Raiders Offense Thread 2.0:

[MrOaktown_56]

1 hour ago, Turnobili said:

edwards caught 11 passes all season, and only 2 that i can even remember (the one TD, and one catch over the middle against NO). i liked him out of the draft but im not going to pretend that he's shown much at the NFL level to give me confidence. hopefully a full offseason program gives him (and ruggs) a jolt

You don’t remember the 30+ yard Patriots catch where he juked 2 guys? I thought it was pretty impressive.

[NYRaider]

6 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

The difference between Ruggs and Jefferson right now is that Ruggs can reach that level and Jefferson already has.  Both Ruggs and Jefferson are close in production per target but can Ruggs maintain that level if we rely on him that much?  I believe last year Ruggs biggest problems were Gruden and chemistry with Carr.  I still have high hopes for him but would be surprised if he ever matches the yardage that Jefferson had last year.  Call me crazy but I would not mind drafting Terrance Marshall if he makes it to the 2nd.

Will Jefferson be able to sustain his production? In the last decade there have only been 9 rookie WR's to go for 1,000+ yards. He had the second most receiving yards for a rookie in NFL history with 1,400. For comparison with other HOF WR that put up 1,400+ yards, Julio Jones has done it 5 times in his career, Antonio Brown has done it 4 times in his career, Randy Moss did it 4 times, Marvin Harrison did it 3 times, and Jerry Rice did it 6 times. 

So unless Jefferson is one of the greatest WR to ever play the game it's unlikely he'll continue to produce at the same level going forward. 

Will Ruggs ever be a high volume catch player? I'm not sure. But we've seen other WR's with similar skill sets such as Desean Jackson, Brandin Cooks, and Tyreek Hill consistently put up 1,000+ yards without needing a ton of targets/catches. 

Davante Adams is considered one of the best WR's in the league and has never had 1,400+ yards in a season. So I wouldn't be shocked if Ruggs never hits that thresh hold either, but that's not an easy thresh hold to hit for any WR. 

Going WR early would be a mistake, imo. Waller is a #1 target for us, Brown/Snead have produced in the past, Renfrow is one of the most reliable slot guys in the league, and we just invested in Ruggs/Edwards. 

If Ruggs/Edwards had trouble learning the offense, why would another rookie WR be able to come in and do it?

[drfrey13]

38 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Will Jefferson be able to sustain his production? In the last decade there have only been 9 rookie WR's to go for 1,000+ yards. He had the second most receiving yards for a rookie in NFL history with 1,400. For comparison with other HOF WR that put up 1,400+ yards, Julio Jones has done it 5 times in his career, Antonio Brown has done it 4 times in his career, Randy Moss did it 4 times, Marvin Harrison did it 3 times, and Jerry Rice did it 6 times. 

So unless Jefferson is one of the greatest WR to ever play the game it's unlikely he'll continue to produce at the same level going forward. 

Will Ruggs ever be a high volume catch player? I'm not sure. But we've seen other WR's with similar skill sets such as Desean Jackson, Brandin Cooks, and Tyreek Hill consistently put up 1,000+ yards without needing a ton of targets/catches. 

Davante Adams is considered one of the best WR's in the league and has never had 1,400+ yards in a season. So I wouldn't be shocked if Ruggs never hits that thresh hold either, but that's not an easy thresh hold to hit for any WR. 

Going WR early would be a mistake, imo. Waller is a #1 target for us, Brown/Snead have produced in the past, Renfrow is one of the most reliable slot guys in the league, and we just invested in Ruggs/Edwards. 

If Ruggs/Edwards had trouble learning the offense, why would another rookie WR be able to come in and do it?

I do not think 1400 is what Jefferson will hit every year.  Just saying he has proved that he can.  I think he stays in the 800-1200 range through the rest of his career which is pretty good.  If Ruggs reaches the level of Jackson, Cooks, and Hill I will be happy.  I think we have bigger needs than WR but Marshall would do a lot to fix our red-zone issues and can be a #1 WR.  I am very happy we have Waller but unless Ruggs turns into Hill we still need a #1 WR.  If TW could have stayed healthy we would look good right now and I think Marshall would have the same impact TW had when he was on the field.

