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The QB Thread: Everything Carr, Stidham and beyond...


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1 hour ago, Mr Raider said:

I'm not disagreeing with the idea that Carr struggles in the red zone. It's one of the biggest weaknesses in his game, I agree with that. 

My point was just generally speaking a lot of QBs see at least some drop in terms of their completion percentage and such, even if they are still great and efficient in the red zone. And one of the primary reasons being the back end zone operates as another defender/sideline. Teams don't have to play any deeper than that. Which isn't the case in any other part of the field. Meaning more bodies in a much more confined area, defenders being able to play super aggressive coming forward rather than being worried about being beat over the top, less ability to have route concepts that play off eachother and open up a specific area. It just changes so much. QBs naturally will see some decrease in their completion percentage, YPA, and such. That doesn't mean they aren't still great in the red zone or aren't deadly accurate. It's just how it goes. 

As far as Waller, I don't know that targets or receptions necessarily make/determine someone being a great red zone threat. I mean a lot of teams best pass catchers are going to be among the highest targeted redzone threats in the NFL. The same way they will be so high up in the general area of targets overall among their NFL peers. 

I love Waller. I would argue outside of Mack he's the most talented player overall (at their current time playing, so Woodson or Beast Mode wouldn't count) the Raiders have had in the last decade at least, and I might even say my lifetime (30 years old). On just a raw talent and ability level he's one of a handful of guys that I could argue on talent alone is one of the best TE's and biggest nightmare matchups in NFL history. Obviously he had his demons, he transitioned to TE, and he broke out much older than a lot of other elite pass catchers, but what we have seen from him over the past 2 seasons is the type of high level play not many in NFL history have matched at his position. He's also my favorite current Raider and it isn't even close. Love that he's on our team, hope he dominates for years to come. 

All of that being said, I don't think I would consider him a redzone nightmare or say he's one of the best red zone threats/receivers in the NFL. He is targeted a lot there, he has caught a lot of passes in that area, but he's still had 12 receiving touchdowns over the past 2 seasons. And not every single one of those came from inside the 10 yard line (obviously 20 being red zone but the best red zone targets are guys that dominate inside the 10 and score TDs, and even more so for TEs who even the elite average 12 yards a catch or less). 

Waller isn't a great jump ball specialist, he isn't the Antonio Gates type of PF playing TE boxing guys out, out leaping them, out muscling them, and taking the ball away from him. That's actually one of his weaker areas IMO. I'm not saying he's terrible inside the red zone and near the end zone or anything. I just wouldn't say he's one of the best in the NFL at it. Waller dominates with freakish size and speed for his position. Size and speed combo that is so good and has rarely been seen at the NFL level. The closer we are to the end zone though the less that straight line speed advantage is for Waller and the Raiders. Waller is also incredibly gifted for a TE when it comes to his smoothness and route running chops. Combined with his ability to legitimately line up anywhere a TE can. Be it out wide, as a big slot receiver, in line, even in the backfield. Now those last 2 areas certainly do help in the red zone, but not so much where I would say his ability to play all over the formation and his smoothness running routes makes him one of the best red zone targets in the NFL. All of the elite receivers and other tight ends have those qualities too. 

Waller is a good red zone target. And an elite TE overall. Waller would without question for me be the second TE off the board if we are taking guys for right now in the entire NFL for a team overall. I would take almost all of the WRs I consider elite wideouts over Waller in a red zone situation, and I also think Kelce and Kittle are better than Waller in that specific area. 

Am I saying that Carr has had garbage to target overall or in the red zone? No. You could do a lot worse than Waller as your top target regardless of where you are on the field. However all him being so high in receptions and targets in the red zone tells me is that Waller is our top receiver, most targeted player (by a wider margin than MOST NFL teams have between their first and second best receiving targets) on the team overall. Those numbers speak more towards the total lack of other even solid red zone targets on the rest of the roster than they speak to how dominant Waller is in that specific area IMO. 

