Which QB would you want?

[Vorsutus]

Trevor and burrow look like some of the best prospects in years but going for unknown talent is always hard 2 do and as bad as wentz has been with injuries he is better than dax or murray at this point.

[Daniel]

I can't believe Kyler is in second place right now.  All the uncertainty of Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow without all that pesky "generational prospect" buzz.  Silliness.

15 hours ago, $andtrap said:

A guy that hasn't even done a single practice with a professional team should be the first choice?

See previous, but short answer is yes.

16 hours ago, Daniel said:

Now if you're really high on Wentz despite his injury history, or really high on Dak for...reasons, then it makes more sense.  But Lawrence is a stellar prospect, who projects to be far better than either of them, and is as complete a prospect as we've had since Andrew Luck.

 

[ET80]

Trevor Lawrence. I sort of randomly selected the rest.

[SpacemanSpiff]

Sam Bradford is a great example of why I'm not picking Trevor. Dude was supposed to be the man coming out. First overall pick. So good that the team handed him 50 million guaranteed on his rookie deal without the man playing a snap in the NFL. Where do we rank Sam Bradford's career? Dude's nowhere. 2014's No. 1 and No. 2 overall selections are both backups right now. 

History is littered with examples of guys everyone thought were surefire winners who didn't pan out that way. I get that Trevor looks incredible and the transition to the pros is being made easier and easier for college QBs, but I'm sorry. You're never going to convince me that it's the smarter play (WITHOUT MONEY BEING IN THE EQUATION) to bet on Trevor Lawrence over a guy like Dak who has proved he can produce in the league. And most GMs probably would tell you the same thing. There's a reason you don't see teams trade franchise QBs for No. 1 overall on a yearly basis. However, if we're putting salary cap into the equation and factoring in the money Dak wants and making it less of a "Who would you rather have in a vacuum" situation and more of a "Who would you rather have if factoring in cost" then I would say Trevor because I don't believe in paying QBs the money they're getting. 

[ClutchDJ]

22 hours ago, Daniel said:

How is Lawrence not everyone's obvious first choice?  Yall are nuts.

Probably because Trevor didn’t live up to this Godly potential people portrayed him as last season. That showed a bit against Ohio State & especially against LSU.

 

 

As for my answer, it’s:

 

Kyler > Trevor > Wentz > Burrow > Dak for me.

[Breesus mode]

Dak is a top 7 QB??

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, Breesus mode said:

Dak is a top 7 QB??

No, but you could make the case that in a fantasy draft style setting he'd go that high. He's 26 years old. The age matters in that type of situation. 

[Breesus mode]

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

No, but you could make the case that in a fantasy draft style setting he'd go that high. He's 26 years old. The age matters in that type of situation. 

So, top 7 by default?

[BleedTheClock]

@SpacemanSpiff, you do know not all #1 overall picks have the same talent level, right? Are you comparing Sam Bradford and Trevor Lawrence to each other as prospects?

I need to just stop posting in NFL General. 

[Daniel]

2 hours ago, SpacemanSpiff said:

Sam Bradford is a great example of why I'm not picking Trevor. Dude was supposed to be the man coming out. First overall pick. So good that the team handed him 50 million guaranteed on his rookie deal without the man playing a snap in the NFL. Where do we rank Sam Bradford's career? Dude's nowhere. 2014's No. 1 and No. 2 overall selections are both backups right now. 

History is littered with examples of guys everyone thought were surefire winners who didn't pan out that way. I get that Trevor looks incredible and the transition to the pros is being made easier and easier for college QBs, but I'm sorry. You're never going to convince me that it's the smarter play (WITHOUT MONEY BEING IN THE EQUATION) to bet on Trevor Lawrence over a guy like Dak who has proved he can produce in the league. And most GMs probably would tell you the same thing. There's a reason you don't see teams trade franchise QBs for No. 1 overall on a yearly basis. However, if we're putting salary cap into the equation and factoring in the money Dak wants and making it less of a "Who would you rather have in a vacuum" situation and more of a "Who would you rather have if factoring in cost" then I would say Trevor because I don't believe in paying QBs the money they're getting. 

Lol

Bradford wasn't even close to Lawrence, neither in quality as a prospect nor perception as a prospect.  Lots of people thought that Ndamukong Suh should be the first overall pick, specifically because Bradford wasn't that great.  He even had an injury to boot.

If you're gonna find a guy who compares to Lawrence and didn't blow up, about the only comparison is Luck, who was squandered by idiot GMs and retired early after being one of the league's best QBs for most of his non-injured career.

I get that there is uncertainty as to how Lawrence will pan out, but uncertainty's existence isn't a high bar.  There's uncertainty at some level with even vet QBs that have "proven they can do it."  Again, I'll repeat that Wentz is an acceptable answer, and is Dak, if you're high on their abilities.  If it's literally just "any mediocre QB is better than a college prospect, no matter how good," then that's just plain bad reasoning.

And I still need someone to explain how Kyler isn't the worst option here.  Not the prospect that either Burrow or Lawrence are, and hasn't proven anything, like Dak and Wentz.

[Forge]

16 minutes ago, Breesus mode said:

So, top 7 by default?

Almost lol. It also depends on some people's own preferences. There are only 5 that I think are a lock to go ahead of him (or very close), Mahomes / Watson / Wilson / Murray / Jackson. 

I think if you are doing the fantasy style draft, you're probably taking Dak over the older guys who may be better quarterbacks like Brees, Rodgers, etc. Matt Ryan will be 36 this year, so I think he falls into that category as well. So Brees / Brady / Rodgers / Ryan / Rivers (isn't better, just adding him into the old guy category). 

