Transfers & Rumors: Deadline Drama!

[Oregon Ducks]

I’m not that high on Godfrey but I like their other business.

[kempus]

23 hours ago, PARROTHEAD said:

Everton spending 27.5 mil on Ben Godfrey. 22yo defender out of Norwich.

Everton have spent 47.37 million for players with an overall market value of 98.85 million.

Theyve been building nicely.

The market value is what a team is willing to pay for them. Any other number is just a fabrication.

Everton have had a very good window though.

[PARROTHEAD]

3 minutes ago, kempus said:

The market value is what a team is willing to pay for them. Any other number is just a fabrication.

Everton have had a very good window though.

Market value is a grading scale like Madden games have. Just universal for all teams and leagues across the globe.

You couldnt add NCAA FCS schools to Maddens scale because only a handful would even register. This is why a price scale model is used instead. A defender worth 450k isnt registering in Europes top leagues. But that grading could find him a home in the MLS, Venezuela Primera, Canada Premier and the likes.

[Canadian Saint]

On 10/1/2020 at 8:25 PM, PARROTHEAD said:

Everton spending 27.5 mil on Ben Godfrey. 22yo defender out of Norwich.

Everton have spent 47.37 million for players with an overall market value of 98.85 million.

Theyve been building nicely.

Second time in recent history that a team who got relegated with the worst defense gets picked clean with multiple players who are coveted. Shows the importance in managers.

[PARROTHEAD]

24 minutes ago, Canadian Saint said:

Second time in recent history that a team who got relegated with the worst defense gets picked clean with multiple players who are coveted. Shows the importance in managers.

I think Covid did a major number on Norwich. They were at a -41 million in operating cost at the end of 2019. This hit and wrecked the Champions leagues media funding. Then stuck paying these guys. Their owners are listed as worth 30 million. Godfrey puts them over 30 million positive, Cantwell pushing them around 55-60 maybe. I dont think they have a choice otherwise but to make these moves.

[kempus]

2 hours ago, PARROTHEAD said:

Market value is a grading scale like Madden games have. Just universal for all teams and leagues across the globe.

You couldnt add NCAA FCS schools to Maddens scale because only a handful would even register. This is why a price scale model is used instead. A defender worth 450k isnt registering in Europes top leagues. But that grading could find him a home in the MLS, Venezuela Primera, Canada Premier and the likes.

The point is, its not relevant to the actual transfer market. 

You should not quote that number as an argument as to whether a transfer is good or not. Its relative.

Edited October 3, 2020 by kempus

[PARROTHEAD]

2 hours ago, kempus said:

The point is, its not relevant to the actual transfer market. 

You should not quote that number as an argument as to whether a transfer is good or not. Its relative.

Its a scale of comparative values based on talent/ability/age within the market. Everton got better talent than they paid for. While Chelsea paid 3x what Mendys market value was set at. Because they feel he will grow into what they paid for him.

And what I quoted as an "argument". Came from the 2 biggest, most visited football sites in all Europe. Cause its what they use as a scale for talent. Its what the DailyMail, Forbes, Spains biggest AS.com and even LigaLive.com a site for Liga itself. In France with France24 and the works all the way down the line as a player rating/grading comparison scale.

And according to what they all go by. Everton got great value for the buck. And you say theyre worth what a team is willing to pay. So if the Cowboys sign Dak to a 45 million a year deal. Youre saying Dak is every bit as good as Mahomes is.

[kempus]

1 hour ago, PARROTHEAD said:

Its a scale of comparative values based on talent/ability/age within the market. Everton got better talent than they paid for. While Chelsea paid 3x what Mendys market value was set at. Because they feel he will grow into what they paid for him.

And what I quoted as an "argument". Came from the 2 biggest, most visited football sites in all Europe. Cause its what they use as a scale for talent. Its what the DailyMail, Forbes, Spains biggest AS.com and even LigaLive.com a site for Liga itself. In France with France24 and the works all the way down the line as a player rating/grading comparison scale.

