Raiders Offense Thread 2.0:

[drfrey13]

More teams win because of their QBs than teams that win in spite of their QBs.  It is the nature of the position because it controls so much of the game.  The below average QBs mentioned that won SBs had amazing defenses.  

2000 Ravens beat the Giants with defense and special teams 14-7 without counting field goals

2001 Bucs tie us 21-21 with pick 6's

2013 Flacco had an great run in the playoffs and still had a top ten defense

That is 3 out of the past 20 years so it is clearly not the norm.

[NYRaider]

23 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Yep. And I made that claim without having to pretend that a league MVP award means he's the greatest QB to grace our screens. 

[NYRaider]

32 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Yep. And I made that claim without having to pretend that a league MVP award means he's the greatest QB to grace our screens. 

Cam Newton won one. Nobody is calling him a great QB or claiming he's a better QB than, say, Philip Rivers who never won one, or even Justin Herbert or Tua who came in with hype but (obviously) also don't have MVP's because they haven't even started a full season. 

I'll giive you this, you're fantastic at taking hype trains and pretending that it's the best thing ever. Linda Lovelace would be jealous, so you should take pride in that. But your "takes" rarely transcend a very simplistic troll-like stream of one liners and a full throated guarantees that you are correct and context or facts be damned. Given your routine lack of explanation and inability to string together a reasonable or even decently researched argument without throwing a mini tantrum and never actually answering a question when challenged, I 100% stand by my opinion that you're "that clueless" and @Frankie2Gunz doesn't deserve to have his time wasted by a flamer troll on a football forum. 

Lamar Jackson (29-7 record): 6,972 yards (64.2 comp%), 65 TD, 17 INT, 102.5 passer rating

Jalen Hurts (1-2 record): 989 yards (54.7 comp%), 6 TD, 3 INT, 85.7 passer rating

Lamar could only ever wish to be as good as Hurts though... That may be the worst take in this history of this board and that's saying a lot. 

[SilverNBlackFan]

8 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I've been saying this for a while now, we're like the Chiefs with Smith, good offensive pieces with a game managing QB. Get a real, dynamic playmaker at QB and our offense probably takes a huge step up. Which is why I'd be all in on moving up to draft someone like Wilson or Fields. 

Yeah, Carr's stats this year are almost identical to Alex Smith's in 2017, the year before he was replaced. If @Frankie2Gunz were a chief fan, he'd probably have been arguing for Smith as a "building block QB" 🙄.

Both good years by good solid QBs. But nowhere near elite. Not dynamic. Being simply good is not enough when your team's whole indentity is as an offensive led team, which we are. 

We are in purgatory with Carr. It's not all his fault, but it's the truth. I'm sick of these 6-8 win years, constant off-season discussions about how Carr doesn't have enough help. Now it's just fix the defense...by the time we fix the defense Carr's deal is going to be up and i would guarantee he's going to want to break the bank again. I think Carr is good player that would probably be better off on a better built, more well rounded team. We aren't that right now. 

I don't know a way out of this cycle. But right now, we are the AFCs version of the Lions with Stafford. Except Stafford does have a few playoff appearances under his belt. Man just look at the AFC. A bunch of young, up and coming QBs. Burrow, Herbert, Jackson, Watson, Allen, even Mayfield has improved. Lawrence, and Fields/Wilson will most likely be in the AFC, as well. Meanwhile Carr is 30 and has never played well in December.

[jimkelly02]

On a new topic.... 

What do we do about WR?

I think there’s zero chance Tyrell Williams comes back.  I don’t think even restructuring his deal is an option, he deleted all Reference to the Raiders on his social media as soon as he went on IR.  That signals to me he was told (or himself decided) He’s done with us.

Agholor had a really good season: 47 catches on 78 targets (60.3% catch rate) for 839 yds (17.9yds/rec) and 8 TD. I think most of us want him back.  But what is he worth paying?  I think the market fit that production is 9-11M.  I’d be much more comfortable at 7-8M.  

