The Tom Brady Thread

[CP3MVP]

3 hours ago, Archimedes said:

Ok, well let’s examine this further.

DYAR, I’m not as interested in, but let’s look at his actual DVOA value. Yes, he’s ranked 6th, but the numerical value for for that is 16.8%. Mahomes at 1 is 40.9%, and Rodgers at 2 is 35.6%. Philip Rivers is sitting at 12th at 12.2%. So his raw rank is high, but his actual value says his play has been much closer to a guy like Rivers, who’s basically been just ok this year, as opposed to Mahomes and Rodgers, both of whom have been elite. So that tracks with other advanced stats and the eye test.

PFF, by contrast, has his grade at a 89.0. They have Mahomes at 2, at 92.0, Rodgers at 1, at 93.1, and Rivers at 18th, at 75.6. So PFF would have people believe that his play has been much closer to Mahomes and Rodgers than Rivers... I’m sorry but that doesn’t remotely track, and factoring in drops doesn’t do it. PFF is basically screaming into the void that Brady is still playing an elite level, which he pretty clearly isn’t.

Brady has been ok this year. At 43, that’s damned impressive, but there’s no reason to make it more than it is.

Why aren’t you Interested  in DYAR if I might add?

And PFF doesn’t just look at your raw numbers, they look at now you acquire the stats. If you throw a terrible ball right to a defender and he just drops it, they’re not gonna give you a pass because you got lucky. Same thing if you throw a horrible ball that your WR makes a circus catch in triple coverage over.  Look at Mahomes game against the Pats, he played poorly but had a pretty passer rating. Brady mad a medicore passed rating against the panthers in week 2 but had a great overall game if you watched. Again, like 100 yards and 2 clear cut TDs dropped

Edited December 6, 2020 by CP3MVP

[Archimedes]

1 hour ago, CP3MVP said:

Why aren’t you Interested  in DYAR if I might add?

I think DYAR is the weakest of the advanced passing stats beyond passer rating, and it doesn’t add any extra value that the others don’t already give us.

1 hour ago, CP3MVP said:

And PFF doesn’t just look at your raw numbers, they look at now you acquire the stats. If you throw a terrible ball right to a defender and he just drops it, they’re not gonna give you a pass because you got lucky. Same thing if you throw a horrible ball that your WR makes a circus catch in triple coverage over.  Look at Mahomes game against the Pats, he played poorly but had a pretty passer rating. Brady mad a medicore passed rating against the panthers in week 2 but had a great overall game if you watched. Again, like 100 yards and 2 clear cut TDs dropped

Passer rating doesn’t always tell us everything about qb play, but we have plenty of other metrics to help fill in the gaps: DVOA, QBR, EPA+CPOE, Elo rating, ANY/A... All of these stats agree that Brady’s play has been somewhere a bit above average this year. And yet PFF has somehow found elite play from Brady that’s mysteriously not showing up in ANY of the other numbers. 2 dropped TD passes and 100 extra yards in 1 game is not going to cut it, and that’s also assuming Brady doesn’t ever get bailed out by his receivers. I get that PFF doesn’t look at raw numbers, I’m saying whatever methodology they’re using to grade Brady’s qb play this year is terrible.

[Hunter2_1]

17 hours ago, GSUeagles14 said:

context matters man, and hes had the deck stacked in his favor as much as any qb in recent history. ANd thats not only true when it comes to players, but play calling as well, like I doubt the Bucs told him "all we care about is you proving a point to the pats so run your stats up",   but Arians hasnt hidden the fact that Brady has a bigger hand in play calling than he apparently would like, and they are throwing early and often in goal to go opportunities. All that to say its been a friend system to putting up nice TD/yardage totals. But if thats all you look at WInston is a franchise QB.

 

Now Brady is infinitely better as a QB than Winston, but the production isnt that impressive when you include context. He hasnt played bad, but hes hasnt really been a top 10 QB either. Hes clearly aged, and at times he just doesnt look good. Overall hes been a slightly above average QB id say, at age 43 thats pretty darn impressive. 

I agree with all that.

I'm not saying he's been great or anything, I just don't think anyone being objective can say he's bad or 'playing in the sewer'. That's just blind hatred.

Tom's close to being done, but I think he's doing OK for one last year (maybe)

[Hunter2_1]

17 hours ago, Saint_James said:

 

I called Tampa Bay a sewer....I didn't say what you are saying.  Reading comprehension much? 

Yep, missread. I apologize. 

Although the next think I disagree with is somehow this season is crumpling his legacy. I mean even if you switched the TDs and Ints round and he'd thrown 26 interceptions this season, it doesn't take away from anything he's done in the past. 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Hunter2_1

[Hunter2_1]

19 hours ago, rich homie said:

To be more accurate, when you look at the efficiency he's

25th in completion percentage

9th in touchdown percentage

19th in interception percentage

23rd in yards per attempt

20th in adjusted ypa

23rd in yards per completion

15th in passer rating

20th in net yards gained per attempt

16th in adjusted yards per attempt

The reason he is so high in volume stats is because he has thrown for 474 attempts, which is 43 more attempts than the guy at #2 (Roethlisberger).