[NYRaider]

2 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

I do not think 1400 is what Jefferson will hit every year.  Just saying he has proved that he can.  I think he stays in the 800-1200 range through the rest of his career which is pretty good.  If Ruggs reaches the level of Jackson, Cooks, and Hill I will be happy.  I think we have bigger needs than WR but Marshall would do a lot to fix our red-zone issues and can be a #1 WR.  I am very happy we have Waller but unless Ruggs turns into Hill we still need a #1 WR.  If TW could have stayed healthy we would look good right now and I think Marshall would have the same impact TW had when he was on the field.

Waller is our #1 receiver. For the majority of TW's career he was a 40 catch/650 yard WR, nowhere near a #1.  

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

Waller is our #1 receiver. For the majority of TW's career he was a 40 catch/650 yard WR, nowhere near a #1.  

Pretending TW was ever supposed to be a #1 was one of the biggest bill of false goods Gruden and Co tried to sell us. 

He wasn't a #1 in San Diego. It required injury for him to even be their #2. 

 

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, ronjon1990 said:

Pretending TW was ever supposed to be a #1 was one of the biggest bill of false goods Gruden and Co tried to sell us. 

He wasn't a #1 in San Diego. It required injury for him to even be their #2. 

In fairness though we had just traded for AB so I think the plan was always for him to be a #2 but AB's departure forced him into a bigger role. 

[drfrey13]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

Waller is our #1 receiver. For the majority of TW's career he was a 40 catch/650 yard WR, nowhere near a #1.  

I did not say TW was our #1 receiver.  I said unless Ruggs turns into Hill we still need a #1 WR.  Not receiver but #1 WR.  If you want to look at Kelce and how KC functions with him as the top target you still have a WR that is top ten in the league.  Not saying we have a bad offense but if you want it to be special you can not have a top 2 TE to go along with a bunch of WRs getting 200-600 yards a year.  I see Marshall as our #1 WR because he would outproduce everyone else we have.  I know it is not our biggest need but do we have any WR you can say is going to break 1000 yards or a group of guys that you say they might or could?  Same with our DT situation.  Do we have anyone at UT that you can say is the starter or will play to a starters level?  No we have a group of guys that we are hoping one steps up.  We need a 3T, FS, and RT but if there is no one worth taking at those positions at pick #48, we can not trade out, and Terrance Marshall Jr. is still there I am making the pick.

[ronjon1990]

4 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Will Jefferson be able to sustain his production? In the last decade there have only been 9 rookie WR's to go for 1,000+ yards. He had the second most receiving yards for a rookie in NFL history with 1,400. For comparison with other HOF WR that put up 1,400+ yards, Julio Jones has done it 5 times in his career, Antonio Brown has done it 4 times in his career, Randy Moss did it 4 times, Marvin Harrison did it 3 times, and Jerry Rice did it 6 times. 

So unless Jefferson is one of the greatest WR to ever play the game it's unlikely he'll continue to produce at the same level going forward. 

Will Ruggs ever be a high volume catch player? I'm not sure. But we've seen other WR's with similar skill sets such as Desean Jackson, Brandin Cooks, and Tyreek Hill consistently put up 1,000+ yards without needing a ton of targets/catches. 

Davante Adams is considered one of the best WR's in the league and has never had 1,400+ yards in a season. So I wouldn't be shocked if Ruggs never hits that thresh hold either, but that's not an easy thresh hold to hit for any WR. 

Going WR early would be a mistake, imo. Waller is a #1 target for us, Brown/Snead have produced in the past, Renfrow is one of the most reliable slot guys in the league, and we just invested in Ruggs/Edwards. 

If Ruggs/Edwards had trouble learning the offense, why would another rookie WR be able to come in and do it?

To be fair, my criticism of Ruggs is that I find him to be a 1 trick speed demon. I don't think he'll ever be more than a deep threat, which is great, but is what it is. 

That being said, he'll probably ultimately go somewhere between 800-1000 yards per year depending on his targets. Low volume, high yards type. 

Going WR before day 3 would be a huge mistake. Ruggs, Renfrow, Edwards, and Brown are safe. Snead and Jones are going to fight for the 5th spot. 

