2020 Busts

[JonStark]

2 minutes ago, GordyTheGoffer said:

I explained some place but cant find it. Goff's best ability is his deep pass. I'm a fan. His deep pass is up there with the best. However the RAMs are short on speed this season after Cooks went to Texas. Through the WR, RB & TE groups they have middling speed at best. They seem to be going with the logic that if you have great route runners you don't need speed. Maybe that works, maybe it does not but every year we see teams lack offensive ability because a team lacks deep speed. It allows the secondary to squeeze up and take away the underneath and that allows the pass rush to pin back their ears and attack more. The Rams don't have the O line for that, well not that we know of from last year anyway. This is speculation thread, I'm speculating only but hopefully that explains it fella.

That's actually fair enough. Although as the 17th QB off the board, I can't see him finishing much worse than that to be considered a bust. 

[GordyTheGoffer]

I really want him to do well, great throwing motion but I was concerned by the PFF article re his poor % on secondary reads. On the positive side I thought he looked great at the tail end of last season when he was throwing on the move a lot more.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 hour ago, GordyTheGoffer said:

I really want him to do well, great throwing motion but I was concerned by the PFF article re his poor % on secondary reads. On the positive side I thought he looked great at the tail end of last season when he was throwing on the move a lot more.

Yea he had a solid last 5 games(2 sub 20 point ones though and 2 of the good ones were vs Arizona) but I think a huge part of that was Higbee too

[JaguarCrazy2832]

I feel like I'm missing something seeing Alvin Kamara as a Top-5 fantasy RB(in Non-PPR mind you) I dont even think on draft day he is a Top-10 overall pick on my board. Maybe 2019 was a fluke but his TDs are low, carries are really low for a 1st rounder and his YPR have been dropping

[GordyTheGoffer]

3 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Yea he had a solid last 5 games(2 sub 20 point ones though and 2 of the good ones were vs Arizona) but I think a huge part of that was Higbee too

Yeh Higbee was looked like a star in the making end of last season

[HoboRocket]

26 minutes ago, GordyTheGoffer said:

Yeh Higbee was looked like a star in the making end of last season

 

On 7/5/2020 at 4:22 PM, HoboRocket said:

I mean, in Higbee's last 5 games, he had 48 receptions for 502 yards. Over Michael Thomas' last 5 games, he had 45 receptions for 483 yards. Over George Kittle's last 5 games, he had 33 receptions for 383 yards. Travis Kelce had 34 receptions for 396 yards over his last five games. Over DeAndre Hopkins' last five games, he had 29 receptions for 420 yards. Over Julio Jones's last 5 games, he had 40 receptions for 509 yards. Over Dallas Goedert's last 5 games, he had 27 receptions for 318 yards. 🍺

So, over his last 5 games, Rams TE Tyler Higbee outproduced:

Record-setting All-Pro WR Michael Thomas 

All-Pro WR DeAndre Hopkins

All-Pro TE Travis Kelce

All-Pro TE George Kittle

He had 8 more receptions than All-Pro WR Julio Jones, and only 7 less yards. Julio was the league's yardage leader over that span, BTW. 

So, uh... Lil' Baby Gronk has awakened, and he will to steal your defense's soul.

 

[Forge]

I'm not going to call this flat out bust type guys, but these are guys I'm fading because I don't think that they'll live up to their ADP. 

1. Deandre Hopkins. @N4L will tell you that I'm completely out on him this year. Nope nope nope. Dude is going as WR2 / WR3 and a fringe first round pick (on ESPN, his adp has recently slightly dropped to pick 12). That's insane. I'm not touching him before round 3 this year. 

