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I've always had him as either THE best safety in the league, or close to it. When I put him in top 2 safeties a few months ago, it was met with a few responses saying he wasn't the same player now and/or other safeties (Like Adams, Fitz, Williams etc) have overshadowed him.

I want to ask you if he's the same player as he was at his peak. I guess that was 2017(?) where had the highest ever grade for a S as per PFF, the AllPro, The DPOY nomination etc.

I guess it will be easy to just say no he's not AS good, and there's obviously an expected regression toward mean, but I still see that same player. I think his coverage skills and disguise skills haven't deteriorated at all, his closing speed looks the same, and his intelligence is still elite. 

So from those that know, do you think he's still at his peak? And do you say he's the best safety in the league? 

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17 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

I've always had him as either THE best safety in the league, or close to it. When I put him in top 2 safeties a few months ago, it was met with a few responses saying he wasn't the same player now and/or other safeties (Like Adams, Fitz, Williams etc) have overshadowed him.

I want to ask you if he's the same player as he was at his peak. I guess that was 2017(?) where had the highest ever grade for a S as per PFF, the AllPro, The DPOY nomination etc.

I guess it will be easy to just say no he's not AS good, and there's obviously an expected regression toward mean, but I still see that same player. I think his coverage skills and disguise skills haven't deteriorated at all, his closing speed looks the same, and his intelligence is still elite. 

So from those that know, do you think he's still at his peak? And do you say he's the best safety in the league? 

Yes, he’s the same player. He hasn’t looked as dominant the past 2 seasons because of the amount of time he’s had to spend covering up bad corner play. 

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I'm not sure what those people are seeing to think that he's dropped from his peak and those others have surpassed him.  

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3 hours ago, JDBrocks said:

Yes, he’s the same player. He hasn’t looked as dominant the past 2 seasons because of the amount of time he’s had to spend covering up bad corner play. 

I agree with this.  Harrison needed to play further away from the line of scrimmage to support bad cornerbacks.  He is so good when he is on or near the line of scrimmage...it always puts a slight doubt in the quarterbacks mind..."is he coming?"  When the quarterback is forced to ask that question, Harrison Smith has already won.

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He has lost a bit of a step, but that only shows up on a rare mental mistake when he has to recover.  He's still the player that opposing OC/QB's worry about on any given play.

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Yeah he’s still playing at an elite level and I expect his game to age well. His long speed and explosiveness were never strong suits but he’s very cerebral, is strong and has good short-area quickness which makes me think he’ll still play at an elite level in a role more in the box even as he ages.

i think it’s pretty telling that when we had a huge cap crunch this offseason, his contract with $2 million dead money/$8 million cap savings was never even mentioned as a possibility of getting restructured or cut. 

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10 hours ago, whitehops said:

Yeah he’s still playing at an elite level and I expect his game to age well. His long speed and explosiveness were never strong suits but he’s very cerebral, is strong and has good short-area quickness which makes me think he’ll still play at an elite level in a role more in the box even as he ages.

i think it’s pretty telling that when we had a huge cap crunch this offseason, his contract with $2 million dead money/$8 million cap savings was never even mentioned as a possibility of getting restructured or cut. 

I think his intelligence might be his strongest attribute, and that doesn't ever leave a player. Speed and explosiveness goes, but I bet he confuses the hell out of QBs. You always see him align with a receiver or TE, and time his blast to the QB really well - the disgusing etc. That will obviously never go, but it does rely on his speed burst.

18 hours ago, swede700 said:

I'm not sure what those people are seeing to think that he's dropped from his peak and those others have surpassed him.  

Same. Maybe it's just that now there's a few really good young safeties in the league, but they don't surpass HS for me. He was unanimous a few seasons ago, but I bet now if I created a top 5 safety thread, a lot of posters would have him toward the bottom of the 5

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Posted (edited)

Whatever Smith is being paid is determined by Ten Pick Rick and Brzezinski, and is based on an average value of his contribution to the team over the entire term.  Of course, his salary varies by season, partly reflecting his expected contributions each year.  So, if his performance declines, that doesn't invalidate the contract terms.  If his performance declines more than expected, the contract may be changed or dropped by the team.  

All that said, raw stats for HS are important, but do no reflect his entire contribution to the team.  Stats do not reflect his influence as a leader, as a teacher, as an unofficial coach, and as a member of the community.  And therefore, some of the posters who use stats to suggest changes to his contract or status will be frustrated when Rick Ten Pick doesn't comply. 

Finally, 'elite' status is an elusive term.   I don't believe any team can retain multiple 'elite' players in the commonly used sense.  But a particular player can have an 'elite' status relative to his teammates.  When that happens, some fans do not understand the team retaining them beyond the point their stats decline.  Recent examples of this include Greenway, Kleinsasser, Rudolph, and Sherrels.    

Edited by Purplexing
added 'Rudolph'
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In 2019, I saw a slight, but noticeable decline in Harrison's play.  It wasn't very much, but there were a few plays where he wasn't in the perfect position we have come to expect from him.  This is a very unscientific way of doing it, but the graph below shows where I would consider Harrison to be in 2020 compared to his peak, which as others have said, was probably in 2017.  Take this for what it's worth.

vtKyWqW.jpg

 

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8 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

In 2019, I saw a slight, but noticeable decline in Harrison's play.  It wasn't very much, but there were a few plays where he wasn't in the perfect position we have come to expect from him.  This is a very unscientific way of doing it, but the graph below shows where I would consider Harrison to be in 2020 compared to his peak, which as others have said, was probably in 2017.  Take this for what it's worth.

vtKyWqW.jpg

 

That graph is outstanding and illustrates your point perfectly! xD

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Just now, TENINCH said:

That graph is outstanding and illustrates your point perfectly! xD

Thanks.  I spent a long time working on it.  xD 

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1 minute ago, Uncle Buck said:

Thanks.  I spent a long time working on it.  xD 

It shows your hard work and dedication!

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On 6/5/2020 at 10:14 AM, Uncle Buck said:

Thanks.  I spent a long time working on it.  xD 

Everyone's a statistician 'til Uncle Buck pulls up MS Paint.

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