None of that means it's justifiable for Carr to play as bad as he does in the red zone or is a way of saying it's not his fault. It has consistently been a hole in his game regardless of who he was playing with. And he needs to get way better in that area if he wants to see the really meaningful games. Waller however, isn't an elite, go to target in the red zone that dominates in that area at a higher level than most of the best receivers in the NFL IMO. I would argue if you made Waller a bit more physical, in terms of blocking and in terms of boxing out defenders, playing through them, and winning contested catches, you would have the perfect TE. He's much more of a create separation, stretch the seem unlike most TEs are capable of, blow past LBs and S for easy catches than he is a physically dominating contested catch machine. That is the one department where you can watch him play and say yeah this is a guy that played WR for most of his career until he was already in the NFL. 

But Carr doesn't throw tds down there which is my point Rodgers would absolutely have a field day with Waller.

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3 minutes ago, BackinBlack said:

Sure.
Your choice to compare him and waller to Mahommes and Kelce inside the 10 was just a bad argument, because they are very similar. LOL.
 

Dude Carr suck inside the 10,20 whatever if Waller was playing with Mahommes who doesn't suck in the redzone he'd have more td's in the redzone end of story.

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1 minute ago, raidr4life said:

Dude Carr suck inside the 10,20 whatever if Waller was playing with Mahommes who doesn't suck in the redzone he'd have more td's in the redzone end of story.

I wish it was that simple.  Kelce barely had more than Waller this past season and he has Mahomes throwing to him, with a better WR group, and a HC that can easily be argued as the better offensive mind compared to Gruden.  Andy Reid's play calling is superb.  Some of the plays they run are just so unstoppable at times it's insane.  I hate them, but I know their offense is capable of going toe to toe with every team in the NFL.

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7 minutes ago, Jerry said:

I wish it was that simple.  Kelce barely had more than Waller this past season and he has Mahomes throwing to him, with a better WR group, and a HC that can easily be argued as the better offensive mind compared to Gruden.  Andy Reid's play calling is superb.  Some of the plays they run are just so unstoppable at times it's insane.  I hate them, but I know their offense is capable of going toe to toe with every team in the NFL.

So when will Carr be responsible for his poor redzone stats? Unless you want to say every mediocre QB that performs better has better weapons, or just or better coaches or can we just admit Carr is mediocre.

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2 minutes ago, raidr4life said:

So when will Carr be responsible for his poor redzone stats? Unless you want to say every mediocre QB that performs better has better weapons, or just or better coaches or can we just admit Carr is mediocre.

Blah blah blah.  You literally made a statement about how Waller would be better if he had Mahomes and I just argued against it, saying that Waller did pretty well with LV and that Kelce did slightly better while having a much better QB and play calling.  Then you change it to being about Carr being responsible for his stats.  I never said he wasn't responsible, you just shifted the conversation towards something I didn't even comment on.  Anyway, Carr isn't mediocre, he's above average, which still isn't saying much.

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1 hour ago, raidr4life said:

So when will Carr be responsible for his poor redzone stats? Unless you want to say every mediocre QB that performs better has better weapons, or just or better coaches or can we just admit Carr is mediocre.

But he's not mediocre. I try to stay impartial, but I just can't level with anyone who tells me Derek Carr is a mediocre quarterback. That's essentially saying quarterbacks in the Matt Stafford/Matt Ryan tier are mediocre quarterbacks. 

Watching the redzone plays, it's obvious that Gruden did a horrific job with play calling. I can go back through again to show some of y'all, but it was really really bad.

Granted, I don't think there's anything wrong with trying to extend the play and find someone open. But I watched all 22 of games down the stretch and there was literally nothing there on a lot of them. 

Look at the way Gruden used Waller down the stretch in the redzone. Look at how poorly the run game performed in the redzone down the stretch, leading to long third and goals. That's more on the offensive line than anything else. FO ranked them bottom 10 in run blocking, borderline bottom 5 IIRC.

Can Carr use his legs more? Sure. I think it frustrates everyone. But I also don't think he's a BAD redzone quarterback. 
 

The keys to improving the offense this year will be improvements in the run game, Carr using his legs more and cleaning up his footwork, and the young receivers+foster continuing to improve.

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1 hour ago, raidr4life said:

Dude Carr suck inside the 10,20 whatever if Waller was playing with Mahommes who doesn't suck in the redzone he'd have more td's in the redzone end of story.

haha that maybe so! 

again, i was just pointing out the flaw in your argument. Carr to Waller was nearly just as effective as Mahommes to Kelce inside the 10. 

