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Draft Busts


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6 minutes ago, Teen Girl Squad said:

Still don't like catch radius dominate prospects. You need to be elite at it (football tractor beam) to really pan out a high pick. To be fair with Higgins, I like him better that Treadwell (who was one of the more obvious draft bust to my eye prior to the pick) and I really prefer him as a mid to second round value that a first rounder as a gamble.

Honestly I'm pretty high on this class and outside of Herbert/Love (obvious answers) I don't have a lot of guys that scream "bust to me" this year. Murray (lacks football IQ) and Baun (undersized and not that athletic) are the only other ones that I don't love, but don't quite hate either.

Even if the initial comparisons weren't spot on in terms of measurables, I do agree with you on your overall point. He is big, not a great route runner, not that fast, and is essentially a jump ball WR. There are decent odds of him not panning out in the NFL. Guys like Mike Williams (USC), Limas Sweed, Dwayne Jarrett, and Jonathan Baldwin come to mind 

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26 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

Even if the initial comparisons weren't spot on in terms of measurables, I do agree with you on your overall point. He is big, not a great route runner, not that fast, and is essentially a jump ball WR. There are decent odds of him not panning out in the NFL. Guys like Mike Williams (USC), Limas Sweed, Dwayne Jarrett, and Jonathan Baldwin come to mind 

Tyrell Williams is the ceiling I think. 

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55 minutes ago, Teen Girl Squad said:

Murray (lacks football IQ) 

I don't understand why people don't see this a bigger red flag than it is. If you look at the past handful of busts at linebacker, they all have one thing in common. They have piss poor football IQ's. Murray could be the outlier, but I feel like that weakness is much harder to mask in the NFL. Where almost everyone is running the same speed as you. Out of everything that popped about Murray's game, his ability to take himself out of any given play cause he was either fooled or over committed on his assignment stood out the most. That is not a good sign. 

Edited by YogiBiz
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3 hours ago, jrry32 said:

You're not comparing Higgins to guys like him. He's 6'4" with nearly 35" arms. He's not a 6'1"/6'2" jump ball guy.

I wouldn't hate to have this guy in the 2nd round, but he's very similar to Clemson's Mike Williams, who has been a relative disappointment as the #7 overall pick. 

Keep in mind I actually really like Tee and tend to have a weakness for big-bodied, lengthy possession receivers like him. 

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24 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I wouldn't hate to have this guy in the 2nd round, but he's very similar to Clemson's Mike Williams, who has been a relative disappointment as the #7 overall pick. 

Keep in mind I actually really like Tee and tend to have a weakness for big-bodied, lengthy possession receivers like him. 

Eh, yeah, you're right that Williams wouldn't be a disappointment for a second rounder but is for a first. However, I think Higgins has better athletic traits. He has remarkable quickness and acceleration for a WR as long as he is. Williams was a big-bodied post you up type in college. He overwhelmed people with size. Higgins is long and knows how to use it, but he also has deceptive speed. He's a long strider who can get behind defenders. And he just dominates one on one in the air. Obviously, his press releases and route running are bad right now, so he definitely needs coaching and development. But his contested catch trait is jaw dropping.

1 hour ago, Teen Girl Squad said:

Still don't like catch radius dominate prospects. You need to be elite at it (football tractor beam) to really pan out a high pick. To be fair with Higgins, I like him better that Treadwell (who was one of the more obvious draft bust to my eye prior to the pick) and I really prefer him as a mid to second round value that a first rounder as a gamble.

Honestly I'm pretty high on this class and outside of Herbert/Love (obvious answers) I don't have a lot of guys that scream "bust to me" this year. Murray (lacks football IQ) and Baun (undersized and not that athletic) are the only other ones that I don't love, but don't quite hate either.

Agreed. That's why I like Higgins. He's Mike Evans/Alshon Jeffery dominant at it. Trust me, I'm not usually into guys who don't run routes well. But I make exceptions for one who just flat out dominate in the air. I must have watched 6 to 8 games from Higgins in 2019/2020. I'd say he won 10+ jump balls down the field and lost only two (not counting plays where DPI was called). Of the two, he made an amazing catch on one over Okudah but couldn't quite get his foot down inbounds.

