JDBrocks Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, Klomp said: That wasn't what Worm said. He said he's shown a willingness to throw past the sticks in these plays (remember the Bradford debates last year?), not that he's been the best in the league. I didn’t say that he said he’s been one of the best in the league, did I? I am glad he’s been willing to do that. I just wish he was better at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDBrocks Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 32 minutes ago, Purplexing said: Quick! How many of those 3rd & longs were a direct result of penalties, such as holding on 1st or 2nd down, that created 2nd & 15 or 1st & 20? Tick, tock, tick, tock. How does that compare to other teams' QBs 3rd & long situations? If not many of the 3rd & long downs were due to penalties, Shame on Shurmur!, er, um, I meant... Shame on Keenum! If you actually want to know, there’s this thing called a search engine. You could use it to find answers to the questions you are asking. Unless you are asking questions that you don’t want to know the answer to.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SemperFeist Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, Klomp said: You don't think a team changes its playcalling if down 9-7 in the 3rd quarter versus being down 21-7 in the 3rd quarter? Last I checked 21-7 is more than a one possession game. And we weren’t up 21-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freakish Mind Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 hours ago, Heimdallr said: Who would have guessed before the season that the first thread to hit 100 pages on the new forum would be about Case Keenum? This thread has more than double the pages of any other thread. There's no other thread that has brought out so many different opinions of someone. Everyone, and I repeat everyone in this thread sees what they want to see when it comes to Keenum. Some of us feel like he's the best QB we've had in a long time, while there are others that don't even think he's the best QB on the team. The Head Cases vs the Ted Heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CriminalMind Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Swear, people just want to argue over nothing much and here. Would people feel better if we were a wild card team? The defense is elite to the point that it is far superior then anything in the NFL remotely, and Zimmer even said it's not really sure to his scheme, is cuz of the talent on the feild. When you have the talent you do\don't do on the offense depending on the game situation prolly almost exclusively. Case is a great QB 3rd and under 5, and less good when 3rd and over 5.... Shocker.... And has low sample size... But what if Pat\Zim is risk adverse in that situation knowing the defense will give us another chance, isn't it prudent to try or else wait for another opportunity. We run an offense that is dictated on the score & time remaining on the game, that leads to us not racking up big wins but who cares? We play to protect the ball and live to fight on another series {especially when the game is close or we're winning}. News flash, that's not going to change in the playoffs, that's exactly what will happen. So if we win the first game by 10pts in a 24-14 game and we controlled the game, everyone will be happy except this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDBrocks Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Shut it down, there’s nothing else to talk about. Keenum is the GOAT and this staff is infallable. News flash - you can enjoy the success of the team that you are a fan of AND talk about things that could improve or things that you disagree with. So which narrative is it? Is Keenum aggressive and willing to push the ball, or is it a risk averse conservative offense? Also clearly missing the point on the 3rd down conversation. It isn’t that he is worse, it’s that he is one of the worst in the league. That is sort of shocking when you consider the success rate in 3rd and short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolmonite26 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 hours ago, Purplexing said: Quick! How many of those 3rd & longs were a direct result of penalties, such as holding on 1st or 2nd down, that created 2nd & 15 or 1st & 20? Tick, tock, tick, tock. How does that compare to other teams' QBs 3rd & long situations? If not many of the 3rd & long downs were due to penalties, Shame on Shurmur!, er, um, I meant... Shame on Keenum! Dude, come on! Try again. It's statically irrelevant why they were in the 3rd and long situation when you're talking about not coveting 3rd and long. Factually, Keenum has been very poor at converting 3 and long this season. It mathematically proven. Stipulate all you want, but debating why they're in those situations doesn't seem like a great starting point when you're talking about why they're not converting them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolmonite26 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, JDBrocks said: It isn’t that he is worse, it’s that he is one of the worst in the league. That is sort of shocking when you consider the success rate in 3rd and short. Hmmmmmm go figure when you consistently fail to push the ball downfield, you fail at 3rd and long consistently as well. #elite tho right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klomp Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 hours ago, SemperFeist said: Last I checked 21-7 is more than a one possession game. And we weren’t up 21-7. Read my post again. I think you missed it. Didn't say we were up 21-7, even in the hypothetical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDBrocks Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 hours ago, Purplexing said: New Year. New cherry-picked, statistically non-credible, stat. Also - taking another look at the numbers, his sample size isn’t so small. Comparable to other NFL starters. He’s just plain old not good in 3rd and long situations. No qualification necessary. Please, Arbiter of Credible Statistics, tell me more about cherry-picked and non-credible stats that you haven’t looked at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 22 minutes ago, JDBrocks said: Please, Arbiter of Credible Statistics, tell me more about cherry-picked and non-credible stats that you haven’t looked at. you know, if you throw chum to the sharks, they come back. you know this, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purplexing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 hours ago, JDBrocks said: If you actually want to know, there’s this thing called a search engine. You could use it to find answers to the questions you are asking. Unless you are asking questions that you don’t want to know the answer to.... I'll suggest the latter is the reason you didn't search for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purplexing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 hours ago, JDBrocks said: Also - taking another look at the numbers, his sample size isn’t so small. Comparable to other NFL starters. He’s just plain old not good in 3rd and long situations. No qualification necessary. Please, Arbiter of Credible Statistics, tell me more about cherry-picked and non-credible stats that you haven’t looked at. State the sample size, since you took another look. Why did you first say it wasn't sizeable, but now do? Are you indecisive, or does your reply depend on what I observed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purplexing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 hours ago, vike daddy said: you know, if you throw chum to the sharks, they come back. you know this, right? Stating the obvious, to pad post count while contributing nothing to the discussion. I await a reply with stats showing the actual number of too small, but, in afterthought, not too small, sample size of pass attempts in 3rd & 6 situations, which was allegedly reviewed before the comment was posted. In the meanwhile, you can think up more snarky replies for any other conversation that didn't originally involve you, but which you feel compelled to reply to, for whatever reason. If you think about it, some folks actions aren't perplexing after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purplexing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Years ago, NFL statisticians developing the crude formula for passer rating determined that a credible number of pass attempts to qualify for the record books was 14 attempts per game... over a 16 game season. That implies 14 x 16 = 224 attempts in a season. From that base number of passes in a season can be determined the average number of 3rd & 6 or more pass attempts by an average NFL QB. It is NOT based on 224 attempts times a percentage of passes over 5 yds on 3rd down. The proper number considers the average number of pass attempts by an NFL QB who breaches 224 attempts; i.e. those with less than 224 attempts are censored from the data used to develop a stat for average number of 3rd & 6+ pass attempts. Beyond that framework, the specific QB's pass attempts would be used to determine his relationship to the NFL QB average number for the censored data, culled/ truncated at 224 attempts. Outlier QBs stats (which breach 224 attempts) could be used as is, adjusted per the analyst's judgement, or discarded altogether. Are there any other questions on typical/ proper/ credible sample sizes for 3rd & 6+ attempts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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