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2 hours ago, raidr4life said:

But Carr doesn't throw tds down there which is my point Rodgers would absolutely have a field day with Waller.

I don't disagree with that sentiment at all. Rodgers would make any elite WR or TE even better. A Rodgers and Waller pairing would put up some crazy good numbers. 

I however am kind of mixed on the prospect of trading for Rodgers. I'm not totally opposed to it or anything. But I am of the opinion that trading 2 or 3 firsts and potentially more later picks would be a mistake. Not because Rodgers isn't elite, but because I just don't believe trading all those premium picks for a 38 year old QB, regardless of how good they are, is the best move long term. 

If I really thought Rodgers alone made us a favorite or a legitimate contender for the super bowl for the next 2-4 years I would pull the trigger. However, while I think he would make us a playoff team, perhaps even a 11-13 win team in the regular season, I don't think Rodgers alone masks enough of the other holes to say we should feel like we are a top 4 or 5 team in football and a top 3 team in the AFC with the addition of Rodgers. 

If I am trading multiple first round picks plus more, it would be for Russell Wilson (as my top choice) or waiting to see how the off the field issues shake out and use all those resources to trade for Watson assuming he doesn't have to step away from football for any significant amount of time (and more importantly that you feel confident in his character). Both of those guys are elite QBs and significantly younger. I would pull the trigger moving all those picks for one of them because you can have legitimate belief you are getting elite (or close to it) QB play for the next 5-8 years with Wilson and 10+ with Watson. In the best case, for non Brady players you are trading for Rodgers and hoping you get 2, maybe 3 elite years, and 1 MAYBE 2 more years of good QB play. Not to mention prior to this past season Rodgers looked to be on a clear decline. A new team with different strengths, a bad defense, new coaching staff, etc does increase the chances we get Rodgers level play from 2018 and 2019. 

Now if we are talking about trading only one first plus a couple later picks, perhaps even 2 if we can move DC in a separate move for a first (I think that's extremely reasonable and realistic) that is a different story and would be worth the risk of trying to see just how far the upgrade to Rodgers can take us. 

And yeah, I get the idea that Gruden and Mayock haven't shown much to inspire confidence when it comes to their use of first round picks, but I don't believe you make moves like that simply because you are going to conced never being able to properly make use of those assets. 

I think if Rodgers is moved (and I think it ends up being after this upcoming season not before this year) the return will be much closer to a single first and another 2nd or 3rd and not the multiple firsts and more some fans and media have proposed, but a biding war is entirely possible and could make it much higher. I just don't see many teams thinking trading multiple first round picks for a 38-39 year old QB is the right way to build for the future. If you make a move like that, you better be sure Rodgers makes you a contender for at least 2-3 years and probably win one championship. And while it's entirely possible. He's a great QB. It's not like we haven't seen Rodgers in his current environment throughout his entire prime fail to get over the hump and make it past the conference championship. You would need to really love the current construction of your team and think that GB has been a big part in holding Rodgers back from finding a way to win a super bowl in the past decade. 

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2 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

But he's not mediocre. I try to stay impartial, but I just can't level with anyone who tells me Derek Carr is a mediocre quarterback. That's essentially saying quarterbacks in the Matt Stafford/Matt Ryan tier are mediocre quarterbacks. 

Watching the redzone plays, it's obvious that Gruden did a horrific job with play calling. I can go back through again to show some of y'all, but it was really really bad.

Granted, I don't think there's anything wrong with trying to extend the play and find someone open. But I watched all 22 of games down the stretch and there was literally nothing there on a lot of them. 

Look at the way Gruden used Waller down the stretch in the redzone. Look at how poorly the run game performed in the redzone down the stretch, leading to long third and goals. That's more on the offensive line than anything else. FO ranked them bottom 10 in run blocking, borderline bottom 5 IIRC.

Can Carr use his legs more? Sure. I think it frustrates everyone. But I also don't think he's a BAD redzone quarterback. 
 

The keys to improving the offense this year will be improvements in the run game, Carr using his legs more and cleaning up his footwork, and the young receivers+foster continuing to improve.

100 percent spot on.  Calling Carr a mediocre QB is flat out insane and it seems like the same group on here cherry picking stats YOY, calling for him to be replaced every offseason and continually being disappointed at the start of a new season as week one rolls around Carr will be once again lining up behind center.   Is Carr a perfect Qb? clearly the answer is no.  Can we improve our QB position? Of course we can but there are many risk factors involved in improvement and what will the long term cost be. 