Now, with Edwards and Ruggs both missing games last year and Brown's injury history, I could see us rolliing 6 deep on the 53 with another WR on the PS. If Brown goes downz we have a hole a big body needs to fill. So a day 3 or UDFA WR with some size could easily be a target late and only after other bigger needs get addressed, unless some major drop happens for a WR we like and other guys would be a clear reach, of course. 

 

[ronjon1990]

4 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

In fairness though we had just traded for AB so I think the plan was always for him to be a #2 but AB's departure forced him into a bigger role. 

Eh, when we signed him, I firmly believe they saw him as the #1. Getting Brown was just a "lucky" happenstance. 

Either way, Mr. Glass proved why him being anything more than a bit role guy was a pipe dream. 

[NYRaider]

Just now, drfrey13 said:

I know it is not our biggest need but do we have any WR you can say is going to break 1000 yards or a group of guys that you say they might or could?  

I think Ruggs and Edwards have the potential to be 1,000+ yard receivers. John Brown has already been a 1,000 yard WR and Willie Snead had 1,900 yards during two years with New Orleans. 

No one thought that Nelson Agholor would even make the roster when we signed him and he put up 900 yards for us last season.

I'm not sure why there's this narrative that you have to be a huge guy to be a #1 WR. 

There were 17 WR's that went for 1,000+ yards last season: Diggs (6'0" 190), Hopkins (6'1" 212), Jefferson (6'1" 200), Adams (6'1" 210), Ridley (6'1" 190), Metcalf (6'4" 230), Hill (5'8" 185), Robinson (6'2" 215), Moore (6'0" 200), Cooks (5'10" 180), McLaurin (6'0" 200), Cooper (6'1" 215), Anderson (6'3" 190), Brown (6'0" 225), Lockett (5'10" 180), and Evans (6'5" 230). 

12/16 of the WR's that went for 1,000+ were 6'1" or shorter and only 2/16 were 6'4" or taller and 2/16 were 6'2" and 6'3". 

[NYRaider]

6 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Eh, when we signed him, I firmly believe they saw him as the #1. Getting Brown was just a "lucky" happenstance. 

Either way, Mr. Glass proved why him being anything more than a bit role guy was a pipe dream. 

We traded for Brown before we signed Williams. 

[ronjon1990]

23 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

We traded for Brown before we signed Williams. 

Apologies. I was going by the date the deal was finalized, which coincided with Williams' signing. My mistake.

[NYRaider]

40 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

To be fair, my criticism of Ruggs is that I find him to be a 1 trick speed demon. I don't think he'll ever be more than a deep threat, which is great, but is what it is. 

I disagree. I think that was one of the biggest issues with how we used Ruggs last year. 

There's a chart of how much of each WR's production came from various routes. When you look at Ruggs production at Alabama it was pretty evenly distributed and arguably the most diversified of any of the WR's in the draft last year. 

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

I disagree. I think that was one of the biggest issues with how we used Ruggs last year. 

There's a chart of how much of each WR's production came from various routes. When you look at Ruggs production at Alabama it was pretty evenly distributed and arguably the most diversified of any of the WR's in the draft last year. 

NFL > Alabama any day though. 

On a more serious note, no, I agree, HOW he's used makes a difference. Unfortunately, none of us control Gruden''s offense and how he views guys. 

It's pretty clear that they envision Ruggs as a deep threat or screen guy who busts off big yards after the catch. Most of that is going to come from his skillset. I'm certainly not saying their vision of his skillset is the best one. Given them thinking Witten was more capable of snaps than Moreau and that settling for FGs would keep us in games warrants a ton of skepticism about their "vision". 

I should have clarified- my critique of him wasn't so much what I personally saw of him, rather how I thought our staff would envision using him. And I don't think there's a creative bone in our dinosaur offense brain trust. What we've got is a very efficient, but vanilla offense. If our offense was a QB, he'd be a game manager. Frankly, I think it's a testament to our core players our offense is even respectable. 

