The QB Thread: Everything Carr, Stidham and beyond...

[BackinBlack]

2 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

The interview was a 2018 post-game interview in the locker room. It was mid-season. I tried to find it a year back but to no avail. I was already starting to sour on Carr because of his 2017 and 2018 play (he was a Bottom 5-6 QB in 2018, specifically for that season alone) but that interview really set me over the edge. 

Yea that would really set me off too. Carr 100% needs to take more deep shots. And deep shots where he isnt throwing it 5 feet OB on the sidelines lol

[BayRaider]

Not being a “dog” is what could make Zach Wilson fail as well, but I do think he has a better overall skillset than Carr. 
 

Lawrence, Lance, and Fields were all dogs. 

[NCOUGHMAN]

1 hour ago, BackinBlack said:

Found this chart, not sure how accurate this is but some things are interesting;
https://subscribers.footballguys.com/teams/teampage-rai-3.php

Ruggs only had 2 redzone atempts all year. Hill on KC had 22, we drafted ruggs to be our Hill, we have to use him in the redzone. Speed kills, find a way to use it. 

Waller had 24 chances, where our next best was agholor as 12. 
Of 59 attempts to WR or TEs, 24 of them went to Waller. That is way to predictable. Need to spread the ball more. 

Says Carr had 96 chances, 27 to WRs, 32 to TEs, not sure how many to RBs, but i dont think it would be a ton, which means that Close to 1/3 of Carrs Redzone throws, are throw aways. Has to imrpove on this. Let the play develop a little longer, or have a rb in the flat, something to get that number way better. 

Foster Moreau, only getting 1 attempt is a joke. 

-
Not sure how accurate, could very easily be wrong but it is interesting I think

Ruggs has to be available first to make a impact in the redzone.

interesting 1/3 are throw aways dam 🤦🏽‍♂️
 
good work tho

[NCOUGHMAN]

1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

Waller has always been a top redzone target. One of the best in the NFL. Carr fans always try to do stuff like this. “Waller isn’t a good redzone target!”. Bull****, Carr just isn’t good in the redzone. Waller would be even better in the redzone with a better QB. 
 

Same stuff with Ruggs. “Ruggs sucks!”. I guarantee the day we get a better QB, who likes throwing deep, Ruggs will breakout with 1100 yards and 8 TDs, while being one of the best deep threats in the league. 
 

I also don’t want to hear that this is on Gruden. Carr has hated going deep since college. He’ll do it if the guy is wide-wide open. An interview in 2018 is what really soured me on Carr, he was asked why he never goes deep, and his response was “You shouldn’t go deep more than once a game as teams will be ready for it”. It was that statement that left my jaw dropped and I lost a little respect for the guy. 
 

Don’t get me wrong, Carr had a solid 2020 and I think he is a fine QB, but @NCOUGHMAN can certainly agree that Carr is no dog. He plays super safe and takes only what is given. 

I gotta find the interview where carr said “it was like 5 hungry dbs staring at me and I had to throw it away” on tape it was 2 guys lol

[BayRaider]

1 minute ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

I gotta find the interview where carr said “it was like 5 hungry dbs staring at me and I had to throw it away” on tape it was 2 guys lol

Yeah he tends to super over-exaggerate. He also had a Kevin Durant Level burner account defending himself. Never brought it up here because I didn’t feel like arguing and getting dumped on by the Carr Crew. 

[NCOUGHMAN]

2 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Yeah he tends to super over-exaggerate. He also had a Kevin Durant Level burner account defending himself. Never brought it up here because I didn’t feel like arguing and getting dumped on by the Carr Crew. 

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/raiders/why-gruden-wasnt-mad-about-derek-carrs-throw-away-fourth-and-goal
 

my bad carr said it was 7 dbs 

[BayRaider]

Just now, NCOUGHMAN said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/raiders/why-gruden-wasnt-mad-about-derek-carrs-throw-away-fourth-and-goal
 

my bad carr said it was 7 dbs 

I can’t watch Carr post-game interviews anymore lol. Especially if it’s a loss. 
 

Check out the story of his Jaycee Frost burner back in August 2020. It was an account that only defended Derek Carr. And once someone questioned it possibly being Carr, the account was deleted instantly. Before it was deleted, the account DM’d someone accusing him of being Carr, and asked the guy to delete the accusation. 

