled. If every minor change would make the vaccine ineffective, then the same would be true of our immune systems and most of us wouldn't be alive. But here we are.

Its possible there would be enough changes at enough locations to render the vaccines less effective, but it would be astronomically unlikely that there would be enough mutations to render these vaccines ineffective...and still have a viable virus. So we're talking about differences in degree vs differences in kind IF there are any differences at all in terms of the current vaccines' effectiveness vs the different virus strains.

That’s a sexy spike protein tbh

@mission27  I am sure you are waiting to use that line at the club....

"want to see my spike protein"

[mission27]

31 minutes ago, squire12 said:

@mission27  I am sure you are waiting to use that line at the club....

"want to see my spike protein"

My variant def has a higher basic reproductive number than average, that I can tell you

[rob_shadows]

3 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

Below is a picture to show what the spike protein looks like as a molecular model. Its really quite complex. Each color represents a different component and each twist and turn is the result of the building blocks used to make it. Those building blocks can and do change as the virus replicates and makes billions of copies of itself, making "mistakes" along the way. The question is - which changes might matter as far as our immune response ? (most won't)

Your immune system has evolved over millions of years and is not so easily fooled. If every minor change would make the vaccine ineffective, then the same would be true of our immune systems and most of us wouldn't be alive. But here we are.

Its possible there would be enough changes at enough locations to render the vaccines less effective, but it would be astronomically unlikely that there would be enough mutations to render these vaccines ineffective...and still have a viable virus. So we're talking about differences in degree vs differences in kind IF there are any differences at all in terms of the current vaccines' effectiveness vs the different virus strains.

Yeah I was reading a medical article earlier that said while it is possible for it to mutate enough for vaccines to stop working it typically takes years for that to happen... It mentioned the flu typically taking 5-7 years of mutations for that to occur and the flu is said to mutate much quicker than Covid.