The downside of that is simple, imo: it's like a movie script. I 100% believe Gruden has his "roles" and he'll just plug X player into said role regardless of ability. Look at his QB history. He was always comfortable with lesser QB talent because he thought he could make them a star. He thinks he's Tarantino and can plug an A-lister into a bit role and make a success. If Gruden were a director, he'd cast Terry Crews as a wimpy teenager trying to learn gymnastics over creating a new role to exploit his strengths. Now, Tarantino could probably make that work. But Gruden isn't Tarantino. He's more like Eli Roth, who likes to fancy himself as a Tarantino-like director, but really just pumps out B-rate flicks that are more of a parody of what Tarantino can come up with, but manages to stay semi-relevant because of his name. 

It's not that I think Ruggs himself can't do plenty, I think Gruden and Co have a vision for him and will shoehorn him into a role that never maximizes his ability. And what they "see" is what they want and will not deviate from that. I've felt that way for a long time with Gruden, particularly during his "QB camps" where he'd get excited as heck about certain guys for certain systems. It's like he's the biggest fanboy of the "system" instead of the player. He's usually been pretty good at getting a lot out of seasoned vets who cut their chops in other systems and can adapt to new roles. For his own draftees, they don't have a history of adapting well. Some of that can be the NFL learning curve, yes, but I think a lot of it is them being unproven and unable to learn their "role" in Gruden''s vision.

Conversely, I don't think Gruden knows how to coach them up to that. He looks to FA and whatnot, sees a guy who can do this or that, and knows what they're capable of doing. He's actually pretty good at that part. But a draft pick isn't a known commodity, it's a mystery box. It's arguably easier to see what someone else is doing with a player already in the NFL than to see how a college player will do. And easier to cast them in a particular role because you know they can, just not at what level. With a guy like Ruggs, I believe there's that hangup. I don't believe Gruden cares what Ruggs CAN do, he cares more about Ruggs' ability to fill a prefabricated role in his offense. 

Again, look at his history with the most important position on an offense: QB. For all the hoopla about Gruden and his "offensive genius" persona, what even is a Gruden QB? Career underachiever? Efficient but never flashy? Turnover averse to the point of painfully conservative play? You know who fits that mold? Almost EVERY veteran QB in the NFL, because it's not about the player, but the system. They can be strong armed, mobile, tall, short, doesn't matter.

He doesn't have a type, he has their role. Sometimes, it works out. Usually, it doesn't. So for a guy like Ruggs, there's a vision they have for him independent of his ability. On paper, he has the ability to fulfill that role. But in reality is it the best way to utilize him? Who knows. Probably not. But it's unlikely to change as long as Gruden is around. 

Edited April 3, 2021 by ronjon1990

[drfrey13]

2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I think Ruggs and Edwards have the potential to be 1,000+ yard receivers. John Brown has already been a 1,000 yard WR and Willie Snead had 1,900 yards during two years with New Orleans. 

No one thought that Nelson Agholor would even make the roster when we signed him and he put up 900 yards for us last season.

I'm not sure why there's this narrative that you have to be a huge guy to be a #1 WR. 

There were 17 WR's that went for 1,000+ yards last season: Diggs (6'0" 190), Hopkins (6'1" 212), Jefferson (6'1" 200), Adams (6'1" 210), Ridley (6'1" 190), Metcalf (6'4" 230), Hill (5'8" 185), Robinson (6'2" 215), Moore (6'0" 200), Cooks (5'10" 180), McLaurin (6'0" 200), Cooper (6'1" 215), Anderson (6'3" 190), Brown (6'0" 225), Lockett (5'10" 180), and Evans (6'5" 230). 

12/16 of the WR's that went for 1,000+ were 6'1" or shorter and only 2/16 were 6'4" or taller and 2/16 were 6'2" and 6'3". 

I am not saying you need a big WR to have a 1000 yard WR.  What I am saying is I do not think we have a 1000 WR or a big body WR to be a red-zone threat.  Not we do have players that can develop into that or a couple vets that might reproduce what Agholor did.  I just do not think it is likely and those that do produce it will be because Carr has to throw to someone.  I believe Marshall if he goes to the right team will out produce all of our WRs.  One of those right teams would be Las Vegas.  The question is is he the right player for Las Vegas and that will come down to the how the draft falls.  If he is there at 48 the chances are very high that he is BPA by a lot.  I personally think he might be gone around our 1st round pick after he just timed as fast as Chase at the pro day.  He struggles a little with the high fastball but a 6'3" 200 lb WR running a 4.38 40 he is not going to last.