[Mr Raider]

16 hours ago, raidr4life said:

Waller and Kelce were the 2nd and 3rd most targeted in the redzone Waller with 18 catches, Kelce with 13, that's five less catches for Kelce but he had 9tds to Wallers 6tds that's a direct result of Carr's futility inside the 10 yard line. 

I'm not disagreeing with the idea that Carr struggles in the red zone. It's one of the biggest weaknesses in his game, I agree with that. 

My point was just generally speaking a lot of QBs see at least some drop in terms of their completion percentage and such, even if they are still great and efficient in the red zone. And one of the primary reasons being the back end zone operates as another defender/sideline. Teams don't have to play any deeper than that. Which isn't the case in any other part of the field. Meaning more bodies in a much more confined area, defenders being able to play super aggressive coming forward rather than being worried about being beat over the top, less ability to have route concepts that play off eachother and open up a specific area. It just changes so much. QBs naturally will see some decrease in their completion percentage, YPA, and such. That doesn't mean they aren't still great in the red zone or aren't deadly accurate. It's just how it goes. 

As far as Waller, I don't know that targets or receptions necessarily make/determine someone being a great red zone threat. I mean a lot of teams best pass catchers are going to be among the highest targeted redzone threats in the NFL. The same way they will be so high up in the general area of targets overall among their NFL peers. 

I love Waller. I would argue outside of Mack he's the most talented player overall (at their current time playing, so Woodson or Beast Mode wouldn't count) the Raiders have had in the last decade at least, and I might even say my lifetime (30 years old). On just a raw talent and ability level he's one of a handful of guys that I could argue on talent alone is one of the best TE's and biggest nightmare matchups in NFL history. Obviously he had his demons, he transitioned to TE, and he broke out much older than a lot of other elite pass catchers, but what we have seen from him over the past 2 seasons is the type of high level play not many in NFL history have matched at his position. He's also my favorite current Raider and it isn't even close. Love that he's on our team, hope he dominates for years to come. 

All of that being said, I don't think I would consider him a redzone nightmare or say he's one of the best red zone threats/receivers in the NFL. He is targeted a lot there, he has caught a lot of passes in that area, but he's still had 12 receiving touchdowns over the past 2 seasons. And not every single one of those came from inside the 10 yard line (obviously 20 being red zone but the best red zone targets are guys that dominate inside the 10 and score TDs, and even more so for TEs who even the elite average 12 yards a catch or less). 

Waller isn't a great jump ball specialist, he isn't the Antonio Gates type of PF playing TE boxing guys out, out leaping them, out muscling them, and taking the ball away from him. That's actually one of his weaker areas IMO. I'm not saying he's terrible inside the red zone and near the end zone or anything. I just wouldn't say he's one of the best in the NFL at it. Waller dominates with freakish size and speed for his position. Size and speed combo that is so good and has rarely been seen at the NFL level. The closer we are to the end zone though the less that straight line speed advantage is for Waller and the Raiders. Waller is also incredibly gifted for a TE when it comes to his smoothness and route running chops. Combined with his ability to legitimately line up anywhere a TE can. Be it out wide, as a big slot receiver, in line, even in the backfield. Now those last 2 areas certainly do help in the red zone, but not so much where I would say his ability to play all over the formation and his smoothness running routes makes him one of the best red zone targets in the NFL. All of the elite receivers and other tight ends have those qualities too. 

Waller is a good red zone target. And an elite TE overall. Waller would without question for me be the second TE off the board if we are taking guys for right now in the entire NFL for a team overall. I would take almost all of the WRs I consider elite wideouts over Waller in a red zone situation, and I also think Kelce and Kittle are better than Waller in that specific area. 

Am I saying that Carr has had garbage to target overall or in the red zone? No. You could do a lot worse than Waller as your top target regardless of where you are on the field. However all him being so high in receptions and targets in the red zone tells me is that Waller is our top receiver, most targeted player (by a wider margin than MOST NFL teams have between their first and second best receiving targets) on the team overall. Those numbers speak more towards the total lack of other even solid red zone targets on the rest of the roster than they speak to how dominant Waller is in that specific area IMO. 