There are a few starting quarterbacks younger, but I don't think that the leftovers who weren't on the initial list have done enough at the NFL level to warrant being picked ahead of him, especially if you're talking a level surface. Josh Allen / Sam Darnold / Baker...I'm sure that they will get some votes from some people on spec, but I don't think that they have done enough to appear better. Daniel Jones? Haskins? Lock? Probably the same, though I'm sure that fans of their own teams will trumpet their guys first and foremost. So I do think that some of these guys will get some "votes" ahead of Dak, and maybe it depends on if one of them is actually picking at 6 or 7, but I think the odds favor Dak if you were to do a polling. 

Then you have a large swath of players who are in that age group, but just aren't as good. Jimmy G? I'll take Dak. Tannehill? A little older, one half year legit "very good" production...I'll take Dak. Minshew? Not a contest. Derek Carr? Pass. Tyrod? Nope. Foles / Trubs? Goff? I'll take Dak over Goff. Teddy B?

Then you have the guys that I think would be an interesting conversation, but Dak may get a bump because of one thing or another? Wentz is a very good player. Can't stay healthy. That's a problem that may lead me to take Dak. Cousins and Stafford are both quality starters, and I think Stafford in particular is underrated. They are both heading into their age 32 seasons as well. So that 6 year difference is considerable. 

And then you get the even younger guys like  Burrow and Tua and Herbert. Would you take them over Dak? Again, I am sure some would based on spec, but that's a risk. They haven't played a game yet. I'm sure some definitely would. 

[Forge]

Side note, doing a one round fantasy draft type situation in the comparisons forum like goldfish does for the nfl draft during draft season could actually be a lot of fun. 

[Johnthejetsfan]

For me, this one its Kyler -> Lawrence -> Burrow

I just have Kyler above Lawrence because of his 1 year NFL experience but could go either way. I take Burrow over Wentz due to injury concerns. 

The less said about Dak, the better 

[theJ]

14 minutes ago, Forge said:

Almost lol. It also depends on some people's own preferences. There are only 5 that I think are a lock to go ahead of him (or very close), Mahomes / Watson / Wilson / Murray / Jackson. 

I think if you are doing the fantasy style draft, you're probably taking Dak over the older guys who may be better quarterbacks like Brees, Rodgers, etc. Matt Ryan will be 36 this year, so I think he falls into that category as well. So Brees / Brady / Rodgers / Ryan / Rivers (isn't better, just adding him into the old guy category). 

There are a few starting quarterbacks younger, but I don't think that the leftovers who weren't on the initial list have done enough at the NFL level to warrant being picked ahead of him, especially if you're talking a level surface. Josh Allen / Sam Darnold / Baker...I'm sure that they will get some votes from some people on spec, but I don't think that they have done enough to appear better. Daniel Jones? Haskins? Lock? Probably the same, though I'm sure that fans of their own teams will trumpet their guys first and foremost. So I do think that some of these guys will get some "votes" ahead of Dak, and maybe it depends on if one of them is actually picking at 6 or 7, but I think the odds favor Dak if you were to do a polling. 

Then you have a large swath of players who are in that age group, but just aren't as good. Jimmy G? I'll take Dak. Tannehill? A little older, one half year legit "very good" production...I'll take Dak. Minshew? Not a contest. Derek Carr? Pass. Tyrod? Nope. Foles / Trubs? Goff? I'll take Dak over Goff. Teddy B?

Then you have the guys that I think would be an interesting conversation, but Dak may get a bump because of one thing or another? Wentz is a very good player. Can't stay healthy. That's a problem that may lead me to take Dak. Cousins and Stafford are both quality starters, and I think Stafford in particular is underrated. They are both heading into their age 32 seasons as well. So that 6 year difference is considerable. 

And then you get the even younger guys like  Burrow and Tua and Herbert. Would you take them over Dak? Again, I am sure some would based on spec, but that's a risk. They haven't played a game yet. I'm sure some definitely would. 

Even more affecting this scenario would be if we assume that teams staff's retain their memories of "their guys", and what order they pick in.  Because if the Eagles pick before #7, after those top 5 are gone (and maybe even just Mahomes, Watson, Jackson and Wilson), they're almost certainly going to take Wentz before Dak.  He's their guy.  Same with the Bengals - if they picked #6 or so, they're probably going to go with Burrow before Dak because they have a comfort level with him that they don't with Dak.

Also, you're going to have some oddball teams taking other positions before QB, and it would probably be sooner than you think.  Teams like SF, who probably feel they can win with lesser QB's and would prefer to have a big advantage at other positions.

So yeah, it's not really cut and dried.

[Forge]

6 minutes ago, theJ said:

Even more affecting this scenario would be if we assume that teams staff's retain their memories of "their guys", and what order they pick in.  Because if the Eagles pick before #7, after those top 5 are gone (and maybe even just Mahomes, Watson, Jackson and Wilson), they're almost certainly going to take Wentz before Dak.  He's their guy.  Same with the Bengals - if they picked #6 or so, they're probably going to go with Burrow before Dak because they have a comfort level with him that they don't with Dak.

Also, you're going to have some oddball teams taking other positions before QB, and it would probably be sooner than you think.  Teams like SF, who probably feel they can win with lesser QB's and would prefer to have a big advantage at other positions.

So yeah, it's not really cut and dried.

Absolutely. 

Which leads to another fun question of how many quarterbacks are off the board before you elect to go with a HC to hope they can milk success out of a largely "meh" / average type quarterback (if HC's are included in said fantasy draft).