And according to what they all go by. Everton got great value for the buck. And you say theyre worth what a team is willing to pay. So if the Cowboys sign Dak to a 45 million a year deal. Youre saying Dak is every bit as good as Mahomes is.

I've never see a legitimate source quote or reference that market value number. You simply can't break down football transfers like that. 

Please don't try to compare the NFL cap locked league to the football transfer market, there is no cross over at all. Teams will pay what they and others deem a player to be worth. Of course age, potential, nationality, production etc make up what the player is worth. To suggest that Chelsea payed 3x Mendy's value is wrong, his monetary value is what they were willing to pay for him. His value on the pitch is impossible to measure at the moment. 

I'm not disagreeing that Everton have had a good window. However, I contest that that market value isn't a good way for you to make that argument. The real world isn't like FIFA's player values. 

[PARROTHEAD]

4 hours ago, kempus said:

I've never see a legitimate source quote or reference that market value number. You simply can't break down football transfers like that. 

Please don't try to compare the NFL cap locked league to the football transfer market, there is no cross over at all. Teams will pay what they and others deem a player to be worth. Of course age, potential, nationality, production etc make up what the player is worth. To suggest that Chelsea payed 3x Mendy's value is wrong, his monetary value is what they were willing to pay for him. His value on the pitch is impossible to measure at the moment. 

I'm not disagreeing that Everton have had a good window. However, I contest that that market value isn't a good way for you to make that argument. The real world isn't like FIFA's player values. 

Teams will pay whatever they want. But the market value is a player evaluation as compared to other players. Not a set price. Like with Mendy. The market value says hes a player ranked in the 60s-70s for GKs. Chelsea paid top 20 GK value for him. Saying theres a 50+ space difference in between the overall ranking of him and what Chelsea feels they can get out of him.

Were seeing it different because youre looking at it as a currency value. While I look at it as a positional ranking/evaluation of a player in relation to his peers. Because I dont think Mendy is top 20 or will ever be. He drew a certain price out of need. The actual pay price doesnt matter because youre right, a team can pay whatever they want. Market Value only says hes not ranked in the top 50. Which I can go along with.

Your guy Kane with the Spurs. Hes value says hes behind the no.1 Premier player Sterling. Right there with Trent Alex-Arnold. I dont disagree with that. Thats all the market value is establishing. Along with their being a huge dropoff after the group at the top.

 

Edited October 3, 2020 by PARROTHEAD

[kempus]

38 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said:

Teams will pay whatever they want. But the market value is a player evaluation as compared to other players. Not a set price. Like with Mendy. The market value says hes a player ranked in the 60s-70s for GKs. Chelsea paid top 20 GK value for him. Saying theres a 50+ space difference in between the overall ranking of him and what Chelsea feels they can get out of him.

Were seeing it different because youre looking at it as a currency value. While I look at it as a positional ranking/evaluation of a player in relation to his peers. Because I dont think Mendy is top 20 or will ever be. He drew a certain price out of need. The actual pay price doesnt matter because youre right, a team can pay whatever they want. Market Value only says hes not ranked in the top 50. Which I can go along with.

Your guy Kane with the Spurs. Hes value says hes behind the no.1 Premier player Sterling. Right there with Trent Alex-Arnold. I dont disagree with that. Thats all the market value is establishing. Along with their being a huge dropoff after the group at the top.

 

What metrics do they use to rank these players? Mendy is certainly in the top 50 keepers in the world, hence why he now plays at one of the top 20 clubs.

[PARROTHEAD]

1 hour ago, kempus said:

What metrics do they use to rank these players? Mendy is certainly in the top 50 keepers in the world, hence why he now plays at one of the top 20 clubs.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221717304332

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308647882_Identification_of_Factors_Determining_Market_Value_of_the_Most_Valuable_Football_Players

The first offer for Mendy was 12 million. Then went up a couple times before settling. The team didnt really want to sell him. But Chelsea kept after them. Much like Washington Football Team being stuck with Alex Smith contract after he was injured. They went out and got Case because he was a budget friendly deal. Chelsea is stuck with Kepas contract and could use the more friendly Mendy yearly. During the weeks going after Mendy, he was to be brought in to put pressure on Kepa. Not be a starter. But since Kepa was benched last week. I have no clue to Mendys role now. But he wasnt brought in as a top 50 player to be a starter originally. He was a 10 year experienced player brought in to push the starter and be a backup.