I was one of Agholor biggest supporters at his signing.... but now I’m uncertain if he can continue this level of production.  I’m afraid he could regress a bit, especially with Ruggs and Edwards (hopefully) being used more next year.

I think it’s pretty much obvious Zay Jones won’t be retained.  That leaves us with Ruggs, Edwards, and Renfrow.  We’ll need to retain or acquire 3 more WRs.

[Frankie2Gunz]

1 hour ago, SilverNBlackFan said:

Yeah, Carr's stats this year are almost identical to Alex Smith's in 2017, the year before he was replaced. If @Frankie2Gunz were a chief fan, he'd probably have been arguing for Smith as a "building block QB" 🙄.

Both good years by good solid QBs. But nowhere near elite. Not dynamic. Being simply good is not enough when your team's whole indentity is as an offensive led team, which we are. 

We are in purgatory with Carr. It's not all his fault, but it's the truth. I'm sick of these 6-8 win years, constant off-season discussions about how Carr doesn't have enough help. Now it's just fix the defense...by the time we fix the defense Carr's deal is going to be up and i would guarantee he's going to want to break the bank again. I think Carr is good player that would probably be better off on a better built, more well rounded team. We aren't that right now. 

I don't know a way out of this cycle. But right now, we are the AFCs version of the Lions with Stafford. Except Stafford does have a few playoff appearances under his belt. Man just look at the AFC. A bunch of young, up and coming QBs. Burrow, Herbert, Jackson, Watson, Allen, even Mayfield has improved. Lawrence, and Fields/Wilson will most likely be in the AFC, as well. Meanwhile Carr is 30 and has never played well in December.

Is it possible to improve our QB position, sure there is always room for improvement but is it worth the risk of moving on from Carr?  The answer is no.  

The percentage that we can draft a QB who will play better than Carr over the next 6 seasons is small in accordance with the percentage that player will turn out to be a downgrade.    Look at the number of 1st round QB's over the last 10 years who have been big time busts, it far outweighs the number of QB's who are clearly better players than Carr.

Do you even realize how catastrophic of a mistake moving on from Carr is and drafting a Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Blake Bortals, Johnny Football is...  Everyone wants the shiny new toy and thinks that moving on from Carr will fix this teams problems.  I would be all for drafting a 21 year old Russell Wilson if there is a guarantee that is the player I'm getting but reality doesn't work like that. The bottom line is that are 100 Blake Bortals to every one of Russell Wilson. 

I'll ask you to compile a list of building block QB's and see where Carr comes in.  The risk of trying to upgrade and moving on from a top 10 building block QB and missing is way too great for my tastes and would be a catastrophic mistake if that QB turns out to be a bust...  

Edited January 3, 2021 by Frankie2Gunz

[Frankie2Gunz]

19 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

On a new topic.... 

What do we do about WR?

I think there’s zero chance Tyrell Williams comes back.  I don’t think even restructuring his deal is an option, he deleted all Reference to the Raiders on his social media as soon as he went on IR.  That signals to me he was told (or himself decided) He’s done with us.

Agholor had a really good season: 47 catches on 78 targets (60.3% catch rate) for 839 yds (17.9yds/rec) and 8 TD. I think most of us want him back.  But what is he worth paying?  I think the market fit that production is 9-11M.  I’d be much more comfortable at 7-8M.  

I was one of Agholor biggest supporters at his signing.... but now I’m uncertain if he can continue this level of production.  I’m afraid he could regress a bit, especially with Ruggs and Edwards (hopefully) being used more next year.

I think it’s pretty much obvious Zay Jones won’t be retained.  That leaves us with Ruggs, Edwards, and Renfrow.  We’ll need to retain or acquire 3 more WRs.

100 percent WIlliams is gone.

I agree with your assessment of NA.  I would be comfortable in the 7 to 8 range but I think you're right that he can get more.  He has had a good year and is still young, I hope we can retain him.  We have too few players who are playing well to not try to retain the ones who are.  

