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Defense Discussion [2017]

CentralFC

By CentralFC
in Green Bay Packers

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incognito_man

incognito_man

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

18th in DVOA

still think this is a top 10 defense with at least most of its important parts.

Has our defense play a single snap with every preferred starter yet (including Perry w/o his club)?

Daniels, Clark, Matthews, Perry, Martinez, Burnett, HHCD, King, House + pick your favorite next 2 among Thomas, Randall, Brice, Jones, Lowry, Adams, Biegel, Ryan

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squire12

squire12

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

still think this is a top 10 defense with at least most of its important parts.

Has our defense play a single snap with every preferred starter yet (including Perry w/o his club)?

Daniels, Clark, Matthews, Perry, Martinez, Burnett, HHCD, King, House + pick your favorite next 2 among Thomas, Randall, Brice, Jones, Lowry, Adams, Biegel, Ryan

Was week 1 close to that?  Looked good in that game, albeit against a trash OL vs Seattle at home

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Norm

Norm

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, TheOnlyThing said:

Vince Biegel a full go in practice today.

Would love to see what he might add to the pass rush sooner than later.

He's not gonna be anywhere near game shape. Rushing that will do little. Patience my friend 

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TheOnlyThing

TheOnlyThing

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, NormSizedMidget said:

He's not gonna be anywhere near game shape. Rushing that will do little. Patience my friend 

OK if it is too early to jump aboard the Biegel train, I'll get excited about the fact that House & King both practiced today and it is possible, just possible I say, that the Packers will have them both available on Sunday.

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TransientTexan

TransientTexan

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Posted
On 10/17/2017 at 9:21 AM, HorizontoZenith said:

Okay, does it account for which QB was playing?  Because Kolb was better that year than Skelton, and Skelton had 300+ yards against us for the Cardinals while Kolb was hurt.  Or Hasslebeck/Locker for the Titans?    Does it account for home/away games?  Because some teams are better at home.  It might have been good by that year's standards, but I wouldn't call it good by any other standards.  At least not towards the end of the year.  If I met you halfway and called it average, that would still be three bad years, three average years and only one good year.  With this year looking like it will be a bad year. 

I still don't think you can neglect the rest of our defense that year, either.  If your running game is bad, it's going to make your passing defense look better and vice versa.  It's one of the biggest reasons our pass defense last year ranked so low even before the injuries got really bad.  Teams couldn't run against us last year. 

2012 Run defense:
Gore had 112 yards in week 1 (7 yard average). 
Bears couldn't run, so Cutler threw under 150 with 4 interceptions.
Lynch ran for 98 yards.
Saints didn't try to run, so Brees had 446 yards and 3 TD in Green Bay. 
Brown had 84 yards (4.9 average), and Wayne had 212 receiving yards.  NOT a good pass defense.
Forsett averaged 6.7 yards per carry.
Rams averaged 4.5 yards per carry.
Jaguars couldn't run against us, so Blaine Gabbert had a career high 300+ yards, 1 TD, no INT.  For comparison, he had averaged 148 yards a game up to that point in his career and had never thrown for more than 260 in a game. 
Cardinals couldn't run against us, so John Skelton had 300 yards passing. 
Lions ran well against us. 
Giants ran all over us, and Eli had a good game passing, too. 
Peterson ran for over 200 yards against us, so why would Ponder throw for more than the 119 yards?
Lions ran for over 150 against us.
In the last game of the season, Peterson ran for 199 yards AND Ponder threw for 250+ yards and 3 touchdowns.

Most of the games we kept a QB low on passing yards were games (like twice against Vikings) where they ran all over us.  Why would you pass if you're running the ball that well? 

This is why I don't like DVOA.  Christian Ponder averaged 183 yards a game that year.  We kept him under his average, but is that so hard to do when he had passing totals of 58, 63 and 91 because Peterson was the MVP of the league that year? 

I forgot why I started arguing this honestly, but the reason I'm still arguing it is it's clear to me that late round picks aren't cutting it anymore with this defense.  Clinton-Dix was the highest pick and he's either having a down year or he overachieved last year and the year before.  Either the secondary needs an elite DB prospect in this draft, or we need an elite pass rusher in this draft.  The defense is at a tipping point right now I think, and one more bad offseason instead of a good offseason for our defense could send us into a Saints style spiral where our defense remains bad for years.  We kept Jay Cutler 90 yards under his average twice.  Is that an accomplishment worth factoring into DVOA?  It was Jay Cutler.  We had his number.  Not a number to be SUPER proud of having, and yet it really helped in DVOA.  For comparison, the good quarterbacks we played:

Brees - He had 123 yards OVER his season average against us. 
Luck - Had 90 yards OVER his season average against us.

Some bad quarterbacks, like Gabbert, had season games against us, too.  Gabbert had 140 yards over his season average against us.