[PARROTHEAD]

Okay. Heres a prime example that just popped up. Wolves badly need addressing their defense. And heres whats happening this morning for them at the Left Back position.

Ruben is 21. Still young, potential to grow. But they know him and his potential.

Rayan is 19. And based on the values. Isnt just a current upgrade, but also has more future potential atm.

How can you not look at this as an upgrade based just on what we have here? It shows Rayan as a pretty big upgrade. Along with showing why Ruben is a better fit currently in the Greece League 1.

[kempus]

7 hours ago, PARROTHEAD said:

Okay. Heres a prime example that just popped up. Wolves badly need addressing their defense. And heres whats happening this morning for them at the Left Back position.

Ruben is 21. Still young, potential to grow. But they know him and his potential.

Rayan is 19. And based on the values. Isnt just a current upgrade, but also has more future potential atm.

How can you not look at this as an upgrade based just on what we have here? It shows Rayan as a pretty big upgrade. Along with showing why Ruben is a better fit currently in the Greece League 1.

Having the read the article, I understand that the market value is a crowd estimation? As in, internet users can say how much they think a player is worth? With zero statistical analysis or requirement to have ever watched the players?

That's where my issue lies. Have you ever watched Nouri play? The "value" is a fabricated number, as I said at the start. You can not rate transfers based on the suggested value. Do some research on the player, watch them play and form your own opinion.

On Mendy, thats how transfer negotiations happen. Start low and meet at a price both teams are happy with. How do you know what role they intended for Mendy? Kepa is awful, so they went to get a replacement. They're stuck with him, but NFL analogies do not apply to Football. I doubt you or I could name 50 better keepers, you can try though, if you wish.

[PARROTHEAD]

2 minutes ago, kempus said:

Having the read the article, I understand that the market value is a crowd estimation? As in, internet users can say how much they think a player is worth? With zero statistical analysis or requirement to have ever watched the players?

That's where my issue lies. Have you ever watched Nouri play? The "value" is a fabricated number, as I said at the start. You can not rate transfers based on the suggested value. Do some research on the player, watch them play and form your own opinion.

On Mendy, thats how transfer negotiations happen. Start low and meet at a price both teams are happy with. How do you know what role they intended for Mendy? Kepa is awful, so they went to get a replacement. They're stuck with him, but NFL analogies do not apply to Football. I doubt you or I could name 50 better keepers, you can try though, if you wish.

Crowd estimation is part of the formula. Not the result. Its 1 of several parts. Just like QBR rating. Pass % is but one part of QBR rating. Everything from age to pass accuracy is part of the Market Value.

And youre still looking at it in a monetary way. Take the money sign from the numbers. 9.9 for a 23yo. 22 for a 19yo. It tells you that you have a higher graded player with more potential and a higher expected shelf. A 9.9 rating isnt going to float in the EPL. But tells you with a 4.4 avg or so in the Greek league. He has the ability to be a dominate player there.

On Mendy. Thats what Chelsea originally said they wanted. A guy to come in and push Kepa. They still had some faith in him at that point and just said they felt he needed to be pushed. Not until the first match were they more inclined to say this could end up a full replacement. Not being able to get rid of Kepa and his 17 mill a year or so contract played a factor in why they didnt go after another huge contract signing. Cause Ajax has a top 10 guy thats only 24 just sitting there. And theyre waiting for a club to toss big money for him.

[Canadian Saint]

United went from Sancho to Dembele to Cavani?! Bloody hell.

Also I'm not sure Arsenal's midfield did anything but get worse through the summer.