None of that means it's justifiable for Carr to play as bad as he does in the red zone or is a way of saying it's not his fault. It has consistently been a hole in his game regardless of who he was playing with. And he needs to get way better in that area if he wants to see the really meaningful games. Waller however, isn't an elite, go to target in the red zone that dominates in that area at a higher level than most of the best receivers in the NFL IMO. I would argue if you made Waller a bit more physical, in terms of blocking and in terms of boxing out defenders, playing through them, and winning contested catches, you would have the perfect TE. He's much more of a create separation, stretch the seem unlike most TEs are capable of, blow past LBs and S for easy catches than he is a physically dominating contested catch machine. That is the one department where you can watch him play and say yeah this is a guy that played WR for most of his career until he was already in the NFL. 

[Turnobili]

i dont get why there is so much debate around carr. doesn't everybody know who he is? he's a good not great QB. it would take a very specifically built roster for a Carr-led team to win. a front office that blows as many draft picks and FA signings as ours is not likely going to win with a guy like Carr.

he's is the "almost as good as matt ryan" realm of QB, along with Kirk Cousins, etc.

he's not close to the elite tier

its possible to compete with him, but requires a competent FO which we lack. our FO needs a qb that can cover their blunders. or you stick with carr and hope that eventually grudock will get something right

[BackinBlack]

2 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

i dont get why there is so much debate around carr. doesn't everybody know who he is? he's a good not great QB. it would take a very specifically built roster for a Carr-led team to win. a front office that blows as many draft picks and FA signings as ours is not likely going to win with a guy like Carr.

he's is the "almost as good as matt ryan" realm of QB, along with Kirk Cousins, etc.

he's not close to the elite tier

its possible to compete with him, but requires a competent FO which we lack. our FO needs a qb that can cover their blunders. or you stick with carr and hope that eventually grudock will get something right

for sure, I guess that I just dont trust our FO to draft / sign some one better. LOL. 
I am all for Watson (case pending) or Rodgers, I wouldve moved up for Fields. 

With our roster having as many holes as I believe it does, I am fine with Carr. 
As we become more complete, which I think we have made major strides from 2018, it will become closer to the time to make a major trade to move up. 

[Turnobili]

if we went from Carr to replacement level, we would have been picking top 5 the last couple of seasons.

i can see the argument that you dont trust the FO and therefore think its worth sacrificing everything for an elite QB (Waller + multiple first to land pre-lawsuit Watson), or whatever it would take to get Rodgers.

im mostly against the rodgers one because of his age... and we wouldnt have a roster as good as GB's last few. Watson would have been a lot more intriguing because of how young he is

[NCOUGHMAN]

23 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I can’t watch Carr post-game interviews anymore lol. Especially if it’s a loss. 
 

Check out the story of his Jaycee Frost burner back in August 2020. It was an account that only defended Derek Carr. And once someone questioned it possibly being Carr, the account was deleted instantly. Before it was deleted, the account DM’d someone accusing him of being Carr, and asked the guy to delete the accusation. 

I remember that lol 

[Turnobili]

47 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I can’t watch Carr post-game interviews anymore lol. Especially if it’s a loss. 
 

Check out the story of his Jaycee Frost burner back in August 2020. It was an account that only defended Derek Carr. And once someone questioned it possibly being Carr, the account was deleted instantly. Before it was deleted, the account DM’d someone accusing him of being Carr, and asked the guy to delete the accusation. 

yeah. his pressers after losses are so predictable. "its all on me, ive gotta do better". same canned lines over and over again. just like his pre-game hype speech. ill give you everything i got, you give me everything you got, etc etc

but ultimately he's been a good player sans 2017-18, so im good with him at least playing out his deal considering how cheap he is (tho we only have 1 offseason left where we benefit from that)

Edited May 17, 2021 by Turnobili

[raidr4life]

3 hours ago, BackinBlack said:

also these numbers are from the redzone, and you use it to claim Carrs bad inside the 10 yard line. 
Lets looks at Waller vs Kelce, from inside the 10, since that is the point YOU were trying to make;

Waller - 11 targets, 9 catches, 6 TDs
Kelce - 13 targets, 8 catches, 7 TDs

So, inside the 10, Waller and Carr were essentialy just as effective. LOL

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/redzone-receiving.htm

 

 

Carr wasn't effective overall he down right sucked.

[BackinBlack]

2 minutes ago, raidr4life said:

Carr wasn't effective overall he down right sucked.

Sure.
Your choice to compare him and waller to Mahommes and Kelce inside the 10 was just a bad argument, because they are very similar. LOL.