We need to sign a big, physical, reception hog WR who thrives in the RZ.  Someone mentioned Mike Evans earlier, if we could land an Evans type, that would open this O way up.  I like Golliday and Robinson but doubt they make it to FA and if they do they will command 20+ per year.  That being said and looking the remaining FA WR's I would kick the tires on Juju for 12 per year.  I think he would be a good fit in this O and is only 24.  

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Frankie2Gunz

[Frankie2Gunz]

I'm bored so I made a list of 1st round QB's from 2010-2018.  I will put the Qb's in one column that I would take over Carr and in the other column QB's I would not take over Carr.

Not Take:

Bradford, Tebow, Newton, Locker, Gabbbert, Ponder, RG3, Weeden, Manzel, Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson, Haskins, Bortles, Manuel, Bridgewater, Tannehill, Winston, Mariota, Goff, Wentz, Trubiski, Rosen, Jones

Would take: Luck, Mahomes, Watson, Allen*, Murray*.  It's too early to tell from either Allen or Murray as their sample size is still too small.  Over a 9 year span there are 3 sure fire better 1st round QB's than Carr and a lot of terrible ones.  

You guys always point out, "well look at Mahomes, we could get that".  You clearly see that it's not that easy and the risk of drafting a downgrade far outweighs an upgrade. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Frankie2Gunz

[jimkelly02]

1 hour ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

100 percent WIlliams is gone.

I agree with your assessment of NA.  I would be comfortable in the 7 to 8 range but I think you're right that he can get more.  He has had a good year and is still young, I hope we can retain him.  We have too few players who are playing well to not try to retain the ones who are.  

We need to sign a big, physical, reception hog WR who thrives in the RZ.  Someone mentioned Mike Evans earlier, if we could land an Evans type, that would open this O way up.  I like Golliday and Robinson but doubt they make it to FA and if they do they will command 20+ per year.  That being said and looking the remaining FA WR's I would kick the tires on Juju for 12 per year.  I think he would be a good fit in this O and is only 24.  

 

Unfortunately Robinson and Golliday will be too expensive for us.  I’d love a big body, high volume WR but I don’t see us being able to find and afford one.  
 

what’s the deal with JuJu this year?  He had a down year last year but he had BigBen out and guys like Duck Devlin throwing to him so I’d easily write that year off.  But this year he has 91 catches but averages only 8.4yds a catch.  He has no games with 100 or more yards.  Look at his game to game stats.... is bizzare:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitJu00.htm
 

there’s Games with 3,4,7,8 catches and only 3-4.5 yards per catch?   That’s crazy !

[Frankie2Gunz]

21 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

Unfortunately Robinson and Golliday will be too expensive for us.  I’d love a big body, high volume WR but I don’t see us being able to find and afford one.  
 

what’s the deal with JuJu this year?  He had a down year last year but he had BigBen out and guys like Duck Devlin throwing to him so I’d easily write that year off.  But this year he has 91 catches but averages only 8.4yds a catch.  He has no games with 100 or more yards.  Look at his game to game stats.... is bizzare:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitJu00.htm
 

there’s Games with 3,4,7,8 catches and only 3-4.5 yards per catch?   That’s crazy !

That is a bit odd, I haven't watched enough of his games to know what the issues are but he has clearly fallen out of favor in Pit.

I also agree that 20M per season for any WR is excessive and I would not sign either of those guys in that range. 

Is Juju a proven YOY elite stud, no but he is only 24 and has shown that he can be a high volume WR and thrive in the RZ. I would feel better taking a shot with juju , whose prime years are ahead of him at 12 and paring him with another 8 million dollar player rather than Golliday or Robinson for 20.  

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Frankie2Gunz

[Humble_Beast]

Juju is slow. He is the worst player of Dionte Johnson, Claypool and Juju. He lacks the speed to go deep, so Steelers hit him on underneath routes. Defenses can’t focus on him because Steelers have other treats on the field. I guess he is a good 2/3 WR but he is going get overpaid because of potential. 

