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MVP Watch FINAL RANKINGS (Version 17.0)


BayRaider

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7 hours ago, BlaqOptic said:

It's never been about 16-0 but at this point I literally want to see the Steelers go 16-0 just because it would be hilarious to explain 20 years from now how an undefeated team didn't have a single award winner.

Surely Mike Tomlin would deservedly win coach of the year then though?? Unless they crash out of the playoffs in a big upset I suppose. 

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5 minutes ago, Blackstar12 said:

Mahomes is going to put some distance between him and the rest after he shreds that overrated Bucs D.

That’s going to be a fun game, and a “possible” Super Bowl preview. 

4 minutes ago, Darbsk said:

Surely Mike Tomlin would deservedly win coach of the year then though?? Unless they crash out of the playoffs in a big upset I suppose. 

Yeah I think 16-0 is auto-win for COTY. And we’ll have to compare how Ben looks compared to others for MVP, but 16-0 shoots him up to Top 4 at an absolute bare minimum. 
 

Also Claypool is in the mix for ROTY. Not sure anyone will catch Herbert but Claypool and Jefferson are the next two in line after Burrow’s injury. 

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9 hours ago, ET80 said:

Those specific parameters, sure. But MVP is (and has always been) very abstract in nature. If the Colts finish 6-0 (which is on the table - including a W against an undefeated Steelers) and Phillip Rivers plays some stellar football (with a few INTs, but he's clearly the catalyst to a huge run in Indy) you'd be foolish to not include him in the discussion. 

The Colts were not a good Football team last year... and are now pushing around to a top 3 AFC finish. Only significant change was Brissett to Rivers, so we know who is responsible for the turn of events.

So, at least when thinking about the past decade or so of MVP awards, here's my conclusion:

You can pull ahead and clinch it over the second half/stretch run of the season, and you can be one of the front-runners and lose it down the stretch...but you have to at least be in the conversation at about the halfway point. Guys like Derrick Henry, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Tom Brady are at least somewhere within the gravitational pull of the MVP conversation.

Rivers isn't at ALL. His numbers just aren't gonna do it, and too many other players on playoff-bound teams are doing so much better. And the Colts aren't winning at a super impressive clip. They're not undefeated, and Rivers hasn't had a big spotlight game like beating the Chiefs in primetime by outdueling Mahomes or anything. It's just not happening.

If he continues at his current TD pace, there are 5 quarterbacks who could literally sit in street clothes on the sidelines with their thumbs up their ***** for the entire rest of the season and Rivers still wouldn't catch them.

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4 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

even at 15-1 he’d win it I think 

Agreed. I think 16-0/15-1 are basically auto-wins.

I disagreed with Harbaugh last year though. I thought Kyle Shanahan should of got it. Only a one win difference, and Shanahan improved that Niner team way more than Harbaugh improved the Ravens. I was quite surprised with the selection, and disagreed fully. Harbaugh would of been my close runner up for sure though.

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2 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Agreed. I think 16-0/15-1 are basically auto-wins.

I disagreed with Harbaugh last year though. I thought Kyle Shanahan should of got it. Only a one win difference, and Shanahan improved that Niner team way more than Harbaugh improved the Ravens. I was quite surprised with the selection, and disagreed fully. Harbaugh would of been my close runner up for sure though.

I still say Flores should have won last year

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58 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Agreed. I think 16-0/15-1 are basically auto-wins.

I disagreed with Harbaugh last year though. I thought Kyle Shanahan should of got it. Only a one win difference, and Shanahan improved that Niner team way more than Harbaugh improved the Ravens. I was quite surprised with the selection, and disagreed fully. Harbaugh would of been my close runner up for sure though.

Now if Andy wins out how does he win it?

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12 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

Now if Andy wins out how does he win it?

Tough one if they both finish 15-1. I’d honestly probably give it to Tomlin if they both were 14-2 or 15-1 due to the improvement. But if Reid finishes with a better record than the Steelers, I’d give it to Reid. 
 

Dark horses would be Kliff Kingsbury, Sean Payton, and Frank Reich. 
 

Only way Reich gets it is if he wins out and goes 13-3, and only way Kingsbury gets it is if he wins out and goes 12-4. Both of those less than 2% chance of happening. And if Tomlin goes 15-1 or 16-0, they are out anyways. 
 

Payton can also win if he finishes 13-3/14-2, especially with Taysom Hill as QB. He would need both Tomlin and Reid to finish 14-2 or worse though. 
 

So yeah, those are the only five candidates alive for COTY in my opinion. 
 

Edit: Actually Gruden and Flores both alive if they win out as well. Flores maybe even at 11-5 if no team reaches 15-1. 
 

Getting carried away here lol. 

Edited by BayRaider
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Mahomes is the MVP and I hope he wins it. He's someone that can finally break the MVP/Super Bowl curse of the last ~20 years. That being said, this race is ridiculous between him and Rodgers. Again, Mahomes is the MVP, I'm not contesting that whatsoever. I just think it's amazing what Mahomes and Rodgers are doing this year.

Yards
Mahomes (1st), Rodgers (5th)

Yards/G (Includes Dak)
Mahomes (2nd), Rodgers (6th)

TDs
Rodgers (2nd), Mahomes (3rd)

TD%
Rodgers (2nd), Mahomes (4th)

Passer Rating
Rodgers (1st), Mahomes (2nd)

QBR
Mahomes (1st), Rodgers (2nd)

INT%
Mahomes (1st), Rodgers (4th)

Yards/Attempt
Rodgers (4th), Mahomes (6th)

Sack%
Rodgers (3rd), Mahomes (4th)

Adjusted Yards/Attempt
Rodgers (1st), Mahomes (2nd)

Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt
Mahomes (1st), Rodgers (2nd)

I mean, Rodgers is on pace for 46 TD and 6 INT and he's likely not going to win MVP. That just shows how absurd Mahomes is.

Edited by beekay414
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1 hour ago, QBIso said:

Tomlin is COTY already. I feel like unless they lose their last 6 games, Tomlin is the choice. 

I don’t agree. He only locks it up automatically if 16-0 or 15-1. 
 

If he goes 14-2 and Reid goes 15-1, I go Reid. 
 

If he goes 14-2 and Brian Flores goes 11-5, I go Flores. 
 

If he goes 14-2 and Gruden or Kingsbury go 12-4 (win out), I’d give it to one of them. 
 

If he goes 14-2 and Reich goes 13-3 (wins out), I’d give it to Reich. 

If he goes 14-2 and Payton goes 13-3 with Taysom Hill starting the rest of the year, I give it to Payton.

All of that is unlikely though, and I’d say Tomlin is at least a 80% favorite at this point.

I still give him the award at 14-2, as long as none of the above happens.

Edited by BayRaider
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