Blaming Carr is a very low brow and uneducated take on the state of this franchise and is completely lacking logic as to why this team is at best average this year, below average throughout Carr's career and the 20 years before he arrived.  We've beat that narrative to a pulp with the embarrassing D, poor drafts, terrible FA signing, constant coaching turnover going from one bum to the next....  Do you think the Vegas odds for the Raiders to make the playoffs are +340 because of Carr? The Raiders are only ahead of the Lions, Texans, Jets and Bengals.  That is what the odds makers think of our talent.  Bottom the the barrel trash once again!

Let's talk about the RZ, predictability and our weapon options.  Gruden's play calling in the RZ is clearly lacking.  I'm not going to dive too deep into the weeds here because this post could go on forever.  What I do want to point out is that we become very predictable in the RZ and that is due to a lack to weapons when we are faced with a shortened field.  Waller is our only viable RZ threat and has the numbers to prove it.  Outside of Waller we have nothing that a D coordinator fears unless we are within 3 yards and Jacobs can bruise his way in.  Outside of that we are one dimensional and D coordinators know this.  Not having the personnel limits what we can do, as a D coordinator only has to focus on Waller as our other WR have a hard time winning jump balls or being physical. That is the way this WR corp has been assembled and I don't understand why we don't get bigger bodied, more physical WR's to compliment the Ruggs, NA and Brown's. The speed that those guys possess is great for opening things up between the 20's but when the field is shortened int he RZ we don't have the personnel to win those physical battles.  

Check out this list of bums since Carr has taken over and if you were a D coordinator would you have any worries on Sunday that these chumps can beat your guys one on one?  I wouldn't and stifling this team in the RZ is as simple as doubling Waller knowing that the raiders chumps will lose their battles more times than not.  Waller's success in the RZ this last year is very impressive because of what I mentioned above and shows me that he is truly one of the elite TE's in the NFL.  Everyone knows Waller is option number one, D coordinators game plan to shut his down, double him and he still win.  That is a very good football payer!

Being a QB and throwing to this list of garbage would be quite limiting knowing that 95 percent of these jokers don't even belong in the NFL. 

Our WR's and RB's over Carr's career:

2014: Jones, Streater, Moore, Little, Holmes, Criner RB: MJD and Mcfadden

2015: Holmes, Streater, Jones, Butler, Tompkins, Roberts RB: Murray and MJD

2016: Cooper, Crabtree, Roberts, Holmes, Holton RB: Murry and T. Jones

2017:  Cooper, Crabtree, Holton, Paterson, Roberts RB:  Lynch and Washington

2018:Jordy Nelson, Ateman, Holton, Hatcher, Roberts RB:  Lynch and Martin

2019: JJ Nelson, Harris, Renfrow, Grant, Ateman RB: Jacobs and Richard

Do you see RZ success with this list of abysmal trash? 

Edited by Frankie2Gunz
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2 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

But he's not mediocre. I try to stay impartial, but I just can't level with anyone who tells me Derek Carr is a mediocre quarterback.

He’s not saying Carr is mediocre. He is saying Carr is is mediocre in the redzone. Which he is. He should have clarified at the end “in the redzone” but that’s clearly how I read his post. 
 

Also, Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford are better QBs than Carr. Matt Ryan 2016 and 2018 blows anything Carr has done out of the water. Literally into complete oblivion. As for Stafford, one of the toughest QBs there is who can throw into tight windows and extend drives. None of that former sentence describes Derek Carr. 

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23 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

He’s not saying Carr is mediocre. He is saying Carr is is mediocre in the redzone. Which he is. He should have clarified at the end “in the redzone” but that’s clearly how I read his post. 
 

Also, Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford are better QBs than Carr. Matt Ryan 2016 and 2018 blows anything Carr has done out of the water. Literally into complete oblivion. As for Stafford, one of the toughest QBs there is who can throw into tight windows and extend drives. None of that former sentence describes Derek Carr. 

At this stage of their career they’re very similar quarterbacks. All in that 10-15 range, not super mobile but capable of throwing down field with accuracy and playing in shootouts. It’s not a perfect comparison,  but I’m fine with it.