Ergh, looks bad when you lay them stats out. (How is he 16th in adjusted YPA, but...20th in adjusted YPA?)

Still, I maintain that he's not 'bad' now. He should be doing better with those weapons and coupled with the fact that his arm hasn't changed hardly any. There are genuinely other factors behind it (for example bad play calling and being obsessed, as a team, with run on 1st down then 30+ yard pass on 2nd). But I think he's better than he was last year even taking weapons into account, and if ranking I'd probably go 9-14 range or something. 

[Saint_James]

21 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Yep, missread. I apologize. 

Although the next think I disagree with is somehow this season is crumpling his legacy. I mean even if you switched the TDs and Ints round and he'd thrown 26 interceptions this season, it doesn't take away from anything he's done in the past. 

 

No problem.  And look it seems like the temperature is turned way up in here on this topic.  I'm not trying to be inflammatory, I just don't think Tom Brady is as great at quarterback as everyone tells us.   It's not personal. 

[jofos]

Interesting stat, 11 of Brady's 28 TD passes this year are 5 yards or less. Last year he only threw two TD passes 5 yards are less.

[Apparition]

17 minutes ago, jofos said:

Interesting stat, 11 of Brady's 28 TD passes this year are 5 yards or less. Last year he only threw two TD passes 5 yards are less.

Mike Evans, Gronk and Cam Brate versus... uh... Ryan Izzo? Brady threw 5 TDs to James White last year and 6 to Edelman. It was a pretty bleak situation. 

[jofos]

Just now, Starless said:

Mike Evans, Gronk and Cam Brate versus... uh... Ryan Izzo? Brady threw 5 TDs to James White last year and 6 to Edelman. It was a pretty bleak situation. 

Not saying its bad or anything just think its interesting that the Patriots very seldom throw the ball inside the five.

[ChazStandard]

4 hours ago, jofos said:

Not saying its bad or anything just think its interesting that the Patriots very seldom throw the ball inside the five.

This is true, from BJGE to Ridley to Blount the Pats had a succession of bruising TD vultures. I don't remember the exact stats, but the Patriots during Brady's tenure were regularly ranked top 5 in rushing TDs, but barely top 16 in rushing yards.

[jofos]

1 minute ago, ChazStandard said:

This is true, from BJGE to Ridley to Blount the Pats had a succession of bruising TD vultures. I don't remember the exact stats, but the Patriots during Brady's tenure were regularly ranked top 5 in rushing TDs, but barely top 16 in rushing yards.

Blount had 18 TDs in 2016 lol 

[Hunter2_1]

9 hours ago, jofos said:

Not saying its bad or anything just think its interesting that the Patriots very seldom throw the ball inside the five.

I need the DVD of all of Gronk's TDs. Looking back, even though I knew he was special, I STILL took him for granted. It's generally hard to score when you get into RZ, but his TD numbers are obscene. Want to go back and see how Gronk got those TDs.

[ChazStandard]

5 hours ago, jofos said:

Blount had 18 TDs in 2016 lol 

In 2011, Lawfirm had 11 while only having 600 yards rushing. The Patriots had the 3rd highest number of rushing TDs, but was only 20th in yards.

 

1 hour ago, Hunter2_1 said:

I need the DVD of all of Gronk's TDs. Looking back, even though I knew he was special, I STILL took him for granted. It's generally hard to score when you get into RZ, but his TD numbers are obscene. Want to go back and see how Gronk got those TDs.

If the defender played off him Gronk would run a slant and box him out. If the defender played up and tried to jump the slant, he'd turn to the back corner of the EZ and Brady would put it up where only Gronk would get it. If the defender just said "Eff it", and tackled, held and/or attacked Gronk with a machete, the refs wouldn't call it and we'd lose the game.

[Hunter2_1]

1 hour ago, ChazStandard said:

In 2011, Lawfirm had 11 while only having 600 yards rushing. The Patriots had the 3rd highest number of rushing TDs, but was only 20th in yards.

 

If the defender played off him Gronk would run a slant and box him out. If the defender played up and tried to jump the slant, he'd turn to the back corner of the EZ and Brady would put it up where only Gronk would get it. If the defender just said "Eff it", and tackled, held and/or attacked Gronk with a machete, the refs wouldn't call it and we'd lose the game.

So, impossible to legally stop. No wonder his numbers are like that.

[ILoveTheVikings]

Tommy boy with a historic performance. See ya in the play offs.

Shout out to Antoine Winfield jr. and Tyler Johnson@!