2. Jonathan Taylor. I didn't get the love as a prospect, and I don't get the love from a fantasy perspective. He's going as high as RB15 on some sites. RB15! What in the world are people doing? ESPN has him a little better at RB23, overall pick 67. Still too high for me. So lets start with the historical stuff - day 2 rookie running backs do not have a good history fantasy wise their rookie season. But someone explain to me why you'd take Taylor where he's going as opposed to Mostert two or three rounds later? Awesome running blocking offensive line? Check & check for both. Splitting running down carries? Yeah, they both are. Marlon Mack is not going away. Lack of passing game contribution? Check and Check. Hines will get the passing down work in Indy, Jet in SF. Ball security issues? Check and check. They both fumble the ball. Mostert led the league last year in percentage of runs over 5 yards and 10 yards (17% on the latter, I believe). He scored 12 touchdowns in his last 9 games last year (including playoffs). #1 in RB dvoa by a huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge margin (the distance between he and #2 was the same as #2 and #7 almost) ,and with the 49ers, on 178 carries, the dude has averaged 6 yards a carry. That's not a huge sample size, but it's not tiny. So why are people gambling on Taylor 2 rounds and 20 spots higher? It's the same circumstance, and one has at least some track record of success in the NFL. 

3. Deebo Samuel. Yeah, just let this one go. It's not a big deal considering where he's going (between 85-95, wr4 territory), but the thing is, Jones fractures are highly likely to heal improperly or re-fracture, he may start the season on pup...there's really no reason to draft him. My guess is that he ends up on the waiver wire at some point. I'd rather shoot for the moon with Will Fuller in a similar spot, or even just grab Edelman. 

4. Almost all round 3/4 running backs. Seriously.  There is just nothing here that is enticing over the receivers at all. Your goal should be to go RB / RB, but even if you're forced to go elsewhere with one of those two picks, I'd still make rounds 3/4 about non RB positions and come back in round 5 and grab someone like James Connor or wait a few more rounds and grab Mostert to pair with some other young upside plays like Akers to compete at RB2. Your round 3/4 running backs include maybe Fournette, Gurley, Carson, Lev Bell and David Johnson. Your round 3/4 wide receivers? Golloday, Thielen, Juju, Dj  Moore, Allen Robinson, OBJ, Amari Cooper, etc. To me, this isn't even a question. Those runnings have limited upside in almost every case - they are high volume low efficiency types in my opinion. I think your team is much stronger  this way. 

5. Antonio Gibson. He's still not going super high, and if his ADP stays where its at, it's not the worst thing to gamble on, but I Think people are going to reach on him and his ADP will go up the closer we get to the season.  He's never going to get the volume in my opinion. In his area, there are even still guys that I'd rather gamble on like Damien Harris. Hell, Mattison is only going 4 picks before him, so if you have the choice, I'd definitely take Mattison. 

6. Gronk. Espn has him going in the 6th round right now in PPR. Waaaaaaaaaaaaay too early for me. I'm a subscriber to the first / last thing on tight ends, but I do think that there is some value in the late middle round at TE. Hunter Henry is going barely inside the top 10 at TE, just inside the top 100 overall, 3-4 rounds later, and I'd much rather take him at his position than Gronk. 

I have more, I'm sure, and I'll probably add to the list as we get closer. 

[101Raider]

Nick Chubb I think disappoints drafters. I think Hunt significantly cuts into his touches this year and is why Hunt is going to be on all my teams.

Henry is another I’m avoiding at ADP. Doesn’t catch passes means he has to repeat as the rushing champion to provide value. Downgraded to his o-line does not help his chances.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

17 hours ago, Forge said:

I'm not going to call this flat out bust type guys, but these are guys I'm fading because I don't think that they'll live up to their ADP.

4. Almost all round 3/4 running backs. Seriously.  There is just nothing here that is enticing over the receivers at all. Your goal should be to go RB / RB, but even if you're forced to go elsewhere with one of those two picks, I'd still make rounds 3/4 about non RB positions and come back in round 5 and grab someone like James Connor or wait a few more rounds and grab Mostert to pair with some other young upside plays like Akers to compete at RB2. Your round 3/4 running backs include maybe Fournette, Gurley, Carson, Lev Bell and David Johnson. Your round 3/4 wide receivers? Golloday, Thielen, Juju, Dj  Moore, Allen Robinson, OBJ, Amari Cooper, etc. To me, this isn't even a question. Those runnings have limited upside in almost every case - they are high volume low efficiency types in my opinion. I think your team is much stronger  this way. 