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4 hours ago, Jerry said:

Blah blah blah.  You literally made a statement about how Waller would be better if he had Mahomes and I just argued against it, saying that Waller did pretty well with LV and that Kelce did slightly better while having a much better QB and play calling.  Then you change it to being about Carr being responsible for his stats.  I never said he wasn't responsible, you just shifted the conversation towards something I didn't even comment on.  Anyway, Carr isn't mediocre, he's above average, which still isn't saying much.

He's mediocre in the redzone duh.

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2 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

But he's not mediocre. I try to stay impartial, but I just can't level with anyone who tells me Derek Carr is a mediocre quarterback. That's essentially saying quarterbacks in the Matt Stafford/Matt Ryan tier are mediocre quarterbacks. 

Watching the redzone plays, it's obvious that Gruden did a horrific job with play calling. I can go back through again to show some of y'all, but it was really really bad.

Granted, I don't think there's anything wrong with trying to extend the play and find someone open. But I watched all 22 of games down the stretch and there was literally nothing there on a lot of them. 

Look at the way Gruden used Waller down the stretch in the redzone. Look at how poorly the run game performed in the redzone down the stretch, leading to long third and goals. That's more on the offensive line than anything else. FO ranked them bottom 10 in run blocking, borderline bottom 5 IIRC.

Can Carr use his legs more? Sure. I think it frustrates everyone. But I also don't think he's a BAD redzone quarterback. 
 

The keys to improving the offense this year will be improvements in the run game, Carr using his legs more and cleaning up his footwork, and the young receivers+foster continuing to improve.

I meant in the redzone I posted early about good Carr is between the 20's

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2 hours ago, Mr Raider said:

I don't disagree with that sentiment at all. Rodgers would make any elite WR or TE even better. A Rodgers and Waller pairing would put up some crazy good numbers. 

I however am kind of mixed on the prospect of trading for Rodgers. I'm not totally opposed to it or anything. But I am of the opinion that trading 2 or 3 firsts and potentially more later picks would be a mistake. Not because Rodgers isn't elite, but because I just don't believe trading all those premium picks for a 38 year old QB, regardless of how good they are, is the best move long term. 

If I really thought Rodgers alone made us a favorite or a legitimate contender for the super bowl for the next 2-4 years I would pull the trigger. However, while I think he would make us a playoff team, perhaps even a 11-13 win team in the regular season, I don't think Rodgers alone masks enough of the other holes to say we should feel like we are a top 4 or 5 team in football and a top 3 team in the AFC with the addition of Rodgers. 

If I am trading multiple first round picks plus more, it would be for Russell Wilson (as my top choice) or waiting to see how the off the field issues shake out and use all those resources to trade for Watson assuming he doesn't have to step away from football for any significant amount of time (and more importantly that you feel confident in his character). Both of those guys are elite QBs and significantly younger. I would pull the trigger moving all those picks for one of them because you can have legitimate belief you are getting elite (or close to it) QB play for the next 5-8 years with Wilson and 10+ with Watson. In the best case, for non Brady players you are trading for Rodgers and hoping you get 2, maybe 3 elite years, and 1 MAYBE 2 more years of good QB play. Not to mention prior to this past season Rodgers looked to be on a clear decline. A new team with different strengths, a bad defense, new coaching staff, etc does increase the chances we get Rodgers level play from 2018 and 2019. 

Now if we are talking about trading only one first plus a couple later picks, perhaps even 2 if we can move DC in a separate move for a first (I think that's extremely reasonable and realistic) that is a different story and would be worth the risk of trying to see just how far the upgrade to Rodgers can take us. 

And yeah, I get the idea that Gruden and Mayock haven't shown much to inspire confidence when it comes to their use of first round picks, but I don't believe you make moves like that simply because you are going to conced never being able to properly make use of those assets. 

I think if Rodgers is moved (and I think it ends up being after this upcoming season not before this year) the return will be much closer to a single first and another 2nd or 3rd and not the multiple firsts and more some fans and media have proposed, but a biding war is entirely possible and could make it much higher. I just don't see many teams thinking trading multiple first round picks for a 38-39 year old QB is the right way to build for the future. If you make a move like that, you better be sure Rodgers makes you a contender for at least 2-3 years and probably win one championship. And while it's entirely possible. He's a great QB. It's not like we haven't seen Rodgers in his current environment throughout his entire prime fail to get over the hump and make it past the conference championship. You would need to really love the current construction of your team and think that GB has been a big part in holding Rodgers back from finding a way to win a super bowl in the past decade. 

