MVP Watch FINAL RANKINGS (Version 17.0)

[JAF-N72EX]

On 11/18/2020 at 3:47 PM, BayRaider said:

I mean dating back to 2002, the NFL and I have never disagreed on the MVP winner. Plus I'm not just using stats.

Then what else are you basing it on? Are you watching every QB/team?

Edit: I still respect the effort but the method seems very flawed.

Edited November 24, 2020 by JAF-N72EX

[BayRaider]

20 minutes ago, Archimedes said:

It’s basically Mahomes, Rodgers, and Wilson, in that order. Rodgers is still within striking distance, Wilson has fallen a bit behind and will have a hard time catching the other two IMO. Nobody else is close enough to those top 3 to merit a mention.

Still a lot of season left. For all we know, the Colts win out and go 13-3 while Rivers goes 4-0 every game. That's obviously really unlikely, but even people not on this list still have an extremely slim shot is the point I'm trying to make.

I think after Week 13, things will really tighten.

Edited November 24, 2020 by BayRaider

[DannyB]

11 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

For all we know, the Colts win out and go 13-3 while Rivers goes 4-0 every game

No.

In fact, it's precisely BECAUSE we know what we know about this game, that we can say with absolute safety that he WON'T do that.

[BayRaider]

Just now, DannyB said:

No.

In fact, it's precisely BECAUSE we know what we know about this game, that we can say with absolute safety that he WON'T do that.

Obviously the odds of him doing that are like less than 1%, just saying it's too early to say this is a three man race. Anyone on this list still easily has a shot. And even people off of it have a very slim shot. It'll start getting tight in a couple weeks.

[DannyB]

6 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Obviously the odds of him doing that are like less than 1%

Again, no.

The odds of winning the Powerball are "less than 1%". The odds of minotaurs actually being real are "less than 1%".

Philip Rivers going 6 consecutive games throwing for 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions is impossible.

[Archimedes]

8 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Obviously the odds of him doing that are like less than 1%, just saying it's too early to say this is a three man race. Anyone on this list still easily has a shot. And even people off of it have a very slim shot. It'll start getting tight in a couple weeks.

It’s most definitely a 3 man race at this point in time. If we’re talking about a late surge by someone then let’s at least be realistic. There’s only 6 games to go in the season. The only player I can think of who made a strong MVP push this deep into the season was Rodgers in 2016 when he for 1600+ yards, 16 TDS and no picks in his final 6 games. 

So that’s once in my lifetime, by a generational talent, and he still fell short in the MVP race. There’s no reason to consider someone if their only hope of even getting in the MVP race is repeating something that happens once in a blue moon.

[BlaqOptic]

It's never been about 16-0 but at this point I literally want to see the Steelers go 16-0 just because it would be hilarious to explain 20 years from now how an undefeated team didn't have a single award winner.

[Archimedes]

29 minutes ago, BlaqOptic said:

It's never been about 16-0 but at this point I literally want to see the Steelers go 16-0 just because it would be hilarious to explain 20 years from now how an undefeated team didn't have a single award winner.

The way people wonder about the 72 Dolphins not having an award winner?

[ET80]

5 hours ago, DannyB said:

Philip Rivers going 6 consecutive games throwing for 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions is impossible.

Incorrect. It's improbable, sure. Highly unlikely, yeah. But... not impossible. 

The odds are better than zero percent. Maybe not by much, but it's there.

[UncleAdamz]

6 hours ago, DannyB said:

Philip Rivers going 6 consecutive games throwing for 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions is impossible.

I'll bet my $0 against your $1,000,000 that this happens.

 

Also, obviously biased, but I think 4 - 5 - 6 should be Tannehill, Murray, Allen.

[DannyB]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Incorrect. It's improbable, sure. Highly unlikely, yeah. But... not impossible. 

The odds are better than zero percent. Maybe not by much, but it's there.

Okay, here's the point though: of course I LITERALLY know that. But it's such a ridiculous hypothetical that it's useless to discuss, and it bogs down the conversation by proffering up such nonsense. If that's the benchmark necessary for Rivers to enter the mvp conversation, then just don't bring it up because it's a waste of time.

[DannyB]

1 hour ago, UncleAdamz said:

I'll bet my $0 against your $1,000,000 that this happens.

 

Also, obviously biased, but I think 4 - 5 - 6 should be Tannehill, Murray, Allen.

I would take that bet just to prove my effing point.

And that's not a ridiculous 4 5 6, but I disagree. Tanny has come back to earth a bit this year, and the best compliment I can give Josh Allen is that he's so damn talented that he's generally been able to win games this year despite being on a team that is being quarterbacked by Josh Allen.

[ET80]

7 minutes ago, DannyB said:

Okay, here's the point though: of course I LITERALLY know that. But it's such a ridiculous hypothetical that it's useless to discuss, and it bogs down the conversation by proffering up such nonsense. If that's the benchmark necessary for Rivers to enter the mvp conversation, then just don't bring it up because it's a waste of time.

Those specific parameters, sure. But MVP is (and has always been) very abstract in nature. If the Colts finish 6-0 (which is on the table - including a W against an undefeated Steelers) and Phillip Rivers plays some stellar football (with a few INTs, but he's clearly the catalyst to a huge run in Indy) you'd be foolish to not include him in the discussion. 

The Colts were not a good Football team last year... and are now pushing around to a top 3 AFC finish. Only significant change was Brissett to Rivers, so we know who is responsible for the turn of events.

[BarnettOSU]

If you’re going to have rushing stats for everyone else. You should add Rodgers even though it isn’t a lot. 17 rushes for 78 yards and 1 TD. 

[BayRaider]

11 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Then what else are you basing it on? Are you watching every QB/team?

Edit: I still respect the effort but the method seems very flawed.

Yes I am watching everything, have Gamepass and Sunday Ticket. 
 

As for my “method”, creating a “method” will be the thing that actually makes this flawed. Look at PFF and other sites. Exact strict formulas are flawed. 
 

For MVP you need a winning record, at least 11-5 for a QB, and 10-6 for a non QB, I value YPA (which is consistent with history), I value TD-INT Ratio (MVP has always mostly been an efficiency award over bulk stats), and I value other areas such as COMP, and also take Rushing into play if they are having a season like Lamar last year and Kyler this year. 
 

I also take into account on field ability, such as Brees numbers have been MVP level all year, but I didn’t include him until the past few weeks when he started pushing the ball down the field every game. 
 

At the end of the day, this is still just an opinion list. Although I still haven’t disagreed with the NFL on an MVP winner yet. Have disagreed with DPOY and ROTY more than once. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by BayRaider