So we kept Kaepernick, Cutler, Wilson, Schaub, Bradford, Stafford, Locker and Ponder under their season averages for yards a game.
We allowed Brees, Luck, Gabbert, Skelton and Eli Manning to go over their season averages against us.  Is that an accomplishment worthy of suggesting we were a good pass defense that year?  No.  DVOA doesn't account for things like that, which is why it's not a way to rationalize that defense being a good pass defense.  DVOA might work on an individual QB analysis to see if we played better on an individual level against individual quarterbacks, but it doesn't work over a whole season because when we couldn't stop the run, teams didn't pass against us and vice versa. 

 

Lol, you don't have to squirm to a different argument. We're talking pass defense. And yard/game averages mean nothing without the number of pass attempts. Teams have to pass more to try to keep pace with the GB offense, which will falsely inflate the total. 

2012: 

Total Opposing QB's held under their season QB rating: 10/17* games

Total Opposing QB's held under their season completion %: 12/17* games

Total Opposing QB's held under their season Yd/Att.: 8/17* games

*WC game vs. Min/Webb discarded due to no sample vs. other teams

2014:

Total Opposing QB's held under their season QB rating: 12/17* games

Total Opposing QB's held under their season completion %: 13/17* games

Total Opposing QB's held under their season Yd/Att.: 9/17* games

*Wk 5 game vs. Min/Ponder discarded due to no sample vs. other teams

2015:

Opposing QB's held under their season QB rating: 12/18 games

Opposing QB's held under their season completion %: 14/18 games

Opposing QB's held under their season Yd/Att.: 13/18 games

---------------------------

And I'm still waiting for you to list the 16 defenses better than GB in those years, using your own criteria. Without a baseline or frame of reference, your argument is akin to saying Atlanta is geographically farther from the ocean. "Far" in comparison to what? And if the "what" only constitutes 10% of existing cities, how fair of a statement is that?

 

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Norm

Norm

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Posted
59 minutes ago, TheOnlyThing said:

OK if it is too early to jump aboard the Biegel train, I'll get excited about the fact that House & King both practiced today and it is possible, just possible I say, that the Packers will have them both available on Sunday.

I just saw that too. Good news for sure.

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MacReady

MacReady

Posted
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35 minutes ago, TransientTexan said:

Lol, you don't have to squirm to a different argument. We're talking pass defense. And yard/game averages mean nothing without the number of pass attempts. Teams have to pass more to try to keep pace with the GB offense, which will falsely inflate the total. 

2012: 

Total Opposing QB's held under their season QB rating: 10/17* games

Total Opposing QB's held under their season completion %: 12/17* games

Total Opposing QB's held under their season Yd/Att.: 8/17* games

I've already acknowledged 2014 and 2015 were good/average pass defenses, so I don't know why you keep bringing those seasons up.  Also, I'm not "squirming" to a different argument.  I brought up the effect of a poor running game on the pass defense NUMBERS a long while back.  Believe it, don't believe it, but the old adage about lies, damn lies and something else is a saying for a reason.  The statistics of 2012 being a "good" pass defense doesn't make it a "good" pass defense. 

And I already said why we held teams under their QB rating, completion percentage and yd/att.  By your own stats, we held less than half of the teams under their average yards per attempt.  Why?  Because, like I said, teams ran against us, and they ran well against us.  So I don't know why you think your response proves me wrong about the 2012 season. 

Seattle, Chicago, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Denver, Miami, Arizona, Baltimore, Atlanta, Houston, Chargers, Giants, Jets, Rams, Patriots and Panthers.  I'm gonna say those 17 teams were better pass defenses than us that year.  mostly because they were all clearly better defenses than us that year because we allowed 26 points on the road that year and we were not a good defense, which was clear based on Kaepernick obliterating us in the playoffs, and our pass defense wasn't "good" because, as is always the case in the NFL, pass defense rankings lie when you are a bad defense overall.  If you want proof from this year...

The Bears, Chargers, Bengals and Jaguars?  All better pass defenses than the Seahawks  based on pass yards per game.  Saints, Colts, Jets... All better than the Seahawks based on interceptions this year. 

I've already admitted to being wrong about 2015 and 2014 pass defenses based on evidence and looking over the year.  How are you incapable of admitting that the 2012 defense, which gave up 300 yard games to Skelton and Gabbert, was a bad pass defense?  IT WAS A BAD PASS DEFENSE BECAUSE IT WAS A BAD DEFENSE PERIOD.

Just admit it because it wasn't a good pass defense and I'm sick of arguing this.  And if you're going to continue with that, "THey kept so and so under season averages..." You're going to have to tell me that, right now, the Bears, Chargers, Bengals, Saints, Colts and Jets are better than the Seahawks pass defense this year. 

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