PREACH, only RB on that list I'd take is Carson but that alone is why going RB-RB is so important, or at least not having to draft a WR that early

Also, I think Hopkins round 3 is a stretch but its nbd because its not like he's falling that far either. I'm not tempted to take him Top-20

Edited August 23, 2020 by JaguarCrazy2832

[Forge]

4 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Also, I think Hopkins round 3 is a stretch but its nbd because its not like he's falling that far either. I'm not tempted to take him Top-20

The thing about Hopkins is, where do you expect him to finish? If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say that he ends up somewhere between WR5 and WR10 (he was WR5 last year in ppr).  I actually think that there's a better chance that he finishes outside the top 10 then there is he finishes within the top 5, though I don't find either likely. But you know who else I think is going to finish between wr6-10? Allen Robinson. He's going in the fourth round. Finished WR8 last year in PPR. Golloday finished WR9 last year with David Blough throwing him the football. He's going in the third round on espn in ppr leagues. Amari Cooper was WR10, he's going in the third round. 

With where I expect Hopkins to finish, his value is third round in my opinion. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

9 minutes ago, Forge said:

The thing about Hopkins is, where do you expect him to finish? If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say that he ends up somewhere between WR5 and WR10 (he was WR5 last year in ppr).  I actually think that there's a better chance that he finishes outside the top 10 then there is he finishes within the top 5, though I don't find either likely. But you know who else I think is going to finish between wr6-10? Allen Robinson. He's going in the fourth round. Finished WR8 last year in PPR. Golloday finished WR9 last year with David Blough throwing him the football. He's going in the third round on espn in ppr leagues. Amari Cooper was WR10, he's going in the third round. 

With where I expect Hopkins to finish, his value is third round in my opinion. 

You dont have to tell my how underrated A-Rob and Kenny G are in fantasy...just hoping my league mates dont know lol

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

You dont have to tell my how underrated A-Rob and Kenny G are in fantasy...just hoping my league mates dont know lol

I tried to push A-Rob on @N4L  hard when talking about his team with him lol. 

[BoltsFan937]

I’m going Joe Mixon as my bust/player to avoid.  I had him last year and benched him halfway through for Miles Sanders and some weeks Montgomery.  A few reasons, Bengals oline was terrible and I don’t see much improvement this year, oh they see Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice, they get blown out early and throw the ball a ton. He’s a talented player no doubt, but I’m avoiding that situation in Cincinnati 

[N4L]

On 8/22/2020 at 12:01 PM, Forge said:

Almost all round 3/4 running backs. Seriously.  There is just nothing here that is enticing over the receivers at all. Your goal should be to go RB / RB, but even if you're forced to go elsewhere with one of those two picks, I'd still make rounds 3/4 about non RB positions and come back in round 5 and grab someone like James Connor or wait a few more rounds and grab Mostert to pair with some other young upside plays like Akers to compete at RB2. Your round 3/4 running backs include maybe Fournette, Gurley, Carson, Lev Bell and David Johnson. Your round 3/4 wide receivers? Golloday, Thielen, Juju, Dj  Moore, Allen Robinson, OBJ, Amari Cooper, etc. To me, this isn't even a question. Those runnings have limited upside in almost every case - they are high volume low efficiency types in my opinion. I think your team is much stronger  this way. 

As someone who is picking #1 overall in a 10 team league (.5ppr) you're saying I should take a RB in the second and then a WR with the first pick in round 3? Or do I go WR/WR there and then take a stab at a few runners in the 5/6/7th rounds? 

Which WR should I be targeting there at the turn of the 2/3rd? Feels like I will have my pick of the second tier of WRs at that spot 

Obviously depends on how the board falls but I'm curious to hear exactly where those lines are for you 

 

PS, I also have Lamar Jackson as a keeper in that league (for an 11th!) So I am considering going kittle at the turn to have the best QB, best TE, and best RB in fantasy

[JaguarCrazy2832]

15 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

I’m going Joe Mixon as my bust/player to avoid.  I had him last year and benched him halfway through for Miles Sanders and some weeks Montgomery.  A few reasons, Bengals oline was terrible and I don’t see much improvement this year, oh they see Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice, they get blown out early and throw the ball a ton. He’s a talented player no doubt, but I’m avoiding that situation in Cincinnati 

Mixon was so frustrating in the 1st half of the year but his 2nd half numbers were good enough to make me not worry so much about him