Why do OROY winners fizzle out so much more often than DROY winners?

[Apparition]

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/awards/ap-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-award.htm

Just over the last 20 years, we've seen Eddie Lacy, RGIII, Bradford, Harvin, Vince Young, Cadillac Williams and Anthony Thomas completely fall off the map by their 5th year in the league. Obviously injuries have played a role for a lot of them (Cadillac was an especially tragic example) but in most cases their rookie performance simply turns out to be fool's gold.

Now look at recent DROY winners.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/awards/ap-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-award.htm

Out of the last 20 years, only Shawne Merriman's career collapsed in short order, and that was due to a combination of injuries and PED abuse. The rest have all had at least a solid NFL career (all except Cushing and Bell made the pro bowl at least once after their rookie season), and roughly half the winners from 2000 to 2015 are on a Hall of Fame trajectory (Urlacher is already in). 

[TENINCH]

This is why I vote for Herbert winning the Rookie of The Year

[Daniel]

Because they give it to just QBs now.  And rookie success as a QB doesn't often translate well.

Or RBs, who already have short shelf lives as it is.

[EvilenFroggen]

I wonder if it’s because players on offense get “figured out.”  Defense is reactionary, and a lot of these OROYs are showing something new. Once the defense learns to react to the player, maybe they don’t have another facet of their game to turn to instead.

[ET80]

3 hours ago, Daniel said:

Because they give it to just QBs now.  And rookie success as a QB doesn't often translate well.

Or RBs, who already have short shelf lives as it is.

I gotta buy on this. On that list, I see a lot of RBs, a few QBs that had injury and/or attitude issues, and a WR with a hefty injury history along with attitude issues. 

Can't say much about the attitude issues... But the rest might be a result of injuries along with certain positions flaming out quicker than others.

[Malik]

DPOY is available for every position. If they actually attempted to included OL then they're be a much higher rate of success.

[iknowcool]

It isn't necessarily that they fizzle out - it's just easier to put up flashier numbers that pop up on the stat sheet on offense than it is on defense.  It's the main reason why QBs and RBs mainly win it, whereas anyone on the defense can win DROY (although a guy in the secondary definitely has to do more than someone in the front seven).  A RB is more likely to put up 1,000 rushing yards while not actually being a good running back than a defensive lineman is to put up 10 sacks and not be a good pass rusher.  At least in my opinion.  

A lot of the guys who won OROY didn't even have all that good of years, they just looked decent for a rookie.  Young and Bradford in particular.  But the standard for how a rookie QB is supposed to perform was a lot lower back then.  Generally it was expected for a rookie QB to be crap in Year 1, and if they weren't, then it was a big deal.  Heck, between 1990-2009, only 3 QBs won the award.  Between 2010-2019, 5 QBs have won.  So you get cases like Young and Bradford where they just were never that good to begin with, but they managed to have rookie seasons that were okay instead of terrible.  But, you know, it's kind of crazy Young won OROY anyway, even by those standards.  51.5 CMP%, 12 TDs to 13 INTs, 66.7 QB Rating... I guess there weren't any other offensive rookies that stood out other than MJD, and the Titans made the playoffs.

I don't think there is too big of a difference though.  For the most part the OROY winners seem to work out unless they get hurt.  Eddie Lacy either wore out or just stopped bothering to stay in shape.  His second season I felt was really good though.

[iknowcool]

11 minutes ago, Malik said:

DPOY is available for every position. If they actually attempted to included OL then they're be a much higher rate of success.

I wonder which offensive lineman would have won it over the years if they did.  

I remember Ryan Clady being incredible as a rookie, I think he could have won it over Matt Ryan.  Even though he has some Pro-Bowls and an All-Pro to his name, I still feel like he didn't live up to his rookie season.  There was Jake Long too that year, but Clady was better IMO.  

Not really sure about any other years.  I don't really remember Joe Thomas as a rookie, but I'm sure he was great.  Plus nobody was winning it over Adrian Peterson.

EDIT - Just looked it up, Clady actually finished 3rd in voting that year

Edited December 9, 2020 by iknowcool

[Apparition]

4 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

I wonder which offensive lineman would have won it over the years if they did.  

I remember Ryan Clady being incredible as a rookie, I think he could have won it over Matt Ryan.  Even though he has some Pro-Bowls and an All-Pro to his name, I still feel like he didn't live up to his rookie season.  There was Jake Long too that year, but Clady was better IMO.  

Not really sure about any other years.  I don't really remember Joe Thomas as a rookie, but I'm sure he was great.  Plus nobody was winning it over Adrian Peterson.

EDIT - Just looked it up, Clady actually finished 3rd in voting that year

D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold both deserved it over VY in '06. Maurkice Pouncey was a 2nd team all-pro as a rookie in 2010, so certainly better than Bradford. 

 

[QBIso]

It’s easier to scheme production offensively. Defensive players aren’t scheme-dependent 99.9% of the time. 
 

Offenses...and offensive players...get easier and easier to stop the more times you see them. 

[DontTazeMeBro]

RBs take a lot of punishment and often decline early. And for rookie QBs the bar is so ridiculously low.

[VanS]

On 12/9/2020 at 12:44 PM, Daniel said:

Because they give it to just QBs now.  And rookie success as a QB doesn't often translate well.

Or RBs, who already have short shelf lives as it is.

I think its more because scheme can make a guy look better than he is more easily on offense than defense.  After an off-season team will catch up to that scheme.  While defense is more about raw physical gifts and those don't get figured out. 

[VanS]

On 12/9/2020 at 4:13 PM, iknowcool said:

it's kind of crazy Young won OROY anyway, even by those standards.  51.5 CMP%, 12 TDs to 13 INTs, 66.7 QB Rating... I guess there weren't any other offensive rookies that stood out other than MJD, and the Titans made the playoffs.

No it wasn't crazy.  You neglected to include his rushing production which was a key element to his game.  VY was also a guy who played better than the box score suggested.  I actually lived in Tennessee at the time and watched all his games.  He turned around a team that was playing bad and led them to the playoffs.  He was incredibly clutch and had several amazing comeback victories.  The most noteworthy being the OT win in his hometown over the Texans.

At the time there was no debate over who should be OROY.  The consensus opinion was that Vince had a spectacular rookie season.

[iknowcool]

4 hours ago, VanS said:

At the time there was no debate over who should be OROY.  The consensus opinion was that Vince had a spectacular rookie season.

Even including his rushing totals, his season isn't impressive.  He put up worse numbers than Tim Tebow did in 2011. 

I'm not saying he wasn't the guy everyone thought was OROY.  I'm saying in the grand scheme of things, and especially when you look at what rookie QBs were doing from 2008-onwards, you wouldn't think a season like the one Young had was worth winning OROY.  Even at the time, I doubt he wins it if there was another skill position rookie standing out that year.  MJD was the only one, and he played for the small-market Jaguars and wasn't a top draft pick.

Edited December 11, 2020 by iknowcool

[43M]

Individually, offesive players are more reliant on players around them than defensive players.   If a defensive player is great, they can usually make their presence felt.    QBs absolutely need a lot of help from OLines and skill positions.   RBs are hugely dependent on OLine opening things up.    WRs need a QB who can consistently get them the ball.    Not that elite offensive talent cant make their presence felt, but they need more help.

And, as stated, offensive players...especially QBs, often become easier to stop the more you watch them.    True talents can overcome this...but alot of offensive talent cannot adapt once defenses figure out how to defend certain things the player thrives at.