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I'm with you. Tee is otherworldly in his contended catch abilities. I have him as my #6 WR in this class after Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs, Jefferson, and Mims. 

He and Mims are actually very similar from a strength/weakness perspective, but Mims just brings a higher athletic ceiling to the table. 

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3 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I'm with you. Tee is otherworldly in his contended catch abilities. I have him as my #6 WR in this class after Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs, Jefferson, and Mims. 

He and Mims are actually very similar from a strength/weakness perspective, but Mims just brings a higher athletic ceiling to the table. 

I can dig it. I have him over Mims because I think he's a safer pick. His contested catch trait is so dominant to me that I think it could compensate for him not developing a lot in other areas. With Mims, he's got an all-around skill-set that could be really dominant (and thus has more upside), but he has a ways to go. I haven't even bothered with the first rounders. They're not in play for the Rams.

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13 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Agreed. That's why I like Higgins. He's Mike Evans/Alshon Jeffery dominant at it. Trust me, I'm not usually into guys who don't run routes well. But I make exceptions for one who just flat out dominate in the air. I must have watched 6 to 8 games from Higgins in 2019/2020. I'd say he won 10+ jump balls down the field and lost only two (not counting plays where DPI was called). Of the two, he made an amazing catch on one over Okudah but couldn't quite get his foot down inbounds.

I can see that. In my experience its harder to project contested catches to the next level. How much is skill and how much is it inferior comp/good luck? The only guy who I 100% could pencil it in was CJ's ridiculous tape, and he had all of the other boxes checked too. Higgins has a lot to be fair but like turnovers, its a bit too random for me to bank on as the dominate selling point of a prospect. We're all in agreement though that a second rounder is a good value proposition rather than the firsts guys like Treadwell, every Mike Williams etc... commanded.

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1 minute ago, Teen Girl Squad said:

I can see that. In my experience its harder to project contested catches to the next level. How much is skill and how much is it inferior comp/good luck? The only guy who I 100% could pencil it in was CJ's ridiculous tape, and he had all of the other boxes checked too. Higgins has a lot to be fair but like turnovers, its a bit too random for me to bank on as the dominate selling point of a prospect. We're all in agreement though that a second rounder is a good value proposition rather than the firsts guys like Treadwell, every Mike Williams etc... commanded.

I hear ya. If the traits weren't there to convince me it wasn't random (strong hands, great body control, physicality, and length for days), I'd be in the same boat.

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10 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

He’s not a physical freak. And he’s always been good. He plays in a non WR-friendly offense. He doesn’t get to catch bubble screens and gain cheap receptions/yards. 

He did nothing till he was in school for 4 years.

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Quote

He did nothing till he was in school for 4 years.

 

41 catches for 18+ YPC and 6 TD as a JR isnt anything to scoff at. Thats a draft-able season to me, especially at his size. This past year he was getting more volume and his YPC went down but really, it was absolutely amazing from beginning to end. 101 catches in a NFL style offense is pretty insane to reach at the college level. 

Quote

We're all in agreement though that a second rounder is a good value proposition rather than the firsts guys like Treadwell, every Mike Williams etc... commanded.

Mike Williams has been pretty great the past two years, maybe not living up to his top-10 position but 50 catches with a 20 YPC average is a elite 2nd option WR. Probably should have been closer to a top 20 / 25 pick rather than 7th overall though, but most online draftnicks thought that at the time if I remember correctly. 

Edited by BroncosFan2010
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1 hour ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Mike Williams has been pretty great the past two years, maybe not living up to his top-10 position but 50 catches with a 20 YPC average is a elite 2nd option WR. Probably should have been closer to a top 20 / 25 pick rather than 7th overall though, but most online draftnicks thought that at the time if I remember correctly. 

He hasn't had a 50 catch season in the NFL yet. Meanwhile, guys like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay (all selected after the 60th overall pick) have each put up 2 50+ catch seasons. 

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