[Frankie2Gunz]

52 minutes ago, Humble_Beast said:

Juju is slow. He is the worst player of Dionte Johnson, Claypool and Juju. He lacks the speed to go deep, so Steelers hit him on underneath routes. Defenses can’t focus on him because Steelers have other treats on the field. I guess he is a good 2/3 WR but he is going get overpaid because of potential. 

He's a 4.5 guy which is average and had the same 40 time as Dieonte Johnson. 

We don't need this guy to have elite speed, we need someone who can do well over the middle, in traffic and be a threat in the RZ.  Juju is physical has shown he can be a threat in the RZ and has upside potential at only 24.  For 12 million I would take a shot at him.

He clearly has fallen out of favor in Pit which effects his numbers and that could play well for a team that lands him as they will get him on a discount. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Frankie2Gunz

[MrOaktown_56]

Are we really comparing Carr to Alex Smith? He's close enough to the league lead in passer rating that if you account for the deflection/drop interceptions and add the dropped TD's, he's right there in nearly every category.

We have never had a complete football team that plays defense/complimentary football like Kansas City in the last 10 years +/

Like if you wanted him gone in 2019, I understand but we were 11th in scoring and 7th in points per drive this year.

9 of the 10 teams above us in scoring made the playoffs. The defense was just so historically bad that we couldn't overcome it. The only reason it didn't look worse was because of clock control/long offensive drives and less 3 and outs.

We can get rid of Carr, but unless we can land an elite qb prospect, all we can hope for is comparable success. Which in Gruden's offense is actually not super likely.

I think Gruden could benefit from a qb with very good mobility, but those guys are hard to get. If we can get one, that COULD help us be even better on offense.

But why invest resources into qb right now when we can build a defense. Or at least try to. Especially in the short term, no reason not to continue with Carr until a tantalizing elite option presents itself (very unlikely right now) and build a respectable defense.

If we can get a defense that is even average-ish next year (crazier things have happened), we will be in the playoffs.

Next year's schedule is not nearly as bad.

 

[Frankie2Gunz]

7 hours ago, Nightmare said:

I always wondered why it’s Trashbinski instead of Trashbisky.

He's like a trash bin.  Complete garbage.

[Frankie2Gunz]

20 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Are we really comparing Carr to Alex Smith? He's close enough to the league lead in passer rating that if you account for the deflection/drop interceptions and add the dropped TD's, he's right there in nearly every category.

We have never had a complete football team that plays defense/complimentary football like Kansas City in the last 10 years +/

Like if you wanted him gone in 2019, I understand but we were 11th in scoring and 7th in points per drive this year.

9 of the 10 teams above us in scoring made the playoffs. The defense was just so historically bad that we couldn't overcome it. The only reason it didn't look worse was because of clock control/long offensive drives and less 3 and outs.

We can get rid of Carr, but unless we can land an elite qb prospect, all we can hope for is comparable success. Which in Gruden's offense is actually not super likely.

I think Gruden could benefit from a qb with very good mobility, but those guys are hard to get. If we can get one, that COULD help us be even better on offense.

But why invest resources into qb right now when we can build a defense. Or at least try to. Especially in the short term, no reason not to continue with Carr until a tantalizing elite option presents itself (very unlikely right now) and build a respectable defense.

If we can get a defense that is even average-ish next year (crazier things have happened), we will be in the playoffs.

Next year's schedule is not nearly as bad.

 

I agree. Build a D that is at least middle of the road and this is a playoff team.  It's just sad that we have such little talent on D after investing so much in it over the last few years.  Many wasted draft picks and FA busts.  

Like I have said in other posts generating a pass rush form up the middle is critical.  If Williams hits the FA market we need to offer him at least 18 per season.  That could provide the biggest boost to this D.  I would also not be opposed to adding another interior DL through the draft in the 3rd or 4th.    

If we can sign LW and hit on a dominant edge rusher we could have a significant jump in production.