I'm not advocating for Rodgers, all I'm saying is somebody said Waller wasn't a true redzone threat, my argument was that Carr is horrible in the redzone any QB that has thrown upwards of 19 tds in the redzone would have Waller looking better than he already does.

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1 hour ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

100 percent spot on.  Calling Carr a mediocre QB is flat out insane and it seems like the same group on here cherry picking stats YOY, calling for him to be replaced every offseason and continually being disappointed at the start of a new season as week one rolls around Carr will be once again lining up behind center.   Is Carr a perfect Qb? clearly the answer is no.  Can we improve our QB position? Of course we can but there are many risk factors involved in improvement and what will the long term cost be. 

Blaming Carr is a very low brow and uneducated take on the state of this franchise and is completely lacking logic as to why this team is at best average this year, below average throughout Carr's career and the 20 years before he arrived.  We've beat that narrative to a pulp with the embarrassing D, poor drafts, terrible FA signing, constant coaching turnover going from one bum to the next....  Do you think the Vegas odds for the Raiders to make the playoffs are +340 because of Carr? The Raiders are only ahead of the Lions, Texans, Jets and Bengals.  That is what the odds makers think of our talent.  Bottom the the barrel trash once again!

Let's talk about the RZ, predictability and our weapon options.  Gruden's play calling in the RZ is clearly lacking.  I'm not going to dive too deep into the weeds here because this post could go on forever.  What I do want to point out is that we become very predictable in the RZ and that is due to a lack to weapons when we are faced with a shortened field.  Waller is our only viable RZ threat and has the numbers to prove it.  Outside of Waller we have nothing that a D coordinator fears unless we are within 3 yards and Jacobs can bruise his way in.  Outside of that we are one dimensional and D coordinators know this.  Not having the personnel limits what we can do, as a D coordinator only has to focus on Waller as our other WR have a hard time winning jump balls or being physical. That is the way this WR corp has been assembled and I don't understand why we don't get bigger bodied, more physical WR's to compliment the Ruggs, NA and Brown's. The speed that those guys possess is great for opening things up between the 20's but when the field is shortened int he RZ we don't have the personnel to win those physical battles.  

Check out this list of bums since Carr has taken over and if you were a D coordinator would you have any worries on Sunday that these chumps can beat your guys one on one?  I wouldn't and stifling this team in the RZ is as simple as doubling Waller knowing that the raiders chumps will lose their battles more times than not.  Waller's success in the RZ this last year is very impressive because of what I mentioned above and shows me that he is truly one of the elite TE's in the NFL.  Everyone knows Waller is option number one, D coordinators game plan to shut his down, double him and he still win.  That is a very good football payer!

Being a QB and throwing to this list of garbage would be quite limiting knowing that 95 percent of these jokers don't even belong in the NFL. 

Our WR's and RB's over Carr's career:

2014: Jones, Streater, Moore, Little, Holmes, Criner RB: MJD and Mcfadden

2015: Holmes, Streater, Jones, Butler, Tompkins, Roberts RB: Murray and MJD

2016: Cooper, Crabtree, Roberts, Holmes, Holton RB: Murry and T. Jones

2017:  Cooper, Crabtree, Holton, Paterson, Roberts RB:  Lynch and Washington

2018:Jordy Nelson, Ateman, Holton, Hatcher, Roberts RB:  Lynch and Martin

2019: JJ Nelson, Harris, Renfrow, Grant, Ateman RB: Jacobs and Richard

Do you see RZ success with this list of abysmal trash? 

So basically the raiders are ruining carr?
 

It’s not gruden carr sucked in the redzone before gruden even returned. Even 2016 the “magic year” carr sucked in the redzone with musgrave who I know gets so much respect around here. Crazy ya boy crab legs Winston and noodle armed Marriota did better redzone #’s in 2016 than carr. 
 

carr throws 1/3 of his redzone passes away that’s not what mambas do. Plus all it does is put more pressure on him to complete the other passes. 

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